Lion of the Blogosphere

Why Trump will win in Iowa

There have been some suggestions in the Trump-hating media that Trump will do poorly in the Iowa caucuses because his supporters are more likely to be people who have never been to a caucus before.

However, I believe that the very opposite is true, that Trump will do better in the caucuses than polls show. The secret weapon for Trump is the huge turnout he gets at his campaign rallies in Iowa. As reported by Gateway Pundit (October 27th):

The polls may show support in Iowa slipping for Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, but Tuesday night in Sioux City Trump set the “gold standard” for presidential campaign rally attendance according to a local reporter with an enthusiastic crowd of 2,200 (updated to near capacity of 2,375). Attendance for other candidates in Sioux City has been in the low hundreds.

These campaign appearances are not just about giving a speech. They also have the goal of making sure everyone in the audience knows how to caucus, they are motivated to show up at the caucus, and they also get their friends and family who support Trump to show up at the caucus.

Remember that Trump’s Iowa campaign is being run by Chuck Laudner, the same guy who ran Santorum’s winning Iowa campaign in 2012. The people running his campaign in Iowa know what they are doing.

Having enthusiastic supporters show up at campaign events in numbers far exceeding all other candidates, combined with a top-notch ground game, and the result will be a Trump win in Iowa.

And or course, this is key to Trump winning the nomination. If Trump wins in both Iowa and New Hampshire, he becomes almost unstoppable. Trump-hating journalist Mark Mackowiak is correct when he says that the Republican establishment has a good chance of defeating Trump if Trump loses in both Iowa and New Hampshire. But that’s not going to happen.

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In response to a comment, Ted Cruz is not going to rally the evangelical Christian voters in Iowa. This election, it looks like the evangelicals will prioritize defeating Hillary Clinton (the CNN poll shows that 52% think Trump is most likely to win the general election) and national security and immigration above voting for the guy who they think is the most fierce anti-abortion warrior.

And Cruz isn’t that attractive to evangelical Christians because he’s mean. He lacks the nice-guy persona of Huckabee, Santorum and Carson. Cruz is an angry beta-male: like a Newt Gringrich who didn’t do well in Iowa in 2012. The evangelicals who don’t like Trump will vote for Carson.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

December 4, 2015 at 10:13 am

Posted in Politics

16 Responses

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  1. Lion: you have been railing for years against stupid Christians and now all of a sudden you don’t think they matter? Cruz has a lock on the stupid Christians that dominate Iowa. Establishment caucusers will start to drift to Cruz as a way to block Trump. Trump has no chance whatsoever in Iowa.

    We need to change the primary rules to take away the vote from religious Christians.

    Otis the Sweaty

    December 4, 2015 at 10:19 am

    • This election, it looks like they will prioritize defeating Hillary Clinton (the CNN poll shows that 52% think Trump is most likely to win the general election) and national security and immigration above voting for the guy who they think is most opposed to abortion.

      And Cruz isn’t that attractive to evangelical Christians. He’s mean. He lacks the nice-guy persona of Huckabee, Santorum and Carson. Cruz is an angry beta-male. Like a Newt Gringrich who didn’t do well in Iowa in 2012.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      December 4, 2015 at 10:23 am

      • You don’t understand how stupid Christians think. They care about abortion and Christian identity politics, nothing else. They are terminally stupid and they will always vote for the Christian nutjob with the best chance of winning.

        The people of Iowa don’t care about winning, the voted for Robertson, Huckabee and Santorum. And again, establishment voters will jump ship to Cruz to stop Trump. No way Trump wins in IA, NH is where the real battle lies.

        Otis the Sweaty

        December 4, 2015 at 10:32 am

      • Cruz isn’t beta if we judge by his wife.


        December 4, 2015 at 12:54 pm

      • So they think Cruz is mean but Trump isn’t? Or they think Trump is also mean, but that unlike Cruz he’ll do something about illegal immigration, so they overlook his meanness?

        Somewhat O.T.: Cruz is 1/4 Italian. Does this mean he’s a guido, a semi-guido, etc…. Or does he get exempted from the guido label because he’s “off the charts brilliant?”


        December 4, 2015 at 1:24 pm

      • Trump isn’t mean. He really wants to be liked. There’s a difference between being mean and being politically incorrect.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        December 4, 2015 at 1:46 pm

      • 1/4 IA = QuartoGweed!


        December 4, 2015 at 3:03 pm

  2. I tend to agree with Otis. Trump’s chances in Iowa are encouraging, but Republicans in that state have a laser focus on abortion, which leads me to believe Trump could be second in Iowa and first in New Hampshire. Another feasible result is Trump coming in second in both Iowa and New Hampshire, followed by a win in South Carolina.

    Still, Trump’s poll numbers at this stage are surprising. I tend to think not much will happen in the next few weeks. Christmas is its own beast and the holidays dominate everything.


    December 4, 2015 at 10:48 am

  3. I’ve been following presidential primaries since 1988.

    The hoopla over the Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire primary has become a tool for the establishments of both parties to control them.

    The way it works is this. These “first contests” (which in terms of delegates are not that big a deal) are taken as tests for outsider candidates to demonstrate that they can get actual votes. The establishment favorite is given a pass on the media by winning these. The establishment favorite is still declared viable after winning just one, or even neither in Bill Clinton’s case.

    The insurgent is declared dead unless he can win at least one of the two, and in Dean’s case just not being able to win Iowa, where the Democratic caucus rules allow the establishment supporters to gang up against the insurgent, was enough. Winning at least one is so important for the insurgent campaign -and asymmetrically important compared to the establishment candidate- that the insurgent is forced to dump tons of resources into these states, even if their voters are not really his target voters.

    Since the party establishments tightened their control over the parties in the 80s, winning just one of the two two has usually been enough for the establishment candidate (the big exception being Hillary Clinton) but not necessarily the insurgent.

    On the other hand, no one who has won both contests has been denied the nomination. If Trump wins both, the next opportunity to stop him cleanly (e.g. no behind the scenes threats or manufactured scandals) would be the convention. I just don’t see him winning in Iowa.


    December 4, 2015 at 12:00 pm

    • It wasn’t a conspiracy that brought down Dean in Iowa, it was the fact that Dean’s shallow support abandoned him at the end leaving him with nothing. But Dean was a total jerk and ran an incompetent campaign AND Kerry and Edwards co-opted his anti war message. Trump has a great campaign and nobody except Cruz is co-opting his anti immigrant message. Trump won’t win Iowa, but not because of an establishment conspiracy. He will lose because Iowa is filled with stupid Christians.

      Likewise, no conspiracy brought down Pat Buchanan, he just wasn’t very popular.

      That said, Trump has to win NH or he is done, and NH is a tall order where the establishment candidates consolidate 40 percent of the vote.

      Otis the Sweaty

      December 4, 2015 at 12:38 pm

      • What about the alleged “scream”?

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        December 4, 2015 at 12:44 pm

      • He was done before the scream. He came in 3rd in Iowa, a state he was supposed to win. It was pathetic.

        Otis the Sweaty

        December 4, 2015 at 1:07 pm

      • From a member of Dean’s campaign team:

        Given that he was the governor of a state with fewer residents than the population of San Francisco, I’d have to say that his campaign was a pretty amazing success. He got himself elevated to the chair of the DNC by a nominee who couldn’t stand him. That’s a lot of power for a relatively minor politician.

        Back in the very early days of the campaign, Joe Trippi sat a few of us down and outlined the campaign strategy. The #1 strategic outcome was that we needed to come out of Iowa in either 1st place or 2nd place. Our proximity to New Hampshire would then carry us over the finish line there, and we’d be able to carry that momentum into South Carolina and then on into Super Tuesday. Conversely, if we didn’t get 1st or 2nd in Iowa, we were done. And there was nothing we could do about it at that point, no matter how well anything else was going.

        About a month before the Iowa caucuses, it was clear from polling that we were going to get trounced in Iowa. There were a lot of reasons we were trailing there. But we knew we were going to get our ass kicked in Iowa. And we did.

        So in a very basic way, we lost that primary a few months before the scream even happened.

        I’ve often told people who ask me about the scream that a couple things happened there. First, the mic he was using was an isolating condenser mic. What you couldn’t hear from the footage was that the room was deafeningly loud, and Howard couldn’t hear himself. Second, at the point that the scream happened, Howard already knew for a few weeks that he was done. At that point, he was campaigning to discharge the remaining campaign expenses and to get into the DNC Chairman spot. And he succeeded at both of those.

        For what it’s worth, someone actually did a study of the scream and found that it was played on TV over 900 times. In response to the obvious hatchet job they did on Howard, a couple news networks issued apologies.

        Interesting that the polling showed Dean was done a month before the caucuses. That means that if Trump is leading IA in early Jan we could win there. If we win IA, it’s over. Trump will run the board.

        Otis the Sweaty

        December 4, 2015 at 1:15 pm

      • “If we win IA, it’s over. ”

        Agree, it’s impossible to see how he would lose NH a week later when he polls stronger in NH than in IA, and it’s impossible to see how he would lose the nomination after winning both IA and NH.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        December 4, 2015 at 1:46 pm

      • If immigration becomes a major primary issue then Cruz is toast. His record runs mostly counter to the position he’s now trying to take.

        Viscount Douchenozzlé

        December 4, 2015 at 4:57 pm

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