Lion of the Blogosphere

Lion predicts Chris Christie to be Republican nominee in 2016

The prediction is based on the following logic:

(1) For starters, in my lifetime, the Republican presidential nominee has always been someone who was known nationally in the previous presidential election cycle. This seriously narrows down possible contenders for the likely nominee. Some unknown dark horse is not going to mysteriously appear to save the party.

(2) Marco Rubio may be the favored savior of the party by all of the Republican Party bigwigs, but there is one problem. Rubio has to actually win the support of primary voters. After seeing the guy speak on Tuesday, looking like a scared little kid reading a book report to the class for the first time, I realize that this guy simply lacks the gravitas to compete for this job.

(3) And thus we have Christie, the most charismatic Republican politician. His biggest downside is that he palled around with Obama right before the election, very likely costing Romney votes. On the other hand, this demonstrates that Christie does what’s good for himself rather than what’s good for the Republican Party. He’s not going to be scared away from seeking the highest office just because party bigwigs don’t want him.

(4) When there are actual Republican debates, Christie is going to chew up Rubio, spit him out, and then stomp on him.

(5) Christie’s location in New Jersey means he has access to big-money donors from the New York City area.

(6) Republican voters and even some Republican elites currently backing Rubio will come to realize that it’s Christie, not Rubio, who is most likely to win a presidential election. Christie can win over those blue collar white voters in rustbelt states like Ohio and Pennsylvania. Yes, Pennsylvania. Christie can win Pennsylvania for the Republicans.

Of course, this does not mean that Christie will win the general election if nominated. I do think the Republican Party is doomed and that George W. Bush was probably the last Republican president, but Christie certainly has the best shot of any likely Republican nominee.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 15, 2013 at 10:24 pm

Posted in Politics

20 Responses

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  1. This could be the first post of yours I completely agree with. Also worth noting that Christie’s wife worked on Wall Street, which will help with raising money.

    It’s really hard to think of any GOP candidate who could win a debate against Christie (with the possible exception of Newt, who I doubt will run again).

    DaveinHackensack

    February 15, 2013 at 10:37 pm

  2. Christie’s health might not stand up to the stress of next few years, just like Biden and Clinton.

    cesqy

    February 15, 2013 at 11:08 pm

    • No matter how hard they try, Biden and Clinton can’t make themselves get any younger. Christie can lose weight if he really wants to. If he knocked off 50 pounds his health would improve and he wouldn’t be so open to ridicule.

      Peter

      ironrailsironweights

      February 16, 2013 at 9:42 am

      • Chris Christie needs to get lap band surgery like NY Jets head coach Rex Ryan. Rex used to be huge. Now he looks great.

        skittles man

        February 16, 2013 at 3:16 pm

  3. 1. Christie is for gun control. A big non-starter for Republican primary voters in most states.

    2. Christie’s embrace of Obama turned off many Republicans. Republicans tend to have long memories for such things.

    3. Christie is too un-nice. This works in NJ but doesn’t work in the heartland. One outburst and he is done.

    4. You assume that Christie will remain popular in NJ in 4 years. This is not very likely.

    Rubio won’t be the nominee. He is peaking way too soon and has managed to turn off many conservatives.

    Dark horse? There is always place for one. There are 30 Republican governors out there. For example, a Midwestern governor like Walker, or Snyder, or Kasich. They are pretty well known so not exactly dark horses; they have real conservative achievements; and they are very working-class looking. Can’t paint them as out-of touch plutocrats. Now I don’t know if they want to run or how good they would be as candidates. I just point out possibilities beyond Rubio. Anyway, four years is a very long time.

    Galvani's Frog

    February 15, 2013 at 11:18 pm

    • Good points, but I have a hard time visualing Christie keeping cool and collected during debates; Biden’s weird, wide grins and chuckles will pale by comparison.

      markus

      February 16, 2013 at 12:12 am

      • sorry I meant to reply to the main post, not Galvani’s!

        markus

        February 16, 2013 at 12:12 am

  4. Chris Christi, in praising Obama after Hurricane Sandy, secured himself as an excellent local figure but a terrible national Republican. I have immense reservations about him – not the least of which is his stance on immigration. He has a lot to prove now.

    On the plus side, he is one of the best men out there for taking on massive, parasitic bureaucracies. He has an l established presence now, and I think the media has come to respect him and is increasingly overlooking his weight.

    He has a solid chance of winning, though I don’t necessarily trust him.

    Sid

    February 16, 2013 at 1:13 am

  5. Eh, I don’t think Christie cost Romney any votes. Romney wasn’t gonna win NY or NJ anyway.

    Gingrich was a better debater than Romney, but that didn’t matter because Romney was the darling of the GOP establishment. If Rubio is the darling next time, then it won’t matter if Christie is a better debater. The media will simply represent Christie as a mean-spirited motormouth weirdo, which they may well do anyway if they think Christie has the best chance to win and they want to shut him down.

    Tarl

    February 16, 2013 at 1:20 am

  6. Christie would get the highest percentage of the Black vote of any Republican since Nixon, probably. Maybe 35%.

    Scipio Africanus

    February 16, 2013 at 1:43 am

    • No Republican is going to get more than 10% of the black vote. No black Democrat is going to vote for a old white fat bully.

      superdestroyer

      February 16, 2013 at 10:31 am

  7. Christie was exciting enough in his gubernatorial run, I grant you; but policy problems aside, the guy is overweight, preening, and bilious. His convention speech was a waste of time. If you can clearly see the problems with the callow Rubio as a candidate, you should be cleareyed as well on Christie’s problems. I wouldn’t vote for him in a primary, and I doubt I’d show up for him in a general.

    Look, I still have my sad slice of respect for the technocratic/country club/ Ford-Bush I school of Republicans. Those guys seemed paternal and reasonable, and they helped guided the country through the Cold War. I don’t hold much against Bush I even now, even though I would’ve firmly opposed his Immigration Act, the Disabilities Act, etc.

    All the same, I think you’re too attracted to the spurious rationalism of socially liberal Republicans, whose attitudes make you feel somehow yummy on the inside, perhaps as an imagined corollary of gaining respectability for stances which you well know are not about to regain respectability any time shortly. Maybe if Mitch Daniels weren’t a cuckold, I might throw his name into the ring. As it is, it looks as if every Republican is going to go in for Amnesty, which means most of us will “apres moi, le deluge” the damned GOP. Who among them can claim to be a statesman? No, no: unless there’s some Mike Gravel figure we’ve forgotten about, all these “possibles” are nadas. The current scene is toast.

    Lucius Somesuch

    February 16, 2013 at 3:05 am

  8. Do Republicans think that Christie is still a Republican?

    After Sandy, Christie did what the voters of New Jersey wanted him to do, and he has a good chance of getting re-elected as a result. At this point though, Christie is a traitor to the Republican party, and you only have to look at the Hagel nomination to see how Republican treat traitors.

    mikeca

    February 16, 2013 at 3:25 am

  9. Thoughts on Paul Ryan?

    anon

    February 16, 2013 at 4:21 am

    • Ryan will be luck to hold onto his House seat. He could not get himself elected Senator in Wisconsin, let alone win as a Republican candidate in a political environment where the Republicans have zero chacne of winning at the national level.

      superdestroyer

      February 16, 2013 at 12:17 pm

  10. There is no way that Christie finishes in the top three in the Iowa caucuses or top two in New Hampshire primaries. People forget that the voters in Iowa have a lot more say on who will be president that talking heads in NYC>

    superdestroyer

    February 16, 2013 at 5:35 am

  11. People won’t vote for a fat guy who yells a lot and tells people to shut up. Outside of New York and New Jersey and the tea party, it is behavior that is frowned upon.

    S_McCoy The Winged Lion

    February 16, 2013 at 7:11 am

  12. Scott Walker is a possible dark horse candidate – he’s a governor, he’s beaten the unions, he’s won a bunch of elections all in a row in Wisconsin, and we all knew who he was before 2012.

    Anthony

    February 19, 2013 at 10:17 pm

  13. christie will be a good president, we need some one real and tough that will tell the american people not what we want to hear but need to hear.

    joey

    February 26, 2013 at 7:57 pm


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