New Iowa poll: bad news for Trump
New Monmouth University poll released today of likely Iowa caugusgoers.
Cruz 24%, Trump 19%, Rubio 17%, Carson 14%, Bush 6%.
Please pay attention to this note:
Methodological note: This poll marks a slight modification in Monmouth’s sampling methodology for the Iowa Republican caucuses. Prior sample frames included past state primary voters only. The current poll includes a small proportion (30%) of regular general election voters. The addition of these voters did not have a significant impact on the overall findings. For example, under the previous tighter sampling frame, Cruz’s support would be 25% compared to 24% in the full sample, Trump’s support would be 16% rather than 19%, and Carson’s 13% support would be unchanged. Rubio’s support using the prior frame would be slightly higher (21%) than in the current frame (17%). The current sample frame suggests a high-end turnout level of approximately 140,000 caucusgoers.
I still believe that Trump will have more turnout form his base than people expect, because his supporters are the most enthusiastic, and will go to the caucus even though they have not previously voted in a primary election.
Nevertheless, this poll is bad news for Trump. Trump supporters can only hope that the Cruz surge is a temporary one, like the Ben Carson surge before that.
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With Rubio at 17%, I think the establishment will try to go all-in on Rubio now, thinking he has a chance to win Iowa. Unless that rumor about him having a bunch of mistresses is true.
The same day, a CNN Poll shows a Yuuuuge lead for Donald Trump in Iowa. The difference is in the methodology, which is why I highlighted it.