Lion of the Blogosphere

Iowa poll

Just released poll of likely Iowa caucus goers shows that Trump is in the lead at 23% and Ben Carson has a very strong second place at 18%.

It looks like the hardcore evangelical Christian vote is coalescing around Carson, which is good news for Trump because if the anti-Trump vote splits between Carson and Bush, Trump can win the nomination. (Although based on this poll, hardly anyone in Iowa is going to vote for Bush)

Additional good news for Trump is that his favorability rating has jumped to 61% positive, putting him ahead of Jeb Bush.

If Trump can win Iowa and New Hampshire it’s hard to see how he could possibly lose the nomination.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

August 29, 2015 at 11:45 PM

Posted in Politics

65 Responses

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  1. Good news. Maybe America needs a new patriotic party? When Trump wins the election he should establish it so that his policies will have a continuation after his two terms in office.


    August 30, 2015 at 12:37 AM

    • If Trump wins, it would be a realigning election that would change the Republican Party in the future.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      August 30, 2015 at 10:06 AM

      • If Trump wins, the leadership of both parties will plot and scheme to make Trump a lame duck starting January 21, 2017. If they’re unable to do that, then I think we’ll see the use of impeachment as a tool for cutting Trump’s gonads off. Yes, I know it’s supposed to be used only in cases of “high crimes and misdemeanors,” but Democrats will argue that Clinton was impeached “for lying about sex,” so that will make, for example, enforcing immigration law impeachable.

        Sgt. Joe Friday

        August 30, 2015 at 4:55 PM

      • “If Trump wins, the leadership of both parties will plot and scheme to make Trump a lame duck starting January 21, 2017. If they’re unable to do that, then I think we’ll see the use of impeachment”

        That’s exactly what happened to Walker in WI. The government unions initiated the recall process as soon as he enacted his agenda.

        As soon as anyone messes with privileged classes, those classes get nasty.

        typing my way to infamy

        August 30, 2015 at 9:33 PM

    • Patriotism via politics, is now both a prole and stupid thing in Meriprolestan. If Trumps become president, the saying “here comes the new boss, same as the old boss” will always be true, unless we get an Italian American loser type like a Chris Christie, who wants to play hardball, by bringing America back to its stern parochial roots. And not many politicians want to come out as an irrational bigot, not even the Republicans. It’s quite obvious, that parochial minded people don’t become influential elites, at least in our day with globalization, where our country, is so convoluted with 3rd world immigrants and tied with foreign money. The only resolution to a more homogeneous country, with a more uniform ideology, is a restive White majority, who will take matters in their own hands and screw the politicians.


      August 30, 2015 at 9:11 PM

  2. Ben Carson is the cuckservative candidate of choice after Bush fizzled out. Can someone explain to me why Ben Carson is taken seriously as a candidate? He might be fine in a cabinet level position…but President? Carson only seems to be given attention because he is black. He also is an Obama clone when it come to race, obviously because he is black. Whitey is the great racist blah blah blah.
    The Republican Party is finished and good riddance.


    August 30, 2015 at 1:15 AM

    • Isn’t a well-polling black Republican candidate a fixture at this stage of the election cycle? Powell, Keyes, Caine…


      August 30, 2015 at 11:59 AM

      • What do you call a black man in a coat & tie at a GOP gathering?

        “Mr. Chairman.”

        Sgt. Joe Friday

        August 30, 2015 at 8:35 PM

    • Ben Carson called Obama a psychopath and said he may be guilty of treason. He attacked Obama to his face at the National Prayer Breakfast, and the White House (Obama) demanded an apology from Carson, which Carson did not give. He keynoted the National Organization for Marriage march in 2014, long after lots of other Republicans bowed out of that fight. He was placed on the SPLC extremist watch list for his pro-family views and was only removed because of an outcry. He says political correctness is destroying the country and makes it a point to attack it whenever he can. And he doesn’t spend his time aiming his gun at the right like conservatives.


      August 30, 2015 at 2:28 PM

      • meant to end: like some “conservatives.”


        August 30, 2015 at 2:29 PM

      • Calling down Obama at his own Prayer Breakfast was pretty ballsey. I think that’s what kick started his political ambitions.

        Mike Street Station

        August 31, 2015 at 11:12 AM

    • I think the Christian Right likes him.

      There is a commenter on Sailer’s site who argues that fanatical universalism is just a new manifestation of secularized Christianity. That assessment sounds correct to me. Christianity’s great weakness in this age is 1) it seeks converts (cannot sustain the advantages of close knit coordinated self-seeking that has proved beneficial to more insular sects); and 2) it doesn’t make dominion a necessary element of its doctrine/strategy. As a result, its primary momentum comes from its universalist claims which, as Gibbon suggested, can be self defeating and opens it up to manipulation by smaller more coordinated groups/sects. It also means that it is forever seeking someone to ‘save.’


      August 30, 2015 at 8:46 PM

  3. If Trump can win Iowa and New Hampshire it’s hard to see how he could possibly lose the nomination.

    Those are in February it’s too early to talk about anything coalescing.

    Lloyd Llewellyn

    August 30, 2015 at 1:18 AM

    • yes, it is waaay too soon..

      Mrs Stitch

      August 30, 2015 at 5:24 PM

      • And they changed the primary schedule since 2012

        Dr. G

        August 30, 2015 at 11:51 PM

    • Too soon? Maybe. FWIW GW Bush had a similar lead in the primary polls at this point in Sept. ’99. Of course he was the establishment candidate and the base knew he had a headwind, but still . . . this doesn’t feel like an election where voters are feeling fickle about selecting among non-stellar candidates (2012). It feels more like an election where a broad faction have found their man . . . In other words, I don’t think Trump’s support is analogous to Herman Caine and the other dwarfs (Romney included). More analogous to GW Bush.


      August 31, 2015 at 1:05 PM

  4. Please no more black jesus candidates.

    And how can ANYONE trust a person who puts over a decade into becoming a physician, only to quit to become a greasy politician? NO WAY!!!


    August 30, 2015 at 1:51 AM

    • Carson has practiced neurosurgery for more than 30 years and is now in his early 60’s. Many older surgeons tire out by that age or develop tremors that limit their ability to operate safely. When I was in the academic medical center environment, a lot more internists than surgeons continued to work after they turned 65.


      August 30, 2015 at 12:57 PM

  5. This damn Carson thing is just another example of black privilege. He’s the worst speaker of any of them.


    August 30, 2015 at 1:56 AM

  6. Hillary is saying she has so many commitments from her party’s establishment hacks (also known as superdelegates) that she has the nomination virtually in the bag. Primary election results won’t matter.

    On the Republican side, Liz Olson of writes: “Out of 2,470 total delegates at the Republican National Convention in 2016, 437 are unpledged delegates, who play the same role as superdelegates.” There hasn’t been comparable news whether Republican establishment hacks have rallied to one candidate, but one can assume it won’t be Donald Trump and is likely to be ¡Jeb!

    Mark Caplan

    August 30, 2015 at 6:27 AM

  7. There is still time for things to change, but Trump looks good.

    The Establishment has gone in big behind Bush, and he hasn’t started to spend his money. We’ll see how much difference it makes in the flurry before the elections.


    August 30, 2015 at 8:30 AM

  8. So let’s say he wins the Repub nomination, do you think he has the ability to win over the liberatarian & undecided voters to defeat the Dem nominee?

    On another note, what is your take on the Democratic party nomination? Sanders has risen from a complete longshot to within single digits of Hillary in Iowa. Pretty impressive considering that Hillary has been considered the automatic nominee by many for quite some time.


    August 30, 2015 at 9:18 AM

    • Trump’s biggest strength will be his appeal to “undecided” voters and “Reagan Democrats.”

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      August 30, 2015 at 10:12 AM

      • Also, Trump may increase turnout among voters who stay home because they think both parties are worthless.


        August 30, 2015 at 10:36 AM

    • Trump vs. Sanders would be the best election ever.


      August 30, 2015 at 11:59 AM

      • Imagine if Trump offers Sanders the VP slot and they run together. Sounds crazy, but they really aren’t that far apart politically.

        Dave Pinsen

        August 30, 2015 at 5:16 PM

      • That’s a great idea.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        August 30, 2015 at 6:04 PM

      • Trump just says whatever he wants to get support because he knows the former CSA, aka the GOP base, are xenophobic retards. 2012 Trump says, “For people that have been here for years that have been hard-workers, have good jobs, they’re supporting their family — it’s very, very tough to just say, ‘By the way, 22 years, you have to leave. Get out,'” he said during an appearance on Fox News. “I’m one of the world’s very conservative people, but I have to tell you on a human basis, how do you throw somebody out that’s lived in this country for 20 years.”

        Sanders is the better choice. Maybe that explains his lack of coverage.


        August 30, 2015 at 6:22 PM

      • Why is Trump Sanders a good idea? I don’t like Sanders. He is a supporter of big government.


        August 30, 2015 at 7:06 PM

      • lion will soon ban you for hurting his feelings by making factual statements.

        1900 election:

        the party switch is initiated. all smith wins Mass and RI.


        swank you fergit that the GOP is a coalition of white trash and randian satanists.

        kim jong un

        August 30, 2015 at 7:31 PM

      • “he knows the former CSA, aka the GOP base, are xenophobic retards.”

        Who better to oppose universalist retards?

        “. . . I have to tell you on a human basis, how do you throw somebody out that’s lived in this country for 20 years.”

        No more difficult than telling young men drafted in 1943 or at any time thereafter that they had no choice but to serve and very likely die. Laws have consequences. Failing to enforce the law also has consequences.


        August 30, 2015 at 8:23 PM

      • Who better to oppose universalist retards?

        Democrats are shitty and have this annoying habit of pretending that they are something other than aborted Englishmen, but their opposition is a CIRCUS ACT. A billionaire with zero track record is talking about how he’s going to ‘take care’ of the elites and an entire party just laps it up: AND HE IS THE BEST GOP CANDIDATE = A JOKE.

        E pluribus unum fails not because it can’t work, but because massive propaganda somehow makes entire voting blocs forget their function: vote your own interest. The fellow in Kentucky thinks he is the next John Galt and votes as though he were already John Galt = RETARD.

        The anger is all legitimate but it is misdirected. “Don’t blame big business, blame the government, the one institution that can help you. Don’t blame big business, blame the lawyers for driving up prices. Don’t blame big business, blame the poor people we hire.” And so on…

        America is the luckiest country in the world wrt resources and geography. We should be much richer than we are.


        August 31, 2015 at 2:28 PM

    • Sanders only appeals to whites and thus he has no chance, even if he wins Iowa and NH. Many states are majority non-white when it comes to the Democratic primaries.


      August 30, 2015 at 12:09 PM

      • I guarantee he appeals to Latin voters far more than Trump.

        Viscount Douchenozzlé

        August 30, 2015 at 1:09 PM

      • Trump isn’t running in the Democratic primaries so I don’t know why you are bringing him into this. Sander’s is running against Clinton, not Trump.

        However you might be wrong about Sanders appealing more to latin american voters. Typical R’s get 30% of their vote, D’s get 70%. Trump is going to do better with them than normal (he appeals to their love of a Big Man) and Sanders would do worse than normal (he’s a wimp). The latin american vote might go 50/50 in a Trump/Sanders race, though it would probably lean slightly towards Sanders.

        The outcome that I foresee is Clinton winning that Latin Amercan vote with 60% to Trump’s 40%. Of course it doesn’t really matter, as latin americans don’t decide elections. Turnout among whites (and blacks, to a lesser extent) is what matters.


        August 30, 2015 at 6:17 PM

      • Sanders will lose to Hillary’s political machine. He’s grabbing the ‘not Hillary’ vote now. But he won’t hold it all for himself once more Democrats enter the race because he can’t differentiate himself from other Dems like Trump can differentiate himself in the GOP primary.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        August 30, 2015 at 8:15 PM

      • Typical R’s get 30% of their vote, D’s get 70%. Trump is going to do better with them than normal (he appeals to their love of a Big Man)

        Back home they certainly love their criollo military dictators. Usually.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        August 30, 2015 at 8:18 PM

  9. Jeb Bush’s plan was: his advisors (all from the George W administration) coud guarantee XXXX number of votes. More than half of the candidates on the ballot exist only to split the remaining votes.

    The key for Trump to win Iowa is looking at the % of the Rubios, Kasichs, Fiorinas and all of the other non serious candidates running interference for Jeb. He needs all of their voters.

    Carson is getting the voters who voted for Hickabee in previous elections.


    August 30, 2015 at 10:46 AM

  10. Old piece by Donald Trump on an NYC construction worker who saved someone’s life by holding them underneath a subway train.,28804,1595326_1615754_1615746,00.html

    Ava Lon

    August 30, 2015 at 11:22 AM

  11. On Friday, Bernie Sanders addressed the Democratic National Committee: “[M]illions of working people, young people and people of color gave up on politics as usual.”

    Funny how he makes a distinction between working people and people of color.

    Mark Caplan

    August 30, 2015 at 11:56 AM

  12. The first three contests are overrated. Romney won New Hampshire but he lost Iowa and South Carolina and still won the nomination anyway.


    August 30, 2015 at 12:05 PM

  13. Here’s a clip of Jeb Bush arguing against Trump:

    He sounds tired, frustrated and over-caffeinated.


    August 30, 2015 at 4:31 PM

    • So Jeb thinks enforcing immigration laws will be too expensive. No mention about the cost to local school districts of failing to enforce immigration laws (just ask Arizona).


      August 30, 2015 at 8:31 PM

      • A couple of weeks ago I saw an estimate at $12.5k for the cost of deporting one person. That’s less than the annual cost of sending one kid to public K-12 in the DC suburb where I live, and about average nation-wide (Google says $12,743/student).


        August 31, 2015 at 10:43 AM

      • I just looked up the numbers. The $12.5K figure is from a 2011 DHS-ICE estimate. The liberal Center for American Progress has a 2015 estimate at $10,070 for the 5 million that got Obama’s executive amnesty. I did see an estimate as high as $23K. Again, that’s cheaper than welfare + schools + prison.


        August 31, 2015 at 11:09 AM

  14. The real question is whether or not he can actually win the nomination in spite of the RNC’s quiet rule changes that were designed to hand the nomination to Jeb Bush. To even be considered for nomination, one must win eight states (changed from five). Additionally, all primaries after 15 March are winner-take-all, not a proportional allocation of delegates as in primaries prior to that date.


    August 30, 2015 at 5:16 PM

    • I don’t think Trump will win the nomination, and suspect that his candidacy is not serious and he will drop out before New Hampshire. But Inkraven made an interesting comment. I didn’t know the RNC changed the rules. It could really backfire on them.

      There are 14 non-Trump candidates in the race, mostly (Paul may be the only exception) establishment types. Trump is unlikely to get a majority of the primary votes overall. With proportional allocation of delegates, the establishment candidates could limp into the convention, and combine behind one non-Trump candidate. With the rules change, the anti-Trump establishment consensus candidate has to emerge much earlier.

      The Democrats were able to pull this off in 2004, uniting behind Kerry right before the Iowa caucus to stop Dean.


      August 30, 2015 at 9:01 PM

  15. Actually, Trump is winning a plurality of Evangelicals and just about every other Republican demographic. Trump is also performing well enough in general election matchups that I’m now comfortable switching my support from Walker to him.

    As for Ben Carson, his bump is probably a temporary result of the debate. I suspect Carson will fade and Cruz will pick up most of his social con supporters. But it won’t be enough for Cruz to stop Trump.

    The Undiscovered Jew

    August 30, 2015 at 7:57 PM

  16. In Canada, a far left party is currently in the ascendency for the next federal election, whose party leader spouts the sort of nonsense popular with English majors. If Canadian far lefty and American Trump both end up getting elected, future cross border summits will be interesting.


    August 30, 2015 at 8:07 PM

  17. This whole immigration thing makes no sense. Russia has millions of justTajik quest workers. They pay money for work visa and renew it or go back home at its expiration. Israel has hundreds of thousands of workers that all go back. Why do Mexicans or anyone else have to immigrate? They should come to work here when needed and go back home, like it’s done in normal countries. Why isn’t anybody talking about this simple solution?

    Pay attention to the facial expressions of Jeb’s audience. He is such a total idiot, it’s scary.


    August 30, 2015 at 11:00 PM

    • If you stay you can have a kid that’s a citizen, build credit toward welfare eligibility (5 years with a green card), and build credit toward a green card/naturalization. Leaving resets all those things to zero.

      Almost all US Visas work on the assumption the immigrant wants to stay permanently, so it wouldn’t make sense to not allow family reunification. All of the Bush-Obama “Guest Worker,” programs make the same assumption. In other words, they’re permanent migration schemes.


      August 31, 2015 at 11:04 AM

    • We have agricultural and other types of short term work visas for just that purpose. When sugar was big in Florida, they used to bring in Jamaicans to cut the cane. They worked a couple of months, then went back to Jamaica to spent their comparatively big earnings. The problem is that if you bring workers in on a visa, you have to pay them a fair wage and follow a bunch of rules. It’s much easier to just pick them up at the Home Depot parking lot every morning. If one of them is hurt on the job, just bury him with a backhoe and no one’s the wiser.

      Mike Street Station

      August 31, 2015 at 11:23 AM

  18. This “fundraising” screw-up in Boston shows Trump’s lack of experience, or something.


    August 31, 2015 at 1:41 AM

  19. The fact that Ben Carson is polling so high means we’re not at all in serious territory yet. (Some might say the same is true for Trump, of course. Others might say that if serious territory means ¡Jeb! and Hillary!! then leave me out of it.)

    Carson is a fine speaker who knows his field. I think he could work well as a health czar or the equivalent. It would be a good capstone to a distinguished medical career.


    August 31, 2015 at 5:03 AM

  20. Trump is right. On a human level it’s hard to deport them and this is why the deportation may not happen, but the border will be closed and insane immigration policies changed. We have to be practical about what can be accomplished.

    Yesterday I worked in a fully Hispanic building. Not a single sign in English in the gym, Latin music and despicable rap blasting, tons of kids and Latin American Indians around. Really, really infuriating. BUT, these guys work and are fairly successful by their standards, the neighborhood has nice restaurants and supermarkets, people have money and foodstamps. Nor likely that they will get deported,but who knows? I’m conflicted in a this situation and so is Trump and he says it openly and this is why we like him, because he says it as it is.


    August 31, 2015 at 7:48 AM

  21. Will you guys still vote for Trump, if he chooses Hulk Hogan, as his running mate?

    More insanity is on the way, for Meriprolestan.

    The bright side is that Hulk Hogan could turn out to be a Jesse Ventura of Minnesota. But I highly doubt it, given his lower intellect.


    August 31, 2015 at 9:50 AM

    • That’s not going to happen. Trump is not going to select a running mate who he wouldn’t trust to run one of his hotels. He will pick someone with gravitas.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      August 31, 2015 at 10:19 AM

      • He’s either picked Cruz or he is trying to convince someone (us, Cruz?) that he’s picked Cruz.


        August 31, 2015 at 11:34 AM

    • More insanity is on the way, for Meriprolestan.

      Still waiting for you to move to Canada or Europe.

      But you aint going are you?


      August 31, 2015 at 12:41 PM

      • I’m out of the country, already!


        August 31, 2015 at 7:00 PM

  22. It appears that now Scott Walker, has forgotten to take his meds, like most of our politicos:

    Scott Walker: Building a Wall Along U.S. Border With Canada a ‘Legitimate Issue’


    August 31, 2015 at 10:48 AM

    • The Dean Scream of Scott Walker? Too bad, I kind of like him, he can fight. However, realistically speaking he’s too much of a lightweight to win on the national stage at this time. Take the opportunity to learn from Trump though.


      August 31, 2015 at 3:26 PM

      • The border police between the 2 countries couldn’t be more different, than night and day. Canadian Mounties treat Meriproles, with more respect than their own border thugs. This being said, the likelihood of Canucks sneaking into Meriprolestan is close to nil. However, us wanting to leave for the Great White North, is more of a reality.


        August 31, 2015 at 7:14 PM

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