December of Trump
Today is the first day of December.
The establishment belief that Trump will magically lose support and give way to a “real” candidate is based heavily on the experience of the 2008 election cycle, where Giuliani led in the polls for many months, only to drop in December 2007. In January 2008, McCain was leading all of the polls and, of course, he went on to win the nomination.
I think that Giuliani lost his support in December in part because of the Kerik scandal; Kerik was Giuliani’s police commissioner, but Kerik was indicted by a grand jury for a whole bunch of crimes in November, 2007. And in part because people weren’t paying close attention until the November-December timeframe; they liked Giuliani because they remembered him as the hero of 9/11, but when they saw Giuliani in the debates, he just didn’t have that much to say.
The Trump story is a lot difference. First of all, no scandal can take down Trump. The establishment and the MSM has been trying to take him down for months and it hasn’t worked. Trump is immune. His secret is that he doesn’t apologize for anything or take back anything he said. (It may seem like a prole sort of behavior, but it apparently works very well for a politician.)
Secondly, unlike Giuliani whose support was only lukewarm, Trump’s supporters are enthusiastic. His campaign appearances fill up huge arenas. People have been paying close attention to the race since the summer; never have Republican primary debates had such huge television audiences. Unlike Giuliani who had tepid support from people who weren’t paying attention, Trump has very enthusiastic support from people who have been paying attention for many months. His supporters are not going to suddenly change their minds.