I’ve previously stated that Trump can’t win the Republican nomination because he’s a bozo, which means he lacks gravitas because bozos don’t have gravitas.
On the other hand, Trump is now tied with Jeb Bush for first place. Is it possible that, as the only candidate seriously taking a stance against immigration and making it his main campaign platform, he can actually win the nomination despite being a bozo?
 | Joe on Cesar Altier Sayoc |
 | map on Cesar Altier Sayoc |
 | Dave Pinsen on Cesar Altier Sayoc |
 | Ronald McDonald on Cesar Altier Sayoc |
| map on Cesar Altier Sayoc |
 | The Shepherd on Cesar Altier Sayoc |
 | Lee on Cesar Altier Sayoc |
| map on Cesar Altier Sayoc |
 | MikeCA on Cesar Altier Sayoc |
 | Deranged but sedate on Cesar Altier Sayoc |
 | PerezHBD on Cesar Altier Sayoc |
| MikeCA on Suspect in custody!!!! |
 | Robert on Suspect in custody!!!! |
 | Anon on Cesar Altier Sayoc |
| Robert on Cesar Altier Sayoc |
how did gwb win twice if being a bozo is a presidential disqualifer?
james
July 4, 2015 at EDT am
Exactly.
Lion of the Judah-sphere
July 4, 2015 at EDT pm
You do have a point there.
not too late
July 4, 2015 at EDT pm
Isn’t mockery utilizing the megaphone of the media the #1 way power is exercise in the US today? We live in Jon Stewart’s world now.
Curle
July 4, 2015 at EDT am
Trump is irritating the MSM like nobody else so he must be saying something right.
Boric acid on my brain
July 4, 2015 at EDT am
It’s already cost trump millions of dollars in commercial partnerships to take the stance he has, right?
Maybe he’s really all in this time. I’d vote for him rather than some pro-immigration scumbag (everyone else).
I predict very soon that Bernie Sanders will become the Democrat front runner, and it will be VERY hard to argue against a guy offering free college and lower interest rates on existing loans. Even rich conservatives like me have student loans cracking on at 6 or 7% a year.
jjbees
July 4, 2015 at EDT pm
He graduated from Wharton in economics. He’s no bozo. Granted, he probably got into Wharton because of his father’s money, but still, it’s not like he graduated with a soft major.
Shawn
July 4, 2015 at EDT pm
George W. Bush has a Harvard MBA and he got us into a never-ending war in Iraq-istan, formed the TSA and DHS, expanded FEMA’s role so that every thunderstorm is now declared a money-grab “state of emergency,” and gave Medicare beneficiaries the Part D doughnut hole. Republicans are the stupid party.
E. Rekshun
July 4, 2015 at EDT pm
Thank god we got Obama, and looking forward to Shillary.
Glengarry
July 8, 2015 at EDT am
He spent two years at a jesuit school in Brooklyn then transferred to Wharton. He didn’t graduate with any honors. Of course, the key lesson to take from Trump is that his academic performance made no difference…he went to work for his father’s real estate firm after school and was made president of that firm in no time.
swank
July 4, 2015 at EDT pm
Trump is all talk no action. He hasn’t even filed the paperwork to become an official candidate. If anyone can see thru hollow alpha bluster that sucks up all the publicity but produces 0 accomplishments, it should be us HBD value-creation betas. Even with putative “allies.”
ATC
July 4, 2015 at EDT pm
“Trump is all talk no action.”
That’s part of what I mean by calling him a bozo.
Lion of the Blogosphere
July 4, 2015 at EDT pm
Might Trump be attempting to help out the Democrats?
Stealth
July 4, 2015 at EDT pm
If he does well enough to get into the debates, he’ll get clobbered when he opens his mouth.
Anthony
July 4, 2015 at EDT pm
By who, Jeb? Rubio? No. The only strong debater in the bunch is Ted Cruz, and he’s been smart enough to support Trump on immigration recently.
Trump has been famous since Cruz and Rubio were in junior high school, and he has plenty of experience on live TV. If he stays in for the debates, he will be a force to be reckoned with.
Dave Pinsen
July 5, 2015 at EDT am
Trump always handles himself well in interviews. He even stared down the five yentas on The View a year or so ago.
Rick Perry and Rand Paul are the week debaters of the bunch.
Bernie
July 5, 2015 at EDT pm
trump’s candidacy is very important, because he’s willing to say things that no one else will say. whether he wins is of course irrelevant. he’s going to take a lot of damage, financial and reputational, but it’s important that he keep at it.
as president – i have the same issue with him as i have with christie – he seems like a hot head and that’s not good for diplomacy. watching vladimir putin interviewed by charlie rose – cool as a cucumber. that’s what you need.
ralph
July 4, 2015 at EDT pm
But he’s focusing exclusively on the weakest anti immigration argument – I’ve never seen conclusive evidence that Hispanic immigrants or their descendants have above average crime rates (after adjusting for age). Highlighting specific examples of crimes committed by immigrants is even sillier.
Lloyd Llewellyn
July 4, 2015 at EDT pm
But drama sells. Probably 75% of Americans have only a cursory interest in politics, so arguments that our post 65 immigrants are not assimilating to middle class education standards (which I would say is the best anti-immigration argument) have little emotional resonance because the consequences are all long term.
But crime is the here and now and can thus be persuasive with the broad electorate, especially women. That would be my explanation for why it’s put at the forefront. Ann Coulter, who is no dumb cookie (and who could argue the more complicated middle class education angle if she wanted) also stressed the crime angle in her new book because one must assume she thought it the best tactically.
There is probably little evidence that Hispanics are more likely criminal, but most average Americans probably do regard them as noticeably more scary. Hence, much emotional appeal, if one can parry with MSM when they try to point this out. Then maybe you could switch to the middle class education angle once these more emotional arguments against our mass immigration system make it a hot national topic.
trey
July 5, 2015 at EDT pm
because you havent made the effort to look
http://www.vdare.com/posts/hispanic-crime-rates
http://www.vdare.com/articles/ann-coulter-media-furious-trump-breaks-embargo-with-hatefacts-about-mexicans
eric cartman
July 5, 2015 at EDT pm
I think the most dramatic argument is that immigrants are dispossessing white Americans from their homeland. It’s pretty much the worst nonviolent thing you can do to a people.
The problem is that middle class education standards entail being pro immigrant so the only people who are going to be opposed to immigration in large numbers are those that themselves fall short of that standard.
Lloyd Llewellyn
July 5, 2015 at EDT pm
Trump is a bozo with the courage to back up what he says, and to fight back against those demonizing him. That is worth something, in a Presidential candidate.
George
July 4, 2015 at EDT pm
McCain demonstrated that bozos can get the nomination.
Tiomoid of Angle
July 4, 2015 at EDT pm
McCain wasn’t a bozo.
Lion of the Blogosphere
July 4, 2015 at EDT pm
Really? McCain has a famously short temper, suspended his presidential campaign during the 2008 financial meltdown, and chose Sarah Palin to be his running mate. If one of the definitions of “bozo” is “lacking good judgment,” then yes, McCain is a bozo.
Sgt. Joe Friday
July 4, 2015 at EDT pm
Well, the Palin decision was certainly ill-considered.
Lion of the Blogosphere
July 5, 2015 at EDT am
He’s kind of a bozo. McCain-Feingold could only have been written by someone with absolutely no respect for political speech rights.
Curle
July 4, 2015 at EDT pm
John McCain is a war hero, you hack.
Bar_Back
July 4, 2015 at EDT pm
McCain was a POW not a hero. The only thing he ever did was crash a plane. Several in fact. While I sympathize with his imprisonment that doesn’t place him above criticism — particularly since he’s a politician. Not only did McCain sell out long ago but those years in captivity scrambled his omelet.
destructure
July 4, 2015 at EDT pm
On betfair Bush is roughly 3 to 1 to win the nomination. But Trump is about 24 to one. Would you say that Trump is then a good bet?
John Croome
July 4, 2015 at EDT pm
Most likely Trump is a Ross Perot. He’ll get media attention, make some good points (that no one will listen to), and go on to never be a serious contender.
shiva1008
July 4, 2015 at EDT pm
Perot had quite a bit more impact than you’re giving him credit for.
He was a participant in each of the presidential general election debates. Note, these are not the party primary debates, but the debates including Clinton and Bush occurring just two or three weeks before the election.
And he ended up winning 19% of the popular vote– not the measly 1-2% that Libertarian and Green candidates fetch.
anon
July 4, 2015 at EDT pm
Perot won 19% of the vote from the Republicans, helping Clinton win.
map
July 5, 2015 at EDT am
Perot was a serious competitor. And might have won had he not had some sort of paranoid mental breakdown that summer.
Dave Pinsen
July 5, 2015 at EDT pm
What good are political victories if the Overton window keeps shifting? Our own Supreme Court, with 5 ‘conservatives’ just handed down a ruling accepting the principle of disparate impact.
In the UK Nigel Farage has had almost no electoral success. And yet he has succeeded in moving the Overton window right and making a real difference.
The only solution to attempts at intimidation by the PC crowd is to double down.
Dan
July 4, 2015 at EDT pm
Good point about the Overton Window, but when the establishment gives you an opening, you have to take it; not sit on your hands. Case in point, 2 weeks ago, Joe Biden said that the end of the white majority in the US is a good thing.
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/biden-cheers-end-of-white-majority-thats-a-good-thing/article/2567351
Now never mind asking Biden about it, but that gives an opening (hey, they brought it up),
Is that opinion shared by the President?
Do the current Democratic candidates for President think it’s a good thing?
Why is it a good thing? And so on. Just bringing it up, even if you never get a straight answer, will make an impact.
Mike Street Station
July 13, 2015 at EDT pm
Polls at this stage of the game shouldn’t be taken seriously. Late November and early December will be the time to start taking polls seriously. The reason is that “if the election were held today” theories don’t take into the account that voters get realistic about who they will support when the voting (or the beginning of the voting) is a few weeks away. Voters will often vocalize support for a particular candidate precisely because the election will NOT be held today, or anytime soon. Whenever you see voters appearing to support a very unlikely candidate you should start to psychoanalyze why they may be either lying to you or convincing themselves they’re really going to go with this unlikely person. Trump has never held elected office. The voters are not going to make him the Republican nominee. Their support for him is most likely a way to stick it to the media or a way of rewarding him for the political entertainment he’s providing. My best guess!
Maryk
July 4, 2015 at EDT pm
Trump is like UKIP, or the National Front. He doesn’t need to win an election in order to win the policy debate. It’s all about Overton Window.
Scott Walker benefits because he’s more normal. BNP’s existence allowed UKIP to position themselves as the respectable anti-immigrant party. I bet Rubio regrets joining the Gang of 8.
DSGNTD_PLYR
July 4, 2015 at EDT pm
This is great. The media and pc police have ruined Trump. He can’t go back to his old popularity; his only hope now is to triple down on attacking the bullshit; they left him no escape hatch. The pc ranks screwed up here because they now have to cover him, so he has a megaphone and because he is trump that megaphone is heard by low information voters.
Now he needs to put out commercials showing people going to their mailboxes and finding their pension and SSi checks not there because the dems and others have given us the burden of taking in the world’s poor. Stress that states will need help with their obligations, but unfortunately we spent that on “investing, betting on illegals. Scare the dems’ govt worker base….scare them with the truth.
With his hands not at all tied; trump needs some lee Atwater unchained spirit.
Knowmad
July 4, 2015 at EDT pm
I don’t think Trump is ruined. Three years ago he was the nation’s primary birther conspiracy theorist. That’s not even being mentioned now in a media environment that is hostile to him.
Mike Street Station
July 13, 2015 at EDT pm
Trump gave tons of money to Democrats in the early 2000s back when he was pretending to be a Reform Party moderate. He’s committed all sorts of crimes against GOP purity that can easily be dredged up the second the rest of the gang decides to take him seriously.
Morris
July 4, 2015 at EDT pm
I don’t think his past donations to Democrats will hurt him. He can be honest and say that, as a businessman in government regulated industries, he’s had to play ball with politicians; that businesses shouldn’t have to do that, and as President, he’ll clean up the system so they won’t.
Dave Pinsen
July 5, 2015 at EDT pm
You might be right, but then again partisanship is quite hysterical these days. Christie still takes enormous flack simply for thanking the president of the United States for visiting his hurricane ravished state.
Frankie
July 6, 2015 at EDT pm
Immigration is issue #1, 2, and 3. I’ll forgive him if he shifts the Overton Window.
aki (@DSGNTD_PLYR)
July 5, 2015 at EDT pm
“Is it possible that… [Trump] can actually win the nomination despite being a bozo?”
No.
Vince
July 4, 2015 at EDT pm
Agree with Maryk polls don’t mean much at this point, but Lion, your Huckabee prediction is working out so far about as well as I thought it would.
Truth
July 4, 2015 at EDT pm
Trump is doing a media promotional splash for fun and profit, which he can afford thanks to massive appreciation of all his real estate holdings over the past 5 years.
Value transference parasites make better presidents. The only engineer to become President was Herbert Hoover, generally considered to be the worst of all time.
Ava Lon
July 5, 2015 at EDT am
Trump is a hugely successful businessman who has been culturally relevant for decades in what way does he lack gravitas?
What Trump ought to do, if he doesn’t make it to the White House is start his own TV news network, one that allows realtalk on immigration. He could easily eat into Fox’s audience with that.
Dave Pinsen
July 5, 2015 at EDT am
“John McCain is a war hero, you hack.”
“Tokyo Rose”??
He’s also involved in the USS Liberty disgrace.
“Following in his father’s footsteps, Senator John McCain of Arizona has used his position on the Senate Armed Services Committee to effectively block any reconvening of a board of inquiry to reexamine the evidence.”
aandrews
July 5, 2015 at EDT pm
McCain is insane, but not insane enough to believe in USS Liberty conspiracy or that Israel deliberately attacked a ship of it’s only real ally while fighting a war on three fronts.
Yakov
July 6, 2015 at EDT am
Trump is sucking all of the media oxygen that lesser Republican candidates would need to gain traction (Fiorina, Carson,,.). Even candidates like Rubio or Walker need to get their message out.
This works to whoever is raising the most money’s advantage.
Rotten
July 6, 2015 at EDT am
Having said that… The great Wall of Trump is a fantastic idea. I’m ok with putting huge T’s every few miles on it too.
Rotten
July 6, 2015 at EDT am
In other words, Trump is benefiting Jeb Bush, the most pro-immigration candidate ever.
Lion of the Blogosphere
July 6, 2015 at EDT am
Will Trump Inc be crushed by the left-mob? That would be unfortunate. When the left-mob sets its phasers on destroy, it is game over. This made it impossible for Romney to win, but the effect is much larger in just a few short years since them.
The alt-right wanted an end to Democracy. Congrats folks!
Dan
July 6, 2015 at EDT pm
Trump sounds, if nothing else, like an excellent troll vote. Why not vote for someone who advocates the issues you care about?
I hope he subsequently goes the third party route and perots ¡Jeb! but good.
Glengarry
July 8, 2015 at EDT am
My God Lion but you’re a snob. Half the news everyday is about someone named Kardashian and you think a Billionaire is declasse? He might not be Thurston Howell III but after seeing another el Bushbo Taco Bell Grande Stupido talk about the Presidency, I would think everyone right of Stalin would be breathing a sigh of relief. If you think a Billionaire does not have a chance when Billionaires Like Bill Gates design the curriculum for your kids, and some clown named Soros practically bankrolls half the Demogogue Party by himself, then maybe you ought to wake up and smell the Oligarchy. You could probably buy a Senator for some blow and a hooker, like an old 1980s Miami Vice episode. If you think Trump doesn’t have the savvy to take on the media, then how do you explain him having the Miss America pageant and his own ever recurring role on the Apprentice. The reason the GOP is shitting bricks seeing him is because he has the Fuck You money to tell those blowhards like Karl Rove to take a hike he doesn’t need that GOP party favor moola. He has billions in the bank, and most of it is in Real Estate or a foreign PO Box past Obama’s dirty fingers gang. If he wants he can tear everyone a new asshole and laugh all the way to the bank. He doesn’t even need the nomination. If they don’t crown him, he’ll take out half hour ads on the media and make sounds about third party Perot time and those spineless worms at the GOP will be on their knees giving him everything he wants and you know it..
Joshua Sinistar
July 12, 2015 at EDT pm