Lion predicts Chris Christie to be Republican nominee in 2016
The prediction is based on the following logic:
(1) For starters, in my lifetime, the Republican presidential nominee has always been someone who was known nationally in the previous presidential election cycle. This seriously narrows down possible contenders for the likely nominee. Some unknown dark horse is not going to mysteriously appear to save the party.
(2) Marco Rubio may be the favored savior of the party by all of the Republican Party bigwigs, but there is one problem. Rubio has to actually win the support of primary voters. After seeing the guy speak on Tuesday, looking like a scared little kid reading a book report to the class for the first time, I realize that this guy simply lacks the gravitas to compete for this job.
(3) And thus we have Christie, the most charismatic Republican politician. His biggest downside is that he palled around with Obama right before the election, very likely costing Romney votes. On the other hand, this demonstrates that Christie does what’s good for himself rather than what’s good for the Republican Party. He’s not going to be scared away from seeking the highest office just because party bigwigs don’t want him.
(4) When there are actual Republican debates, Christie is going to chew up Rubio, spit him out, and then stomp on him.
(5) Christie’s location in New Jersey means he has access to big-money donors from the New York City area.
(6) Republican voters and even some Republican elites currently backing Rubio will come to realize that it’s Christie, not Rubio, who is most likely to win a presidential election. Christie can win over those blue collar white voters in rustbelt states like Ohio and Pennsylvania. Yes, Pennsylvania. Christie can win Pennsylvania for the Republicans.
Of course, this does not mean that Christie will win the general election if nominated. I do think the Republican Party is doomed and that George W. Bush was probably the last Republican president, but Christie certainly has the best shot of any likely Republican nominee.