Lion of the Blogosphere

Massive drop in crime in NYC

According to NYPD statistics there were 100,280 reported “robberies” in 1990 and only 19,129 in 2013. That’s a pretty massive decrease in muggings. New York City is way safer today than it was in the 1980s!

So one factor of quality of life has improved immensely over the last 23 years, for people who can still afford to live in NYC. But now that De Blasio is mayor, I predict that crime will start going back up, although year-to-date crime is down again compared to the same YTD period in 2013, so the De Blasio effect will maybe take a year or two before it starts showing up in the crime stats.

* * *

Of course, whenever a person or organization reports numbers, and that organization has a strong interest in what those numbers should be, you should assume that cheating is happening unless the results are audited by independent auditors.

Here is a law journal article criticizing the statistics.

We’ve seen the same problem with No Child Left Behind progress reporting, law school job placement statistics, global warming measurements, etc.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

July 10, 2014 at 7:10 AM

Posted in Crime

48 Responses

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  1. Lion, what’s up with the tallest residential building in the world?

    rivsdiary

    July 10, 2014 at 8:50 AM

  2. San Francisco had 14 murders the first 6 months of 2014.

    San Pedro, Honduras has a slightly smaller population and had about 725 based on 2013’s rate, making it 50 times more violent.

    Clearly, we need more Honduran immigrants.

    Novo

    July 10, 2014 at 9:10 AM

    • I find the SF stat astounding considering how their vagrants are allowed to run amok and that there are plenty of public transportation options connecting it to more prole areas.

      Fiddlesticks

      July 10, 2014 at 9:58 AM

      • Well, SF has a very high suicide rate, so…

        not too late

        July 10, 2014 at 10:13 PM

      • San Francisco:
        White 49%
        Asian 33%
        Black 6%

        Toad

        July 10, 2014 at 10:26 PM

      • The SF bum situation is gradually improving. Crime is very low, and the city’s wealthy population is heavily taxed, so you get a well funded police dept that can focus on the small problem population and areas.

        Also, the black population is even lower than SF’s 6% outside of the city except Oakland, and lot of the remaining are gay, elderly homeowners or elderly rent control winners.

        Dfred

        July 11, 2014 at 12:40 AM

      • Didn’t see that many homeless people when I was there recently (SF).

        L

        July 14, 2014 at 2:41 AM

  3. Either that, or PD is “cramming down” the robberies into simple assaults, which are misdemeanors and therefore don’t have to be reported to the FBI.

    Jacob

    July 10, 2014 at 9:11 AM

  4. I’m surprised you didn’t report on this as your prediction seems to be coming true already:

    http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/382325/de-blasios-new-york-sees-8-percent-increase-shootings-molly-wharton

    “As of June 30, New York City has seen an 8 percent increase in the number of shooting incidents since last year. According to an NYPD report, there are been 521 incidents so far this year, compared with 482 during the same span of time in 2013.

    Former NYCPD officer and security expert Lou Palumbo believes this increase is the result of the abandonment of the city’s “stop-and-frisk” policy. If the question is whether there is a correlation between higher violence and the NYPD’s curtailment of the policy, he said on CNN, “the answer is unequivocally yes.”

    He recalled that when Bill Bratton became NYC police commissioner 20 years ago, there were over 2,200 homicides in the city annually, which they were then able to reduce to about 500 per year. “Stop-and-frisk was one of the most effective tools that was implemented,” he said. “That’s the statistical truth.”

    Palumbo acknowledged that there has been a lag between when stop-and-frisk was seriously curtailed — in the final year or so of the Bloomberg administration — and the increase in shootings. “It takes a little bit of time until it filters to the street that the police are in the hands-off mode,” he explained.

    “The simple truth of the matter is the individuals that carry out these acts with firearms realize now that the police have been instructed to lay off,” Palumbo said. “They have no fear or reticence about carrying weapons.”

    Bernie

    July 10, 2014 at 9:11 AM

  5. Was in NYC earlier this year for the first time since the mid-eighties (songs from the then-new Talking Heads album Speaking in Tongues were playing on the radio at the time) and I felt much safer than I did previously. Especially in Times Square which isn’t even the same place. Having said that, with the exception of some very pretty and stylish women floating around, the place felt like a large upscale Mall of America. Few places I went to eat had any real charm but felt like some kind of mall experience (outside of Chinatown where the restaurant did have charm to the extent Chinese restaurants can have charm). One of the few exceptions was the Village Vanguard on a weeknight. No doubt I just don’t know where the charming places are, but . . . Another takeaway; the demographics have changed a lot. Saw many fewer Jews, Italians and Irish than expected and many more Mexicans (working), Chinese and Eastern Europeans. Don’t recall seeing any of the latter (perhaps a few Hispanics) thirty odd years ago. When I visited in the 80s I passed a young Mickey Rourke walking on the street.

    Curle

    July 10, 2014 at 9:29 AM

    • You saw a lot of Jewish people, you just didn’t realize they were Jewish.

      • I remember the time I move to Long Island from a very white part of Ohio. I thought there were so many Hispanics/Mexicans. I later realized that I had mistook Italians and Jews for Mexicans.

        Derk

        July 10, 2014 at 10:31 AM

      • Well, we rarely see pretty Jewesses where I’m from and that was something I wanted to see a lot of and saw some (a remarkable one at Katz’s deli) and some at Macys but not as many as I’d hoped.

        Curle

        July 10, 2014 at 10:46 AM

      • You saw a lot of Jewish girls, they just didn’t look Jewish.

      • Funny, she doesn’t look Druish.

        Jacob

        July 10, 2014 at 10:57 AM

  6. http://www.thecrimenumbersgame.com/

    The book is available via Amazon or interlibrary loan.

    You should read it, esp. the first half on the history of CompStat and the methods used to manipulate crime statistics, and you should do that before making another post on crime stats.

    Hendrickx Toussaint

    July 10, 2014 at 9:52 AM

    • LotB clearly advised skepticism over the crime stats …you should assume that cheating is happening unless the results are audited by independent auditors.

      E. Rekshun

      July 10, 2014 at 7:08 PM

  7. ahahha
    wont last for long, why didnt you talk about the jump in shootings about 2 weeks ago?
    http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2014/06/29/violent-night-leaves-at-least-13-shot-in-all-five-boroughs/
    i hope liberals get killed.

    ericcartman

    July 10, 2014 at 9:55 AM

  8. Honestly, who really cares if there is an uptick in crime in the outer boroughs? As long as it is NOT in Manhattan or SWPL Brooklyn.

    There will be no more gentrification of NYC as I see it. There is hardly any job growth in the city and all the desirable areas are pretty much occupied, and too expensive for most newcomers.

    The only areas that will gentrify are those that were in the process of it during the Bloomberg years, such parts of lower Manhattan and the fringe areas of Hipsterville.

    Queens is for the most part the safest non-gentrified area for a multicultural borough, similar to prolish Staten Island. The reason has to do with the fact that productive immigrants such as South American Hispanics and Asians are the main demographics, and blacks and Carribean Hispanics are much fewer in numbers. Not to mention, Queens has a large prole population in certain areas similar to Southern Brooklyn and Staten Island, but the proles in Queens seem to be a higher class.

    JS

    July 10, 2014 at 10:18 AM

    • Proles in NYC don’t really have to worry about gentrification because it has been preordained that their neighborhoods are too far from Manhattan to be desirable for SWPLs.

      JS

      July 10, 2014 at 10:20 AM

  9. According to cuny.edu and census.gov, the black population of NYC remained constant at 25% in 1990 and in 2010 (the latest year I could find). In spite of Knockout Game, are blacks in NYC behaving better? Did the more crime-prone blacks move out of NYC? Are the more crime-prone blacks incarcerated (or aborted)?

    E. Rekshun

    July 10, 2014 at 7:02 PM

    • A lot of American blacks have left New York, but they’ve been replaced by Caribbean and African blacks. Maybe they are less inherently hostile and lash-out violent. Also, there’s a ton of blacks in lockup. Remember the hilarious NY Times headline? It was something like “Despite drop in crime, prisons remain full.”

      peterike

      July 10, 2014 at 10:58 PM

  10. Stop and frisk was just one of many causes of the crime reduction. Here are several others:

    (1) Ubiquitous cell phones, so that people can call the cops at the first sign of trouble. It is amazing how a call to the cops in a bad situation turns everyone involved into perfect angels immediately. The cops don’t have to even show up for there to be de-escalation.

    (2) Computer tracking and sharing of crime data nationwide. Most crime is committed by a few really rotten people. They can’t get away from their own records now.

    (3) Closed circuit cameras everywhere.

    (4) Obesity

    (5) Hot-spot policing, enabled by GPS and mapping, block by block.

    (6) Long sentencing and three strikes laws.

    (7) An aging population.

    (8) Army-equipped police forces in cities, swat teams and the like mean gangs can’t ‘occupy’ territory

    (9) Sheer numbers of cops. One thing now is that cops seriously outnumber people committing crimes at a given moment (except in Detroit), so that when someone commits a crime in most cities, bored cops can show up in overwhelming numbers.

    DeBlasio is doing nothing to reverse any of the above. So I don’t expect crime to rise.

    Dan

    July 10, 2014 at 8:20 PM

    • Stop and frisk was good at getting guns off thugs. Most of the time, they use those guns to shoot each other. So if they have more access to guns, they’ll probably shoot each other more. I’m too lazy to look it up, but a bet a lot of the recent wave of shootings has been NAMs shooting NAMs.

      But agree that other crime probably won’t change that much.

      peterike

      July 10, 2014 at 11:01 PM

      • Unfortunately, the thugs are stupid and have bad aim, which means they kill unintended third parties.

      • @LotB: Unfortunately, the thugs are stupid and have bad aim, which means they kill unintended third parties.

        That’s because they hold the gun sideways like they see in the movies glorifying “thug life.”

        E. Rekshun

        July 11, 2014 at 5:17 AM

    • You forgot to mention more entertainment options (video games) and more porn to keep them distracted.

      Curle

      July 11, 2014 at 12:00 AM

    • Dan, that’s a great list. I’d add

      10. Removal of lead from gas and paint
      11. Lower testosterone teenagers due to petrochemicals in everything
      12. Kids are addicted to cable tv , video games, and social networking so aren’t even outside that much
      13. A lot of other policing IT improvements than the ones you mentioned

      Lot

      July 11, 2014 at 12:48 AM

    • @Dan: Good points. I might add that I read somewhere (LotB?) that social networking sites and today’s high-quality video games are occupying the degenerates’ time and keeping them indoors. (Sort of like midnight basketball was designed to do.)

      E. Rekshun

      July 11, 2014 at 5:14 AM

    • Ubiquitous cell phones, so that people can call the cops at the first sign of trouble. It is amazing how a call to the cops in a bad situation turns everyone involved into perfect angels immediately. The cops don’t have to even show up for there to be de-escalation.

      And when a crime does occur, there’s an increased chance that it will be caught on video and the criminal arrested.

      Peter

      ironrailsironweights

      July 11, 2014 at 9:53 AM

  11. so lion is suspicious because the even lower stats are during de blasio or suspicious that there’s ever been a decrease?

    netherlands (the most “diverse” country in europe) incarceration rate: 50 per 100k!!!

    jorge videla

    July 10, 2014 at 9:13 PM

  12. The two best comments here were from Curie and Dan. The thing is, with New York, a crime-free city came with the tradeoff of a seriously boring city. In the US as a whole, the disorder of the 70s was traded in for a police state. I know most of the readers of this blog were fine with this. But you did have people coming to NY in the 70s and also the 80s knowing the downside perfectly well (it wasn’t as if there was no publicity about this) because it was an interesting place where they could be left alone.

    Ed

    July 11, 2014 at 9:51 PM

    • Boring and also disgustingly dirty, which all comes with a hefty price, if you want to live here. Further, a city with 1/2 of its residents who are White (and 1/2 of them are proles) and the other half, who are mostly NAMs and 3rd World immigrants, just doesn’t sound like a hip place for “normal” people with money to settle down with their roots.

      JS

      July 13, 2014 at 11:06 PM

  13. In 1980, Billy Joel bragged that he “walked through Bedford-Sty alone.” The place has seem some demographic change since then. School performance is still pretty bad. What will be the affect of Mayor de Blasio?

    NYT, 07/09/13: Bedford-Stuyvesant: Diverse and Changing
    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/13/realestate/bedford-stuyvesant-diverse-and-changing.html?rref=realestate&module=ArrowsNav&contentCollection=Real%20Estate&action=keypress&region=FixedRight&pgtype=article

    …this sprawling north-central Brooklyn neighborhood of around 134,000 residents has been one of the most prominent communities for the city’s black population since the 1920s and ’30s, when African-Americans first moved to the area in large numbers. More recently, they have been joined by Caribbean-Americans…From 2000 to 2010, the number of white residents grew from 2.4 percent to 15 percent, while the number of black residents shrank from 75 to 60 percent, according to census data. (The number of Hispanic residents also grew to become 20 percent of the population.)…As recently as two years ago, townhouses were available for $700,000, but now most average about $1.4 million to $1.5 million…One-bedroom condos cost from $350,000 to $500,000, and two-bedrooms from $500,000 to $750,000..,One-bedroom rentals go for $1,800 a month up to $2,500 a month..Two-bedrooms might range from $1,800 a month for a small unit in a rent-stabilized building up to $3,200 a month…The trip into Midtown by subway takes 25 to 35 minutes…Crime has been fought successfully in the neighborhood, though it is an ongoing struggle: In 2013, the two precincts in the neighborhood reported 19 murders; in 1990, there were 120…SAT averages last year of 368 in reading, 362 in math and 352 in writing, versus 437, 463 and 433 citywide.

    E. Rekshun

    July 13, 2014 at 8:44 PM

      • Liberals will tell you that Bed-Stuy is a middle class black neighborhood that is being gentrified. It’s not a ghetto according to them!

        JS

        July 13, 2014 at 10:50 PM

    • It will be a long long time that NYC will become a world class city. When you have a multicultural cesspool, classiness is all about being diversity.

      JS

      July 13, 2014 at 10:57 PM

      • NYC already is a world class city.

      • World Class when it comes to unfettered insane liberal policies that keep more than half of its population on welfare. It’s also a city full of dysfunctional NAMs and 3rd world immigrants. World Class when it comes to its old crumbling infrastructure. Most of Manhattan’s residential neighborhoods are old, crusty and far from being livable.

        And if it this isn’t world class, than what it is? The crossroad of the world – Times Square where most normal New Yorkers avoid this place like the plague.

        http://nypost.com/2014/07/13/tourists-hawkers-costumed-pests-overrunning-times-square/

        JS

        July 14, 2014 at 9:46 AM

      • Times Square is not a place I would go to unless I needed to buy something at Toys R Us.

      • By the way, nice liveable areas in Queens, non-SWPL Brooklyn and Staten Island are prole areas and they don’t fit the description as being classy.

        JS

        July 14, 2014 at 9:49 AM

      • As someone said, NYC is a global city with 3rd world infrastructure/facilities. La Guardia Airport and the Port Authority are just 2 good examples.

        JS

        July 14, 2014 at 9:52 AM

      • I wouldn’t go for Times SQ for anything. Just gotta love that NY Post Article about Times Square. De Blasio must think it’s a Disneyland in NYC, which it is, for the wrong reasons!

        From that article:

        Captain America sidled up to a group of pretty teenage girls. “What’s up? Where you from?” he asked, coming closer. One girl pushed him away.

        CH or some other game blogger would tell Captain America to up his game differently!

        JS

        July 14, 2014 at 12:27 PM


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