Just released poll of likely Iowa caucus goers shows that Trump is in the lead at 23% and Ben Carson has a very strong second place at 18%.
It looks like the hardcore evangelical Christian vote is coalescing around Carson, which is good news for Trump because if the anti-Trump vote splits between Carson and Bush, Trump can win the nomination. (Although based on this poll, hardly anyone in Iowa is going to vote for Bush)
Additional good news for Trump is that his favorability rating has jumped to 61% positive, putting him ahead of Jeb Bush.
If Trump can win Iowa and New Hampshire it’s hard to see how he could possibly lose the nomination.