Lion of the Blogosphere

Most recent SurveyMonkey poll

There were some comments about the accuracy of polls.

I trust SurveyMonkey the most, even though they are an online poll and not a telephone poll. Remember that, once up on a time, telephone polls were a novel concept but they have since become viewed as the gold standard. This is changing because telephone polls have a massive non-response rate; people are bombarded by telemarketing robocalls and they don’t want to bother with callers who aren’t from friends and family or work related. SurveyMonkey has a sound methodology to weight poll responses plus they are able to poll a much larger number of people because it’s less expensive to poll online than by telephone.

The most recent NBC/SurveyMonkey poll dates back to the last week of October and showed that Carson was tied with Trump at 26%, and that among the “real” politicians, Cruz led Rubio by 10% to 9%. Rubio’s support has probably gone up since then, but probably at the expense of other “real”politicians and not Bush or Carson.

If elections were held today, there is no doubt that Carson would win in Iowa where there is a strong evangelical Christian presence at the caucuses, and Trump would win in New Hampshire. The “real” politicians have less than three months to convince voters to dump Trump and Carson. Can they do it (with the help of the mainstream media)? Even though Giuliani’s campaign fell apart in December 2007, Trump’s supporters are a lot more enthusiastic about him than Giuliani’s supporters were in 2007. I don’t think that Trump is going to collapse as easily.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

November 10, 2015 at EDT am

Posted in Politics

14 Responses

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  1. Don’t be fooled that Carson is some sort of outsider. He supports TPP, amnesty, Puerto Rican statehood and is shaky on the 2nd amendment. His campaign is propped up by globalist money/super PACs. He’s another pawn but probably doesn’t even know it. See this:

    Andrew E.

    November 10, 2015 at EDT pm

    • I think you’re right that Carson’s actual positions are establishment approved, but he’s still an outsider as far as the Republican establishment is concerned. The reason he’s appealing in the polls now is because of the evangelical Christianity.

      Mike Street Station

      November 10, 2015 at EDT pm

      • See the link I pasted. The big money is targeting certain groups with their fundraising to generate interest in Carson. And then they can drop him whenever it suits their interests. He’s being used and he’s too nice/trusting/gullible to understand.

        He really has no business running for POTUS.

        Andrew E.

        November 10, 2015 at EDT pm

    • I agree Carson sucks, but his money is not corporate. He relies on small-dollar direct mail. That also means the value of his fundraising is deceptive. He spends about $70 on direct mail to raise $100.

      Once the 2016 race is over, he can sell the direct mail list he created for a lot of money, and then keep it. Or more precisely, his campaign will sell the list and then pay him a salary after the race if done.

      For whatever reason, black conservatives are honey to random elderly small town evangelical conservatives. Before Carson, Allen West was the number 1 fundraiser in the house, ahead of even the Speaker and minority leader, raising something like $8 million (and then having $6 million in fundraising costs). Mia Love also was a huge fundraiser.


      November 12, 2015 at EDT pm

  2. Personally, I think that Carson will collapse before Iowa. Even if he wins Iowa, I don’t see him getting much further than that. He leaves a favorable first impression, but that’s about it. Once you scratch the surface, it’s clear that he doesn’t have much of an idea about policy.

    I think that Rubio will be the Establishment candidate. The only viable alternative I see for that slot is John Kasich, and be has made little traction this race. Jeb becomes less appealing the more you look at him.

    The big what-if is whether Trump implodes or not. So far, he’s shown a lot more durability than the Establishment expected. Personally, I don’t think that any one gaffe will do him in, but his brash personality becomes obnoxious after awhile, so he may well wear thin on people’s patience.

    If Trump implodes, Cruz should be able to absorb a lot of his support.


    November 10, 2015 at EDT pm

    • I dont necessarily agree with your last sentence, I think a lot of Trump voters would just not vote if trump is out. I’m in that category.


      November 10, 2015 at EDT pm

      • I said that Cruz would absorb a lot of Trump’s support, not all of it.

        Essentially, a disproportionately high number of Trump supporters would wind up supporting Cruz. And if Cruz secures the nomination, I’m sure a lot of Trump supporters would be happy to make due with Cruz if the alternative is Hillary.


        November 10, 2015 at EDT pm

      • If Trump loses the nomination, I’m voting for Hillary.

        Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.

        -H. L. Mencken


        November 10, 2015 at EDT pm

      • Many will vote Sanders given the option, which is a major strategic problem for the GOP.

        Viscount Douchenozzlé

        November 11, 2015 at EDT am

    • Carson is running for VP. Don’t delude yourselves.

      Viscount Douchenozzlé

      November 10, 2015 at EDT pm

  3. Carson and Bush? Or Carson and Trump?


    November 10, 2015 at EDT pm

  4. The Trump/Giuliani comparison is interesting to me as I have been planning on writing something to compare the two. They both represent what I call “authoritarian liberalism” which seems to be a phenomenon of post-Civil Rights era New York City. Trump is not a conservative, it is true, but that is not the point, a law and order liberal will accomplish almost the same thing.


    November 10, 2015 at EDT pm

  5. Lion, how do these online polls work? Are people randomly messaged or emailed somehow in the way that phone numbers are randomly dialed with phone polling? Are pop-up windows appearing on people’s screens when they’re browsing?


    November 10, 2015 at EDT pm

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