Lion of the Blogosphere

2008 polls

The whacky 2008 election is given as an example of how early front-runners can fail. However, if you look at the polls, you will see that although Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani (the poll leaders in September 2011) faded, McCain was always hanging back there in the double digits. Jeb Bush, the guy who is supposed to eventually win (according to prediction markets), is only in the single digits. Only 6% in the most recent CBS poll.

It was easier for McCain to come back from the double digits than it will be for Bush to come back from the single digits. McCain was generally well liked and was considered a war hero. Bush has a lot more negatives associated with him because voters are tired of Bushes. McCain had a much stronger claim to being next in line. I think McCain was a better politician.

Thompson was one of those guys who the evangelical right likes to flirt with (because of his strong pro-life position) but had no support outside of that group. They later discovered Huckabee who was the better candidate. Giuliani was a genuine candidate who could have won support from the elites, but he was a lousy debater and had nothing interesting to say. Being pro-choice also hurt him with Republicans.

Trump isn’t like Thompson or Giuliani.

2012 Polls

Perry was in first place in September 2011 but Romney was a close second and polled around 20%, and furthermore had a strong next-in-line aura, having competed well in the 2008 primaries.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

September 16, 2015 at 2:00 pm

Posted in Politics

14 Responses

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  1. PoorGradStudent

    September 16, 2015 at 2:28 pm

    • The guy fits the perfect description, of what prole law students, should look like!

      JS

      September 16, 2015 at 8:04 pm

  2. Why is the election campaign two years long?

    Curious

    September 16, 2015 at 2:59 pm

    • …because they need to raise lots of money, and to do that they need to show their viability as candidates. IOW chicken and egg.

      Mrs Stitch

      September 16, 2015 at 5:54 pm

  3. in the social proof department: Tom Brady endorses Trump for president.

    http://news.yahoo.com/brady-says-hes-supporting-trump-president-194347820–politics.html

    Anon1

    September 16, 2015 at 4:29 pm

    • Tom Brady endorses Trump for president.

      Both have foreign born wives.

      Which proves they are not xenophobic or that they hate all LEGAL immigrants!

      Rifleman

      September 16, 2015 at 6:14 pm

    • Both have foreign born wives.

      Which proves they are not xenophobic or that they hate all LEGAL immigrants!

      Their wives are the best ads possible for whites only immigration.

      The Undiscovered Jew

      September 16, 2015 at 10:06 pm

  4. I think that McCain was also a replacement for Giuliani. At this stage in the 2008 cycle, Republicans were primarily concerned with national security. Giuliani seemed like the best guy for that role, but once he came apart, McCain had superb credentials to take up that role.

    Sid

    September 16, 2015 at 4:58 pm

  5. Giuliani was killed by the Kerik scandal and Fred Thompson was the laziest candidate in memory. He didn’t have anyone who knew how to run a campaign, and never even completed much of the necessary paperwork. Plus the man took off weekends to watch college football.

    Snape

    September 16, 2015 at 6:19 pm

  6. Thompson was one of those guys who the evangelical right likes to flirt with (because of his strong pro-life position) but had no support outside of that group.

    Thompson wasn’t a social con. He got early buzz because he was somewhat famous and looked like a plausible candidate, on paper at least. In practice he was done in by a lifeless campaign.

    Giuliani started off with a lead because he had star power, that lead vanished without policies the base could support.

    Trump is perhaps the best positioned ‘celebrity’ Republican candidate since Reagan: Trump brings star power combined with the right mix of policies including the most important issue, immigration.

    The Undiscovered Jew

    September 16, 2015 at 6:59 pm

  7. I see Thompson on TV selling insurance or mortgages or something like that. Ex US Senators usually dont do that. Kind of lowers their status.

    Al

    September 16, 2015 at 7:07 pm

    • Oh come on, there’s that former President you always see selling insurance on TV… nothing wrong with that, the man needs to make a living somehow.

      Tarl

      September 17, 2015 at 12:16 pm

  8. “Giuliani was a genuine candidate who could have won support from the elites, but he was a lousy debater and had nothing interesting to say. Being pro-choice also hurt him with Republicans.”

    If I remember correctly, there were debates in the fall of 2007 and Rudy was said to have done quite well in them (I don’t know because I never watch debates – too afraid someone will embarrass himself!) And he must have had something interesting to say or he wouldn’t have drawn good crowds or received such applause everywhere he spoke. Rudy was the celebrity candidate of 2007, the way Trump is the celebrity candidate of 2015. Rudy’s issue was national security (which he was supposed to have credentials on having been mayor of a city that was attacked.) and Trump’s is immigration. I think that Trump has only a slightly higher chance of becoming the nominee than Rudy had in 08. However, I do think that Trump is more likely to leave a lasting influence than Rudy because his stand on the immigration issue is more specific and unique than Rudy’s toughness on terrorism was.

    The “John McCain” of the 2016 contest is Scott Walker, not Jeb Bush (imho). He’s really the only candidate who can be acceptable to all wings of the party even though he’s not particularly exciting. Every other candidate has serious flaws. I’m referring to who is likely to be the nominee, not necessarily who would make the best president. Jeb’s main flaw is his last name.

    I think Lion may be rewriting the history of the 2008 race in order to minimize the similarities between the Giuliani and Trump candidacies. I only hope the Lion won’t “roar” at me for saying this!

    Maryk

    September 16, 2015 at 8:13 pm

  9. I think McCain was a better politician.

    If “better” is defined as “successfully throwing the election to the Democrats” — which is the assigned role for creatures like Dole, McCain, Romney, and Jeb.

    Tarl

    September 17, 2015 at 12:18 pm


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