Lion of the Blogosphere

Japan’s declining population

In 2014, Japan’s population decreased by 268,000, because Japanese women just aren’t having very many children.

There’s lots of free advice from the West that Japan “needs” more immigration, but the Japanese people are wisely not buying into that bad idea.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

January 2, 2015 at 8:14 PM

63 Responses

Subscribe to comments with RSS.

  1. I find it very interesting how American articles *invariably* spin Japan’s population decline as a catastrophe. That’s ridiculous. Japan is very overpopulated. Life there in thirty years will be much better with a lower population.

    It’s as if powers that be in the West are very irked that Japan is set to demonstrate that national population decline can be positive and that immigration is totally unnecessary.

    sammysamsam

    January 2, 2015 at 8:38 PM

    • I agree to a point. Japan’s financial house is a disaster, more than ours even. However they are doing the right by keeping it “in the house” and will have a chance a survive a major currency event via their social cohesion while we are doomed to interethnic violence should the day or reckoning arrive.

      Karl

      January 3, 2015 at 2:39 PM

    • The Japanese are odd in one respect. The rural areas are depopulating with many empty houses while professional pushers are needed to shove the crowds into subways in the cities.

      Why don’t they spread out more? South Korea is similar in this regard.

      Dan

      January 3, 2015 at 5:20 PM

      • They are pretty smart. I bet they will figure it out. Some company with relocate to the boonies, and attract employees to live in spacious suburbs near all that nature the Japanese tend to love.

        not too late

        January 4, 2015 at 11:48 AM

      • There is no need, you can get a pretty descent house half an hour by train from Tokyo center and it costs less to rent it than the same distance in any major city in the world. The great public transportation system and the urban design which makes even remote suburbs lively around the train stations is a better alternative to living in the country side. The pushers are rare and it doesn’t matter anyway when the trains come into the station every 3 minutes and never late, so you get squeezed a bit, big deal.

        I would also argue that raising a kid there is cheaper than any other major city, daycare is dirt cheap, around $300 – $900 per month for a full day, depends on the place, I personally payed $600 for a private daycare 8:30am – 7pm with full cooked meals and a carer per 3 kids, in the center of Tokyo. Healthy meals outside are cheap and it is not macdonalds, it is proper Japanese cooked food, rice, fish, soups whatever. The bottom line, it is much cheaper than NY, London or Sydney.

        Hashed

        January 4, 2015 at 7:47 PM

  2. and for the first time since 1980 Japan has a trade deficit.

    merca has open borders and has a trade deficit much larger as a % of GDP than Japan’s. merca is a failed state.

    World Moustache Champion

    January 2, 2015 at 9:08 PM

  3. Still, isn’t reaching a TFR of 1.8 a realistic goal?

    The Undiscovered Jew

    January 2, 2015 at 9:09 PM

    • Yes, but would probably require some ad campaigns showing beautiful cool Japanese people enjoying family life and a barrage of TV shows of showing the same. You can do a lot with propaganda.

      not too late

      January 4, 2015 at 11:51 AM

    • You can do a lot with propaganda.

      Another way is to subsidize maternity leave and childcare to help women balance work. Scandivanian countries have used this method to push their TFRs to healthier levels in the 1.7 – 1.8 range.

      And before you say it’s that high only because of immigration, keep in mind Finland is over 95% white and they’ve kept their birth rate above 1.7 for a consistent period of time. While immigrants do have more births, it’s probable that native Scandinavians have fertility rates not much lower than their national averages and comparable to white American women.

      The Undiscovered Jew

      January 5, 2015 at 9:57 PM

  4. One wonders how to crack the population problem in SE Asia and Latin America once and for all. Carpet bomb them with handheld, solar-powered videogame consoles? Plagues? Feminism? I’m still waiting for the Americans to get it through their thick skulls that if wages and consumption go up by the right amount while population growth declines, the effect on net GDP could still be positive – it’s distinctly not rocket science.

    Viscount Douchenozzlé

    January 2, 2015 at 10:22 PM

    • most of the reason why black Africa is the poorest of the poor is its tfr. Barbados is 95% black and its tfr is the lowest in the New World. british blacks have a tfr only marginally higher than british whites and much lower than Pakistani and Bangladeshi british.

      World Moustache Champion

      January 3, 2015 at 3:33 AM

      • No, Africa was poor when kids died like flies. Kids died like flies in Europe, too, back then, yet Europe made steady progress. Median income in real terms in Europe in the Dark Ages was double what it is in Africa now. Tfr is not the problem. It is something else.

        not too late

        January 4, 2015 at 11:53 AM

      • i’m not one of those idiots who thinks SSA is going to catch up any time soon. but the models are already there. the three Bs, Barbados, Bahamas, Bermuda. they depend on tax evasion and tourism sure, but they’re still proof that black people aren’t subhuman/animals.

        World Moustache Champion

        January 4, 2015 at 8:36 PM

      • …all current/former British colonies. Sure, not animals, but apparently still not capable of attaining stable self-governance without outside help. Unless you’re advocating a new wave of colonialism it’s fairly evident how this will all go.

        Viscount Douchenozzlé

        January 5, 2015 at 9:46 PM

  5. Japan’s feminism and hikikomori may be a corollary to our homegrown femininazis and castrated men; which may be leading to this drop in pop. However, a lower population in and of itself is not a bad thing. Japan is overcrowded on that tiny island. Less people means literally more elbow room, more jobs, less competition, cheaper land, etc.

    One of the big reasons America became great was because it was a huge land mass with relatively few people. That leads to cheap land and expensive labor; which I believe is healthy and just in comparison to the opposite.

    fakeemail

    January 2, 2015 at 11:35 PM

    • Africa has had huge land and resources and low population for millennia and they it didn’t get them anywhere.

      not too late

      January 4, 2015 at 11:55 AM

    • America is becoming like a Japan with its emasculated men, with the exception of one thing. NAM boys, who are not going through the same phase.

      JS

      January 4, 2015 at 12:08 PM

  6. Declining population is a gigantic problem for Japan considering their debt to GDP ratio and unwillingness to tackle their entitlement problem. Pyramid schemes only work when you have more people paying in than taking out.

    Trendy

    January 3, 2015 at 12:39 AM

    • Bingo. Which also explains why the situation there terrifies liberal progressives the world over.

      Homer_Jordan

      January 3, 2015 at 2:27 AM

    • Not an intractible problem. Cut benefits to the old by 30%, raise the retirement age by 7 years or so, and you will have effectively cut the debt in half. The old in Japan have tons of savings anyway. That can be done by a leader very easily and it is kind of what they are working toward now by trying to spur inflation (since inflation is a hidden way to cut elderly benefits).

      America’s retirement problem also is not impossible without immigration. Since 2008, millions of boomers have made the choice of working longer and not retiring when they could, and this has kept the deficit from soaring as much as predicted. Thus, even with totally irresponsible politicians, a natural equilibrium is found.

      Massive third world immigration however is not reversible.

      Dan

      January 3, 2015 at 9:27 AM

      • “Cut benefits to the old by 30%, raise the retirement age by 7 years or so, and you will have effectively cut the debt in half.”

        But more importantly, this would cut the *deficit* to zero. This would solve the debt problem at its root.

        Dan

        January 3, 2015 at 9:34 AM

      • Dan, you mention some very sensible policy ideas, but you’ll see Satan ringing the Salvation Army bell before you’ll ever hear a liberal politician in the West either a) agree to entitlement reform or b) do anything to stop the flow of illegal immigrants.

        Homer_Jordan

        January 3, 2015 at 11:14 PM

    • But the West also has its own ‘pyramid scheme’ because all the imported labour will also grow old, and therefore even more immigrants will be needed to support them.
      The big difference is that in the future Japan, young Japanese will be supporting lots of elderly Japanese who look a lot like their grandparents. Whereas in the West we can look forward to an old age where those being expected to support us are of a different race and ethnicity, probably despise us, and probably just want us to die so that our racist and ill-gotten money can be redistributed to more worthy minority groups (theirs).

      Prolier Than Thou

      January 3, 2015 at 11:43 AM

    • This is the main problem, and number two is that increasingly everything is being concentrated in Tokyo at the expense of the entire remainder of the nation, including other major urban areas (even Osaka, Kyoto, Sapporo, Kobe, and all the other sized-just-right urban centers that saw big influxes in the post-WWII urbanization). Number three is the Abe/Kuroda regime’s commitment to inflation and money-printing, which is destroying the savings of the non-1%.

      With the nation circling the wagons in Tokyo, and with the elderly circling the wagons around themselves and their entitlements, the cosseted elderly elite in the capital can hardly feel the problem. Even a few years ago a young-ish person could buy a home for a reasonable price in one of the other cities and still find a job to pay for it. Now you can’t even save money to tide you over when you don’t have a job. Japan is going to become a 21st-century Hungary or Poland, with a capable, well-educated populace that nonetheless experiences a brain drain as people emigrate to places with more opportunity, and very few people immigrate into the country to balance things.

      Kyo

      January 3, 2015 at 11:58 AM

      • This is an exaggerated version of what is going on everywhere. The US is not as bad as Europe or Japan, but I”ve noticed that the American cities which have decent job markets have ridiculously high housing prices. But you can go to the sticks or a second or third tier city and not have to pay as much for housing. But then there are not that many jobs. Which would be OK if you could save enough to tied you over until you get a job. But then we’ve had zero interest policies in effect for sometime.

        Ed

        January 4, 2015 at 12:48 PM

  7. As long as GDP per capita is generally rising, what’s the problem for Japan having a decreasing population? Frankly, I can see an upside for quality of life.

    steve@steve.com

    January 3, 2015 at 1:12 AM

    • There is none. But ideology is at play here, not accounting.

      Thomas

      January 3, 2015 at 1:26 AM

    • the only “problem” is for capital. for labor, the 99%, declining population is great.

      e.g., after the plague in the 14th c, living standards in britain were never as good until shortly before WW I. really.

      World Moustache Champion

      January 3, 2015 at 3:36 AM

    • Another notable consequence of the Black Death was the raising of the real wage of England (due to the shortage of labour as a result of the reduction in population), a trait shared across Western Europe, which in general led to a real wage in 1450 that was unmatched in most countries until the 19th or 20th century.[81] The higher wages for workers combined with sinking prices on grain products led to a problematic economic situation for the gentry.

      today one may read “gentry” as “capital”.

      World Moustache Champion

      January 3, 2015 at 3:44 AM

    • Have fun paying the increasingly onerous taxes and national-pension requirements for that massive cohort of elderly who refuse to let their gravy train slow down.

      Here is a graph of how much someone born in 1940, 1950, 1960… can expect to receive (net, receipts when retired minus payments over a working lifetime).

      Basically everybody is working so that the Boomers and their predecessors can benefit. There are so many more of them than those that follow that it’s a sea of red ink for everyone after. Even the people born in 1970 and 1980 don’t have enough of their own kids’ generation (being born now) to support them. Today’s children will find it even harder to have children than today’s adults do now. A giant cascade of red ink as each generation takes as much as it can from those that follow.

      Kyo

      January 3, 2015 at 12:09 PM

      • That is socialism for ya. It is called eating your children.

        not too late

        January 4, 2015 at 11:59 AM

  8. Washington Post had an article on this too:

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2013/10/22/japans-sexual-apathy-is-endangering-the-global-economy/

    In the US you can’t tell a woman not to have an abortion, so I don’t see where anyone gets off telling a whole country what to do with their reproductive rights.

    Concern Trolling – next big thing in 2015.

    ModernReader

    January 3, 2015 at 1:56 AM

  9. I went to Japan one summer for 3 weeks in high school with a group of students and teachers.

    I stayed at a Japanese home for a week with another guy, blond all-American varsity wrestler, 16.

    One evening we were walking around and there were some teenage girls in a park. One of them came up to us and lit a cigarette lighter. When they saw his blond self they all screamed like he was Frank Sinatra. “I have been to Okrahoma!” said one.

    The family had a hawwwt 20-year-old daughter named Yumiko. The last night there, their bald alpha dad was passing around sake and saying (in Japanese, his son was translating!) “do you think my daughter is hot?” I just went omega deer in the headlights – how do you answer that? He acted insulted. Blond wrestler guy said, “Well, I think she’s beautiful!”

    Later that evening through the bamboo wall I hear her go into his room and a few minutes later, female gasps.

    The next day, he says to me, “I just want you to know, NOTHING HAPPENED last night!” (His blonde girlfriend was also among the student group.)

    ATC

    January 3, 2015 at 5:56 AM

  10. Someone is always arguing that lower fertility is good for wages or the environment. That makes sense in countries that are impoverished and grossly overpopulated like India (population 1.5B & GNI $1500) or have insane fertility like Niger (TFR 7.6 and GNI $400). But if a country has high GNI there’s no point in reducing fertility unless one also restricts immigration. Why have fewer children if corporations and politicians are just going to flood the country with immigrants anyway? People may argue that the real problem is immigration. Maybe so. But not having children isn’t going to stop immigration. And if the country is going to be overpopulated I’d rather it be overpopulated with my children than some 3rd world refugee’s children.

    destructure

    January 3, 2015 at 9:49 AM

    • This is the point that seems to evade people so excited about declining population numbers. I’d rather have a world crowded with intelligent, future time oriented people than with numskulls. But it’s precisely those with strong FTO and education who quit or curtail reproducing when people start crying that babies are pollution. It almost looks like a clever conspiracy to dumb down humanity- get the smart people to believe having children is a very bad thing.

      Also, as far as supposedly overpopulated countries like India, it’s really the cities that are crowded. India has vast swaths of jungle and rural area that are sparsely populated (Japan likewise is less densely populated outside its cities). The northeastern Indian states contain some of the few still unexplored areas on earth with vast stretches of untouched rainforest. But when people think “India” they imagine Calcutta slums.

      Anyway, it really doesn’t have much to do with absolute numbers, but rather with functionality as a society. Luxury high rises are technically grossly overpopulated yet their residents enjoy a comfortable life. Meanwhile a handful of tribesmen in sparsely populated african jungle are eating diseased monkeys and watch their children die from lack of medicine.

      It would be interesting to examine exactly who still *is* having children in Japan; it might resemble the failed depopulation measures in Singapore where the most educated women stopped having children- or even dating- which had a dysgenic effect on their social fabric which they’ve since been scrambling to rectify.

      slithy toves

      January 4, 2015 at 8:34 AM

      • I thought India was facing serious aquifer depletion. Overpopulation is a problem unto itself. Rich competent people do generate more pollution. Increasing the population by growing your own or importing 3rd worlders still impacts the environment. However, a growing population brings profits to the elites, so for all their lip service, they won’t be doing anything to reduce population in any areas where there is enough infrastructure and wealth to redistribute to themselves. They can be persuaded to push for birth control in the actual 3rd world itself, however.

        not too late

        January 4, 2015 at 12:06 PM

      • How will the intelligent people of the future with strong FTO but who lack significant trust funds assure comfortable lives for themselves away from the low FTO numbskulls if most jobs (including office jobs) have been automated?

        nebbish

        January 4, 2015 at 2:38 PM

  11. I’m waiting for a libertarian to point out there is no overpopulation problem: you could take America’s entire population and, once freeze dried, fit it into the back seat of a Tesla, with enough room left over for an unabridged edition of Atlas Shrugged.

    Mark Caplan

    January 3, 2015 at 10:36 AM

    • Caplan, behave.

      rob

      January 3, 2015 at 11:31 PM

    • Lol, good one Mark!

      CamelCaseRob

      January 4, 2015 at 6:53 AM

    • Or you could just kill whitey, the progressive way.

      Glengarry

      January 5, 2015 at 11:09 AM

  12. Its actually encouraging that all the previous commentators reached the obvious conclusion, that Japan was overcrowded (remember those people paid to stuff passengers into commuter trains?) and should have a lower population, despite every piece on the subject in the American media insisting that the decline is a big problem, and Japan needs to import more people ASAP.

    Ed

    January 3, 2015 at 12:45 PM

  13. There was one thing it was really good to have a big population for was to be able to fight wars. Between roughly 1790 and 1950, wars were fought mainly by conscripting people and giving them rifles. The more young men you could put in your infantry, the better.

    This started to change as armies started relying more on firepower delivered first by better artillery and then by planes, and of course you had the atomic bomb. Now we are seeing more use of drones. You don’t need a big population to defend yourself anymore. The elites have drawn the obvious conclusion as to the need to have the masses share in the wealth to keep them happy (they don’t need to do that anymore too), but still want to have lots of people in the masses.

    Ed

    January 3, 2015 at 12:49 PM

  14. O/T – News proving old world Whites I guess Southern Euros in this case, disdain American Anglos and their Jewish brethren for being prolish, even in a corporate setting such Revlon.

    Delpani referred to Americans as “small-minded” and “dirty…Meyers also claimed that Delpani treated him differently from other members of his team, nearly all of whom were Spanish or Italian, because he was Jewish and American-born

    HA…LOL. I was right.

    http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/ex-science-chief-sues-revlon-over-safety-issues-anti-jewish-bias/ar-BBhol6y?ocid=mailsignout

    Time for Jorge Videla to make his case further!

    JS

    January 3, 2015 at 1:48 PM

  15. I do wonder how Japan could have turned out if they did not attack Pearl Harbor. They were enduring withering oil sanctions from the USA after the invasion of Manchuria, but if they could have found other oil sources they may have colonized vast parts of the Far East successfully.

    Camlost

    January 3, 2015 at 2:12 PM

    • Its interesting to speculate. They could have done a deal with the Soviet Union -most people don’t know that Japan and the Soviet Union were at peace for most of World War 2, but in late 1941 the USSR really needed its oil for other purposes.

      Ed

      January 4, 2015 at 1:32 PM

    • Japan needed to be shaken out of its supremasist and militarist culture. Attacking the US and getting nuked was the best thing to have happened to that country. It literally transformed them to a peace loving nation.

      Yakov

      January 5, 2015 at 12:34 AM

    • Chiang Kaishek’s wife hoodwinked Eleanor Roosevelt to help China, which is one of the greatest mistake of US foreign policy.

      toos is god

      January 5, 2015 at 2:03 PM

  16. They aren’t diverse enough. If only they would import more people from third world countries they would be much happier and productive. Just ask the people of Ferguson MO and surrounding environs if they doubt the truth of that claim. I got the shake down routine (it didn’t work) the other day at a local strip mall by a local vibrant future leader of our country. Seemed to think I should give him money for no particular reason. Japan should experience this.

    Curle

    January 3, 2015 at 3:15 PM

  17. One of the downsides of a declining population, if you’re into Game, is a dwindling number of young women relative to older men. I guess this means that those in plastic surgery and longevity treatment will have to be hard at work to keep older women looking pretty.

    A declining population is excellent for the environment. I believe that global warming is all a hoax, but less people means a smaller demand for land and resources, which keeps more wildlife habitats intact.

    Sid

    January 3, 2015 at 5:30 PM

    • “A declining [Japanese] population is excellent for the environment.”

      If I were a whale, I’d definitely be breathing easier through my blowhole.

      Mark Caplan

      January 4, 2015 at 4:21 AM

    • This is an interesting point, but I think “Game” arose in the first place because of declining numbers of young women in developed countries, compared to the baby boom generation, and the women who are there being less interested in sex. And this itself is a reaction to population pressures. Btw, the fact that intelligent and educated people adjust their behavior to population pressures before stupid and ignorant people do so doesn’t mean that the population pressures themselves are fake.

      In Japan, where this has been going on for some time, many young men have moved beyond Game and just structured their lives around something other than scoring with young women, such as video games.

      Ed

      January 4, 2015 at 1:36 PM

  18. What a great nation! Sure their elites and business community would like to get cheap labor at a fraction of the Japanese wages, but they delay gratification and put national interests first. Way to go Japan!

    Yakov

    January 3, 2015 at 7:31 PM

    • And yet you tout low wages for Hispanic invaders here in the USA!

      JS

      January 4, 2015 at 12:00 PM

      • and equates Latino with Spanish.

        call a Spaniard a Mexican…my guess is he’d clock you.

        World Moustache Champion

        January 4, 2015 at 8:38 PM

      • Mate, please. I think American immigration policy is destroying this country, but at the same time I’m sympathetic to the desperate individuals who come here and make the most of what they have.

        Yakov

        January 4, 2015 at 9:48 PM

      • Sadam, FYI we on the street call Hispanics Spanish and it’s perfectly acceptable colloquial usage. Nobody is calling a Spaniard a Mexican. What ivory tower do you inhabit?

        Yakov

        January 5, 2015 at 12:28 AM

  19. Japanese people aren’t horny enough.Their fertility preferences are likely genetically modulated in response to perceived density and resource scarcity.

    I'm back! Lion of Judah/Live-Evil

    January 4, 2015 at 7:31 AM

  20. Japan’s carrying capacity is 25 million, a figure kept vigorously by the Shogunate 1750-1850 and helped by merciless abortions and a major famine or two.

    And nowdays most of Japan’s population is concentrated in 3 major cities, making it even more congested.

    Give it a break. It is just returning to its carrying capacity.

    toos is god

    January 5, 2015 at 1:43 PM


Comments are closed.

%d bloggers like this: