Evidence of the end of Moore’s Law
According to Moore’s Law, which says that computing power doubles every two years, we should have seen a 300% increase in the benchmark scores. The explains why I haven’t felt the need to buy a new computer recently. A computer from 1995 would have blown away a similarly-priced computer from 1991.
According to a chart in The Economist, the cost per transistor in an IC chip has stalled since 2012.
Prior to 2003, we had easy improvements in computer power through rapid increase in clock speeds, but clock speeds have been stalled since 2003 (because higher clock speeds make the silicon too hot).
This is not to say that all progress has ended, but it has slowed significantly, and progress is more in the form of better battery life, better LCD displays, etc, rather than in raw computing power.
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This has a significant impact on the coming of the singularity. If computers in ten years will only be about twice as powerful as computers today, then it’s hard to imagine that computers will start to think like humans. We are lucky that we may be able to get to self-driving cars, but the cars will only be able to self-drive because they have GPS and sensors all over the car. They could never drive the way a human does, with just two eyes.