Most recent SurveyMonkey poll
There were some comments about the accuracy of polls.
I trust SurveyMonkey the most, even though they are an online poll and not a telephone poll. Remember that, once up on a time, telephone polls were a novel concept but they have since become viewed as the gold standard. This is changing because telephone polls have a massive non-response rate; people are bombarded by telemarketing robocalls and they don’t want to bother with callers who aren’t from friends and family or work related. SurveyMonkey has a sound methodology to weight poll responses plus they are able to poll a much larger number of people because it’s less expensive to poll online than by telephone.
The most recent NBC/SurveyMonkey poll dates back to the last week of October and showed that Carson was tied with Trump at 26%, and that among the “real” politicians, Cruz led Rubio by 10% to 9%. Rubio’s support has probably gone up since then, but probably at the expense of other “real”politicians and not Bush or Carson.
If elections were held today, there is no doubt that Carson would win in Iowa where there is a strong evangelical Christian presence at the caucuses, and Trump would win in New Hampshire. The “real” politicians have less than three months to convince voters to dump Trump and Carson. Can they do it (with the help of the mainstream media)? Even though Giuliani’s campaign fell apart in December 2007, Trump’s supporters are a lot more enthusiastic about him than Giuliani’s supporters were in 2007. I don’t think that Trump is going to collapse as easily.