Lion of the Blogosphere

New CNN poll

First post-debate telephone poll conducted by CNN/ORC

Trump 24%
Fiorina 15%
Carson 14%
Rubio 11%
Bush 9%
Cruz 6%
Huckabee 6%
Paul 4%
Christie 3%
Kasich 2%
Santorum 1%

This poll is good news for Fiorina and Rubio who jumped up since the previous poll.

As a Trump supporter, I am disappointed that he is only at 24% and not in the 30s.

Bush, the presumed nominee—polls notwithstanding—according to prediction markets, hangs in there at 9%, not helped by the debate, but not worse than where he was, in this poll, two weeks ago.

Walker, despite being in the debate, did not get enough support to register. I think it’s time for him to drop out.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

September 20, 2015 at 3:56 pm

Posted in Politics

42 Responses

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  1. I still think that Walker would have remained in the top 3 if Trump hadn’t sucked all of the oxygen out of the room. I would rather he stagger along at least until Iowa in case Trump finally does hit a wall.

    Trump may be hitting a ceiling if he can’t start actually talking about the issues. He needs to crack the books and wow ’em at the next interview or debate by showing off some detailed policy knowledge.

    Mike Street Station

    September 20, 2015 at 4:44 pm

    • He has talked about big issues of ideology. He’s the only candidate who has viewpoints out of lockstep with Republican-Party-elite dogma. That’s more important than knowing the names of generals in Iraq.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      September 20, 2015 at 5:03 pm

      • I agree that he doesn’t need to go too much into specifics, but he may need new catch phrases and talking points. He’s covered so heavily by the media that I think I’ve heard his stump speech and the same lines a hundred times now. They’ve obviously been successful so far, but he may need new phrases or twists on the phrases to expand support. I like to watch whenever he’s on TV, but I change the channel now because I’ve heard his stock speech and phrases so many times now.


        September 20, 2015 at 6:11 pm

      • The president has to have a positive vision for what he wants to do, not merely opinions about what he hates.


        September 20, 2015 at 7:12 pm

      • I understand the criticism about same old talking points. But I appreciate the ideas he’s expressed and the consistency with which he expresses them. The fact he keeps beating the same drum may be boring but it reassures me that he means it. I particularly appreciate that they’re at odds with the establishment. The fact that the establishment hates him for it also reassures me. I’m tired of hand-picked prostitutes on both sides turning the tricks that their big money customers paid for. There is only one issue that matters today or has mattered for the last 50 years — immigration. America is being undone and turned into a 3rd world sewer. It needs to stop and he’s the only one I trust to do it.


        September 21, 2015 at 9:37 am

    • Look, he’s got an immigration paper and a second amendment paper out. What has ¡Jeb! done in the meantime? Or Sleepy Ben Carson? Or Secretariat? Or anyone else? Trump actually seems the most substantial of the ones we’ve got.


      September 20, 2015 at 6:48 pm

      • Trump is the most substantial. That much is clear now. But Tom is right, some new rhetoric or twists on existing lines would go a long way. He’s on television so much if he only slightly elaborated his positions and made an effort to tie all the other candidate’s positions back to immigration he could steadily pull away from the field.

        Andrew E.

        September 20, 2015 at 9:55 pm

      • I agree that Trump may need to refresh or extend his message to pull in more voters, but I disagree that “detailed policy knowledge” is the way to go tp achieve that. He may have to do some reading for defensive purposes, but going there is just an invitation to mud wrestle with any number of pedantic cuckservatives about obscure details, all just to give the cast of losers a way to get some purchase. The media and political consultants will love it but who else wants that?

        Consider: Who gave a hoot about Obama’s policy proposals in 2008?


        September 21, 2015 at 10:47 am

      • Yep. Policy-wonkish behavior hasn’t ever won big points with the American electorate.

        Viscount Douchenozzlé

        September 21, 2015 at 3:26 pm

  2. There is no way this poll isn’t corrupted.

    The left and right are teaming up to MAKE Trump lose no matter what.

    Western Civ can not be allowed to save itself.


    September 20, 2015 at 5:48 pm

    • At the highest levels the left and right have always worked together. Why wouldn’t they? They’re the same people. Let’s examine how they work together on immigration. Special interests want cheap labor whether it’s fruit pickers or code monkeys. This requires increasing the supply of workers. So they push immigration to increase the supply of workers. Even worse, they use our tax dollars to subsidize these workers wages with welfare, food stamps, housing subsidies, etc. H1B’s may not get these subsidies but they piggyback off of the low wage immigrants. If not for the latter the former would have been quashed a long time ago. Businesses just love socialism when it lowers their labor costs.


      September 21, 2015 at 9:45 am

      • Immigration isn’t socialism. Nothing do do with it. The only connection is that liberals in the U.S. push both socialism and immigration.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        September 21, 2015 at 9:58 am

      • I’m not saying that immigration is socialism. I’m saying that socialism is being used to subsidize cheap labor and drive wages down through immigration.


        September 21, 2015 at 10:26 am

      • Socialism means that the government owns the means of production, not that the government allows massive immigration. In fact, the theory behind socialism is that it’s supposed to benefit the regular people more than capitalism. Allowing in immigrants to worsen the lives of the regular people is the antithesis of socialism.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        September 21, 2015 at 10:35 am

      • ONCE AGAIN… I’m not saying that immigration is socialism. I’m saying that socialism is being used to subsidize cheap labor and drive wages down through immigration.

        There are several variants of socialism ranging from government ownership to government control to voluntary coops. Most consider government redistribution of wealth to be socialist.


        September 21, 2015 at 12:51 pm

  3. Why is Fiorina running for POTUS? Power, status, celebrity? I don’t for a second get the impression that she has a deep concern for the nation and thinks she’s the best to set things right. I do get this feeling from Trump.

    Andrew E.

    September 20, 2015 at 7:09 pm

    • Does the Silicon Valley elite laugh at the Republican Party that they are putting up Carly Fiorina? They must think that they are a joke that’s failed CEO is the establishment’s preferred nominee.


      September 20, 2015 at 9:23 pm

    • Fiorina is a joke, but now the republican establishment is propping her up. She would have been out of the race already if they didn’t affirmative action her into the debate after she didn’t qualify.


      September 20, 2015 at 10:09 pm

    • Carly does extremely well in interviews and debates. That gives her a shot at winning regardless of her ideas or principles. To be honest, I’m not sure she really has any ideas or principles. That’s a bonus for the establishment who only cares about a candidate who’ll do what they’re told. Fiorina is a mercenary.


      September 21, 2015 at 9:50 am

      • Carly wants to be President for the power and not because she wants to do any good for the U.S. She will run the government like she ran HP, she will appoint a bunch of ass-kissing cronies to be her top people and the mismanagement will be extreme.

        Trump genuinely wants to make America better. (As a narcissist he wants to be remembered as the greatest president ever, so he will work at it.)

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        September 21, 2015 at 10:01 am

      • I agree. Also, I don’t think narcissism, patriotism, concern for others, etc are necessarily mutually exclusive. I think Trump is a genuinely compassionate guy who cares about the country.


        September 21, 2015 at 10:31 am

      • She doesn’t even want to be President. She is just there to take down Trump — the latest establishment torpedo aimed at the USS Donald. If she succeeds in eliminating Trump then Heb will easily eliminate her.


        September 21, 2015 at 3:54 pm

    • In other words, what is the carrot dangling in front of her?


      September 21, 2015 at 12:57 pm

  4. People are sheep. Enough anti-Trump media noise is going to have its impact. I would imagine the impact of social media is even worse. Though I’d also suspect Trump has a good amount of “secret” supporters, people who would be embarrassed to tell a pollster they support him, but would pull the lever for him.


    September 20, 2015 at 7:24 pm

  5. Has anyone noticed that even in this poll, 75% of voters are NOT in favor of Trump? My guess is that Trump begins the start of a long decline in the polls and is not even in the top 3 at the time voting starts.

    Lion, I completely disagree with you here. Scott Walker is the best candidate to unite all wings of the party. There are no real drawbacks to a Walker nomination. Walker is just not very exciting (but then neither was John McCain.) Every other candidate has serious flaws.


    September 20, 2015 at 8:04 pm

    • Have you noticed that even in this poll 100% of the voters are NOT in favor of Walker?


      September 20, 2015 at 10:01 pm

      • Walker isn’t exactly exciting for the Meriproles, who like roller coaster drama.


        September 20, 2015 at 10:32 pm

      • Touché, Winston! But my point was that even though Trump has every advantage now, he still doesn’t become the first choice of more than 24% of the Republican electorate. Walker seems to have fallen off the charts, yes. But as we saw in late 2007, things can change quickly when voters get close to casting their ballots. Remember in September 2007 when we were all sure it would be a Clinton-Giuliani contest? John McCain, with more political liabilities than Scott Walker, was sinking like a rock even though he had been leading before Rudy entered the race. Obama was then considered a promising candidate for the future. But few thought he’d wrest the nomination from Hillary/ There was even a book written by Shelby Steele called “Why we are excited about Obama – and why he can’t win.” If anyone in 9/2007 had said that Rudy would end up with a single delegate and that Obama would carry the state of Montana in November he would have been laughed at – literally.


        September 20, 2015 at 10:52 pm

      • If anyone comes back to beat Trump, it will be Bush and not Walker. And we don’t want another president Bush.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        September 21, 2015 at 12:11 am

    • I agree that Walker remains the best of the rest, which is why I want him to hang in there as long as possible. But the reason he’s dropped so much is that the people who would be leaning towards Walker are now on the Trump bandwagon. Trump directly effects Walkers’ poll numbers, unlike Bush, who would have been about the same whether Trump was in the race or not.

      Mike Street Station

      September 20, 2015 at 10:12 pm

      • I previously thought Walker was a good candidate, but after seeing him in the debates, there’s no way he can win anything. Sorry.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        September 20, 2015 at 10:17 pm

      • There is a big gap between what he’s actually done as Governor and how he presents himself.

        Mike Street Station

        September 20, 2015 at 10:21 pm

  6. Not necessarily bad news. The poll may not have taken into account the full effect of Trump’s awesome response about Obama’s religion. Meanwhile NBC’s poll has Trump at 29%, Fiorina second, and Carson third.

    Like MikeStreetStation I’m disappointed Walker isn’t at least ahead of Rubio. However he should remain as a backup in case Trump loses momentum.

    The Undiscovered Jew

    September 20, 2015 at 8:14 pm

  7. Speaking of prediction markets, you can still buy Rubio at a discount. He was 8:1 last I checked the odds though this was some time ago. I don’t bet on the political futures markets so I am not buying any candidate.


    September 20, 2015 at 8:24 pm

  8. It’s no surprise that Trump’s Cult of Personality is leading in the polls. A very wealthy guy, who promises the everyman his world, undone by other elites, is quite convincing. He makes superficial promises and offers cheap talk-solutions to the masses, and they fall for his spiel.


    September 20, 2015 at 8:29 pm

    • Immigration isn’t cheap talk. Getting rid of illegals and stopping the influx of new immigrants will IMMEDIATELY create demand for American labor. It will magically lower the unemployment rate.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      September 20, 2015 at 9:50 pm

      • Booting illegals will lower unemployment, boost wages and reduces public spending. It’s probably one of the biggest boosts the economy could get. I think it would be big enough boost to up the minimum wage and still grow the economy. I’d be willing to raise the minimum wage to reduce the demand for low-wage labor. Higher minimum wage would reduce business demand for immigration. Because of this I am officially coming out in favor of the $15 min wage.


        September 20, 2015 at 10:19 pm

      • The general rule is that charlatans who puff and bluff, usually fall short on their promises.

        Mayor Bloomberg is the only politician I witnessed in my lifetime, who didn’t mince any megalomaniacal goals or solutions, and kept NYC sliding into its good ol’ days.


        September 20, 2015 at 10:23 pm

      • * from sliding…


        September 20, 2015 at 10:28 pm

    • A great post, JS! But I’m not really sure the audience is “falling” for Trump. They’re using him. I hate sexual analogies, but they fit here. The voters are making Trump think they intend to vote for him and are misleading him about his chances of winning. Like when a woman makes a man think he’s going to get some action but doesn’t follow through. It’s vulgar, so I won’t use it. But it rhymes with “block-wheezer.”


      September 20, 2015 at 11:05 pm

      • MaryK — I’m a one candidate voter and Trump is it. I’m not even flirting with any others. I fully intend to “put out” on election day.


        September 21, 2015 at 9:58 am

  9. Trumps negatives are YUGE!

    I hope he wins but lots of people hate him.


    September 21, 2015 at 2:02 pm

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