Lion of the Blogosphere

December of Trump

Today is the first day of December.

The establishment belief that Trump will magically lose support and give way to a “real” candidate is based heavily on the experience of the 2008 election cycle, where Giuliani led in the polls for many months, only to drop in December 2007. In January 2008, McCain was leading all of the polls and, of course, he went on to win the nomination.

I think that Giuliani lost his support in December in part because of the Kerik scandal; Kerik was Giuliani’s police commissioner, but Kerik was indicted by a grand jury for a whole bunch of crimes in November, 2007. And in part because people weren’t paying close attention until the November-December timeframe; they liked Giuliani because they remembered him as the hero of 9/11, but when they saw Giuliani in the debates, he just didn’t have that much to say.

The Trump story is a lot difference. First of all, no scandal can take down Trump. The establishment and the MSM has been trying to take him down for months and it hasn’t worked. Trump is immune. His secret is that he doesn’t apologize for anything or take back anything he said. (It may seem like a prole sort of behavior, but it apparently works very well for a politician.)

Secondly, unlike Giuliani whose support was only lukewarm, Trump’s supporters are enthusiastic. His campaign appearances fill up huge arenas. People have been paying close attention to the race since the summer; never have Republican primary debates had such huge television audiences. Unlike Giuliani who had tepid support from people who weren’t paying attention, Trump has very enthusiastic support from people who have been paying attention for many months. His supporters are not going to suddenly change their minds.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

December 1, 2015 at EST am

Posted in Politics

13 Responses

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  1. I agree that Trump has a better shot than Giuliani did, but I still think the odds are against him. The Republican Party Establishment must have all kinds of sneaky and underhanded tactics at their disposal to get the vote out for their preferred candidate.

    I do agree it’s glorious how Trump handles the scandals which are manufactured against him.

    fortaleza84

    December 1, 2015 at EST am

    • “The Republican Party Establishment must have all kinds of sneaky and underhanded tactics at their disposal to get the vote out for their preferred candidate.”

      The irony here is that they changed the primary rules so that more states would be winner-take-all and that someone who gets an early lead will be impossible to defeat. They assumed this would benefit their establishment candidate, but it’s going to backfire on them.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      December 1, 2015 at EST am

  2. Only among media/NYC are there similarities between Giuliani and Trump. To mainstream America the candidates have nothing in common. Giuliani’s true appeal never extended past the NY metro area. He was fundamentally a region candidate. Trump, on the other hand, has presented himself as the champion of mainstream America. As the only candidate running on a pro-American platform, it is not surprising that he has solid support.

    T

    December 1, 2015 at EST pm

    • Giuliani didn’t have a political ideology different than John McCain’s, except that Giuliani was on the record for being pro-choice, which didn’t help him among Republicans. I think that Giuliani would have been a much better president than John McCain. He was a much better mayor than he was a presidential candidate. He would have taken that executive competence into the White House.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      December 1, 2015 at EST pm

      • Since both of them were auditioning for the standard GOP role of Graceful Loser, the issue of who would have better performed the role neither of them ever intended to play (President) is moot.

        Tarl

        December 1, 2015 at EST pm

  3. The belief that Trump’s support will fade and go to a more realistic candidate is not based mainly on the 2008 election. It is based on many years of observing voters in each party. This doesn’t mean, of course, that the theory is fool-proof. Times do change and so do voting trends. But Lion’s memory is selective on this topic. As late as January 15, 2008 Lion wrote that Romney’s win in Michigan was “good news for Rudy” because “if McCain had won the primary, voters would have rallied around the ordained front-runner.” Also, there really is no way to measure how “enthusiastic” Giuliani supporters were compared to Trump supporters. The ability to fill up arenas doesn’t mean a person is electable – just that the person is entertaining/interesting.

    Political analysts seem reluctant to psychoanalyze why voters will either lie or fool themselves about which candidate they will vote for. I don’t see why. People delude themselves on a regular basis in all areas of life.. And no one has explained why Republican primary voters, supposedly in a radical mood and ready to shake things ups, wouldn’t support Ted Cruz. Cruz is the type of “ideological” candidate that they usually like but reject as nominee because he’s too risky in the general election. A Cruz nomination would be a bold move, but a Trump nomination would be throwing all caution to the wind. A Trump nomination might made sense only after we had a president like Cruz and he ended up being (as the base would see it) “a Rino.”

    Maryk

    December 1, 2015 at EST pm

    • Because the Republican primary voters who are backing Trump are not actually “ideological,” at least by current right/left standards. John Judis described this in detail in an excellent National Journal article that someone linked to on another thread. Cruz, as an ideologue, would have less resonance with those voters, and as the guy who led the government shutdown and got nothing for it he has the stench of “loser” about him. The Middle American Radical voters who are backing Trump want a man of action who gets results.

      Richard

      December 1, 2015 at EST pm

    • ” Also, there really is no way to measure how “enthusiastic” Giuliani supporters were compared to Trump supporters. The ability to fill up arenas doesn’t mean a person is electable – just that the person is entertaining/interesting.”

      There are two differences in that regard that I observe: First the electorate is far more engaged than during this period leading up to the 2008 elections. Just look at the ratings for the debates; unprecedented. Secondly, the Republican Party was already in a civil war before Trump announced, and he seemed to take advantage of the mile wide opportunity provided for him. I just don’t think the old rules apply anymore so it’s hard to draw conclusions based on it’s always been this way. This election will be different.

      Mike Street Station

      December 1, 2015 at EST pm

  4. Trump is the last chance for American’s to see through the WORLD OF LIES that the media/elites have created around them.

    If there ever is a revolution/restoration what we call the MSM must be utterly dismantled and destroyed; it is by FAR the most potent and dangerous weapon.

    fakeemail

    December 1, 2015 at EST pm

  5. “The establishment belief that Trump will magically lose support and give way to a “real” candidate is based heavily on the experience of the 2008 election cycle, ”

    Also 2012 (Gingrich), 2004 (Dean), 1996 (Forbes), 1992 (Buchanan), 1988 (Robertson), 1984 (Hart).

    The populist and more independent candidates are easily sabotaged by the establishment in the end.

    owentt

    December 1, 2015 at EST pm

    • None of whom were totally financially independent billionaires with a genius level ability to manipulate the mass media for his purposes.

      Andrew E.

      December 1, 2015 at EST pm

  6. Saw the headline on CNN in the lobby TV that said “Giuliani: Trump Judged By Different Standard”.

    And I thought, yes, the guy with big cojos, wolfish energy, and giant charisma is inevitably going to be judged differently from a guy (like Rudy and Jeb) who is a big pussy with the charisma of a bowl of cold peas… what else is new.

    Tarl

    December 1, 2015 at EST pm

  7. The real comparison to Trump isn’t Guiliani, it’s Dean in 2004.

    -Anti establishment candidate with unique message (Trump against immigrants, Dean against the war)
    -campaign driven by the grassroots/internet
    -polarizing figures who were unpopular with the general public
    -leading the polls over a divided field all the way up to the week before the primaries (hasn’t happened yet for Trump, but will)
    -Extremely enthusiastic supporters; big crowds

    A couple of key differences though

    -Dean’s campaign died in in the Iowa caucuses partly as the result of utter incompetence by his staff, Trump’s Iowa campaign is very professionally done
    -Dean’s anti war message was co-opted by all the other Dems, the only person who is even slightly co-opting Trump’s message is Cruz, the other candidates are incapable of doing so
    -The Democratic primaries involve a huge number of blacks who vote for whoever the establishment tells them to vote for, they were never going to vote for Dean so Dean was done if he didn’t win Iowa and NH
    -Iowa and NH at the time were both full of conservative/moderate white Dems, this was before the Democratic party completely lost its mind and became openly anti white, and Dean never appealed to them in the first place, he only appealed to white liberals. Trump can compete anywhere and indeed is winning everywhere except in midwestern states full of stupid Christians who are backing Carson.

    Otis the Sweaty

    December 1, 2015 at EST pm


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