Lion of the Blogosphere

Scott Walker will not win the 2016 Republican nomination

People keep talking about him in the comments.

He reminds me of Tim Pawlenty. Pawlenty was also a governor from a northern-midwest state who was well liked and respected by Republican-Party insiders and who could supposedly attract the votes of working-class white Democrats, but was social-conservative enough to be liked by the Christian Right.

But like Pawlenty, Scott Walker is unknown outside of hardcore politics circles. The history of Republican nominations shows that someone who is well known or even “next-in-line” always wins the Republican nomination. Pawlenty’s presidential campaign never even took off at all because he was just too boring. I once made the mistake of predicting that Pawlenty would win the Republican nomination, and I’ve learned from my mistakes.

Scott Walker, at best, is someone who might have a surprisingly strong showing in the 2016 primaries and then be next-in-line for 2020, assuming that the Republican nominee loses the general election.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

January 14, 2014 at EST am

Posted in Politics

37 Responses

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  1. Pawlenty’s problem is that he was supposedly a working-class kid who’d played hockey, yet on TV none of this came across; he seemed like a technocratic softie a la Dukakis.

    If Walker is better at sparring on TV then he has a chance.

    Fiddlesticks

    January 14, 2014 at EST am

  2. Scott Walker may be just as boring as Pawlenty, but he has the advantage of being hated by all the right people. Walker’s battle with the Democratic opposition in his state over the budget was a national news story for weeks, and it was won by Walker, both tactically and policy wise. The entire left hates him and in a way, did him a service by attacking and investigating him so much; it served as a vetting.

    Candidate wise, he is probably among the best of the compromise candidates. There are several candidates that are unacceptable to large segments of the party but Walker isn’t one of them.
    Sure, he’s bad on immigration, but they all are. There isn’t a single potential candidate who isn’t open borders, so it makes that issue a wash.

    Mike

    January 14, 2014 at EST am

    • Actually, Scott Brown voted against the DREAM Act, reiterated his opposition when he ran against Warren and came out against the Senate Amnesty bill this past summer (no one paid attention to it, but he did)

      He has decent credentials (Tufts and Boston College Law) and given his uber-prole roots, I think his IQ is a little better than his colleges, though he’s certainly not as smart as Romney or Clinton.

      Also, unlike Scott Walker, he is pro-choice.

      He is much more electable and better on the two most important issues (abortion and immigration).

      mike2

      January 15, 2014 at EST pm

      • I’ve also learned the lesson that pro-choice candidates can’t win the Republican primaries. The anti-abortion faction is too strong.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        January 15, 2014 at EST pm

      • If Scott Brown really is anti-amnesty, that would be a surprise, since liberal Republicans, along with most other Republicans, support “comprehensive immigration reform.” On the other hand, Mitt Romney was the most moderate of the Republican candidates in 2012 and he was the only one not to support amnesty.

        But Brown isn’t even close to being a national candidate for President. He couldn’t even hold his Senate seat and is fishing for another one in New Hampshire. If Brown wants campaign funds, he’ll have to be pro amnesty.

        Mike

        January 15, 2014 at EST pm

  3. Scott Walker does not have a college degree which is quite interesting.

    Shawn

    January 14, 2014 at EST am

    • Being unable to graduate from a not-very-difficult school after attending for four years shows lack of intelligence or an extreme dislike of learning.

      Can a college-dropout become President?

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      January 14, 2014 at EST am

      • He got a job for IBM. Will he try the Bill Gates argument?

        John Goldberg

        January 14, 2014 at EST am

      • Most who drop out of college do so because they can’t cut it academically, but not all. Bill Gates and Steve Jobs come to mind. Gates is certainly smart enough for the job, but I don’t think his temperament is suitable.

        Sgt. Joe Friday

        January 14, 2014 at EST am

      • Scott Walker is no Bill Gates.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        January 14, 2014 at EST pm

      • Lion, you’re a snob. A college degree in and of itself does not reflect intelligence or love of learning.
        A degree has virtually no meaning in and of itself. Unless it’s a degree that leads to a professional graduate degree. (Tightening/shortening the undergrad years would be a step in the right direction).

        I’ll take haberdasher Harry Truman over any goddamn lawyer.

        fakeemail

        January 14, 2014 at EST pm

      • THEORETICALLY people can be smart and not have a college degree, but in our society the elevates the importance of college above all other things, nearly all people who are smart enough to be properly considered college material do graduate from college. And putting in FOUR YEARS, but then dropping out just as you are close to graduating, and Walker didn’t quit to run Microsoft but rather quit for a low-level sales job at IBM, it’s likely indicative of some personal failing.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        January 14, 2014 at EST pm

      • Scott Walker outsmarted Madison’s entire professional left. They hit this guy early and hit him hard. We are talking about hundreds of people who do nothing more than trash business, republicans, educational innovation, and commerce for a living here. You think that’s not smart? That’s not a smart comment lotb.

        Mexican Drug Cartel

        January 14, 2014 at EST pm

      • While it’s true that a lot of people drop out of college because they were not “college material,” there are also a great number of people who either don’t go to college or drop out because they don’t have enough future time orientation to spend 4 years on a degree. Some of these are bright working class kids with high IQs who are impatient to earn a living. It’s a shame, but some can’t resist an immediate paycheck. If a person doesn’t go to college full time right out of high school it’s much harder to finish later because if you work full-time and go to school at night you have no time for anything else for several years. Also, some people have difficult situations at home and work right out of high school to be able to leave home sooner. I agree that almost anyone who has the ability to complete college should not pass up the chance to go full-time at age 18, but other factors often get in the way. Also, some of the most intellectual people I know are the type who will only study what they find interesting and it’s like pulling teeth to get them to do work in subjects they find pointless. This is an unfortunate trait, but many have it. I completed high school, college, and graduate school, but through a lot of my academic career was the classic “high potential, low achiever” I won’t tell you how low my SAT verbal score was for fear that you’ll accuse me of being retarded (although I corrected my vocabulary deficiency later on in life.)

        MaryK

        January 15, 2014 at EST pm

    • Not only will the U.S. not elect someone who does not have a college degree but I doubt that the U.S. would elect someone who only has a bachelors degree. Reagan is the last president with just a bachelors degree.

      Also, I doubt that a state university president will ever elect a state university graduate again. The only viable candidates for president are those who either went to an Ivy League for undergraduate and/or the Ivy League for graduate/law/professional graduate program. The top 10% who are the ones who donate money and run the media/corporate world/politics are not going to allow someone who has not play the credential game to be president.

      If the U.S. elects a college drop out or a state university graduate, then it is time to invest in gold, shot guns, and canned food because the populace will have just elected a crazed populist.

      superdestroyer

      January 14, 2014 at EST pm

  4. Conservatism INC will put up a lot of resistance to Huckabee, but he can overcome it, because the base is with him. Evangelicals will have to unite behind one candidate, and he’ll have to put a lot of effort into states like Florida and Ohio, but he can definitely do it.

    John Goldberg

    January 14, 2014 at EST am

  5. If a Republican has to be Ivy League than we are stuck with Huntsman, who went to Wharton, or Rand Paul, who went to Duke (close enough to Ivy). Even Jeb Bush has a fairly average educational pedigree (U of Texas), although the Bush name will probably trump Ivy.

    Petr Akuleyev

    January 14, 2014 at EST am

  6. The Wisconsin recall elections got national coverage that Pawlenty never got. During which, Walker got a lot of publicity for sticking it to Democratic interest groups, which Pawlenty never got.

    On the other hand, Republicans almost never nominate someone on their first run (which applied to Christie) and he’d have a lot of work to do.

    I don’t know enough about Walker to know if he really has what it takes to be competitive, but in the absence of an obvious nominee or a next-in-liner, I wouldn’t count it out.

    trumwill

    January 14, 2014 at EST pm

  7. Cudos to Lion , for getting the geography correct, which is above average for a New Yorker.
    Scott Walker has stood firm thuggish unions, biased judges, 100,000 person demonstrations. The man is tough.

    jz

    January 14, 2014 at EST pm

  8. Walker’s wife is way older than he is. He didn’t finish college but took job with IBM.

    GMR

    January 14, 2014 at EST pm

    • And the press will find a way to make an issue of how old his wife is, if it looks like he’s gaining traction. Probably something nasty, along the lines of whispering that he has “mommy issues.”

      Funny, isn’t it, how Democrats get a pass on this stuff? Jack Kennedy marries a 24 y/o woman when he’s 36, and he “has a glamorous young wife.” A Republican does that, he’s “creepy” or “afraid of strong women” or a “misogynist.”

      Sgt. Joe Friday

      January 14, 2014 at EST pm

      • And they made fun of George H.W. Bush because Barbara looked so old.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        January 14, 2014 at EST pm

      • His wife is also dumpy looking and dresses in dreadful midwestern wear:

        All the sassy gay fashion beetches will be all over her with snark.

        peterike

        January 14, 2014 at EST pm

      • “and dresses in dreadful midwestern wear”

        So does Christie’s wife. You’d expect a little more bling and fur from the garden state first lady.

        toomanyspiders

        January 16, 2014 at EST am

  9. Scott Walker’s face is noticeably asymmetrical. He’s also very religious.

    Mexican Drug Cartel

    January 14, 2014 at EST pm

  10. A lot of people who don’t finish college drop out when they’re able to obtain the same caliber of job they would’ve gotten even with the degree.

    Scott Walker is a perfect example of that. Within a few years of dropping out of college he was already serving in the Wisconsin state assembly. He achieved his goal.

    Camlost

    January 14, 2014 at EST pm

  11. Boring white male politicians could be exactly what people will be looking for in two years.

    Hamster of the Blogosphere

    January 14, 2014 at EST pm

  12. OK, then who’s “next in line” now?

    sestamibi

    January 14, 2014 at EST pm

  13. What a complete mediocrity–you might as well nominate me. I mean, holy crap, the guy was just a cube-dweller. Boring, bland, under-accomplished. (Obama gets a pass–magical negro juju.)

    I do see why he got on so many people’s radar. Any time you take on government unions they will call their buddies in the media and you’ll be burned in effigy. Republicans should repeal whatever statutes are out there that allow government employees to organize unions.

    The Anti-Gnostic

    January 14, 2014 at EST pm

  14. Walker took on entrenched government unions and won.

    minus

    January 14, 2014 at EST pm

  15. Walker could do amazingly well in Northeastern states such as New York and New Jersey. Far better than any other Republican candidate imaginable. People are fed up with paying exorbitant taxes and fed up with the way the public sector employee unions are constantly gorging themselves at the taxpayer trough.

    Peter

    ironrailsironweights

    January 14, 2014 at EST pm

  16. As this is a wide open field, expect more candidates to jump in.

    The Undiscovered Jew

    January 14, 2014 at EST pm

  17. You should start promoting Scott Brown:
    Pro-choice
    anti-amnesty
    can appeal to both white proles and SWPLs.

    mike

    January 15, 2014 at EST pm

  18. Walker the best/ Democrats r the biggest BABIES & losers!!!!!!

    me

    January 20, 2014 at EST pm

  19. Oh well, the Stupid Party continues it’s silliness…

    NYT, 01/20/14 – Parties Seize On Abortion Issues in Midterm Race

    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/21/us/politics/parties-seize-on-abortion-issues-in-midterm-race.html?ref=todayspaper&_r=0

    “…Abortion is becoming an unexpectedly animating issue in the 2014 midterm elections. Republicans, through state ballot initiatives and legislation in Congress, are using it to stoke enthusiasm among core supporters…”

    E. Rekshun

    January 21, 2014 at EST pm


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