Lion of the Blogosphere

Donald Trump in the NY Times

An article in yesterday’s NY Times is that paper’s first that takes Trumps candidacy seriously:

A review of public polling, extensive interviews with a host of his supporters in two states and a new private survey that tracks voting records all point to the conclusion that Mr. Trump has built a broad, demographically and ideologically diverse coalition, constructed around personality, not substance, that bridges demographic and political divides. In doing so, he has effectively insulated himself from the consequences of startling statements that might instantly doom rival candidates.

The point of the article is that Trump leads among every category of voter that the authors of the article can identify, and the article pours could water on those who are waiting for Trump’s political incorrectness to finally catch up with him:

His most offensive utterances have, for many Republicans, confirmed his status as a unique outsider willing to challenge conventions, and satisfied a craving for plain-spoken directness.

Asked if Mr. Trump had crossed a line with his language, Carl Tomanelli, 68, a retired New York City police officer in Londonderry, N.H., seemed surprised by the question.

“People are starting to see, I believe, that all this political correctness is garbage,” he said. “I think he’s echoing what a lot of people feel and say.”

It is the Lion’s personal prediction that Trump can go all the way because of a factor that the Times article overlooks or ignores, which is that Trump’s natural opposition is divided into two mutually antagonistic camps. There’s the evangelical Christian anti-abortion camp which will want to vote for a hardcore anti-abortion warrior (currently Ben Carson is in the lead although Huckabee still has a good chance to pick up that vote), and a pro-business traditional-candidate camp which supports Jeb Bush. So if the anti-Trump vote splits between Jeb Bush and Carson/Huckabee/someone else, then Trump can win the nomination even if he only gets around 50% of the vote. Although, because everyone lover a winner even if the winner is Donald Trump, after Trump dominates in the initial primaries, his support will increase to a stronger majority.

* * *

Meanwhile, the latest online Reuters/Ipsos poll shows that Trumps lead has increased to 32%, and Trump also leads when people are given a choice between just Trump, Bush and Carson, demonstrating my point that the anti-Trump vote is likely to split.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

August 23, 2015 at 12:52 pm

Posted in Politics

45 Responses

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  1. Trump will look even better in the general election if Biden can get the intelligence community to revoke Hillary’s security clearance. Then it’s Biden/Warren 2016.


    August 23, 2015 at 2:03 pm

  2. I still think he’ll say something dumb and wind up driving away his base. Besides, if he doesn’t get the Republican nomination, he’ll have to run as a 3rd party, which stands a good chance of not working.

    But, who knows?


    August 23, 2015 at 2:04 pm

    • It depends on how you define “dumb”, or at least who holds that opinion. Trump’s biggest strength, and what makes him popular, is his refusal to apologize for anything he says, regardless of how offensive the press may think it is. The press thinks a lot of opinions the public holds are offensive; somebody who expresses those opinions then gives the finger to the press and activist groups who take offense is going to be popular. If his remarks about McCain didn’t take him down, I don’t see anything within reason that will.


      August 23, 2015 at 7:08 pm

    • “…he’ll have to run as a 3rd party, which stands a good chance of not working.”

      If by working you mean getting elected, you may be right.

      Another definition of working would be – blowing up the status quo – at which I can see him succeeding most spectacularly.


      August 23, 2015 at 8:46 pm

  3. He’s really making these guys look bad. I saw Bush *refuting* Trump’s immigration proposals. We can’t build a wall, blah blah blah. He looked so simpering. So whiny. Daddy, why’s this mean man interrupting my inauguration?

    Trump is going to drive a wedge between the Reagan Democrats and the Chamber of Commerce crowd. And it’s going to be a lot of fun to watch.


    August 23, 2015 at 2:07 pm

  4. ‘Mr. Trump has built a broad, demographically and ideologically diverse coalition, constructed around personality, not substance,’

    Times has made some progress in taking Trump seriously, but it still avoids dealing with real issues that galvanize Trump supporters.

    If Trump was for amnesty who would be charmed by his personality? Times is a despicable rag.


    August 23, 2015 at 2:11 pm

  5. The hideous NYT Editorial Board weepingly refers to cruelty, racism, scapegoating, ‘morality’ (chuckle, that’s not your card to play), not to mention the reduction of millions of Mr Slim’s customers to poverty. Whatever histrionics it takes to stop that terrible Mr Trump:

    Something’s starting to sting, it seems.


    August 23, 2015 at 2:16 pm

  6. Scott Walker could potential unite both Christian conservatives and establishment types, as could Marco Rubio.


    August 23, 2015 at 2:25 pm

    • I don’t want to be united with Republican establishment types. they are part of the problem.

      Daniel H

      August 24, 2015 at 2:17 am

    • As far as the Republican base has come in the past few months on immigration, I don’t see how Marco Rubio can win conservatives. Walker could do it however.

      Mike Street Station

      August 24, 2015 at 9:16 am

  7. It shows how intellectually shallow the elite are when they label Trump non-substantive. Only a liar or a moron could look at the Trump/Sessions outline on immigration and say that is without substance.


    August 23, 2015 at 3:11 pm

  8. scott adams is also writing a lot about trump.


    August 23, 2015 at 4:19 pm

  9. I’m hoping for a poll of all voters, rather than the current primary versions, which just poll either registered Republicans or Democrats, on just their primary picks. I would like to know how Trump does with Independents and Democrats, if given a Trump option in a poll.

    Mike Street Station

    August 23, 2015 at 4:20 pm

  10. Yes I don’t think Reagan was as popular with the GOP establishment as they try to pretend now. But they rallied around him more or less when they could no longer fight him. Then his people started taking over the establishment.

    Mrs Stitch

    August 23, 2015 at 5:45 pm

  11. OT: lion, i read this and thought of you:


    The information age has made Thiel rich, but it has also been a disappointment to him. It hasn’t created enough jobs, and it hasn’t produced revolutionary improvements in manufacturing and productivity. The creation of virtual worlds turns out to be no substitute for advances in the physical world. “The Internet—I think it’s a net plus, but not a big one,” he said. “Apple is an innovative company, but I think it’s mostly a design innovator.” Twitter has a lot of users, but it doesn’t employ that many Americans: “Five hundred people will have job security for the next decade, but how much value does it create for the entire economy? It may not be enough to dramatically improve living standards in the U.S. over the next decade or two decades.” Facebook was, he said, “on balance positive,” because of the social disruptions it had created—it was radical enough to have been “outlawed in China.” That’s the most he will say for the celebrated era of social media.


    August 23, 2015 at 6:01 pm

    • further down in the article:


      Thiel believes that education is the next bubble in the U.S. economy. He has compared university administrators to subprime-mortgage brokers, and called debt-saddled graduates the last indentured workers in the developed world, unable to free themselves even through bankruptcy.


      August 23, 2015 at 6:48 pm

      • It would be incredibly easy to avert any crisis stemming from mass unpayable student loans. The majority are from the government — the government could simply issue a mass forgiveness of all student debt owed to them. There would be *NO* negative effects of the government doing this. But politically and ideologically people are too trapped in an idea of debt and government financing that is totally at odds with reality. But I suspect in the coming decades it will be unavoidable.


        August 23, 2015 at 11:09 pm

      • Agreed, it would be a good move. (I think Obama is snuffling around the topic, by the way.)

        Someone inspired by Henry VIII could furthermore take the opportunity to lighten the monasteries, er universities, of their vast treasures, and limit their greed for tuition while they’re at it. Close down the worst offenders and send the staff out as mendicants on the roads for their penance.


        August 24, 2015 at 11:29 am

      • I wish people would stop saying this.

        Do you guys not understand that it is impossible to get a job without a college degree.


        August 26, 2015 at 12:20 am

    • Trump can win more young voters if he backs federal and private student loan dischargeability. He can also crush academia by adopting Mike Lee’s college reform plan.

      The Undiscovered Jew

      August 23, 2015 at 9:46 pm

  12. The Bush candidacy is going to implode with all major GOP constituencies outside that of traditional GOP donors. If that wing of the party is going to make a play for the presidency, which presumably they do, they need to ditch him ASAP and get behind Rubio, Walker, or Kasich. ¡Jeb! is unelectable.

    Viscount Douchenozzlé

    August 23, 2015 at 6:09 pm

  13. There’s the evangelical Christian anti-abortion camp which will want to vote for a hardcore anti-abortion warrior (currently Ben Carson is in the lead although Huckabee still has a good chance to pick up that vote),

    The New York Times you link to says that Trump leads among evangelical Christians:

    In poll after poll of Republicans, Mr. Trump leads among women, despite having used terms like “fat pigs” and “disgusting animals” to denigrate some of them. He leads among evangelical Christians, despite saying he had never had a reason to ask God for forgiveness.


    August 23, 2015 at 7:05 pm

  14. Ed Rollins thinks Trump has better than even odds to win the Presidecy.

    bob sykes

    August 23, 2015 at 9:26 pm

  15. Trump could be benefiting from cheap immigrant labor both legal and illegal but he puts his country first because he is a true patriot. I like cheap hard working Mexican midgets, but I’m willing to face uncertain future and possibly decreased profits do to what’s right for the country. Trump, only Trump!


    August 23, 2015 at 9:33 pm

    • Trump would be good, if he could slash government jobs, which means a dire situation for blacks.

      Did you hear about the shooting in lower Manhattan, involving a White guy, who acted as a whistle blower, losing his job as a result, complaining that our government creates too many fake jobs for loafers? Of course, we all know who the loafers are, with a specific demographic that comes to mind, who are overrepresented in government work.


      August 24, 2015 at 12:50 pm

  16. There’s the evangelical Christian anti-abortion camp which will want to vote for a hardcore anti-abortion warrior (currently Ben Carson is in the lead although Huckabee still has a good chance to pick up that vote), and a pro-business traditional-candidate camp which supports Jeb Bush.

    And Trump’s general election chances are looking up. He’s closed to within six points of Hillary nationally. That’s before he’s had the opportunity to run negative ads against her during a general election which, more likely than not, will coincide with a worldwide economic recession.

    The Undiscovered Jew

    August 23, 2015 at 9:41 pm

  17. A hillarious line from WeBeSisters:
    “We don’t say illegal immigrants can’t come here, we say they should come here legally!!! Now ppl in prison will have jobs to come home to…

    Compare to Trump today: ‘We’ll deport the illegals and if they are good people they can come back legally’.

    A coincidence?


    August 23, 2015 at 10:08 pm

  18. Historian Clyde Wilson describing George Wallace’s populist appeal in 1968:

    “This is populism. It is a threat to the subsidies, tariffs, and contracts that Big Business defines as “free enterprise” (the only kind of free enterprise the Republican Party has ever defended). It claims that farmers and laborers want a fair shake, a level field, so it is “socialism” (the only kind of socialism the Republican Party has ever opposed). Populism is also a threat to the most hallowed of all American values; respectability. America, which is nothing if not a land of “pseudo-intellectuals,” is governed by fashion. No issue in America is ever considered on its truth or falsehood, only whether the “right people” find it acceptable or unacceptable.”


    August 23, 2015 at 10:20 pm

  19. There’s vile, and there’s politically incorrect; many people who are the former claim to be the latter…


    August 23, 2015 at 10:38 pm

  20. “Always take the offensive – – – the defensive ain’t worth a damn.” So said Louisiana’s self designated “Kingfish,” Huey P. Long.

    “Huey Long was exceptionally well tailored and oftentimes wore clothes to be eye-catching or horrifying. The Kingfish wore pink, lavender or lilac shirts adorned with equally colorful ties. Long traveled in luxury automobiles”

    “Part of Huey Long’s appeal and popularity was the fact he would speak the unspeakable.”

    “Long was quick on his feet and was almost unparalleled as a master of ridicule and invective.”

    “Huey Long was a nominal Democrat, but he never hesitated to criticize either the Republican or Democratic Party.”

    “Huey Long was no ideologue; Long was neither a conservative nor a liberal. Long cast himself as the champion of the common man and woman and his populist message resonated with not only with Louisianans, but also millions of Americans.”


    August 23, 2015 at 11:54 pm

  21. Sorry, wrong link, copy & paste error. Don’t click it, it’s porn. Here’s that Rupert Murdoch tweet:

    With Trump becoming very serious candidate, it's time for next billionaire candidate, Mike Bloomberg to step into ring. Greatest mayor.— Rupert Murdoch (@rupertmurdoch) August 24, 2015


    Dave Pinsen

    August 24, 2015 at 5:56 am

    • Now there’s one big alpha dog for us wimmens…no thanks…

      Mrs Stitch

      August 24, 2015 at 2:48 pm

  22. I expect Trump to underperform his polling. He is a national alpha who commands support from local alphas.

    The people who dutifully sign their voter registration cards and schelp to primaries and caucuses in late winter are not talky talky alphas but civic-minded, practical betas. And in the primaries, you reach those voters by performing a lot of betaish, wonkish organizing grunt work.

    Alphas are too good to be seen performing low-status grunt work.


    August 24, 2015 at 10:19 am

  23. Trump taking on Hedge Fund Managers and the carried interest loophole:

    “The hedge fund guys didn’t build this country. These are guys that shift paper around and they get lucky,”–sector.html

    Perez HBD

    August 24, 2015 at 1:24 pm

  24. I’m a little big older than the blogger. Every word that has appeared in print about Trump could have been written about Perot in 1992. Perot was more of a straight arrow than Trump. Though Perot was identified with the Red tribe (we didn’t think in quite those ways then), he tried to run right away as an independent instead of first running in the Republican primaries. That’s about it. The appeal and supporters are the same. I expect Trump to withdraw and complain about some plan to ruin one of his daughter’s wedding.

    The campaign also reminds me a little of Dean’s effort in 2003-4.

    I think the establishment knows how to handle these guys.


    August 24, 2015 at 1:33 pm

    • Exactly.

      Viscount Douchenozzlé

      August 25, 2015 at 2:58 pm

      • Perot was a plant created by Bill Clinton to split the Republican vote. In exchange, Perot’s EDS would handle BillaryCARE’s healthcare program data needs.

        The problem with Perot is that the whole NAFTA thing was just getting started and circumstances were not bad at the time. Plus, Perot’s overly wonkish graphical presentations did not fly well with most voters.


        August 26, 2015 at 12:15 am

  25. Lion, can you do another post about iRobot? I just bought a few hundred shares to open a new position. I agree with your reasoning on the company and have just been waiting for a good entry point. I think one of the tech giants will buy it. Google’s reorg makes it likely. Maybe Tesla too (but they don’t have much cash), since the biggest issue with mobile robots is battery price, weight, quality. I could see Tesla’s advantage there meshing well with iRobot’s.

    The valuations in this space are crazy, no-rev companies with multi-billion valuations, while iRobot is actually consistently profitable and worth less than a bil. I imagine they have some great patents too.


    August 24, 2015 at 2:49 pm

    • They are priced like a vacuum company instead of a robotics company.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      August 24, 2015 at 3:25 pm

      • Nest adds a little wireless chip and processor to a thermostat and smoke detector and becomes a multi billion dollar company Google bought.


        August 24, 2015 at 11:13 pm

      • NEST is a wireless connection set in your house sending information to Google.

        NEVER EVER use Nest products. It’s a product that tracks your movements in and around your home.


        August 26, 2015 at 12:12 am

  26. When Perot ran things were nowhere near as bad. NAFTA was still being negotiated and the Economy was still employing a lot of Americans. Not anymore. If the system crushes Trump then they better get a nice big bunker and hope to catch the last helicopter out of Saigon. Because this bitch is coming down. Everybody says the Stock Market is correcting, but its not. This Economy is now dead.

    Joshua Sinistar

    August 25, 2015 at 8:52 pm

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