Lion of the Blogosphere

New CNN telephone poll, Trump in the lead

First major post-debate telephone poll, like online polls, shows that Trump’s lead increased after the debate (to 24%) and Jeb Bush’s support decreased (to 13%).

Perhaps even more significant, when asked which candidate can best handle the economy, illegal immigration, and ISIS [the Islamic State], Trump’s lead increases to 45%, 44%, and 32%. This indicates that people think that Trump is actually a better candidate that the 24% number but they are unwilling to support him because they think he has a worse chance of winning the general election. Only 38% of voters think that Republicans have a better chance with Trump, and 58% think they have a better chance with someone else.

So I think this indicates that Trump’s support will increase as people become more comfortable with the idea of President Trump and stop thinking that Trump, for some reason, has a worse chance in the general election than Jeb Bush. James Carville famously said “it’s the economy stupid,” and with 45% of Republicans thinking that Trump can handle the economy better than any other candidate, that’s a strong indication that Trump can actually win.

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Also remember that some of the opposition to Trump comes from hardcore anti-abortion Republicans, and they are not going to vote for Jeb Bush (who also thinks that women who are raped should be able to have an abortion) but will split between more hardcore conservatives like Cruz, Huckabee, Walker, and Santorum, and their votes will not be a factor in deciding the nomination.

Also, 80% of Americans think that a woman who was raped should be able to obtain an abortion, and a candidate who is on the record for saying otherwise would be eviscerated by the mainstream media on that issue and lose to the Democrat. This means that Walker is out as a realistic candidate even if you like his other positions.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

August 18, 2015 at 9:14 am

Posted in Politics

44 Responses

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  1. Good analysis. I’m galvanizing all my white fellow tradesmen for Trump. He is gonna win for sure, or at least that’s what I think. And don’t pay attention to polls, people want Trump.

    Yakov

    August 18, 2015 at 9:26 am

  2. No one will want to be his running mate. Everyone “respectable” will turn him down and he will end up with someone like Stockdale or Foster who would clearly be unsuitable as POTUS.

    Fiddlesticks

    August 18, 2015 at 10:06 am

    • There are lots of respectable politicians who won’t turn down an opportunity to be Vice President.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      August 18, 2015 at 10:16 am

      • Yes, an exceedingly lightweight who comes to mind, would be Rick Santaforum. He could never garner the attention, that his Republican cohorts would get, as presidential potential.

        JS

        August 18, 2015 at 12:59 pm

    • You’re saying Trump’s gonna resurrect Vince Foster? Now that would blow Hillary’s mind.

      money in the flow

      August 18, 2015 at 3:31 pm

    • Some immigration zealot will surely agree; somebody with a little higher profile than J. B. Stockdale or Ezola Foster. Whatever happened to Tom Tancredo or Duncan Hunter from back in 2008? Or the latter’s kid, Duncan D. Hunter. Maybe Pat Buchanan would agree to jump back into the fray (super old, though). An interesting pivot would be U.S. Sen. Joe Donnelly, a Democrat from Indiana who has strongly opposed amnesty. I don’t know anything about him beyond that, though.

      Greg Pandatshang

      August 18, 2015 at 6:41 pm

    • Who is Foster? Foster Brooks?

      ScarletNumber

      August 18, 2015 at 8:25 pm

      • Ezola Foster. A nice lady of no particular political experience who was Pat Buchanan’s VP running mate when Buchanan made his 3rd party run for president in 2000.

        Greg Pandatshang

        August 19, 2015 at 4:40 pm

  3. It’s going to be very close.

    If the GOP can organize around 1 anti-trump candidate, they have a good chance of forcing him out.
    If they can’t (also highly likely as GOP is the stupid party) they will fail and we WILL have a president Trump.

    I’d say it’s 50-50.

    jjbees

    August 18, 2015 at 10:15 am

    • And why won’t Hillary Clinton wipe the floor with Trump?

      Lloyd Llewellyn

      August 18, 2015 at 1:41 pm

      • The only floors she’ll be mopping are at Club Fed.

        Hillary for Prison 2016!

        destructure

        August 18, 2015 at 8:51 pm

  4. If Trump doesn’t get the GOP nomination, and decides not to run a LOT of people are going to vote Sanders. I know I will. Even Hillary Clinton is not as corrupt as the GOP because she at least pretends to represent her constituents.

    jjbees

    August 18, 2015 at 10:20 am

    • I would take Sanders over Jeb Bush, perhaps.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      August 18, 2015 at 10:27 am

      • Something I just learned: 2/3rds of Jeb’s kids have been arrested – https://twitter.com/dpinsen/status/633577618315587584

        Dave Pinsen

        August 18, 2015 at 11:26 am

      • Donald Trump has the better-behaved children, which I think speaks very well about him.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        August 18, 2015 at 11:39 am

      • Yes, and Trump’s children attended prestigious institutions, compared to the prolier schools of the Bush heirs.

        JS

        August 18, 2015 at 1:04 pm

      • What I can’t fathom is why Jeb’s kids all went to such mediocre schools, unless it was a calculated move intended to launch them into political careers on the basis of a sort of bizarre “one of us” strategy. I don’t know anyone from such a wealthy and powerful family who’s sent their children to public universities, let alone the sorts of public universities that they went to. It makes zero sense.

        Viscount Douchenozzlé

        August 18, 2015 at 2:46 pm

      • A lot of Republicans hail from schools, that most readers on this blog, would denigrate as low status or prole.

        JS

        August 18, 2015 at 9:00 pm

      • @JS

        George P went to Rice and Texas Law, which I don’t think are prole.

        ScarletNumber

        August 19, 2015 at 6:22 am

      • ” I don’t know anyone from such a wealthy and powerful family who’s sent their children to public universities, let alone the sorts of public universities that they went to. It makes zero sense.”

        I don’t think Jeb had a lot of choice. His kids were probably too dumb to excel at better institutions. That’s a good question for some reporter to ask though.

        Mike Street Station

        August 19, 2015 at 9:15 am

      • But there are also private colleges that target rich kids who aren’t smart enough for better schools.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        August 19, 2015 at 9:37 am

      • “But there are also private colleges that target rich kids who aren’t smart enough for better schools.”

        Right. In Florida I can think of quite a few, actually.

        Viscount Douchenozzlé

        August 19, 2015 at 7:27 pm

    • Trump > Walker > Webb > Sanders > Rubio (learned his lesson from Gang of 8 fiasco) >> Cruz (surprisingly clueless on legal immigration) >>>>>>>> Everyone not named ¡Jeb! > Clinton > ¡Jeb!

      DSGNTD_PLYR

      August 18, 2015 at 1:34 pm

  5. This is a crucial time for Donald Trump. He has used his knack for publicity magically to get to where he is…now he is going to have to act presidential. By that i mean no more putting the foot in the mouth. If he can start digging into the issues and refrain from needless outbursts i think he has a real shot at pulling this off.

    If i were his campaign manager i would suggest that he buy a few hours of air time on prime television where he can sit at a desk, look the American people in the eye and make his case. Kind of like what Ross Perot did but make it look more serious and professional…like a broadcast from the Oval Office. He could do some fireside chats on the radio too. He has everyones attention..now he has to make them truly trust him.

    B.T.D.T.

    August 18, 2015 at 2:30 pm

  6. Trump’s VP will be Jeanine Pirro

    coot veal or cot deal

    August 18, 2015 at 3:48 pm

  7. And the Democrat establishment wants nothing to do with Bernie Sanders. He’s running for the Democrat nomination, but he’s an independent and might go 3rd party himself. What happens if you have Sanders run 3rd party, a tainted Hillary Clinton as the Democratic nominee, Jeb Bush, and Trump himself going 3rd party? None of them would be likely to reach 270 electoral votes, so then it gets thrown to the House of Representatives, doesn’t it? Ordinarily Bush would get the nod in a GOP controlled house, but if Trump had a plurality of both the popular vote and the electoral vote, what then? The GOP is already despised by a large number of its own voters, and putting Bush in office over a guy who had more votes might cause a peasant’s revolt.

    Sgt. Joe Friday

    August 18, 2015 at 3:53 pm

  8. Immigration is a winning issue in many ways. Although supporters of deportations are not in majority, Trump’s tough position on immigration will attract many Democrats and Independents – those who support Democrats for economic reasons but only pretend to be politically correct.

    On the other hand, those voters who are passionately in favor of illegal immigration vote Democratic anyway. Nothing to lose there.

    WRB

    August 18, 2015 at 4:53 pm

  9. …45% of Republicans thinking that Trump can handle the economy better than any other candidate,

    So 55% think one of the others could do a better job???

    Amazing!!

    Rifleman

    August 18, 2015 at 7:54 pm

    • I like Trump overall but his economic policy is pretty terrible outside of immigration. His idea of a one-time wealth tax to pay off the national debt is pretty dumb.

      chairman

      August 18, 2015 at 8:36 pm

      • Although if the question was specifically in regards to Republican candidates, okay. Non-immigration they all have equally dumb economic policy, so Trump’s immigration policy would make him clearly superior.

        chairman

        August 18, 2015 at 8:37 pm

  10. i’m sure an alpha like trump has mistresses on the side who are gonna come out in droves if he actually gets that far in the election, thats gonna blow his chances

    GM

    August 18, 2015 at 8:08 pm

    • Didn’t stop Bill Clinton. Of course, the media hates Trump and loves Bill Clinton, so maybe you are right.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      August 18, 2015 at 8:14 pm

      • Yes – and Bill Clinton somewhat more incredibly manages to still be a media darling despite *actually being a confirmed serial rapist* unlike many of those currently unfairly accused of rape in the press.

        Viscount Douchenozzlé

        August 18, 2015 at 9:55 pm

      • “Bill Clinton somewhat more incredibly manages”

        It’s easy to hit home runs when your pal is pitching.

        Glengarry

        August 20, 2015 at 12:44 pm

    • Hard to predict. He’s a celebrity as well, and celebrities are held to a different standard. In fact, they are sort of required to be promiscuous.

      WRB

      August 18, 2015 at 8:41 pm

    • i’m sure an alpha like trump has mistresses on the side who are gonna come out in droves

      Not likely. He’s 69 and has been with his current wife since he was in his mid 50s.

      He doesn’t need mistresses. He’s around Miss Universe contestants every year and other beautiful women. That’s enough.

      He’s not Bill Clinton married to a dog since Law school who could only get average women during his marriage.

      Trump’s problem is just that he’s not “presidential” in style and speech. He has a trail of wild comments, on the Stern show alone.

      I don’t think it will matter. America elected a black guy with a foreign name with an admitted history of drug use who was a member of a racist extremist church for 20 years.

      Trump just has to pick a sensible, serious VP.

      Leave Cruz and others in the Senate and go with the unemployed Romney.

      Rifleman

      August 18, 2015 at 10:23 pm

      • No, he should pick an outsider like himself, not a typical politician like Romney who avoids taking a stand on issues.

        Yakov

        August 18, 2015 at 11:31 pm

      • I think Romney wouldn’t be a bad pick, or really any of the currently running candidates who’ve not tried to pick a fight with Trump, unlike Graham, Perry, Bush, or Christie. As Trump would say, those guys are losers. He probably needs a conservative on the ticket since Trump seems to be a moderate in the truest sense of the word.

        Mike Street Station

        August 19, 2015 at 9:25 am

      • Romney is a GREAT pick. VP picks NEVER NEVER NEVER help you WIN an election, they can only help you LOSE an election. Mitt Romney is thoroughly vetted and is guaranteed not to lose the election.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        August 19, 2015 at 9:37 am

      • Mark Cuban would be a great VP pick for trump.

        uatu

        August 19, 2015 at 12:58 pm

      • Picking Romney, who was never clear where he stands on anything, would bring into doubt Trump’s own seriousness. If somethong happens to Trump will Romney follow the same policies? I don’t think so. Romney is a loset: he ran a lousy campaign, he lost, he is history. Now, you may be right that choosing Romney will not hurt Trump with the electorate, but this is no way to lead. A leader has to have his own people that are dedicated to his vision and policies. People like us on this blog.

        Yakov

        August 19, 2015 at 7:40 pm

  11. By every standard of the Paul Fussell book, Trump is intensely prole. Everything he builds or associates with is the sort of showy ostentatious nonsense that Fussell associates with high-prole tastes, so basically he’s what proles think being rich would be like.

    So how does he win? Enough high school dropouts or GED-holders to elect him? Because the middle-class and above will see him as a prancing buffoon who panders to the type of people who watch reality TV. The “Pauline Kael problem” (“I don’t know anyone who voted for Nixon”) would be really pronounced — in most so ail circles outside the building trades it would be suicide to admit supporting him, and you must be perceived as popular to win because most people are followers.

    cjwynes

    August 19, 2015 at 7:42 pm

  12. By every standard of the Paul Fussell book, Trump is intensely prole.

    He owns high end golf courses not bowling alleys.

    America isn’t going to elect some quiet, hidden TOOS guy President so get over it.

    So how does he win? Enough high school dropouts or GED-holders to elect him?

    You are delusional. The core of his support will be solid middle class White America and then a good percentage of others not in that demo.

    Rifleman

    August 20, 2015 at 1:19 am

    • “America isn’t going to elect some quiet, hidden TOOS guy President so get over it.”

      Romney behaved in a TOOS manner (even though he was too public to be out of sight) and the voters didn’t like it.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      August 20, 2015 at 12:18 pm


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