Lion of the Blogosphere

Jeb Bush surges in the polls

No, I’m not making this up. Most recent 5 days of the Reuters tracking poll shows that Bush’s support has jumped to 10.7%, pulling ahead of Rubio and now tied with Ted Cruz.

This is a very interesting development, because political betting markets over the last month have assigned Rubio as the guy most likely to win the Republican nomination, but now he has fallen behind Bush.

This may mean that Rubio merely had a temporary surge, which is what Cruz is now experiencing (and possibly already fading away) and what Fiorina had a while back.

I was always mystified by Rubio’s sudden surge. If you wanted to vote for an establishment pro-amnesty guy from Florida, why not just vote for Bush?

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

December 3, 2015 at EST am

Posted in Politics

13 Responses

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  1. I guess the establishment is coalescing. If you look closely at the numbers, it looks like Kasich’s support has evaporated and moved entirely to Bush (with some of Rubio’s support caught in the stream’s tug). However, the actual establishment cluster hasn’t expanded at all. Before the Jeb surge they were at 19% (counting Jeb, Rubio and Kasich together). Now they’re still at 19% (well, 17.4% plus whatever Kasich has, which isn’t listed because it’s less than 1.9%).

    Rubio has a lot more appeal to me than Jeb, and that must be what the betting markets are banking on, but I suppose if you’re an establishment GOP guy then you really do go for the next guy in line, and that sure isn’t the Hispanic Face of the Future. Rubio required anti-establishment support to beat Christie in the 2010 GOP primary and they’re not who he can count on now.

    Meanwhile, the anti-establishment candidates (Trump, Carson, Cruz) have expanded from 54.2% of the electorate to 63.7% during the Jeb surge. Trump and Carson each went up 5 points while Cruz treaded water.


    December 3, 2015 at EST am

  2. OT: NYT, 12/02/15 – Dismay and Relief After Kean Graduate Is Accused in Threats Against Blacks

    UNION, N.J. — On the campus of Kean University here on Wednesday, students said that threats made against black students on Twitter during a rally in mid-November had dominated conversations in classrooms and around dorms, at basketball practice and on their social media feeds. Now, the talk was of a new revelation: that the police had charged a black Kean alumna, Kayla-Simone McKelvey, 24, who was known by many as an active presence on campus, with sending the Twitter messages…On Tuesday, she was served a summons charging her with a single count of creating a false public alarm in the third degree, a crime punishable with three to five years in prison…Ms McKelvey graduated from Kean with a bachelor’s degree in physical education…

    What does one do with a Bachelor’s degree from a toilet public university?

    E. Rekshun

    December 3, 2015 at EST am

  3. Carson was a stalking horse. People leaving Carson? People thinking a Bush will be tough on Arabs?


    December 3, 2015 at EST am

  4. That’s not surprising, as the joke candidates all drop out one by one. Jeb Bush isn’t going anywhere, because he has big money behind him. I realize that Rubio has a couple of billiionaires, but he was never remotely electable. Regardless of how loathed Bush is by people who write a lot on the internet, he is electable. So he will gradually suck in the support that is available as the other candidates drop out. I think it will come down to a showdown between him and Trump. And the establishment is behind Bush.


    December 3, 2015 at EST am

    • Jeb is not electable. You start with each side having 40%, so the battle is (a) over getting the 20% that are “independent,” or (b) ginning up your turn out. Here is what Jeb’s problems are:

      1. He’ll have trouble maintaining his “floor” at 40%. There is a faction in the GOP – and it may be only 10% or 15% of the base – that will not vote for Bush even if it means Clinton wins. Enough to keep him from winning the election.

      2. Bush’s people might say “well, then f**k them, we don’t want their votes anyway, we’ve got Hispanics!”. Yeah, right. Being married to a Mexican lady is not going to do Bush much good, when Hispanics are, on average less affluent than other voters and quite receptive to big government. Given a choice between “Lots of Free Stuff Paid For By Other People” and “Not Quite As Much Free Stuff,” who do you think poor people are going to vote for?

      3. Jeb’s wife. Unless they intend to keep her under wraps until after the election, she’s going to get some media attention, and it is said that she’s “uncomfortable” with her spoken English, and that furthermore she and Jeb speak to each other at home in Spanish. I can just see it now, they’ll be making fun of her on SNL, and it’ll be OK because she’s married to a Republican politician. Also, see point #1 above. Columba will further depress grassroots GOP turnout.

      4. Bush looks like he could have been cast as the Omega house president in Animal House, Greg Marmalard, and he’s got some of the same “look at me, I’m a grownup” demeanor. Be knowledgeable and authoritative are good qualities for a politician to have, being a know-it-all is not.

      Sgt. Joe Friday

      December 3, 2015 at EST pm

  5. Has he said something hateful and offensive that I missed?


    December 3, 2015 at EST am

  6. This may mean that Rubio merely had a temporary surge, which is what Cruz is now experiencing (and possibly already fading away) and what Fiorina had a while back.

    I recall numerous candidates surging to the lead in the 2012 primary only to be replaced by another surging candidate a few weeks later. This primary is different because the surges have all taken place well behind Trump. At no time has he fallen or other candidates even come close. This is in spite of all the “controversial” comments, media attacks and establishment attempts to undermine him. I believe this shows support for Trump is not only larger but more determined whereas support for other candidates is smaller, weaker and more fickle.

    If Trump maintains 35% of primary voters it’s going to be nearly impossible for so many other candidates to split the remainder and take the lead. He has as much support as the next three candidates combined. In fact, the supporters of the next four candidates would have to rally around a single candidate to surpass him.

    But I don’t see any of them dropping before Iowa. Certainly not Carson or Cruz who are second and third in Iowa. When Carson can’t even win Iowa, he’ll drop and his supporters will go to Cruz. That will be too late for Cruz because he can’t win New Hampshire, South Carolina or Florida even with Carson’s supporters. That will give Trump a four state sweep.

    Political betting markets have to be insane to favor Rubio. He’ll be lucky to get second place even in his home state of Florida. When neither he no Bush can take their home state of Florida they’ll be done. They may linger but they’ll be done. That’s when Cruz will pose a second threat to Trump as some of their supporters (and donors) drift to him as their last best hope against Trump.

    Interestingly, all the candidates from both parties have publicly endorsed amnesty except for Trump and Cruz. Of those, Trump is the only one who’s promised to deport them. For all of Cruz’s grandstanding on immigration, he’s refused to denounce a path to citizenship. Don’t trust Cruz.


    December 3, 2015 at EST pm

    • “If Trump maintains 35% of primary voters it’s going to be nearly impossible for so many other candidates to split the remainder and take the lead.”

      On top of that, polls show that Trump wins in all head-to-head matchups.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      December 3, 2015 at EST pm

      • No he doesn’t. He loses to idiot Carson. Big. The primary rules need to be changed to take the vote away from stupid Christians and to not allow black guys to run. A lot of republicans are morons who will automatically support a likable, non threatening black guy.

        It does seem like Cruz is the best bet to take down Trump but a lot of establishment Republicans seem to hate Cruz as much or more than they hate Trump.

        The fact is, it is going to be very hard to beat Rubio. He’s handsome, likable, well spoken and is extremely popular in the party, almost as popular as idiot Carson. Whereas Kasich, Jeb and Christie are toxic to the Republican base, Rubio is someone they could get behind. Trump is NOT going to win Iowa. No way. Iowa is loaded with stupid Christians who will vote for Cruz and I wouldn’t be surprised to see some establishment voters going for Cruz to help him beat Trump, since no establishment guy has a chance in Iowa anyway.

        In NH, the establishment candidates together poll 40%. Trump polls at 27. If the establishment consolidates behind Rubio before NH, then forget about it, Trump won’t win NH either.

        The stupid Christians could prevent Trump from pulling this thing off.

        Otis the Sweaty

        December 4, 2015 at EST am

  7. Bush has spent $29 million in ads, way beyond what anyone else has spent.

    “Donald Trump has spent less than 1 percent as much money as Jeb Bush on ads so far in the 2016 election, according to calculations made by NBC News, even as the real estate mogul continues to lap the former Florida governor in both key early state and national polls.

    Jeb and his aligned Right to Rise super PAC have dropped $28.9 million on TV ads to Trump’s $217,000 on a flight of radio ads. ”


    December 3, 2015 at EST pm

    • It has never been clear if ads really help that much. Normally, the guy with the most ads wins because the guy with the most ads also has the most money, and big donors only give money to people they think have a chance of winning because the reason they give money is to have access to in-office politicians.

      Bush has a huge stockpile of money because big donors falsely assumed he was going to win the nomination and they wanted to be remembered as the guy who was there from the beginning.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      December 3, 2015 at EST pm

  8. Reuters daily tracking jumps all over the place.

    Ben Carson is also surging in that poll over the last 5 days. Does that make any sense when every other poll has him dropping?

    If a Bush surge is real it should show up in polls that are being tracked on RealClearPolitics average of polls. He could be getting a little bump and second look but I doubt there is anything that significant going on with either his or Rubio’s numbers. Rubio is still ahead of Bush.


    December 3, 2015 at EST pm

  9. Jeb has the money and connections to weather low poll numbers while other candidates drop out.

    Trump’s success in the polls has partly been due to there being so many candidates running that split support among them. It’ll be interesting to see how Trump’s support holds up if or when more people start dropping out. If the establishment really wants Trump to lose, they would have to start pressuring people to drop out. I don’t know if Cruz will drop out though because he seems too narcissistic to drop out. I don’t know if Rubio will either since he doesn’t have much else going for him, is leaving the Senate, and has lots of debt.


    December 3, 2015 at EST pm

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