Lion of the Blogosphere

Establishment Republicans plan to vote for Hillary

The subject of Trump came up at a recent Beverly Hills lunch hosted by former U.S. Ambassador to the European Union Rockwell Schnabel.

Seated around the table in the private dining room of the Hotel Bel-Air were several of the West Coast’s most powerful Republican donors, including Ronald Spogli, the venture capitalist and former ambassador to Italy under President George W. Bush; his business partner Bradford Freeman; and Riordan.

A story that circulated after the lunch was that the donors engaged in a hypothetical question: “If it was Donald Trump running against Hillary Clinton, who would you vote for?”

One version has it that most of the Republicans at the table put their hands up for Clinton.

An indication that keeping the flow of immigrants is more important to these donors than anything else? Either that, or they fear Trump because, unlike all other politicians, they know he can’t be bought.

* * *

Rubio still remains a very strong favorite in betting markets, but those markets are now telling us that if Rubio doesn’t make it, then Trump is strongly favored as the second-most-likely nominee over everyone else.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

November 29, 2015 at 12:59 pm

Posted in Politics

35 Responses

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  1. The question is whether they’ll encourage and fund ¡Jeb! to run as an independent. It’s always been likely that the Republucan Praty would eventually split, but Trump makes it very likely if he wins the nomination that the establishment will give it a try as an independent party.

    I don’t think ¡Jeb! would necessarily swing the election; he’d probably get fewer votes than Nader in swing states. Michael Bloomberg is a more intriguing possibility and could pull in some disaffected Democrats.


    November 29, 2015 at 2:13 pm

    • Jeb raised his hand at that debate and said he’s support the Republican nominee. Boy would he look stupid reneging on that promise.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      November 29, 2015 at 3:53 pm

      • MSM and his donor buddies would forgive him.

        Actually, I doubt any politician is going to get in very much trouble for reneging on any promise no matter how explicit. If Trump decides to run as an independent, MSM will try to nail him for that, but he’ll just keep blustering his way through it until they give up.

        Greg Pandatshang

        November 29, 2015 at 6:01 pm

      • ¡Jeb! Would look stupid opposing another Republican. The Republican establishment does not consider Trump one of them. They can require him to promise but he is owed no loyalty in return.

        It was the same deal with Obama versus Hillary. Hillary was allowed to break the rules to campaign in prohibited states MI and FL and collect delegates but Obama would have been ejected from the convention and simply had to overcome the deficit.

        In both cases MSM supported the establishment unconditionally.


        November 30, 2015 at 1:22 pm

    • Michael Bloomberg is a stop & frisk, “take your vitamins” nanny stater. I don’t know who that appeals to outside of the unique situation of New York, which has a lot of latte-sipping SWPLs but also a high number of minorities they don’t want getting too rowdy. His efforts to ban soda would, alone, disqualify him with large swathes of fat-ass America.


      November 29, 2015 at 4:16 pm

    • Let him run as an independent. At this point Jeb would take more votes from Hillary than Trump.

      The Undiscovered Jew

      November 29, 2015 at 6:30 pm

  2. This is evidence that 2016 is going to be a realignment election like 1980 and 1932, be it good or bad. I think the establishment believes that if it can make Trump crash and burn, the grassroots will realize they were wrong and will come running back to approved candidates like Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio. What’s more likely to happen is that it would confirm to the base that the current establishment is a lot of money-hungry traitors and backstabbers who do not share their goals, and the separation becomes permanent.


    November 29, 2015 at 2:23 pm

    • If Trump doesn’t get the nomination, I predict civil war.


      November 29, 2015 at 4:13 pm

      • One can hope. Seriously.


        November 29, 2015 at 7:09 pm

      • I think it’s reached the point that a coup followed by a purge might have the support of a not insignificant minority of the public.


        November 30, 2015 at 10:22 am

  3. A friend who used to make money gambling on college basketball (back in the 80s and 90s) said everyone who made money had inside info on which players were going to tank the spread for a particular game and that the key to winning was to bet in games the mob had bought off and determine where the mob had their money. The meta take away was that gamblers constitute a population of dupes who don’t realize what they don’t know but feel the need to get in on the action anyway. I’m guessing the candidate markets operate the same way; driven by the dupes.


    November 29, 2015 at 3:24 pm

    • The candidate betting markets have to be pretty thin. I wonder if they aren’t rigged by the donors to give the illusion of inevitability to the donor candidate. Let’s say there are 10 trades a week. 2 trades for $100 are at the real price – for Trump or Cruz or the most likely candidate. The other 8 trades for $1 are for Rubio. Rubio looks like the favorite when in fact the majority of the money is on the other candidates.


      November 30, 2015 at 8:52 am

  4. I would have to say there is zero surprise in that. The GOP establishment types have been signaling for months that if Trump was the nominee, they were out. I think Bill Kristol said he would vote 3rd party rather than vote for Trump.

    My guess is that regardless of the primary votes or support, the establishment will do something to snatch away the nomination from Trump, who will then go third party, taking his support with him. Then, when candidate Kasich (or whoever) loses, they’ll blame Trump, but I think they’ll regard Hillary as President as still a win.

    Mike Street Station

    November 29, 2015 at 3:41 pm

  5. I don’t doubt the “one version”, but I think you’re taking some dark humor amongst some Republican high rollers a little too seriously. The largest issue in the 2016 election is the Supreme Court, and even hard core establishment Republicans will take a chance with Trump over the guarantee of leftist SC nominees from Clinton.


    November 29, 2015 at 3:53 pm

    • Republicans are usually upset with the Supreme Court over their rulings on social issues. The establishment, especially the monied establishment, either leans left on that stuff or doesn’t care. If you’re in the donor class, what’s so scary about the appointments of a corporate Democrat who has close ties with Wall Street?


      November 29, 2015 at 4:21 pm

    • “he largest issue in the 2016 election is the Supreme Court”

      ¡Jeb! will appoint more conservatives like David Souter, given the chance. Remember that for GOP establishment the key is to string along dumb evangelicals without ever doing anything for them.

      If the Supreme Court ever overturns Roe, Republicans will be decimated in the abortion fight. As long as white women feel safe opposing abortion for other people, they will. But open the issue for real and they’ll go Democrat like Puerto Ricans.

      So the GOP’s ideal for the Court is that Hillary appoint justices.


      November 30, 2015 at 2:59 pm

  6. Nitpick: The Hotel Bel-Air is in Bel-Air, not in Beverly Hills.


    November 29, 2015 at 5:24 pm

    • That IS a big nitpick, they are adjacent cities.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      November 29, 2015 at 10:08 pm

      • That’s not correct either.

        Beverly Hills is a separate and independent city. Bel-Air is the name of a neighborhood within the City of Los Angeles; it is not a city.


        November 29, 2015 at 11:34 pm

      • Los Angeles is on the west coast, right?


        November 30, 2015 at 1:37 pm

  7. Whether registered as Republican or Democrat the One Percent crowd are almost exclusively fiscally conservative/socially liberal in their outlook. This is why they always support centrist candidates that won’t rock the boat. If all is well in your world there is no need to change it. Both Jeb and Hillary are close enough on the spectrum to be deemed acceptable to either wing of the donor class.

    The fact that most GOP donors would vote for Hillary over Trump (or any other hard line conservative) does not surprise me at all. Hillary has been warming up to Wall Street for years, and for all intents and purposes both she and her husband are business friendly. Hell, do you remember when Bill balanced the budgest and had a surplus? When is the last time a Republican did that? They know that Hillary will not upset the apple cart because the future of the DNC depends on attracting more and more Wall Street money. Hillary is no liberal in the economic sense. She is closer to the old moderate “Rockefeller Republicans” of the previous century.


    November 29, 2015 at 6:40 pm

  8. It’s at last partly because Trump has zero class and acts like a totally unpresidential undignified doofus.

    Lloyd Llewellyn

    November 29, 2015 at 7:31 pm

    • Political correctness is a huge problem, since basically all the best answers to all the problems of our time are off limits. All the ‘dignified’ candidates seem unable to get to the root of issues because of this. The left makes up all sorts of nonsense (police trying to kill blacks, doctored climate data, ‘equality’ fictions, endless gender fictions, and much else) and it goes unchallenged by effete ‘conservatives’ who are apologizing for saying anything remotely true.

      Ronald Reagan was a brash and unapologetic guy and sometimes a goofball, but he shredded leftist BS because he was so confident and moved the Overton window to the right, something conservatives never seem to be able to do.

      I am not saying Trump is Ronald Reagan, but there are common aspects. I liked Romney a lot, but it is hard to see how someone like that moves the Overton window.

      But then I suspect from your past comments that you are a leftist who likes Republicans who ‘act with class’ so that they can dutifully roll over.


      November 30, 2015 at 9:50 am

      • Political correctness is being polite towards democratic constituencies while degrading and humiliating republican ones. That’s not the same thing as regular politeness. You can be for politeness and against political correctness.

        If the three main republican constituencies are whites, men, and Christians Trump really hasn’t done much to indicate he’s interested in helping any of those groups. He’s explicitly said he’d be the best president for women ever. He’s just talked up his own personal faithe like every other republican candidate ever and hasn’t proposed giving Christians preferential treatment for immigration or reeling in the supreme court’s anti christian rulings. He has explicitly stated that he supports anti white affirmative action. The closest thing to a pro white policy is promising to send immigrants back to their countries (in all likelihood so they can register there and reenter the US legally).

        I don’t have the reagan worshipping gene so how similar Trump is or isn’t to him doesn’t matter one bit to me.

        Lloyd Llewellyn

        November 30, 2015 at 10:30 am

      • “Political correctness is being polite towards democratic constituencies while degrading and humiliating republican ones. ”

        But you fight political correctness by “degrading and humiliating” Democrat constituencies. I don’t know how you do that and be polite at the same time.

        Politeness is just another word for unilateral disarmament. Mitt Romney was exceedingly polite and he was attacked as being anti-woman, homophobic and more anyway. Mitt Romney was the absolute best (smart, experienced, polite, well spoken, handsome, moderate) that could put forth according to the old rules and old coalition, at a time when Americans were quite dissatisfied, and it still didn’t bring a win.

        If the right’s destiny is to lose even when they should rightfully win, then the old game is dead. In that case, elections can be a time to use the soapbox to mock leftist lies. In that case you have a dissident strategy of being voice for truth and breaking the narrative. If the left’s destiny is the win anyway, then the dissident strategy is to rob them of legitimacy.


        November 30, 2015 at 11:37 am

      • Trump’s attitude reassures me that he is indeed a honey badger who can’t be bought or bullied. Unlike those other genteel faggots who can’t wait to slip their warm, moist lips around some billionaire donor’s checkbook.


        November 30, 2015 at 6:28 pm

      • Mitt Romney never once promised to do anything for the groups that actually vote for republicans: men, whites, and Christians. All he did was fawn over large corporations and the wealthy. I’m sure if someone did that in a polite intelligent way they would be attacked and then you would have a point but until that happens you don’t make any sense.

        It’s absolutely ridiculous to pretend that the problem with republicans is that they’re somehow too polite and not that they have an insane and deeply unpopular economic philosophy at the core of their party.

        Lloyd Llewellyn

        November 30, 2015 at 7:13 pm

      • Trump’s attitude reassures me that he is indeed a honey badger who can’t be bought or bullied. Unlike those other genteel faggots who can’t wait to slip their warm, moist lips around some billionaire donor’s checkbook.

        I don’t buy that for one minute. It costs over a billion dollars to run for president which Trump doesn’t have on hand wouldn’t be stupid enough to spend on this if he did.

        Lloyd Llewellyn

        November 30, 2015 at 7:19 pm

      • You “don’t buy it” but didn’t list any billionaire donors backing his campaign. So, tell us, who are all these secret establishment billionaires funding him?


        November 30, 2015 at 10:09 pm

      • The election has barely begun. Your comment wasn’t that he hasn’t been bought but that he can’t and won’t be. This is about the Oct 15 data and says that Trump has received money mostly from small donors but is ranked 14th in money raised overall.

        Lloyd Llewellyn

        December 1, 2015 at 8:36 am

  9. I am very sure that Trump has very tight security for his private 757. The list of people who want to get him includes El Chapo, various Islamic crazies, and who knows who else.

    If something were to happen to him, I think the establishment politicians of both parties would go “tisk, tisk,” and then not so subtly insinuate that he had it coming to him for saying the inflammatory things he has.

    In that scenario, if the GOP establishment were to be seen as siding with the Democrat establishment in a “he had it coming” sort of reaction, look out. You would see a wholesale desertion of the GOP by its grassroots, and probably also a bleeding off of what’s left of the (Bill) Clinton Democrats. Then we might actually get a genuine and viable 3rd party movement.

    Sgt. Joe Friday

    November 29, 2015 at 8:43 pm

  10. Regardless of why, the fact that is there is a huge, undeniable disconnect between the party elites, and the base. I can see why the elites want the current coalition. And why the Evangelical crowd does. But.. It ain’t 1988 and there is no obvious candidate that will coalesce the gang.

    Best case for Republicans –
    1. Hillary is Herbert Hoover or LBJ.
    2. They find a way to break up that peels off big chunks of the Dems.

    Good luck. Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch of guys.


    November 29, 2015 at 10:44 pm

  11. The thing is, Trump has very, very strong supporters:

    Every single day the media and everyone else makes fun of Trump, “What kind of idiot would vote for Trump?” “He’s a bozo!” type statements and there is no respect for Trump supporters.

    Anyone who can handle that kind of malicious bullying and still support Trump is all in on Trump. You can’t compare the attitudes of a Trump supporter vs. another Republican.

    If Trump gets the nomination stolen from him there will be consequences. Look at Lincoln, whom won the election despite every single southern state voting against him…if democracy no longer represents a large group of people, and they are made fun of, and made to feel like second class citizens, there will be a reaction.

    Trump victory is probably the last chance for democracy before things get weird. And I’m not saying Trump has to beat the democrats, because that’s up in the air- only that he has a chance to run. If he isn’t allowed to run then for all the conservatives who love him, hope dies and they all become desperate men.


    November 30, 2015 at 12:32 pm

  12. Any promises to move to Canada if Trump wins?


    November 30, 2015 at 1:40 pm

  13. Donald Trump is King Prole.


    November 30, 2015 at 6:22 pm

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