Lion of the Blogosphere

Debate predictions

Winners will be Donald Trump and Mike Huckabee. Both are experienced media personalities.

Jeb Bush and Scott Walker will be losers. Bush is said to have had a bad performance in a CSPAN forum in New Hampshire which Donald Trump skipped. And Scott Walker just has a boring persona compared to Trump and Huckabee.

Chris Christie also has the potential to be a winner, if his star hasn’t faded too much already.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

August 4, 2015 at 1:43 pm

Posted in Politics

65 Responses

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  1. Donald Trump is made for TV. It’s his biggest advantage. This guy is even more made-for-TV than Reagan and Clinton combined.

    viceroy of the east side

    August 4, 2015 at 2:03 pm

    • good point. reminds me of this article by paul graham. have you read it, lion?

      “One would like to believe elections are won and lost on issues, if only fake ones like Willie Horton. And yet, if they are, we have a remarkable coincidence to explain. In every presidential election since TV became widespread, the apparently more charismatic candidate has won.”

      http://www.paulgraham.com/charisma.html

      rivelino

      August 4, 2015 at 3:43 pm

      • I think it’s valid.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        August 4, 2015 at 4:15 pm

      • For the most part, I agree with Graham, but:

        – 1964: It’s hard to argue that LBJ had charisma, as popularly understood by most people. In fact, Goldwater was the more telegenic and dynamic of the two. But there was no way the people were going to vote LBJ out of office after just 11 months, giving the country its 3rd president in just 14 months.

        – 1976: Jerry Ford was portrayed unfairly as a stumblebum, when in fact he was a Yale law graduate, All American football player at Michigan, and had even been a male model at one point. Maybe Carter won because back in those days sensitive, Alan Alda types were the rage. Also, Ford blew it with his remark about Poland, but even that turned out to almost not be fatal. Ford was closing the gap with Carter quickly, and if the election had been held a week later most pollsters think Ford would have won.

        – 2016: If the election is about charisma, the Democrats are in big trouble, because not only does Hillary lack charisma, she’s Nixonesque in her ability to turn people off. Yes, I get it that her whole campaign is going to be “vote for me, I have a hoohah,” and the Republicans could still snatch defeat from the jaws of victory by nominating Jeb Bush. But she doesn’t excite anybody except aging lesbians and angry, militant feminists.

        Of course, the whole charisma or iikeability thing is not going to matter in a few more election cycles. At least at a national level the USA is going to become a one-party state, and the Democratic nominee will be declared the presumptive president-elect by the media at the end of the Democrat convention. In that sort of environment, the candidate’s personality will be less important than their ideology and willingness to toe the party line. Example: PRI in Mexico.

        Sgt. Joe Friday

        August 4, 2015 at 5:10 pm

      • One would like to believe elections are won and lost on issues, if only fake ones like Willie Horton.

        The Willie Horton issue was hardly fake. It was all too serious and said something about Michael Dukakis that made him unqualified to be president.

        But what about charisma in that case – Bush versus Dukakis?

        Also what about height, independent of charisma?

        When was the last time the shorter candidate won – Carter?

        Bush might have been slightly shorter than Gore but had slightly more charisma.

        Dukakis was short, had zero charisma and came off as weak.

        To test for charisma you would also have to control for height, for issues as well.

        Rifleman

        August 4, 2015 at 7:48 pm

      • Charisma means that people actually ENJOY watching the person speak and WANT to see more. Scott Walker definitely doesn’t have that quality.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        August 4, 2015 at 8:16 pm

      • “The Willie Horton issue was hardly fake.”

        if rifleman and dave pinsen both think willie horton was not a fake issue, then that is something to think about.

        i think what PG meant was that horton was just an anecdote, just one example used to scare the people.

        but yeah, maybe not. maybe it was the tip of the iceburg.

        rivelino

        August 8, 2015 at 6:06 pm

      • “vote for me, I have a hoohah,”

        Someone needs to turn that into a meme.

        destructure

        August 4, 2015 at 10:24 pm

      • How was Willie Horton a “fake issue”? Dukakis was soft on crime, and Horton was an example of it. Just read the first paragraph of the Wiki article about Horton, it’s almost too crazy to believe: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Willie_Horton

        As an aside, the Willie Horton ad was one of the most effective ads by a Republican candidate. Rand Paul would never run it, because he is soft on crime too. But The Donald could easily run one in a general election against a Dem, using examples of illegal alien murderers who were free to kill thanks to Democrats’ non-enforcement of immigration laws.

        Dave Pinsen

        August 5, 2015 at 6:03 am

      • “The Donald could easily run one in a general election against a Dem, using examples of illegal alien murderers who were free to kill thanks to Democrats’ non-enforcement of immigration laws.”

        i like this idea, a lot.

        rivelino

        August 8, 2015 at 6:03 pm

      • Sqt wrote: 1964: It’s hard to argue that LBJ had charisma, as popularly understood by most people. In fact, Goldwater was the more telegenic and dynamic of the two. But there was no way the people were going to vote LBJ out of office after just 11 months, giving the country its 3rd president in just 14 months.

        I saw a PBS documentary about 2 weeks ago about how the ’64 and ’68 Presidential campaigns changed the country. Johnson beat Goldwater by lying about Vietnam. Imagine if in ’04 Bush claimed he was the peace candidate, and Kerry was the war-monger. That’s what Johnson did, and it worked. Amazing.

        DSGNTD_PLYR

        August 5, 2015 at 11:52 am

  2. I think Christie could be the break out star of the debate. The only reason he was ever considered a presidential candidate in the first place was because of all those Youtubes of his gruff handling of union hacks, school administrators, and otherwise annoying citizens, If he brings the old Christie back, that could make people take a second look at someone they’ve pretty much discarded because of his positions.

    Mike Street Station

    August 4, 2015 at 2:06 pm

    • In those YouTube videos, he’s the star attraction. In this debate, he’ll be one of 10, and off to one side, thanks to his low poll numbers.

      I know Lion’s not a sports fan, but I like the idea of a debate tournament instead: seed the candidates by their poll numbers, and have a series of one-on-one debates, with the winners (chosen by viewers calling or texting in) advancing.

      Dave Pinsen

      August 5, 2015 at 6:06 am

    • Republican voters love tough guys, even tough guys who are really squishy liberals inside.

      I hope Republican voters aren’t fooled by Christie. He will be a total wimp against Hillary, where his tough guy act will not work

      Rotten

      August 5, 2015 at 11:44 am

  3. Christie needs to go full New Jersey guido if he wants a chance to win. He needs to show up at the debate with lots of hair gel and jewelry and rail against the moulignans in a thick Jersey accent.

    Tom

    August 4, 2015 at 2:09 pm

    • Even though I’ve been disappointed in what Christie has accomplished with New Jersey, he can’t take all of the blame. Our entitlement systems, especially in the northeast are probably not fixable. If he can’t fix them, they probably can’t be reformed. My wife and I have been toying with the idea of moving to the South, specifically the Nashville area. It makes me sad to say that but I’m sick of our property taxes.

      JerseyGuy

      August 4, 2015 at 4:12 pm

      • Why Nashville of all places? I would assume the easy going, southern hospitality beats the rude Joisey Guido culture anytime of the year.

        JS

        August 4, 2015 at 5:23 pm

      • No! Go to Denver or someplace with tolerance for Yankees. You won’t like it here.

        Copperhead Joe

        August 4, 2015 at 6:05 pm

    • Tom, I assume you’re just joking. I can’t see the Republican party nominating anyone who came across as guido. Italian, yes. But guido, no. If being Italian were going to be a plus for a candidate (instead of simply a neutral factor) then why hasn’t it helped Rick Santorum?

      Maryk

      August 4, 2015 at 5:15 pm

      • I always appreciate your comments. I though you might enjoy this. http://www.thehistoryblog.com/archives/37711 Lost Guernico found by Soprano’s actor.

        Magicman

        August 4, 2015 at 10:08 pm

      • Santorum doesn’t play up his Italian-ness. He plays the boring Christian dork persona.

        Trump is from Queens, and he talks and sounds like a Queens guy, which has been winning him support. If Christie wants a chance, he should take a page out of Trump’s playbook and go Jersey guido. That doesn’t mean going full guido, but just enough to get support.

        Tom

        August 5, 2015 at 2:04 am

    • NY-NJ-Tristate area, White ethnic types, are usually not well received by the greater Meriprolestanis, who live in areas known as Wonder Bread towns, west of the Hudson. This is the reason why Giuliani, Bloomberg and Trump could never become president.

      JS

      August 4, 2015 at 5:30 pm

      • Trump is a decadent plutocrat with no political experience, Bloomberg’s accent would work against him as well as his height, although I don’t know if being Jewish would hurt or help him. And St. Rudy of 911 is just too downright weird to be president. The man spent 57 million dollars and ended up with a single delegate. He should be a punch line.

        Maryk

        August 4, 2015 at 9:05 pm

      • Trump isn’t a white ethnic.

        uatu

        August 4, 2015 at 10:02 pm

      • Trump is of Scottish and German descent and is a Presbyterian. That’s not really ethnic.

        Peter

        ironrailsironweights

        August 4, 2015 at 10:34 pm

      • Ethnic whites really means working-class immigrants who still cling to their native country’s culture and live in a neighborhood with their co-ethnics.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        August 4, 2015 at 11:47 pm

      • Trump was born and raised in Queens. He’s from Forest Hills. He sounds like a Queens guy. Culturally, he’s sort of Queens ethnic type.

        Tom

        August 5, 2015 at 2:12 am

    • he’s too fat to pull off the guido look, he should have one of the jersey shore guys be his personal trainer. that’ll get the female vote as well.

      GM

      August 4, 2015 at 6:09 pm

  4. OT, Atlantic article predicts half of american jobs will soon be automated, with traditionally male sectors impacted the hardest.

    http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2015/08/women-men-jobs-automation/400364/

    “…this pattern may result in an involuntary shift in the division of labor, with husbands tending to household duties after dropping their wives off at the office…”

    slithy toves

    August 4, 2015 at 2:16 pm

    • the atlantic loves to put men down, i am sure it is good for sales. in 2010, they had a cover article called “the end of men”.

      http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2010/07/the-end-of-men/308135/

      rivelino

      August 4, 2015 at 3:37 pm

      • ” What if modern, postindustrial society is simply better suited to women?” — a magazine can publish that. but if the same magazine wrote ” What if modern, postindustrial society is simply better suited to men?” the SJWs would burn it to the ground.

        rivelino

        August 4, 2015 at 3:39 pm

      • Hanna Rosin expounded on that article to write an entire book.

        http://www.amazon.com/The-End-Men-Rise-Women/dp/B00D9TA4VY/ref=cm_cr_pr_product_top?ie=UTF8

        slithy toves

        August 4, 2015 at 4:33 pm

      • “What if modern, postindustrial society is simply better suited to those with high IQs, like whites and Asians?” Filed under stories you’ll never see printed in the gaystream press.

        porkyboy

        August 4, 2015 at 10:41 pm

      • Modern, postindustrial society obviously IS better suited to women than to men, and least of all suited to high-IQ White men, because it requires endlessly subdivided “multitasking” and endlessly complex social posing. There is no Job to Get Done now (and there’s nothing Worth Doing), only “social situations” to maneuver through. This isn’t an anti-male point, it’s an anti-“modern, postindustrial society” point.

        Garr

        August 5, 2015 at 6:39 am

    • “…this pattern may result in an involuntary shift in the division of labor, with husbands tending to household duties after dropping their wives off at the office…”
      Why do they believe that office work will stay? A lot of office work has already been automated. Why would men need to drop wives off at the office? Women can drive themselves and cars will drive themselves, which is mentioned in the very same article.

      The concluding paragraph doesn’t follow at all from the premise. More single motherhood and african family patterns are the likely outcome, not matriarchy.

      acolyte

      August 4, 2015 at 6:01 pm

    • With no male employees there won’t be any need for all those HR hags. 😀

      Robert the Wise

      August 4, 2015 at 7:54 pm

    • I’ve worked in both blue and white collar and there is more fat to cut in office work.

      Men do office work better; it’s not even close; black males are better than white females. Under any competitive pressure a firm will go with the guys.

      Winston Smith

      August 4, 2015 at 9:43 pm

    • “Atlantic article predicts half of american jobs will soon be automated….”

      There could be a lot of hype associated with that prediction.

      http://edge.org/conversation/john_markoff-the-next-wave

      aandrews

      August 5, 2015 at 9:56 am

  5. “Trump Hits Huma” not because of her connections with the Muslim Brotherhood but because she’s “married to a deviant.”
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3180305/Trump-launches-attack-Huma-Abedin-deviant-husband-Anthony-Weiner-claims-pair-access-Clinton-s-secret-classified-emails.html
    Cowardly. It’s easy to be tough on Mexicans; not so easy to be tough on Muslims.

    garr

    August 4, 2015 at 2:23 pm

    • Lou Dobbs and Donals Trump don’t have to worry about some Mexican leader putting out a fatwa on them.

      njguy73

      August 4, 2015 at 10:19 pm

  6. O/T – Lion, do you have any idea why this video is called the LoftB?

    It has a few of your photos with the Hasidic and the Grand St Cooperative. Other than that, I see no connection between you and photos of Asian women and manicures.

    JS

    August 4, 2015 at 6:13 pm

    • I assume that’s made by some sort of scraper computer program. It’s spam. And a violation of copyright law. In the future, I guess I should file all of my photos with the copyright office so I can more easily sue.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      August 4, 2015 at 8:12 pm

      • I’ve never run my own website. Should you so desire to, would it be pretty to easy to identify what IP did the scraping? I assume there are a ton of admin tools, right?

        It just dawned on me that this site is a subdomain of wordpress.com. So maybe you don’t have access to IP logs.

        anon

        August 4, 2015 at 10:16 pm

  7. Trump and Huckabee definitely have the most experience in front of a camera. Regardless of what’s actually said, looking confident and relaxed wins support. I also expect Cruz and Carli to both do well. She obviously doesn’t have the support to go anywhere. I think she’s running for a VP or maybe a cabinet position.

    The real question is what is happening to the Hildebeast. Why is the left turning on her?

    destructure

    August 4, 2015 at 6:25 pm

    • Why is the Left turning on St. Clots-A-Lot? Because they’re increasingly convinced she can’t win. And they’re right — the moment St. Clots opens her shrill shovel-scraping-sidewalk voice, it’s lights out. She has zero zilch nada charisma, and her only qualification for president is VAGINA.

      porkyboy

      August 4, 2015 at 10:36 pm

  8. The more people learn about ¡Jeb! the more they dislike him. The more people learn about Walker the more they like him. He’s the only GOP candidate talking about limiting legal immigration.

    I’m surprised Cruz isn’t doing better. But he’s smart, and actually won debate titles so he’s being underrated.

    dsgntd_plyr

    August 4, 2015 at 6:26 pm

    • Ted Cruz lacks gravitas and comes off as mean-spirited.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      August 4, 2015 at 8:14 pm

      • How does he lack gravitas? Asking the question in seriousness. Alan Dershowitz said that he had Cruz as a student and that he was “off the charts brilliant.” Is it because Cruz is a social conservative? People who aren’t socons tend to think socons are not serious thinkers. I have no idea why.

        Maryk

        August 4, 2015 at 8:56 pm

    • I doubt debate competition success and political debate success go hand-in-hand. Political debate is all about emotional appeal and presentation at some low common denominator.

      anon

      August 4, 2015 at 10:19 pm

    • Ted Cruz’s face looks like that of a sex offender, that’s why.

      Bilbo Baggins

      August 5, 2015 at 8:57 pm

  9. I like your prediction about Christie showing well. I think Rubio will be another winner. Huckabee, I don’t see him making much noise.

    Karl

    August 4, 2015 at 9:33 pm

    • Rubio is out of his league, and it will be evident during the debate.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      August 4, 2015 at 11:45 pm

      • Rubio will certainly be left stuttering if the issue is immigration! However I’ve never seen him stumped on foreign affairs issues. He has a pretty good lock on those.

        Mike Street Station

        August 5, 2015 at 6:31 am

  10. My prediction is that Jeb Bush will shrug his shoulders a lot, use words like “sharing” and “caring” and enrapture the American electorate with his beta swag.

    B.T.D.T.

    August 4, 2015 at 10:05 pm

  11. Wrong. Scott Walker will come across as more serious, with more gravitas than either of the media celebutards, Huckabee and Trump. Yebby Bustamante has no gravitas and looks like an omega buttboi who makes vaginas dry shut, so he’s a nonstarter. Scott Walker will “win” the debate because he be the most presidential, less like a carnival barker than the two celebutards, and stronger than Yebby.

    porkyboy

    August 4, 2015 at 10:33 pm

  12. Did you see Rubio in New Hampshire? Looks like he went with Boehner to the tanning salon and got the I Don’t Want To Be A White Hispanic treatment. Mission accomplished, Senior. He may be dark now but he is a total lightweight. A Foreign policy expert from forcing himself to watch O’Reilly twice a week. Get back to us when you can watch a week’s worth, Marky Marco.
    Forget hugging Obama…Christie hugging Jerry Jones was like a fat kid making love to his first hot fudge sundae. That outfit at the Cowboy’s game made it even better…Congrats, Christie you got the part in Hairspray. And Christie was supposed to bring down the Rhetorical hammer on Obama at the Repub convention. Mission not accomplished. Grade F. Go back to yelling at school teachers, Principal Christie. I think I found your calling.
    At least Paul Ryan isn’t running…couldn’t even knockout Biden in a debate. Should demand a refund on the P90x, wimp.

    Knowmad

    August 5, 2015 at 1:54 am

  13. Which candidate is pro-Iran, pro-Assad, and anti-Maidan? That is the candidate I would like

    Latias

    August 5, 2015 at 3:22 am

    • Obama can’t run again.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      August 5, 2015 at 9:16 am

      • Obama is not pro-Assad. We will probably have boots on the ground attacking Assad before Obama’s term is over. Then Obama can realize his coveted role as restorer of the Sunni caliphate.

        The Anti-Gnostic

        August 5, 2015 at 12:19 pm

      • @gnostic
        Do you not recall the Republicans clamoring for Obongo to fund ISIS when the action in Syria first started? Back to planet Earth with you now.

        Viscount Douchenozzlé

        August 5, 2015 at 3:01 pm

    • Vladimir Putin is still in office.

      Viscount Douchenozzlé

      August 5, 2015 at 12:53 pm

  14. people need to stop talking about gravitas so much. obama is a meme president and gwb was a clown. i really dont know how much gravitas matters tha tmuch in winning elections anymore given the past two presidents.

    james n.s.w

    August 5, 2015 at 5:54 am

  15. Scott Walker looks like Thomas Aquinas with his bald spot. I wonder if he believes in the 40 day wait till you get your “soul”.

    jef

    August 5, 2015 at 8:34 am

  16. Scott Walker’s face is asymmetrical and he dropped out of college to take a pretend-job with the Red Cross. Then he proceeded to fall upwards into the governorship. $20K credit card debt on a $200K+ salary. Political hack and dullard.

    The Anti-Gnostic

    August 5, 2015 at 10:51 am

  17. What is this hard-on you have for Huckabee? He’s as phony as a televangelist. He’s not charismatic at all, he just has a polished presentation. Donald doesn’t even need to know the issues he can bomb them with wisecracks and one-liners and the others will crash and burn on lame cliches and beltway talk. Huckabee isn’t even dark horse material, The System Insiders all want Jeb no matter what. I expect them to freeze out Trump with made up charges like sexual harassment or something.
    Hillary and Jeb will be sooooo boring. She’s just old, and he has the personality of the snitch teacher’s pet everybody naturally hates.

    Joshua Sinistar

    August 6, 2015 at 7:25 pm


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