Donald Trump in the NY Times
An article in yesterday’s NY Times is that paper’s first that takes Trumps candidacy seriously:
A review of public polling, extensive interviews with a host of his supporters in two states and a new private survey that tracks voting records all point to the conclusion that Mr. Trump has built a broad, demographically and ideologically diverse coalition, constructed around personality, not substance, that bridges demographic and political divides. In doing so, he has effectively insulated himself from the consequences of startling statements that might instantly doom rival candidates.
The point of the article is that Trump leads among every category of voter that the authors of the article can identify, and the article pours could water on those who are waiting for Trump’s political incorrectness to finally catch up with him:
His most offensive utterances have, for many Republicans, confirmed his status as a unique outsider willing to challenge conventions, and satisfied a craving for plain-spoken directness.
Asked if Mr. Trump had crossed a line with his language, Carl Tomanelli, 68, a retired New York City police officer in Londonderry, N.H., seemed surprised by the question.
“People are starting to see, I believe, that all this political correctness is garbage,” he said. “I think he’s echoing what a lot of people feel and say.”
It is the Lion’s personal prediction that Trump can go all the way because of a factor that the Times article overlooks or ignores, which is that Trump’s natural opposition is divided into two mutually antagonistic camps. There’s the evangelical Christian anti-abortion camp which will want to vote for a hardcore anti-abortion warrior (currently Ben Carson is in the lead although Huckabee still has a good chance to pick up that vote), and a pro-business traditional-candidate camp which supports Jeb Bush. So if the anti-Trump vote splits between Jeb Bush and Carson/Huckabee/someone else, then Trump can win the nomination even if he only gets around 50% of the vote. Although, because everyone lover a winner even if the winner is Donald Trump, after Trump dominates in the initial primaries, his support will increase to a stronger majority.
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Meanwhile, the latest online Reuters/Ipsos poll shows that Trumps lead has increased to 32%, and Trump also leads when people are given a choice between just Trump, Bush and Carson, demonstrating my point that the anti-Trump vote is likely to split.