Lion of the Blogosphere


If this Reuters tracking poll is to be believed, Trump surged ahead and Carson fell behind during the last ten days.

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A different poll shows that Trump has a more modest lead in the important New Hampshire primary, but still with twice the support of Carson and Rubio:

A survey from WBUR finds Mr. Trump leading the field of Republican presidential hopefuls with the support of 22 percent of likely Republican primary voters. Ben Carson and Senator Marco Rubio of Florida trail him, each with 11 percent, followed by Senator Ted Cruz of Texas at 8 percent.

Both the Reuters and WBUR polls show that Carson has fallen behind since October.

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A University of Massachusetts poll has Trump at 31%, Carson at 22%, Cruz at 13% and Rubio at 9%.

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Every poll agrees that Jeb Bush is not in the top four. When is he going to follow Bobby Jindal’s lead and drop out?

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The continuing widespread elitist belief that Trump will magically disappear is based on the 2008 elections in which Giuliani led in the polls throughout 2007, only to fade away in mid-December.

Oddschecker still shows that Rubio is predicted to win the nomination, but these betting sites were wrong about Jeb Bush who continued to be the favorite even though polls showed otherwise, so there’s a good chance they are also wrong about Rubio.

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Reminder: Trump has a serious campaign organization in Iowa. According to The Hill:

Trump has 12 paid staffers on the ground in Iowa, more than anyone running except for Jeb Bush. It’s an eclectic group that includes Tana Goertz, a participant from Trump’s “The Apprentice” show, and is led by heralded political operative Chuck Laudner, who engineered Santorum’s surprise victory in the state in 2012.

“More than any other candidate, we’ll learn on Feb. 1 whether his supporters show up,” said former Iowa GOP chairman Matt Strawn. “But there is no doubt in my mind that his team on the ground is doing everything they’re supposed to be doing to organize and sign people up for caucus training. They’re as technically proficient as you can be.”

So even though Carson may lead polls in Iowa (or maybe that’s no longer the case because Carson has been dropping in the polls), Trump’s superior organization could secure a victory.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

November 18, 2015 at 8:55 am

Posted in Politics

24 Responses

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  1. A few billionaires thought they would purchase the Republican party. They aren’t succeeding. I was frankly shocked by Trump’s revelation that Rubio had been purchased by Mark Zuckerberg.


    November 18, 2015 at 9:19 am

    • Yeah. the pro H1-B crowd (despite many traditionally being Democratic supporters) have been spending quite a lot of money with the GOP establishment in recent years. Ted Cruz is another such congressman.

      Viscount Douchenozzlé

      November 18, 2015 at 7:47 pm

      • “”


        But don’t think that let’s your socialist friends off the hook. None of them are even pretending to oppose h1b’s or illegals. In fact, they’re pushing for even more. But that’s not going to stop you voting for them is it? Or can we count on your support for the only candidate who’s made that the centerpiece of his campaign?


        November 18, 2015 at 10:41 pm

  2. Everyone just assumes that Trump will vanish in a puff of smoke before Iowa and the real race can begin. I can only assume that is based on wishful thinking. But even if he did, I still don’t see Rubio making it. How is Rubio going to talk his way out of his amnesty stance? The majority of the base opposes that and everyone knows that accepting Rubio means accepting amnesty. Are minds going to change in the Republican base about amnesty about the same time Trump vanishes in a puff of smoke?

    There is a lot of wishful thinking here…

    Mike Street Station

    November 18, 2015 at 9:21 am

  3. Every day in every way its becoming Cruz.

    Lion of the Turambar

    November 18, 2015 at 9:46 am

  4. Isn’t the Reuters poll an internet poll? That means it’s just made up and has no sample validity at all. Only the random selection polls are worth paying any attention to.


    November 18, 2015 at 9:51 am

    • It’s internet-based but not the type of poll that Drudge does that anyone can just take. If respondents are weighted properly, a poll conducted over the internet can be more valid than a phone poll.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      November 18, 2015 at 10:03 am

  5. In the last six contested Republican primaries (i.e., those in which no incumbent Republican president was running), the New Hampshire winner has gone on the win the nomination in four. Not a bad record, but not great either. I think winning in New Hampshire is important mainly from a fun-raising prespective, which isn’t crucial to Trump.

    I tend to lump Rubio with Bush III – pretty much a lightweight with an open borders mentality that appeals to the GOP elite. Rubio got a lot of buzz following the last debate, but I’m still not impressed. The election is almost a year away, and there’s a lot of water that remains to go over the dam, but I don’t think Trump will fade. One reason is money – the lack of which is the reason most candidates drop out (e.g., Jindal, Walker). Trump can fund his own campaign all the way to the general election.

    You’re right about the polls, but I still find the Drudge results interesting. Not “scientific,” of course, but the numbers are massive, and those who participate are likely GOP voters.

    Black Death

    November 18, 2015 at 10:31 am

    • I think winning in New Hampshire is important mainly from a fun-raising prespective, which isn’t crucial to Trump.

      But it’s crucial to Trump’s competitors, which makes it relevant to Trump. If his competitors have a harder time raising funds, it raises the chance of Trump winning.

      Dave Pinsen

      November 19, 2015 at 12:06 am

  6. If Jeb’s latest Syrian refugee waffling doesn’t finish him off I don’t know what will. First he’s for it, then against, now only for Christians, etc. It’s obvious that he is in favor of taking them in, only to back pedal after political pressure. From his logo and slogan to the debate performances, Jeb Bush may possibly be running the most lame campaign in American history. Literally no one wants this puppet to be President aside from a handful of rich donors. Despite the fact that hardly anyone in his own party wants him i expect him to stay in until the bitter end. His sense of entitlement seems to know no bounds. Much like his brother he seems to live in an alternate reality from which he shielded by the force of his own arrogance. His strategy will be to sit on his money piles until the clock runs out and hope he’s the last man standing.


    November 18, 2015 at 11:15 am

    • ” His strategy will be to sit on his money piles until the clock runs out and hope he’s the last man standing.”

      In most Presidential election years, that might be a pretty good strategy. That’s how Romney ended up as the nominee. However I don’t think this time it’s going to work.

      Mike Street Station

      November 19, 2015 at 8:29 am

  7. “If this Reuters tracking poll is to be believed, Trump surged ahead and Carson fell behind during the last ten days.”

    Given his position on immigration and refugees, one would expect a surge after the Paris attacks.

    “Both the Reuters and WBUR polls show the Carson has fallen behind since October.”

    As the first primary state, evangelical Iowa carries disproportionate influence and candidates pander to them early on. But the evangelical favorite fades as candidates shift focus and more people start paying attention. Carson has positioned himself entirely as the evangelical favorite. As such, he’ll have his best showing in Iowa. But he’ll flame out and a good chunk of his followers will migrate to Cruz. I used to think Carson was hurting Trump but now think he’s hurting Cruz.

    “Every poll agrees that Jeb Bush is not in the top four. When is he going to follow Bobby Jindal’s lead and drop out”

    Shhhh… I enjoy watching Bush getting whipped. And it’s so adorkable that the establishment now thinks Rubio can win.

    “The continuing widespread elitist belief that Trump will magically disappear”

    The immigration issue has very long legs. And the Dems are playing into it by pushing immigration and refugees.

    “Reminder: Trump has a serious campaign organization in Iowa.”

    Cruz has a serious game going in the South as well. Cruz has pretty much ceded Iowa and New Hampshire and spent his time focusing on the Southern states which follow. If a winner doesn’t emerge in the early primaries, Cruz has positioned himself to inherit Carson and Trump supporters. Carson will actually decide the ultimate nominee by how well he does and how long he stays in. The longer he stays in and splits supporters with Cruz the better Trump will do.


    November 18, 2015 at 11:22 am

  8. The most interesting poll from a historical perspective is Gallup’s most admired man and woman poll because they’ve been asking the same question virtually every December for nearly 70 years, the poll is entirely open ended, & the fact that the sitting president is virtually always the most admired man, shows that the poll measures a very important type of status & power.

    I predict this December, Trump will leap to the number two spot among men behind only Obama & Dr. Ben Carson will be in the top 4.

    Meanwhile the brilliant Carly Fioriana (who Lion thinks is evil ) will appear among the top ten women for the first time, probably around third place, behind only Hillary & Oprah & if she’s lucky, ahead of the First Lady.


    November 18, 2015 at 1:02 pm

  9. I still don’t trust online polls.

    Glad to see Carson finally show signs of decline. I honestly didn’t think it would happen because people weren’t supporting him based on policy but rather on how much they liked him.

    The Giuliani thing is a horrible analogy to Trump’s polling. Giuliani and Thompson were not insurgent candidates, the establishment had no problem with either of them. Also part of the reason both faded was because they did not seriously compete in IA and NH and after those two states the die was cast.

    Trump/Carson are totally different. The establishment hates them both and both will compete in Iowa and Trump is going to win NH.

    Otis the Sweaty

    November 18, 2015 at 1:50 pm

    • “Also part of the reason both faded was because they did not seriously compete in IA and NH and after those two states the die was cast.”

      That’s incorrect. Both dropped in national polls BEFORE IA and NH. The drop for Giuliania happened in December. In January 2008, McCain was leading national polls with numbers above 30%.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      November 18, 2015 at 2:27 pm

      • Hmmm, that’s interesting. I don’t remember the race that well. Was there any particular reason Giuliani dropped off so badly?

        In any case, Trump will be contesting Iowa, NH and SC. Giuliani did not. Also, there were natural places for Giuliani voters to go to: Romney and McCain. Trump voters would only go to Carson and Cruz, neither is acceptable to the establishment so again 2008 is not a proper parallel.

        What is interesting about the 2008 primaries, based on what you just said, is that we should expect that if Trump is leading the national polls in January then Trump will appear to be the likely nominee based on historical trends.

        Lion: as a man who has a great understanding of the liberal mind, there is something I want you to talk about. Obama, Hillary, the Dem governors and the liberal base have decided to go all in on allowing in more Syrian refugees. Needless to say, this is horrible politics from their perspective. In the past, the democrats have been good about hiding their insane anti-white, pro Islam, open borders agenda. Is that Democratic party gone? Are the 2016 Democrats really stupid/delusional enough that they will choose to make a politically suicidal stand in favor of the Syrian refugees?

        Otis the Sweaty

        November 18, 2015 at 4:00 pm

      • Possibly the Kerik scandal?

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        November 18, 2015 at 4:17 pm

  10. I note an interesting typo in my last post – “fun-raising” instead of “fund-raising.” Perhaps if candidates spent more time on the former, they wouldn’t have to worry about the latter. Trump does seem like a lot of fun, and he certainly has lots of funds.

    Anyway…… here’s a link to an interesting article that pretty much demolishes Carson. A key excerpt:

    Carson gets a pass because our society craves his narrative. He was a successful neurosurgeon at Johns Hopkins Hospital. He is also a successful author, and his rags-to-riches story is an inspiration for many. America loves narratives like Carson’s because they remove complexity from the world. Life becomes incredibly simple because all of its problems can be solved through determination, hard work, and an unwavering belief in God.


    Carson’s plenty smart – you don’t get to be a department chief at a place like Johns Hopkins without lots of IQ. But that’s not the point. Many of Carson’s answers seem naive or not well thought out. That’s probably why Trump went after him. If a candidate such as Bush II or Perry were saying such nonsense, the MSM would crucify them.

    Black Death

    November 18, 2015 at 3:28 pm

    • Trump went after Carson the man, rather than the issues Carson supports (amnesty, TPP, Puerto Rican statehood, etc.) because as someone above noted, Carson’s supporters don’t care most about issue but about Carson’s religious persona. So Trump decided to poke some holes in that persona.

      And I think Trump may be on to something. Carson may believe his story is true but he clearly doesn’t remember the specifics and what little specifics come out change from time to time. I think Carson may have over-dramatized some of his past because it was “mostly kinda true” and it made a good story that lots of people wanted to hear. He saw it was providing hope and inspiration so he went all in with it and sold a lot of books, gave a lot of speeches and met lots of good people. Of course, he cashed in nicely for himself too so everyone wins. What’s the harm? Well I think Trump caught on to this a while ago and decided last week it was time to end the Carson candidacy.

      Plus I’m sure Trump is also aware of the total scam that Carson’s super-PACs are where he bleeds money from his rabid evangelical fans, spending $6 or $7 dollars for every $10 he raises enriching some pretty awful professional fundraisers in the process. Trump’s really trying to do Carson’s supporters a favor by getting them take another look at the good doctor. He said as much in his Iowa takedown last week when he said regarding Carson, “Don’t be fools.”

      Andrew E.

      November 18, 2015 at 5:04 pm

  11. With HRC winning the D nomination in a cakewalk, D’s in open-primary states will be encouraged to cast an R ballot for Trump.


    November 18, 2015 at 4:06 pm

  12. Michael Brendan Dougherty has argued that Carson isn’t a serious candidate and hasn’t put any effort into building a ground game:

    Dave Pinsen

    November 18, 2015 at 7:20 pm

    • This says that Carson’s organization in Iowa is second only to Trump’s:


      November 18, 2015 at 9:34 pm

    • If Carson were a serious candidate he would have been briefed to not say mocking words about Terri Schiavo, who was, in the opinion of about 30 percent of the people who have heard of her, and in the opinion of about 60 percent of the Republicans who have heard of her, starved to death by a dirtbag husband against the wishes of her Christian caregiving parents and siblings. (When queried on the subject, Carson ignorantly and foolishly quoted a Shakespeare title – Much Ado About Nothing – in a pretentious mocking fashion, callously showing his genuine opinion about how little there was left in her brain – I know he didn’t fully know what he was saying, but that was a big issue in the country he wants to basically rule over, and if he had been a person who cared about the United States as much as he claims he does, he would have known better). Reagan deeply apologized for having signed pro-abortion legislation back in his arrogant days as California governor. Carson, I suppose, believes he can get away without a genuine apology so long as he is not taken seriously. That being said, the linked article gets quite a few things wrong. First, there was no “controversy” over the West Point acceptance. The reporter did not report the truth, Carson told the truth. It was not a controversy, it was a failed and fundamentally dishonest hit job. You wouldn’t know that from the linked piece. Second, Carson’s finances are what political neophyte finances always are – far short of ideal. Third, Carson is not running for president. He is running for vice president (along with Fiorina and, to tell the truth, young Mr Rubio). On that parameter, he is doing great. Of the other four frontrunners, only Rubio could not choose him as VP.

      howitzer daniel

      November 18, 2015 at 10:56 pm

      • Reagan deeply apologized for having signed pro-abortion legislation back in his arrogant days as California governor.

        Really? Where is the evidence for that?

        Carson, I suppose, believes he can get away without a genuine apology so long as he is not taken seriously.

        Nothing to apologize for. He understands brain science better than you or Terri Schiavo parasites.

        She was long gone, nothing but a shell left.

        Of the other four frontrunners, only Rubio could not choose him as VP.

        Actually there is only ONE front runner and that would be Donald Trump. He might select Carson for Surgeon General but that’s it.


        November 19, 2015 at 7:37 am

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