If this Reuters tracking poll is to be believed, Trump surged ahead and Carson fell behind during the last ten days.
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A different poll shows that Trump has a more modest lead in the important New Hampshire primary, but still with twice the support of Carson and Rubio:
A survey from WBUR finds Mr. Trump leading the field of Republican presidential hopefuls with the support of 22 percent of likely Republican primary voters. Ben Carson and Senator Marco Rubio of Florida trail him, each with 11 percent, followed by Senator Ted Cruz of Texas at 8 percent.
Both the Reuters and WBUR polls show that Carson has fallen behind since October.
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A University of Massachusetts poll has Trump at 31%, Carson at 22%, Cruz at 13% and Rubio at 9%.
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Every poll agrees that Jeb Bush is not in the top four. When is he going to follow Bobby Jindal’s lead and drop out?
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The continuing widespread elitist belief that Trump will magically disappear is based on the 2008 elections in which Giuliani led in the polls throughout 2007, only to fade away in mid-December.
Oddschecker still shows that Rubio is predicted to win the nomination, but these betting sites were wrong about Jeb Bush who continued to be the favorite even though polls showed otherwise, so there’s a good chance they are also wrong about Rubio.
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Reminder: Trump has a serious campaign organization in Iowa. According to The Hill:
Trump has 12 paid staffers on the ground in Iowa, more than anyone running except for Jeb Bush. It’s an eclectic group that includes Tana Goertz, a participant from Trump’s “The Apprentice” show, and is led by heralded political operative Chuck Laudner, who engineered Santorum’s surprise victory in the state in 2012.
“More than any other candidate, we’ll learn on Feb. 1 whether his supporters show up,” said former Iowa GOP chairman Matt Strawn. “But there is no doubt in my mind that his team on the ground is doing everything they’re supposed to be doing to organize and sign people up for caucus training. They’re as technically proficient as you can be.”
So even though Carson may lead polls in Iowa (or maybe that’s no longer the case because Carson has been dropping in the polls), Trump’s superior organization could secure a victory.