Why Trump will win in Iowa
There have been some suggestions in the Trump-hating media that Trump will do poorly in the Iowa caucuses because his supporters are more likely to be people who have never been to a caucus before.
However, I believe that the very opposite is true, that Trump will do better in the caucuses than polls show. The secret weapon for Trump is the huge turnout he gets at his campaign rallies in Iowa. As reported by Gateway Pundit (October 27th):
The polls may show support in Iowa slipping for Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, but Tuesday night in Sioux City Trump set the “gold standard” for presidential campaign rally attendance according to a local reporter with an enthusiastic crowd of 2,200 (updated to near capacity of 2,375). Attendance for other candidates in Sioux City has been in the low hundreds.
These campaign appearances are not just about giving a speech. They also have the goal of making sure everyone in the audience knows how to caucus, they are motivated to show up at the caucus, and they also get their friends and family who support Trump to show up at the caucus.
Remember that Trump’s Iowa campaign is being run by Chuck Laudner, the same guy who ran Santorum’s winning Iowa campaign in 2012. The people running his campaign in Iowa know what they are doing.
Having enthusiastic supporters show up at campaign events in numbers far exceeding all other candidates, combined with a top-notch ground game, and the result will be a Trump win in Iowa.
And or course, this is key to Trump winning the nomination. If Trump wins in both Iowa and New Hampshire, he becomes almost unstoppable. Trump-hating journalist Mark Mackowiak is correct when he says that the Republican establishment has a good chance of defeating Trump if Trump loses in both Iowa and New Hampshire. But that’s not going to happen.
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In response to a comment, Ted Cruz is not going to rally the evangelical Christian voters in Iowa. This election, it looks like the evangelicals will prioritize defeating Hillary Clinton (the CNN poll shows that 52% think Trump is most likely to win the general election) and national security and immigration above voting for the guy who they think is the most fierce anti-abortion warrior.
And Cruz isn’t that attractive to evangelical Christians because he’s mean. He lacks the nice-guy persona of Huckabee, Santorum and Carson. Cruz is an angry beta-male: like a Newt Gringrich who didn’t do well in Iowa in 2012. The evangelicals who don’t like Trump will vote for Carson.