Lion of the Blogosphere

Pennsylvania: the key state (and also the Keystone State)

When stupid political pundits assure readers, and themselves, that Trump can’t win the Presidential election, they drone on about the Hispanic vote and how Trump has alienated them assuring that he will lose.

But the key to Trump winning lies not with Hispanics, it’s with prole whites in places like Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania, according to the 2010 Census, is 79% white and only 6% Hispanic. Pennsylvania ought to be a slam dunk for Republicans—Republicans always win in Georgia which is only 56% white—but in Pennsylvania Republicans keep losing.

I believe that in an election against Hilllary Clinton, Trump will be able to win the support of prole whites in Pennsylvania who have traditionally voted Democratic. This is because Trump speaks to issues that matter to prole whites: immigration, free trade deals, national security. Trump is smart enough to avoid focusing on issues that turn off prole whites, such as tax cuts for the rich and the big issue that divides whites, abortion. I wouldn’t be surprised if Trump moves to the center on those issues after winning the Republican nomination.

* * *

It just occurred to me that one of the reasons that journalists are so clueless about the Trump phenomenon is because they live in an upper-middle-class echo chamber. If they knew more proles, they’d better understand that Trump has a lot of support.

I’ve previously pointed out, many times, that journalists today almost entirely come from wealthy families, and they attended elite schools. They have no friends or relatives who are working class. They are cut off from what regular Americans think.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

November 30, 2015 at 10:45 AM

Posted in Politics

54 Responses

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  1. Do you think Trump will ever make explicit appeals to white interests (whites being given preferential treatment in immigration, opposing anti white discrimination, allowing easier residential and educational segregation, eugenics that in a color blind or color conscious way increases the white share of births, paying non whites to renounce citizenship, etc.)?

    Lloyd Llewellyn

    November 30, 2015 at 10:59 AM

    • He tweeted that “racist” image with false data about black crime (although the true data is pretty damning).

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      November 30, 2015 at 11:05 AM

      • But he didn’t say anything about actually solving the issue.

        Lloyd Llewellyn

        November 30, 2015 at 12:44 PM

      • It wasn’t false when normalizing for population differences

        Andrew E.

        November 30, 2015 at 12:54 PM

      • Immigration is a winner with ”degreed” whites as are other racially charged topics on the rare occasion when Republicans bring them up.

        Black crime gave Nixon and Reagan twice, and Bush once, landslide margins in educated white suburbs outside the South; in particular the collar counties of Chicago, suburban Philly and elsewhere across white suburbia. The allegiance of those suburbs latter flipped to Bubba Clinton once crime was brought under control. Those key swing voters never fully returned to the Republican fold, but Trump can win them back with immigration which has begun to bite the salaries of college educated whites.

        I suggest Trump’s goal should be not only to win bigger margins with blue collar whites outside the South, but to expand his total white voter margins by at least 4 points. White women, white professionals, every white demographic should be sought after with an at least 4 point improvement over Romney’s performance.

        Had Romney won 65% of the white vote in 2012 like Reagan did in 1984, instead of the 61% Romney actually got, Mitt would have won even with unusually high black turnout and disappointing white turnout.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        November 30, 2015 at 8:19 PM

      • He tweeted that “racist” image with false data about black crime (although the true data is pretty damning).

        Was it false or data just for the city of San Fransisco?

        It wasn’t accurate nation wide but I thought the data was for so far in 2015 San Fran.

        And again did he tweet it or was it his team trying to provoke media outrage?


        November 30, 2015 at 11:36 PM

  2. PA is not the keystone. It is irrelevant to winning. If Trump does manage to win PA, he will win in a landslide.

    Play with an electoral map. List the states in order of his likelihood of winning. See how many electoral votes he will have before PA comes into play. But don’t just order them by percent white. The Midwest is way ahead of PA and it’s enough to win.

    Douglas Knight

    November 30, 2015 at 11:00 AM

    • Pennsylvania has been trending GOP. In 2008 its margin was 3.06 points more Democratic than the US average, but in 2012 that Dem tilt had wilted to 1.53 points. Ohio, on the other hand, has been trending away from the GOP. In 2008 it was 2.68 points more Republican than the US average, but in 2012 only 0.88 points GOP-leaning relative to the center.

      If those trends hold, in 2016 Pennsylvania will be a dead center bellwether for the US electorate, while Ohio will favor the Democrats by as much as they favored the GOP last time. States like Wisconsin and Michigan have been shifting towards the GOP, but because they started off so strongly Democratic they have a longer way to go, and will probably still lean D in 2016.


      November 30, 2015 at 11:30 AM

      • Rural Pennsylvania has been trending strongly Republican, though until now in presidential elections that has been counter-balanced by the Philly suburbs trending Democratic, and population stagnation in rural Pennsylvania. I agree that Pennsylvania should no longer be considered to be a Democratic state. The Republicans now probably have a stronger chance of winning it than they do of New Hampshire.


        December 1, 2015 at 8:20 AM

      • NH is also prole white (except maybe the southern part is a SWPL suburb of Boston).

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        December 1, 2015 at 8:35 AM

    • The key to winning PA is professional whites. A strong Republican performance in suburban Philly combined with prole whites in the Pittsburgh area means the state goes Republican.

      Going after H1B and other “high skill” visas could be a way to pull upper income whites back into the Republican fold.

      Racially charged issues in 2016 that would be the equivalent of Lee Atwater’s anti-crime campaign in 1988 and which would be attractive to white professionals are the rise in crime, threat of terrorism, and continuing to link illegal immigration to crime.

      Oh, and Hillary’s foreign policy legacy is not looking so brilliant…

      The Undiscovered Jew

      November 30, 2015 at 8:31 PM

  3. Trump will have to stay on message, though. The media will work overtime trying to gin up controversies that distract from that, and unfortunately Trump has handed them opportunities. Because some of the “controversial” stuff he said really did help him (like the joke about liking war heroes that don’t get captured, which touched a nerve because people had been thinking that about John McCain for years but were too scared to say it), it’s created this crowd who says that every donnybrook is a win for him and advances his message, but that’s nuts.

    Trump risks making himself, his personality, the defining issue of the race and I don’t know that he wins that, even against Hillary. What drew people to him in the first place was his boldness in bringing up vital issues that people cared deeply about but which the establishments in both parties were embargoing from public discussion. When he’s not talking about that, he shrinks in stature.


    November 30, 2015 at 11:12 AM

  4. I agree. The Democratic strategist James Carville once said that Pennsylvania is Pittsburg on one side, Philly on the other, and Alabama in-between. He was absolutely right. The middle or “T” as we call it here in PA is solid red and very socially conservative. However, a lot of these people are hardworking union types whose parents worked in the steel and coal industries and they are distrustful of Wall Street type Republicans, like Romney for example. Trump is right down their alley.

    Also, many in the affluent Philly and Lancaster suburbs used to be Republicans but switched over to D’s because of the evangelical wing of the party that they find increasingly embarrassing. Trump is socially moderate and does not have a southern accent so that will help. Trump could definitely take Pennsylvania.


    November 30, 2015 at 11:16 AM

    • I’m a lifelong resident of all abouts southeastern PA. Around 2011 I lived in a prolier area and a lot of the people I worked with liked Trump when he was making news at the time contemplating running for 2012 and expressed hope that he would.

      The rural PA republicans are definitely the populist types who are driven away from the Democrats by race politics.


      November 30, 2015 at 7:14 PM

  5. The journos are actually upper class, that is by income in the upper 5% or so, not upper middle class.

    bob sykes

    November 30, 2015 at 11:31 AM

  6. I think Lion is wrong here. I agree that he shouldn’t focus on Hispanics, but states like PA are ripe for a big Hillary win. I think Trump’s personality likely turns off a lot of “decent” white ladies in the Keystone state (and his tax plan isn’t likely to win over the average Joe). I also think it’s a liability in places like Ohio, which is much more important for the Republicans than PA. The white woman factor will be huge in this election. Think of all the moms and grandmas who are ready to see a female president in their lifetime. My own mother in law comes to mind. They will turn out big for her.


    November 30, 2015 at 12:03 PM

  7. Some years ago I pulled off the highway in rural PA in order to make a pit stop. Wound up in a one-stoplight town that had a gas station and that was about it. And what did I see but a group of Hispanic yoots sitting on the sidewalk doing nothing. That contributed to my feeling that demographically, yeah we’re fucked.


    November 30, 2015 at 12:05 PM

    • Having to press one for English never stops infuriating me.


      November 30, 2015 at 1:54 PM

      • At least you don’t have to press two

        Alessandra Volta

        November 30, 2015 at 2:31 PM

      • Returning to NYC for the Thanksgiving Holiday, was the straw that broke the camel’s back for me, in terms of staying in Meriprolestan. Some kid and his dad were flying a drone over the Macy’s Day Parade, despite the heavy security. I’m convinced that I need to expatriate permanently. Furthermore, it’s only a matter of time that ISIS or some other Islamic extremist group, will find a weak spot and then all hell breaks loose.


        November 30, 2015 at 2:33 PM

      • Those were Russians. Cute.


        November 30, 2015 at 5:35 PM

      • JS, what happened? Father and son flying a drone, which is like flying a kite used to be, and you get all twisted out of shape that you never want to come back to US? Whats the problem?


        November 30, 2015 at 5:57 PM

      • Yakov — We live in a post scarcity world. Anything sold in Meriprolestan can be found in Canada. Or I can buy online.

        Why live in the United Prole States and subject yourself to the sheer inaneness of its people and the culture they propagate?

        Furthermore, being a New Yorker, I cannot live anywhere else in North America, with the exception of the French Speaking City in Quebec. A 40 hour work week in a boring city, can ruin your health very quickly.


        November 30, 2015 at 8:04 PM

      • “At least you don’t have to press two”

        Surprised this hasn’t been an anti-immigration ad yet.

        Don’t like pressing one for English? … Wait until you have to press two.


        November 30, 2015 at 9:43 PM

  8. “I’ve previously pointed out, many times, that journalists today almost entirely come from wealthy families, and they attended elite schools.”

    Is there any data on this? I suspect it’s correct.


    November 30, 2015 at 12:06 PM

  9. Compared to the other Republican candidates, Trump is probably the only one who has a shot at actually winning because he is the only candidate who can actually reach out to the only constituency the GOP has left: Prole whiles. Trump has a wrap on the working class like no one has had it in decades so if the GOP is going to win at all, it’s with Trump.

    However I suspect that the GOP establishment knows that already and just doesn’t care.

    Mike Street Station

    November 30, 2015 at 12:07 PM

  10. Hillary Clinton’s team on a certain level grasps Democrat’s vulnerability on working class white vote. This is why they came out against TPP free trade deal. Hillary is otherwise totally pro-free trade.


    November 30, 2015 at 12:46 PM

  11. Trump has had a solid 30% level of support for a while now to be at the top among Republican contenders.

    That means that for 70% of Republican voters, Trump is not their first choice.

    So the question is, if or when the Republican field shrinks, will that 70% go to Trump or the other remaining candidates?


    November 30, 2015 at 1:42 PM

    • Trump’s support is around 28%, not 30. Small numbers matter in a race this competitive. 28% is not that good when you consider that the establishment candidates consolidate at 32% of the vote.

      When they pair down the race to Trump versus just one guy Trump wins against everybody but Carson but it’s close. He crushes Jeb but only beats Marco by 3 or 4.

      Otis the Sweaty

      November 30, 2015 at 6:39 PM

      • After Trump wins in Iowa and New Hampshire, he will have unstoppable momentum. No one has ever won both Iowa and New Hampshire and then lost the nomination.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        November 30, 2015 at 6:44 PM

      • Trump now beats all the other top 3 candidates in one on one primary matches. His being near 30 is an excellent position to move forward with.

        The only threat to Trump in Iowa is Ted Cruz. But even if Cruz wins Iowa, he would likely lose to Trump in New Hampshire. After Trump takes NH, I suspect South Carolina and the other early primary states would then go for Trump over Cruz on account of his immigration position and Trump’s wider appeal across multiple Republican demographics.

        Of course should Trump win both Iowa and New Hampshire he’s got the nomination in the bag.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        November 30, 2015 at 8:27 PM

      • The final showdown appears to be Clinton vs Trump. The debate should bring in revenue for bars and other venues that provide entertainment with food and drinks. It will be better than the World Series or the Super Bowl.


        November 30, 2015 at 8:33 PM

      • Trump has NH in the bag but no way he wins Iowa. It will likewise be tough to win SC which is filled with stupid Christians who like Carson, Cruz and even Rubio.

        Otis the Sweaty

        November 30, 2015 at 9:51 PM

      • Trump has NH in the bag but no way he wins Iowa.

        Why? He’s been #1 in Iowa for some time. I can see Cruz upsetting Trump there if he can consolidate Evangelicals. But it’s no sure thing for Cruz who is right now the only one with a chance of taking Iowa from Trump. Rubio had a five point bump for a week after the last debate, that bump evaporated and I soon expect him to be fighting Fiorina and the other also-rans for fourth place.

        It will likewise be tough to win SC which is filled with stupid Christians who like Carson, Cruz and even Rubio.

        I don’t see it; immigration is playing even better in South Carolina where Trump is near 40%.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        December 1, 2015 at 6:21 PM

      • If the election were held today, the polls say he will win Iowa, plus Trump has the second-best ground organization in Iowa. The first-best belongs to Bush who isn’t going to win despite his high-priced ground operation.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        December 1, 2015 at 6:31 PM

      • I agree with Lion and still see Trump as the favorite to win Iowa, though he needs to watch Cruz.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        December 1, 2015 at 6:35 PM

      • Cruz is obviously going to win Iowa.

        You underestimate how stupid a lot of Christians are. Especially idiot Christians in all white states like Iowa where they don’t see how damaging immigration is. Cruz has the support of radio talk show host Steve Deace and will also have the support of a lot of establishment voters who vote for Cruz just to stop Trump.

        The fact that Cruz is already within 2 points in Iowa means it’s over. Trump will end up with ~30% there while Cruz will get at least 35%.

        Otis the Sweaty

        December 2, 2015 at 1:04 AM

      • Trump is nowhere near 40 in SC. He’s at 25, same as Iowa. And SC is also filled with stupid Christians.

        Otis the Sweaty

        December 2, 2015 at 1:06 AM

  12. journalists today almost entirely come from wealthy families, and they attended elite schools. They have no friends or relatives who are working class. They are cut off from what regular Americans think.

    And they’re always advocating how great STEM careers are (for other people) and more H-1B immigrants.

    E. Rekshun

    November 30, 2015 at 5:08 PM

  13. Pennsylvania isn’t a swing state for most Republicans. It’s close in elections but very steadily D. The reason is the well developed Black turnout machine and union politics. Both keep votes and turnout high in the most predictable groups.

    Trump could disrupt that, but only by sticking to his message that appeals to working class whites and blacks.

    The MSM emphasis on the Hispanic vote is mystifying. Hispanic voters gave near zero turnout in most swing states. The Mexican-American vote and opinion is totally unimportant to selecting a president. So why do MSM commentators constantly harp on it? Is it ignorance of how the Electoral College works? It’s too widespread to be a viable conspiracy.


    November 30, 2015 at 5:16 PM

    • Pennsylvania has been a loyal Democrat state only because the state’s historically Republican Philadelphia suburbs no longer vote Republican, or only give them slim margins that aren’t enough to win statewide. If Trump were to win white professionals there by 10 points or more, Pennsylvania would be a lean Republican.

      The Undiscovered Jew

      November 30, 2015 at 8:22 PM

      • Places like Bucks County are SWPL country now.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        November 30, 2015 at 9:08 PM

      • And places like Montgomery County, where I grew up, and from where all the now-Bucks County SWPLs white-fled, are much less white than they used to be.


        November 30, 2015 at 9:53 PM

      • Places like Bucks County are SWPL country now.

        Yes but they can be persuaded to vote Republican under certain conditions. It’s feasible Trump could win them over, and anyway Bucks, and similar former Republican counties, are due for a presidential swing to the Republicans which hasn’t happened since 1988.

        Btw, I was wrong about Reagan winning 65% of whites in 1984, he won around 66-67% of all whites. Since ’84 no Republican has won more than 61%.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        November 30, 2015 at 11:00 PM

      • The four Philadelphia collar counties are:

        1) Bucks County: SWPL crossed with Connecticut circa 1960
        2) Delaware County: Marginally less prole than Murray’s Fishtown
        3) Montgomery County: Used to be SWPL, but wrecked by Philadelphia expats
        4) Chester County: Country club Republicans; GOP in power since the party’s inception

        Delaware county is now a lost cause, generally. Montgomery county is internally a mess, politically, and this will hamstring any national Republican running for President (or U.S. senate).

        So Bucks and Chester are the key. But the problem is Trump is the *exact* type of Populist sort that makes these Republicans uncomfortable at the Christmas party.


        December 1, 2015 at 12:25 PM

      • Bucks County is a really nice place. SWPL but semi-rural.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        December 1, 2015 at 12:46 PM

      • Upper Bucks is SWPL but still semi-rural. Lower Bucks up to Warminster is prole white/white trash.


        December 1, 2015 at 1:29 PM

      • I’m only familiar with the pretty parts along the Delaware River.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        December 1, 2015 at 2:22 PM

      • So Bucks and Chester are the key. But the problem is Trump is the *exact* type of Populist sort that makes these Republicans uncomfortable at the Christmas party.

        Those wayward Republicans are still numerous enough to tip the state. Santorum in 2000, and in 2010 Pat Toomey and the GOP gubernatorial candidate won enough of those RINO voters to win statewide.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        December 1, 2015 at 6:25 PM

    • “Black turnout machine” = Democrat vote fraud machine.

      The MSM harp on the Hispanic vote because it fits the overall narrative of “GOP is too old, too white, demographically doomed”. Also the MSM knows that Hispanics are Democrats, and by talking up their importance the MSM hopes to motivate them to vote.


      November 30, 2015 at 8:51 PM

  14. I’m not familiar with the statistics of where Trump’s support is coming from age-wise. Is there a lot more support for Trump among Republicans under 30 or 35 than over 40? If so then there’s a greater chance that Trump’s support now will actually translate into votes once the primaries and caucuses begin. However, if there is not a big difference across the Republican generations than I’ll predict that voters are simply using Trump for entertainment value and to scare the Republican establishment. We learn in political research that the best predictor of how people will vote in the future is how they voted in the past. Nominating someone with no political experience and someone viewed as “extreme” by many is not what Republican voters generally do. In addition, Trump is a plutocrat and has no history of loyalty to the party. His nomination would be unprecedented. Republican voters generally reject pure “movement conservatives” like Tom Tancredo, Rick Santorum, and Michele Bachman, considering them too risky in the general election. It would make sense that if such voters were feeling adventurous they’d go with someone like Ted Cruz or Rand Paul before a real wild card like Trump.

    We’ll soon see!


    November 30, 2015 at 9:34 PM


    Here’s an extensive piece detailing Trump supporters’ ideological niche/demography. Contains a new (or old) acronym: MARS – Middle America Radicals (I know you and your readers eat that shit up!).

    Makes one wonder if Trump stumbled upon all of this or if it was a concerted plan proffered by consultants. That’s a rhetorical musing, of course, as it was almost certainly the latter (not that there is necessarily anything wrong with that).

    The journalist is a former TNR editor…nice to see that some of them found non-click bait homes.


    December 1, 2015 at 7:25 AM

    • That’s an impressive analysis. Magnitudes better than the bitter and frightened hit-pieces the New York Times and Washington Post have been running lately.


      December 1, 2015 at 11:05 AM

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