Lion of the Blogosphere

Trump vs. Giuliani

No, they are not running against each other. But in August 2007, Giuliani had an even more commanding lead in the polls than Trump does today. Why couldn’t Giuliani carry his lead to the finish line, and what does that say about whether Trump can do it?

I believe that there were two factors that killed Giuliani. The first one, I am unhappy to say, is that he proclaimed himself to be pro-choice, and there are just too many single-issue anti-abortion Republican primary voters for a pro-choice candidate to have a chance.

The second reason is that Giuliani didn’t have much of a message and wasn’t a very good debater.

Neither of these factors apply to Trump. Trump says he is pro-life, and in fact has demonstrated that in a big way by supporting shutting down the government in order to defund Planned Parenthood. If anything, Trump has gone over-the-top with this and will turn off pro-choice voters in the general election. Mitt Romney was able to win the nomination even though he was pro-life before he was pro-choice and never made abortion a big campaign issue. The litmus test for Republican electability is just saying that you are pro-life, so Trump has passed that test for sure.

Trump also has a big message, which is that America is declining as a nation and the reason is professional politicians who are good at getting elected but bad at doing anything useful after they win office. And he has made illegal immigration a big issue, and staked out a position to the right of every other Republican candidate. Critics will say that Trump’s message has no details, but history has shown that details are not necessary for getting elected. Maybe they are a small plus factor, but they are in no way essential.

The conventional wisdom about why Trump’s candidacy will fail has two related prongs: (1) they say he’s not a “serious” candidate; and (2) they assume that he will make some gaffe that will kill off his campaign.

Let’s address the seriousness factor first. I personally said that Trump is a bozo, and bozos lack the gravitas needed to be taken seriously as a presidential candidate. So one of the things that Trump needs to nail in tomorrow’s debate is that he needs to look presidential.

Many commenters at my blog have opined that Trump himself doesn’t take his candidacy seriously, and he is just doing it for the attention because he’s an attention whore, and he plans to drop out after he has his fun. I don’t think that’s true. The idea of being President of the United States is intoxicating to a lot of people who think they have a legitimate chance of attaining that position, and I believe it’s that way with Trump who is a braggart and wants to show other billionaires that he’s more successful than they are. What better way to be remembered forever than to be President of the United States?

The abortion issue previously discussed actually indicates that Trump is serious. He has conveniently changed his earlier pro-choice position to his current pro-life position in order to win the votes of Republican primary voters. Despite claiming that he is unlike other politicians who look at opinion polls to figure out what his position should be, he is actually acting just like a politician. Even his anti-illegal-immigrant stance could just be about looking at surveys and discovering that the average American is far to the right of politicians on this issue. Trump may see the anti-immigration issue as a massively undervalued property that other real-estate developers are too stupid to notice.

Can Trump go another fifteen months without making a campaign-killing gaffe? Despite Trump’s big personality, I don’t think he could have been successful in business without being able to control himself when he needs to. And furthermore, Trump already appears to have a Teflon nature about him. The mainstream media was gleeful after his remarks about McCain not being a hero. They thought he had already made his campaign-killing gaffe. They were wrong. Trump’s poll numbers are higher today than they were when Trump made the McCain comments.

It should be pointed out that instead of groveling and apologizing like so many other politicians would do (which never works out well), Trump refused to apologize and doubled down by claiming that he supports veterans and the armed forces more than McCain and the other candidates. The Trump strategy of not apologizing works a lot better in American politics. The mainstream liberal media takes any apology by a conservative as proof that the conservative is a bad person because he had something he felt so guilty about that he had to apologize for it. Conservative politicians have refused to learn that lesson, but Trump understands it.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

August 5, 2015 at 10:01 am

Posted in Politics

112 Responses

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  1. Those who think he plans to drop out made no effort to look closely at Trump and understand his mindset. Here are some quotes from “The Art Of The Deal”:

    “Think big. I like thinking big. I always have. If you’re going to be thinking anyway, you might as well think big. Most people think small because most people are afraid of success, afraid of making decisions, afraid of winning. And that gives people like me a great advantage.”

    “Somewhere out there are a few men with more innate talent at golf than Jack Nicklaus, or women with greater ability at tennis than Chris Evert or Martina Navratilova, but they will never lift a club or swing a racket and therefore will never find out how great they could have been. Instead, they’ll be content to sit and watch stars perform on television.”

    My guess is that Trump looked at Republican candidates and saw that there was nothing special about those people. So why not think big?

    WRB

    August 5, 2015 at 10:45 am

    • Possible, I guess. Also, the overarching thinking among GOP donors and strategists this cycle has been that you need someone who is really willing to be a total piece of trash and throw Hillary!! around a bit in the debates in a way that Mitt couldn’t or wouldn’t. Initially that man was expected to be Chris Christie, but why not Donald, really.

      Viscount Douchenozzlé

      August 5, 2015 at 2:09 pm

    • The analogy is super flawed. Anyone with the gifts, talents, and drive can pick up a golf club, get really good at golf, qualify for the Open, and if they have a lower score than their competitors, they win. You could be the best presidential candidate, but if enough low-IQ welfare-dependent losers think you’ll cut they GibsMeDats, they’ll vote Democrap to keep the Gibs a-rollin’.

      porkyboy

      August 5, 2015 at 2:27 pm

  2. Giuliani only appealed to upper-class media types. The media’s enthusiasm for him gave him a lot of name recognition, but once people actually started looking at the candidates his poll numbers tanked.

    Trump’s appeal is on solid ground. For people who care about the issues (that is to say immigration, the only issue of importance) he is the best, because, even if he isn’t sincere, at least he is moving the Overton Window. For people who care about bold leadership and celebrity, well he’s Trump. For people who care about abortion he said the magic words.

    T

    August 5, 2015 at 10:52 am

    • “Giuliani only appealed to upper-class media types. The media’s enthusiasm for him gave him a lot of name recognition, but once people actually started looking at the candidates his poll numbers tanked.”

      I don’t think Republican primary voters ever really got a chance. Guliani was running ahead in the polls for months prior to the Iowa caucus, but he skipped that and every primary until Florida. It was a positively stupid strategy. He probably figured (correctly) that he couldn’t win in Iowa against evangelicals, but by not participating, he deprived himself of screen and print time for months while Republicans were making up their minds. By the time he decided to get his hands dirty, it was way too late.

      Mike Street Station

      August 5, 2015 at 1:47 pm

      • Actually Mike, the truth is very different. Rudy’s lead started to slip in mid-November and by late December was gone. He decided not to compete in the early contests (Iowa, New Hampshire) because polls at that time showed that the harder he campaigned in those states the LOWER his polling went. He didn’t want to lose a contest early on and seem to confirm the belief that he was a very weak candidate. So he insisted that Florida would be his firewall. It was a smart strategy because it at least gave him time to see if he could build up momentum out of Florida. When he came in third in Florida the game was over. Some pro-Rudy political writers entered the twilight zone by saying that Rudy should just go into states and try harder to convince people that he should be the nominee despite being a social liberal. Who ever wins a nomination by convincing voters that they should settle? Rudy just had no real constituency in the Republican party – and sooner or later both he and the Republican primary voters would have to face this reality.

        However, because I did research on the Giuliani candidacy and what was written about it, I discovered Lion’s blog. So I AM grateful to Rudy for at least one thing!

        Maryk

        August 5, 2015 at 9:29 pm

  3. Both will never become president for the mere fact that they are New Yorkers, who aren’t “White” enough for the general White populace, west of the Hudson.

    Imagine Rick Santorum was Rick Santorini. He would be even more laughable for what he is. People would view him as a NYC-Tristate area ethnic type, not Anglo enough to run the White House. The same goes for Chris Christie, too Guidoish and too Northeastern, non-Anglo for Meriprolestan.

    JS

    August 5, 2015 at 11:08 am

    • Both will never become president for the mere fact that they are New Yorkers, who aren’t “White” enough for the general White populace, west of the Hudson

      Trump is about as White as it gets. He’s a chubby, redheaded German Irish English Protestant rich kid.

      We’re all kinda non-White compared to that.

      Imagine Rick Santorum was Rick Santorini.

      Then he’d be Greek.

      You are a broken record. All you do his bitch and moan about America being nothing but proles unlike your precious Canada and Europe. And then complain about the Anglo Threat out there in Middle America.

      Rifleman

      August 5, 2015 at 12:43 pm

      • For your record, I never said Santorini was Italian. Furthermore, the Greek name is derivative from the Italians who once controlled parts of Greece. The word Santorini isn’t Greek!

        Then Trump is too much of a New Yorker, for greater America. He speaks in a loud New Yawk accent. That alone is 3 strikes, you’re fahyad!

        JS

        August 5, 2015 at 1:17 pm

      • Proles will identify with his non-elite accent.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        August 5, 2015 at 1:41 pm

      • It should be pointed out that instead of groveling and apologizing like so many other politicians would do (which never works out well), Trump refused to apologize and doubled down by claiming that he supports veterans and the armed forces more than McCain and the other candidates.

        By God it worked for Clinton.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        August 5, 2015 at 8:58 pm

      • Bubba Clinton, that is.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        August 5, 2015 at 8:58 pm

    • You should spend some time outside of NY. Regular whites don’t view Santorum as Italian at all. He’s just another white guy. Only in NY do people think about who is Italian and who isn’t.

      T

      August 5, 2015 at 1:02 pm

      • That’s because Santaforum doesn’t bear a typical Italian sounding name. And he doesn’t come off as an ethnic type from NYC.

        JS

        August 5, 2015 at 1:19 pm

      • “And he doesn’t come off as an ethnic type from NYC.”

        so why did you say this:

        “Both will never become president for the mere fact that they are New Yorkers, who aren’t “White” enough for the general White populace, west of the Hudson”

        The reason that Santorum will never become president is that he will never be the nominee, and the reason that he will never be the nominee is that he isn’t liked by the establishment. He would need Trump-levels of charisma and money to overcome that handicap, neither of which he possesses.

        If you actually took the time to study the candidates you would see that being non-white (Herman Cain, Ben Carson) or able to pass as non-white (Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio) are massive advantages.

        T

        August 5, 2015 at 3:11 pm

      • Republicans desperately want to prove to liberals they are not evil racists. Of course it will never work, liberals just move the goalposts of what it means to be racist. “Racist” means someone who liberals disagree with.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        August 5, 2015 at 3:13 pm

    • The isle of Santorini got its name from crusaders who captured it. The Greek name for it was Thera.

      CamelCaseRob

      August 5, 2015 at 8:14 pm

      • They were Latins, hence the Italianish name.

        This is on the European Side of Turkey, along the Bosphorus Sea, known as the Roman Castles, built by the Ottomans, before the conquest of Constantinople. They were used as turrets, where cannons were placed to shoot any guidos passing by. Many Italian ships crossing the strait, without permission would be bada bing bada boom. The Italians controlled parts of Greece, before the arrival of the Ottoman Turks, and were eventually driven out by them.

        JS

        August 6, 2015 at 10:14 am

      • “They were used as turrets, where cannons were placed to shoot any guidos passing by”

        I don’t know why, but I found this line hysterically funny!

        Maryk

        August 6, 2015 at 10:49 am

      • O/T: MaryK, A guido called into a radio station from Staten Island, where he complained about the media being overflowing with too much information, causing him to retreat into tranquility, or back to his little hole, somewhere in SI. Prolerochial should be a new word!

        Some of my detractors here complained about my anti-Americanism on this blog. To me, America has devolved into a simpleton prole land devoid of any real substance, and that’s what it should be anyway. Hence, my long term exodus from this country, in about a few days.

        Donald Trump would work out well in a Jerry Springer Session!

        JS

        August 6, 2015 at 12:44 pm

  4. Trump is running as a pro life candidate, although he used to be pro choice. He probably won’t nominate a Supreme Court hard liner on this issue, so neither side should get worked up about him.

    Planned parenthood should get defended because it is a sleazy, corrupt entity. Defunding, even killing, planned parenthood doesn’t put one abortionist out of work. It just kills some crony capitalism.

    Rotten

    August 5, 2015 at 11:40 am

    • As a political issue, don’t you find the notion of Planned Parenthood-as-evil-cronyist-conspiracy a bit of a stretch? A women’s health organisation that sells medical waste to research organisations at cost?

      Surely there are other, more egregious examples of crony capitalism in this country for you to wring your hands over. Military procurement and Halliburton/TRW/Academi/Palantir/etc. Goldman/JPM/Morgan Stanley/BOFAML on carbon cap and trade. For fuck’s sake, mate. Come back to earth here.

      Viscount Douchenozzlé

      August 6, 2015 at 12:54 pm

  5. Lion, I love your insight (especially with respect to Trump not apologizing — very astute), but please don’t miss the forest for the trees when analyzing the GOP horse race. The federal debt is now $18.2 trillion, and even if one cut all non-entitlement spending to $0 it would still result in a deficit. Trump has stated that he will not cut entitlement spending, and it doesn’t seem like any other candidate has the ability to do so either. So the government will continue operating at a deficit. There’s no way to make America great again under such circumstances.

    In addition, there’s a very real chance that whoever the next administration is will be left holding the bag of a collapsing economy, which has been artificially propped up so that the Lightwalker could pass his radical leftist policy goals and be held up to be the ultimate anti-HBD example.

    JC

    JC

    August 5, 2015 at 11:55 am

    • This was an analysis of the candidates’ potential for winning, not a prediction that Trump will magically accomplish great things if elected.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      August 5, 2015 at 12:08 pm

      • Trump might raise taxes. It took a Nixon to go to China.

        CamelCaseRob

        August 5, 2015 at 8:21 pm

  6. Liberal politics is basically the kids who got beat up during recess trying to feel powerful using the organs of state.

    Why else would a republican be able to win the governorship of a state like Massachusetts?

    People know deep down that you need a serious man to run things, and leftists tend to not be serious people- they have chips on their shoulders. Liberalism is practically a mental illness. The “silent majority” understand this. Leftists are creepy losers.

    Where does the stereotype of the effeté liberal pussy come from? Pajama boy isn’t going to fight crime, buckle down on the budget, or be in favor of rule of law and a champion of good ol fashioned right and wrong.

    Now, in a mostly homogenous society, I think liberals are useful. We need everyone to have a well rounded and functioning society. But when they simply want to throw open the border to invaders and have everyone replaced and the society destroyed, then it’s time for the serious men to take over and run things.

    The entire West is out of equilibrium.

    jjbees

    August 5, 2015 at 11:59 am

    • Republicans are a bunch of pansies too. They aren’t shouting death to the Liberalcrats, who have the helm of this nation for awhile. They just sit back and take a ride.

      JS

      August 5, 2015 at 12:38 pm

    • And the major problem: Most American White women love liberalism.

      JS

      August 5, 2015 at 12:39 pm

      • And here’s another problem: Who would you take side with, based on the images of these women?

        A Democrat and Clinton Aide:

        https://mariomurilloministries.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/kirsten-powers-headshot-3a-3001.jpg?w=357&h=357

        And this man lady, loud mouthed, Republican:

        JS

        August 5, 2015 at 12:47 pm

      • seems like you’re cherry-picking, JS.

        elisabeth hasselback is GOP

        stacey dash is GOP

        sarah palin (she’s pretty cute for a politician) is GOP

        S.E. Cupp is GOP

        swank

        August 5, 2015 at 1:28 pm

      • “And the major problem: Most American White women love liberalism.”

        Democrats have not won the majority of white women since 1992.

        Mike Street Station

        August 5, 2015 at 1:42 pm

      • That’s a total apples to oranges comparison. Coulter is 53.

        jasonbayz

        August 5, 2015 at 1:43 pm

      • Single white women vote Democrat. Married white women swing GOP. Yet another sign that the US is no longer a serious country, we let our most inexperienced and coddled citizens define our policies.

        Abundance Mentality

        August 5, 2015 at 2:09 pm

      • Coulter wasn’t much of a looker during her prime.

        JS

        August 5, 2015 at 2:27 pm

    • maybe, maybe not. but GOP politics is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southern_strategy

      Pajama boy isn’t going to fight crime, buckle down on the budget, or be in favor of rule of law and a champion of good ol fashioned right and wrong.

      Obama has deported more illegals than any other sitting President; no one mentions this or gives him credit because they do not care what he does. it’s easy to see why they do not care. and it’s for this same reason that few, if any, in these parts can even admit that he likely has a very high IQ.

      GOP “politics” = race.

      swank

      August 5, 2015 at 12:45 pm

      • maybe, maybe not. but GOP politics is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southern_strategy

        Nope. Never was. That’s a myth repeated endlessly.

        The “West” was always central to the Republican strategy. Look at all their Presidents and candidates. Mostly Western, NONE Southern. Republicans dominated the West during the so called Southern Strategy.

        Democrats have had at least four southerners – Johnson, Carter, Clinton, Gore.

        GOP “politics” = race.

        Nope.

        Democrat “politics” = RACE. More specifically, the demonization of White America, esp. Southerners.

        That’s their reason for being pro illegal immigration = more non-White Democrats.

        That’s why they worship and elected Obama = RACE. He symbolizes a christ-like figure to wash away the Sins of White America, ie Republicans.

        The Democrats do have a demographic advantage and it’s increasing due to their successful racist anti-White America agenda. That’s their South of the Border Strategy!!!!

        Obama has deported more illegals than any other sitting President; no one mentions this or gives him credit because they do not care what he does.

        They notice and care what he does and don’t like it. Obama has presided over a massive influx of millions of illegals and has deported trivial numbers by comparison.

        That’s his policy and although it is anti-black in results it is intended to be anti-White, which is the Democrats driving agenda.

        He has presided over a massive increase in the debt and a stagnated economy.

        But that doesn’t matter because he is black and a symbol of redemption in a world of Evil White people, ie White American Republicans.

        Rifleman

        August 5, 2015 at 1:34 pm

      • Obama changed the definition of “deported.” Previously, illegals caught at the border and sent back weren’t counted as deported.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        August 5, 2015 at 1:42 pm

      • Nope. Never was. That’s a myth repeated endlessly.

        sure guy. that must be why the south’s electoral votes far outstrip the “West” red state electoral votes.

        Democrat “politics” = RACE

        the demographic that was the most emphatically in favor of the new deal were southern Democrats. in 30 years, are you saying they all suddenly decided to leave the party because of a random change of heart? no. they left because of race. the truth hurts, i know.

        Obama changed the definition of “deported.” Previously, illegals caught at the border and sent back weren’t counted as deported.

        ok so instead he stepped up border enforcement and no one gives him plaudits. same difference. and Obama didn’t redefine that stat, Dubya did.

        swank

        August 5, 2015 at 2:01 pm

      • It’s not hard to “deport more illegals” where there are just more people around in general. It kinda goes with the territory.

        Abundance Mentality

        August 5, 2015 at 2:03 pm

      • Nope. Never was. That’s a myth repeated endlessly.

        sure guy. that must be why the south’s electoral votes far outstrip the “West” red state electoral votes.

        Nope. Republicans used to OWN California and nearly every other Western states. You might have actually heard of two obscure California politicians – Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan.

        They won the West and it’s massive number of electoral votes all through the so called Southern Strategy.

        the demographic that was the most emphatically in favor of the new deal were southern Democrats.

        in 30 years, are you saying they all suddenly decided to leave the party because of a random change of heart? no. they left because of race. the truth hurts, i know.

        I’m not the one hurt by White Americans DEMANDING respect for their RACE’s interests. More power to them. Its the Democrats loss if they don’t want to admit it.

        But that doesn’t mean there was a so called Southern Strategy. That’s a myth. The West was central to the Republican strategy. Just because there is no catchy term for it doesn’t make it untrue.

        Obama changed the definition of “deported.” Previously, illegals caught at the border and sent back weren’t counted as deported.

        ok so instead he stepped up border enforcement and no one gives him plaudits.

        What is your obsession with defending your boy, Obama. “Boohoo is not getting credit”. He’s gotten more credit for things he doesn’t deserve than just about anybody in history.

        Fact remains he has intentionally presided over the illegal influx of millions of people into this country. And he and the Democrats have done so for RACIAL reasons even though it is putting direct pressure on the black poor and working class as much as any group.

        Democrat strategy = RACE. Simple as that.

        Why does it hurt to admit that?

        Rifleman

        August 5, 2015 at 2:39 pm

      • Nope. Republicans used to OWN California and nearly every other Western states

        and then they lost those states when they became the party of the former CSA. so?

        Republicans dominated the West during the so called Southern Strategy.

        it’s ongoing. and as it has progressed, the GOP’s base has shifted.

        I’m not the one hurt by White Americans DEMANDING respect for their RACE’s interests.

        by voting against their own interests?

        That’s a myth.

        Yes. Lee Atwater must have made it all up and Ken Mehlman just apologized for a figment of everyone’s imagination.

        What is your obsession with defending your boy, Obama.

        it’s not about defending Obama, it’s about revealing what the GOP actually is.
        Democrats are pieces of shit, but Republicans are a joke.

        it is putting direct pressure on the black poor and working class as much as any group.

        i don’t disagree. i’m not sure the left disagrees either. but the first step is to make America a non-shitty society, and it doesn’t start there. it starts with putting capital back in check.

        swank

        August 5, 2015 at 3:30 pm

      • You really believe in creating your own reality and that we have forgotten Obama’s unconstitutional amnesty, or the green light for the train from nowhere in Central America full of illegals? High IQ? Why then does the arrogant Obama keep his records under lock and key when he should be happy for the whole world to see them?

        vdorta

        August 5, 2015 at 5:59 pm

      • What swanky is really saying is “Whitey be rayciss!” Meanwhile, he supports affirmative action.

        destructure

        August 5, 2015 at 7:42 pm

      • yes, by class so that the group who needs it most — prole whites — gets it. and of course they’d never vote for it…which must be why they are despised by their overlords.

        swank

        August 5, 2015 at 8:59 pm

      • the demographic that was the most emphatically in favor of the new deal were southern Democrats. in 30 years, are you saying they all suddenly decided to leave the party because of a random change of heart? no. they left because of race. the truth hurts, i know.

        So what if they did – you and other liberals also believe in the mental inferiority of blacks with your condescending applause over laughably scarce black accomplishments; and, more commonly, debatable black ‘accomplishments’; excusing their endless, catastrophic, failures; and subsidizing of their existence.

        Swank’s commentary of black mental impairment is equivalent to a coach screaming ‘Touchdown’ when a struggling special olympics player manages to drop a football on the floor.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        August 5, 2015 at 9:18 pm

      • “can even admit that he likely has a very high IQ”
        Obama didn’t make National Merit Scholar semifinalist. That puts a soft ceiling on his IQ around 129.
        I’ve never heard him speak a single sentence that would rise to the level of materially contributing to an above average blog discussion. What are the indicators of this very high IQ?

        Copperhead Joe

        August 5, 2015 at 11:44 pm

      • Magna Cum Laude at Havard Law School.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        August 6, 2015 at 12:37 am

      • “What swanky is really saying is “Whitey be rayciss!” Meanwhile, he supports affirmative action.”

        If swanky has white kids/grandkids, they’ll eventually turn on him as an idiot for giving away whatever ‘privilege’ whites have, so, at least you can take pleasure in the fact that they’ll piss on his grave.

        Oh, I’m sure he’ll say they’ll be as enlightened as he is. Nietzsche described European society as skating on thin ice in the late 19th century, without ever thinking the ice would crack. It did, as will the thin ice liberal white people in the West are skating on today. Only this time, the war won’t be across artificial political boundaries, it will be white-on-white across ideological lines.

        You don’t even have to want it to happen, to know it will happen.

        Abundance Mentality

        August 6, 2015 at 12:12 am

      • There was no Southern Strategy. Nixon won almost every state.

        map

        August 6, 2015 at 2:47 am

      • Democrats won 90% of the black vote through racebaiting and welfare. Accusing the GOP of using a Southern Strategy is just part of their racebaiting. But the GOP didn’t do anything racial. They merely sat back and let Dems and racist blacks drive whites away. In fact, that’s what Kevin Phillips, whom Dems allege developed a “Southern Strategy” said would happen. Dems were the ones using a racist strategy. Philips merely predicted the outcome.

        destructure

        August 6, 2015 at 7:01 pm

      • Obama didn’t make National Merit Scholar semifinalist. That puts a soft ceiling on his IQ around 129.

        An optimistic ceiling.

        Magna Cum Laude at Havard Law School.

        Almost certainly awarded only because of race – I’ve never heard Obama say something intelligent impromptu or do anything on his own requiring decent smarts.

        At least previous Democratic presidents could prove they had some brains. Carter was an engineer, LBJ is still regarded as the most cunning Senate majority leader ever, Bill Clinton was admitted to Yale Law and could talk his way out of anything. Obama has no proof of any intelligence above 110 IQ. Max.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        August 6, 2015 at 7:29 pm

      • “Carter was an engineer” big deal, there are millions of mediocre engineers. Only very few people can make magna cum laude at Havard Law School, which is based on BLIND grading.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        August 6, 2015 at 8:12 pm

      • Almost certainly awarded only because of race

        so in addition to knowing nothing about heritability, you also know nothing about elite institutions: law school in particular. hint: grading is blind. good to know!

        swank

        August 6, 2015 at 8:38 pm

      • oh lion already said that. i will add then, that it is also very unlikely that Obama ‘padded’ a dismal performance with “soft” law electives. your 1L year makes or breaks and those are the fundamentals and those are the big classes where the curve is brutal. an “A” means that you either mentally bludgeoned your competition or got lucky. magna cum or summa leaves no doubt as to which.

        swank

        August 6, 2015 at 8:43 pm

      • so in addition to knowing nothing about heritability

        This from the clown who thinks racial differences in height aren’t genetic. I also know that if two ethnic or racial groups differ in IQ variance because of genetics, they also must vary in average IQ because of genetics.

        you also know nothing about elite institutions:

        Provide us with evidence Obama is intelligent by quoting three statements of his. Any three.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        August 6, 2015 at 9:52 pm

      • that isn’t what I said…I said the evidence you believe demonstrates genetic differences doesn’t demonstrate that there are genetic differences, i.e. heritability stats and an assertion from Jensen.

        the evidence is that he went to HLS and earned MCL. if you had any idea what that meant you wouldn’t even be pursuing this or thinking your subjective judgment of how he speaks could stand in.

        swank

        August 7, 2015 at 11:31 am

    • On the contrary – this is true only of American leftists. Trotsky, Lenin, Dzerzhinsky, etc., were all the real deal. Countries full of mildly retarded peasants as Russia, China, the USA, various Middle Eastern states, etc., need a responsible strongman to run things; whether he subscribes to this ideology or that ideology is barely even material.

      All I can do is hold out hope that Donald is indeed a real candidate AND drafts Mitt as VP, but in the absence of that, another 8 years of Bush/Clintonist crony capitalism will be an utter disaster and at least with a populist lib like Sanders you can potentially stem the tide of labor market substitution i.e., immigration in a halfway civilized manner.

      Viscount Douchenozzlé

      August 5, 2015 at 1:13 pm

      • All I can do is hold out hope that Donald is indeed a real candidate

        Surely, his Lordship meant ‘a real dictator’.

        And what a dictator Trump would be!

        The Undiscovered Jew

        August 5, 2015 at 9:21 pm

      • All indications point to his also being an utter disaster without some overarching voice of reason and experience (i.e., Mitt Romney, because there is no one else in the Republican party qualified) to weigh in. We are, after all, talking about someone running on a platform of trade and labor market protectionism who apparently doesn’t even bother to produce his own campaign swag in this country. You, of course, have the option of taking his admittedly somewhat compelling ad campaign to heart, but I’m afraid there is very little of substance there to absorb beyond the rhetoric.

        Viscount Douchenozzlé

        August 6, 2015 at 12:49 pm

      • We are, after all, talking about someone running on a platform of trade and labor market protectionism who apparently doesn’t even bother to produce his own campaign swag in this country.

        The campaign is mere garnish in preparation for the main event when Trump declares military rule.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        August 6, 2015 at 7:19 pm

    • “Serious men” did not beat kids up during recess when they, the serious men, were kids. Nor were the kids who got beaten up during recess “effete” or “pussies”. The beaten-up were usually nerdy weirdos, i.e. aspies and add/spectrumoid freaks. Now, nerdy weirdos are often described by the women that they sneak hopeless looks at as “creepy losers”, but “effete liberal pussies” are never described as “creepy losers”; rather, the effete liberal pussies are having sex with those very women. True, those women may now be 39 years old, but they are still fairly attractive, pushing their first and only babies around in strollers in the vicinity of Carroll and Court, or waiting in line at Trader Joe’s with cartloads of vegetables to feed to their effete liberal pussy husbands, who sleep with them in $3000/month apartments or co-own $2.5 million dollar houses with them between Court and Clinton.

      garr

      August 5, 2015 at 3:18 pm

      • “creepy loser” types (i’m not hetero, but if i were, i think i would fall into this camp) tend to gravitate towards manosphere / alt-right / libertarian view points. in high school, the guys that grew up to be effete liberal types were pretty gregarious and well liked by girls and teachers.

        GM

        August 6, 2015 at 4:59 pm

  7. “Trump may see the anti-immigration issue as a massively undervalued property that other real-estate developers are too stupid to notice.”

    Ha! Yes the anti immigration issue has been ignored by virtually every actual politician in spite of the polling on it’s popularity. I guess that just goes to show that politicians don’t just mindlessly follow the polls. They follow the donors.

    Mike Street Station

    August 5, 2015 at 12:11 pm

  8. Good Morning Lion,
    Living in NY City as you do, I think it’s difficult for you to understand the power of the
    issue of gun ownership and the 2nd Amendment in rural America.
    Since virtually no one in NYC even knows someone who has a gun, they can’t imagine
    a state like Vermont, NH, or Maine, where a person can carry a gun without a permit,
    or walk into Dick’s Sporting Goods, or Walmart and buy a rifle after an instant background check..

    One reason Al Gore did not become president is because he lost his home state of
    Tennessee over his pro gun-control stance.

    Giuliani & Christie also suffer from this handicap – Too much anti-gun baggage.
    Neither are electable in the flyover country Republican primaries.
    Trump does not carry this baggage. (I believe he has his own NYC carry permit.)
    No pro-gun Republican will trust, or vote for anyone who was a prosecutor in NY or NJ –
    the two most anti-gun states in America.
    Some gun owners even refer to these states as the “slave states”

    I believe that the pro-gun vote may be even more uncompromising & inflexible than the anti-abortion vote.
    Minus the Electoral College system, this issue might go away, but as long as rural states still count in the
    Senate and in Presidential elections, a candidate’s stance on guns & gun control, will weigh heavily in
    an election’s results.

    I look forward to voting for Trump in the 2015 NH Primary.

    Nedd Ludd

    August 5, 2015 at 12:24 pm

    • And any gun owner in flyover states knows this, even if we may indivdually be for things like universal background checks. Guns, not abortion, is the sacred cow of the GOP. Abortion rights are the same thing for the Democrats.

      Bilbo Baggins

      August 5, 2015 at 8:45 pm

  9. I believe that there were two factors that killed Giuliani.

    You left out that he is ugly, has a slight speech impediment and not only lacks charisma he is kind of off putting.

    Maybe a President Trump will make Giuliani Attorney General.

    Rifleman

    August 5, 2015 at 12:36 pm

    • HBD says look out for Giuliani. His father served time in Sing Sing.

      jef

      August 5, 2015 at 4:07 pm

      • True that. Giuliani was a creepy bastard, but a decent mayor.

        Yakov

        August 5, 2015 at 9:59 pm

  10. If Trump supports a moratorium of any length on immigration he adds 5-10 points overnight, (the MSM will call this a gaff) I’d faint, then when I wake up I’ll volunteer for his campaign*. Another thing that moves Trump 1 step closer to the nomination/WH is if he commits to the “Not a politician” thing and promises 1-term.

    *Now that you’re without a full-time job Lion, why don’t you offer to work for Trump in SWPL outreach? You know you want to Make. America. Great. Again.

    DSGNTD_PLYR

    August 5, 2015 at 2:01 pm

  11. Despite what the media says Trump is an amazing campaigner:

    – “Make America Great Again” – that is a great slogan and people remember it and associate it with Trump. The only other memorable campaign slogan out there “Change We Can Believe In” by Obama. And Obama ran a great campaign.

    – Successful conservative politicians must be able to bypass the media and speak directly to Americans. Trump is very good at this. He has done hard hitting interviews with hostile liberals journalists and he never lets them trap him. He answers there question by speaking directly to the audience.

    Jimi

    August 5, 2015 at 2:03 pm

  12. Being pro-abortion isn’t very manly. Don’t we want women to have their kids? (It let’s us know who they’ve been banging.)

    Dave

    August 5, 2015 at 2:39 pm

  13. You forgot that Giuliania, like Romney, was a boring-schmoring no-charisma betaboy.

    charisma >>> “gravitas”

    Tarl

    August 5, 2015 at 2:50 pm

    • See, I think Rudy is so effeminate that I accidentally put an “a” on the end of his name!

      Tarl

      August 5, 2015 at 2:51 pm

    • “Giuliania” sounds like the name of a country – a happy place where you can be married three times, parade a mistress around in public while mayor, live with two gay friends after your wife throws you out – and yet still be considered acceptable to social conservatives largely because you tell people off and liberals don’t like you. Unfortunately, for Rudy, no such country exists.

      Maryk

      August 5, 2015 at 9:00 pm

      • Sure it does. It’s called New York. (I’m teasing you because I know you live there.)

        Dave

        August 6, 2015 at 4:10 pm

  14. Excellent analysis. I am still excited about Trump since he is the only Republican who fights back. I am a little worried about the anti-abortion nonsense. But I predict he will not campaign on this (just like the other Republicans never really campaign on it after the primaries). I am also a bit worried he will start yodeling about increasing legal immigration while still fighting illegal immigration (why even bother then?).

    There is one more issue out there that only Trump will tackle: affirmative action. Not saying he will. But given that some of the GOP candidates support quotas (Rubio, Paul) and the others are afraid to be called racist (everyone else) he is the only hope.

    Just like immigration and crime, it is a HUGE winner for the GOP. And it is just lying there waiting to be picked up by a Republican who is not a p*ssy.

    Of course, there is the problem ….

    Bernie

    August 5, 2015 at 3:50 pm

  15. I agree with your point that a motivation for Trump wanting to be President could be to rub it in the faces of other billionaires. I think it was in “Born Rich” that Ivanka talked about how her father had tried really hard to be accepted in the upper class, but he never was because he was “new money” (i.e. prole). She said that he hoped he could get his kids into the Upper Class by sending them to the right schools and clubs, etc. during their childhoods.

    theoak

    August 5, 2015 at 4:52 pm

    • Trumps isn’t new money.

      Lion of the Judah-sphere

      August 5, 2015 at 9:06 pm

      • He is to the old money in the Hamptons, on Nantucket, etc.

        theoak

        August 6, 2015 at 9:33 am

  16. Giuliani had some baggage Trump presently lacks. Namely, a recent (at the time of the campaign) ugly, public divorce whereupon he married his mistress- very tacky. While Trump has divorced it was a while ago and his present marriage is somewhat long lived and I don’t believe his current wife was ever a mistress.

    Giuliani was- again at the time of the campaign- recently dxed with cancer. He also has a tacky NYC accent that to flyover ears is grating and blowhard. Christie has the same accent problem but in NJ terms. Trump does have an accent but it’s not severe.

    slithy toves

    August 5, 2015 at 6:00 pm

    • The accent part is important: Trump has a NY accent, but you have to be looking for it to notice it. That’s the key difference. It will not hurt him at all.

      Bilbo Baggins

      August 5, 2015 at 9:04 pm

      • The real turn off that greater Meriprolestanis have with these NYC-Tristate Area candidates, is their pushiness, reminiscence of the aggressive attitude, that one needs, in order to be on the top of the heap, in NYC.

        JS

        August 6, 2015 at 10:56 am

    • Al Smith had that problem, when people outside the Northeast heard him speak.

      jef

      August 5, 2015 at 10:21 pm

  17. I wonder why Swank doesn’t comment over at Sailer, home of the new “Southern Strategy.” For almost a year now, Sailer’s been advocating that Republicans explicitly label the Dems as “the Black party.” This keeping in mind that the other constituents of the Dem coalition, I.e. asians, latinos, LGBT, don’t really like paying for black dysfunction any more than we do. Pro tip, Swank: sailerites aren’t particularly worried about your calling them “racist.” Their response is, “and that’s only rational, right?”

    Faubus & Friends

    August 5, 2015 at 7:09 pm

    • the entire point about racism and the Southern Strategy has nothing to do with anybody over Sailer or Sailerites or HBDers. the point is that this base may be revealed for what it is, which will put the GOP elite in a tough spot. maybe it will fracture. maybe the south will get muzzled. hopefully!

      swank

      August 5, 2015 at 9:04 pm

  18. Giuliani is 5’9″; Trump is 6’3″.

    Mark Caplan

    August 5, 2015 at 8:15 pm

  19. The fact swank repeated the misleading figure about deportations means that he lives in a Huffpo bubble chamber and isn’t to be taken seriously.

    CamelCaseRob

    August 5, 2015 at 8:29 pm

    • the fact that CCR can’t realize that a) it didn’t harm my point and b) it was rejoined by another misleading fact about the definition: that Obama rather than Bush redefined it, means that his disregard is actually a high compliment.

      swank

      August 7, 2015 at 3:54 pm

  20. “Why couldn’t Giuliani carry his lead to the finish line”

    ……because he couldn’t even carry it to the starting line. His “lead” was gone by late December before any of the actual voting began.

    Maryk

    August 5, 2015 at 9:04 pm

  21. Lion,
    Any comments about Vincente Montano?

    JerseyGuy

    August 5, 2015 at 9:32 pm

  22. Trump is scratching his head wondering why all the other guys (and gal) haven’t figured out how politics work (aren’t they professionals?) They’re running all over the place, busting their asses, spending tons of money, tailoring their messages not to offend, toeing the party lines to attract big donors, and becoming political whores in the bargain. Their cravenness is so obvious that people are nauseated just watching them dance and listening to their bland meaningless stream of poll-tested drivel.

    Trump realizes, WITHOUT SPENDING A DIME, that the game is to win – that means win early, win big, and win always. And what is winning in a celebrity culture? It is sucking all the oxygen out of the air so your competition cannot breathe and thus withers away. The media spotlight is EVERYTHING. Capture and maintain that, and you have won. The only message that matters is the one that keeps you at the head of the polls. And that message ain’t amnesty so white males have to speak Spanish in their own homes. It’s a muscular Anglo patriotic nationalism. Always has been. Simple.

    Trump realizes there’s no point in following the political rulebook. It was written by those in power to keep outsiders from wresting that power from them. Suck up to major donors? Why? If you’re the big kahuna (and Trump IS!) they HAVE to come to you at some point to beg your permission to get on the bandwagon. Sheldon Adelson? He’d better be practicing his ass-kissing because he’s got a big one to smooch in his immediate future. NRA, Chamber, NAACP, unions, Reince Priebus fer crissakes? Line up, boys; you all get 5 minutes 5 each (except for you, Reince – you just FOAD!)

    This thing has monstrous, vital, pumping legs that will walk right over the legions of ankle-biting pundits, stride all the way to general election and, very possibly and plausibly, march right into the White House. My take.

    Arthur Willingham, Jr.

    August 5, 2015 at 10:05 pm

  23. You are forgetting that Trump is a TV personality. Millions of Americans watch his reality show every week where he interviews contestants, quickly make decisions and fires someone. Millions of low information voters think that is the kind of quick, decisive action is presidential and what we need to straighten out Washington.

    The reality is a little different. In many respects US Presidents have much less power and authority than a corporate President. Presidents can not even hire their direct reports (cabinet officers) without approval from the Senate. They can fire top level government officials, but they frequently have to get the Senates approval to replace them. Lower level government officials are much more difficult to fire because of civil service rules.

    Trump has no government experience. I expect he would be totally frustrated by the constraints on US President.

    mikeca

    August 5, 2015 at 11:07 pm

    • He can hire some ex-Senator to be his chief of staff and who will do all of the real work while Trump makes speeches. Problem solved.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      August 6, 2015 at 12:35 am

      • Then Trump can fire his ex-Senator chief of staff for not getting anything done.

        mikeca

        August 6, 2015 at 12:36 pm

    • I think the “constraints on the presidency” are over-stated. I have a hard time believing that if a true Executive like a Trump or a Romney were president, they could get shit done very quickly, including firing people at all levels. I think most presidents just don’t care that much, and fundamentally aren’t the kind of trim the fat, get shit done guys that would devote the personal energy to making it happen.

      "prole" and proud

      August 6, 2015 at 8:08 am

      • should read …I have a hard time believing that if a true Executive like a Trump or a Romney were president, they could not get shit done very quickly…

        "prole" and proud

        August 6, 2015 at 8:09 am

  24. Trump has high unfavorables. Sure, he does well in a field of over a dozen candidates, but he’s got a low ceiling. When the field gets whittled away, when the scrutiny increases even more, he’s out.

    It takes a tremendous amount of self-discipline to run for the Presidency. Again, Obama and Romney were pretty boring guys. All of this talk is a waste though. I wouldn’t be surprised if he drops out before the Iowa caucus.

    Vince

    August 6, 2015 at 2:52 am

  25. On Drudge – “Zuckerberg group predicts ‘influx of Latino and Asian American voters’ could doom Republicans…”

    Of course, and that has been the Democrat’s “South of the Border Strategy” since 1965!! At least.

    With their 1965 Immigration Reform Act among other things.

    Democrat Strategy = RACE! The strategy is to marginalize White America, esp the South and “rural” areas and create a majority non White, government centralized, permanent, Democrat one party Latin America style system.

    And they are well on their well to achieving their goals.

    Granted, Republicans are feeding it due to their own related strategy of giving big business all the low wage, indebted, mindless consumer trolls they can possibly import!

    Same results, different strategy.

    Rifleman

    August 6, 2015 at 4:13 am

  26. Anything interesting in the confirmation that the scraps found recently were part of the missing plane?

    massivefocusedinaction

    August 6, 2015 at 10:30 am

  27. Has anyone here mentioned that Trump has never held elected office anywhere – a local office or a national office? I’m a poli sci major and to my knowledge we’ve never elected a president (at least not in the past 100 years) who has never held elected office before. And our presidents usually come from the Senate and Governorships – not even from members of Congress. This was one big factor working against Giuliani. No one has ever gone from being a mayor to being president of the U.S.

    Also, while Trump has been a successful businessman, this is not a reason to believe that he’d necessarily be able to have the same level of achievement as president. Milton Friedman said years ago that a good society is run from the bottom up and a good business from the top down. Many people seem to think that all you need to be a successful candidate and a successful president is determination and smarts. But you also need to persuade people to vote for you and presidents need to use persuasion and leverage. The president is not a CEO.

    Instead of analyzing Trump, we should be analyzing the voters. Why are they so willing to say they’ll vote for someone just because he’s getting a lot of media attention, when past experience shows they won’t?

    Maryk

    August 6, 2015 at 10:42 am

    • “Trump has never held elected office anywhere.”

      Neither did Eisenhower.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      August 6, 2015 at 11:20 am

      • Why don’t the campaign advisers understand that it is a *good* thing, in the eyes of most, that Trump isn’t a professional politician.

        CamelCaseRob

        August 6, 2015 at 11:24 am

      • In addition to Eisenhower, Zachary Taylor and Ulysses S Grant were military men who had never been elected to anything before they became President.

        William Howard Taft and Herbert Hoover had never held elected office but had served in high level government positions (Taft as Secretary of War, Hoover as Secretary of Commerce).

        Indiana Jack

        August 6, 2015 at 12:25 pm

    • Neither did Herbert Hoover.

      Mark Caplan

      August 6, 2015 at 12:21 pm

  28. I do think Trump has a better shot than your typical outsider candidate. Illegal immigration really is a winning issue with voters and it doesn’t seem like Trump will let himself get shamed by the elites into doing something stupid. That said, I still think the odds are against him. The cathedral/megaphone people/liberal elites/whatever you want to call them really have a lot of power.

    sabril

    August 6, 2015 at 11:34 am

  29. Trump and Giuliani’s main problem is that they are both educated, Northeastern Republicans in a party that is now dominated by toothless, Southern evangelical retards.

    Beyond that, i am afraid that Republican voters will ultimately have too many trust issues with Trump. He has changed his policy positions, and even his party affiliation, continuously over his life. He is not principled. Trump will do or say anything to make a deal. And he will do the same to become President.

    B.T.D.T.

    August 6, 2015 at 2:27 pm

  30. Lion,
    Are you going to live blog during the debate tonight? You should do it!

    JerseyGuy

    August 6, 2015 at 4:45 pm

  31. The reason Guiliana crashed and burned is because he wasn’t really a conservative which almost 80% of the voters who vote Republican are. Coming out as pro-choice was just obvious proof that he was another liberal Republican that didn’t represent the voting base of the party. The GOP is the Stupid Party because they don’t represent their voters. They could have the White House already if they nominated a real conservative instead of Mitt the twit who played it middle of the road nowhere. Moderation is one thing but agreeing with the opposition more than your supporters is so stupid its actually hard to believe. You may not like the Democrats but they at least represent what their voters want. What the Fuck is the point of voting for someone who agrees with the opposite party more than you?
    Trump may not be conservative, but he’s a lifeline to the Stupid Party to at least nominate someone that voters on the Right find appealing. Therefore, I imagine they will do anything to stop him and nominate another LOSER. Hillary is crashing and burning too. I thought when she disappeared that she went to Dr. Frankenstein’s Lab to take ten or some years off of her, but she came back looking worse. There are serious rumors she has serious health issues. That’s bad news for the D-Party because their bench is weaker than the Toledo Mudhens right now. They’re even talking about running Retard Joe Biden.
    Man, Democracy is DEAD. Let’s just bury it now.

    Joshua Sinistar

    August 6, 2015 at 7:54 pm


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