There’s another debate tonight!
After the last debate, I declared that “Carson is the big winner of this debate,” primarily because he I thought that he sucked less than he did in previous debates, or maybe because I was just getting used to him.
The latest poll shows that Carson still leads Trump 24% to 23%, so maybe I was right about that. Rubio is in third place with 12%.
At this time in 2007, Giuliani was still in first place. Giuliani’s support began to collapse in mid-December. Some blame the Kerik scandal. Will someone be able to manufacture a scandal about both Carson and Trump so that Rubio can win the nomination? Perhaps the Carson scandal is already out there; Carson told a lot of whoppers about his childhood that appear to be fabrications.
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Also, after last debate, I wrote that “I think it’s time for Christie and Huckabee to drop out.” Someone at Fox Business News must have been reading my blog, because they removed those two from this debate. Thanks for listening, guys.
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In betting markets, Rubio is now the strong but not odds-on favorite. The wisdom of the crowd is that Trump and Carson will both magically disappear and make way for the “real” politician to emerge as the winner.
This has to happen pretty soon. If Carson wins Iowa and Trump wins New Hampshire, which would happen if the elections were today, it’s hard to imagine that Rubio would then come from behind and win all of the other states.
It’s notable that the wise crowd has finally figured out that Bush isn’t going to win, after they said he was for many months despite his negligible poll numbers. How long will it take the wise crowd to crown Trump, assuming Trump doesn’t have that predicted collapse in his support that’s supposed to happen sometime during the next two months?