Lion of the Blogosphere

New Iowa poll: bad news for Trump

New Monmouth University poll released today of likely Iowa caugusgoers.

Cruz 24%, Trump 19%, Rubio 17%, Carson 14%, Bush 6%.

Please pay attention to this note:

Methodological note: This poll marks a slight modification in Monmouth’s sampling methodology for the Iowa Republican caucuses. Prior sample frames included past state primary voters only. The current poll includes a small proportion (30%) of regular general election voters. The addition of these voters did not have a significant impact on the overall findings. For example, under the previous tighter sampling frame, Cruz’s support would be 25% compared to 24% in the full sample, Trump’s support would be 16% rather than 19%, and Carson’s 13% support would be unchanged. Rubio’s support using the prior frame would be slightly higher (21%) than in the current frame (17%). The current sample frame suggests a high-end turnout level of approximately 140,000 caucusgoers.

I still believe that Trump will have more turnout form his base than people expect, because his supporters are the most enthusiastic, and will go to the caucus even though they have not previously voted in a primary election.

Nevertheless, this poll is bad news for Trump. Trump supporters can only hope that the Cruz surge is a temporary one, like the Ben Carson surge before that.

* * *

With Rubio at 17%, I think the establishment will try to go all-in on Rubio now, thinking he has a chance to win Iowa. Unless that rumor about him having a bunch of mistresses is true.


The same day, a CNN Poll shows a Yuuuuge lead for Donald Trump in Iowa. The difference is in the methodology, which is why I highlighted it.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

December 7, 2015 at 3:05 pm

Posted in Politics

24 Responses

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  1. Cue all the Worry Wendy’s who see this as a real threat to Trump’s dominance. The last Monmouth poll had Carson up by 14% over Trump, now Cruz is in front by 5% and Trump is at half his national number. And Rubio the empty suit at 17%, noticeably higher than nationally. The poll is a joke. Relax people. Focus on the huge crowds and the noisy crowds, a much better indicator.

    Andrew E.

    December 7, 2015 at 3:31 pm

    • This makes me feel a little better.


      December 7, 2015 at 4:14 pm

    • Like the huge crowds that Bernie gets? Like the ones that Ron Paul (douchebag) got?

      The crowds mean nothing other that that Trumps supporters are enthusiastic. But an enthusiastic vote doesn’t count anymore than an unenthusiastic vote.

      Coming in 3rd in Iowa would be devastating. The reality is that Trump just does not play well in Iowa because most Iowans are stupid Christians.

      Otis the Sweaty

      December 7, 2015 at 4:30 pm

      • Ron Paul was too ideological and wierd. I wouldn’t compare him to Trump at all. Bernie is what everyone thought Trump would be, an interesting sideshow. Bernie’s huge crowds quickly flamed out since he’s a true nothing candidate (like Hillary except without the massive institutional backing). Trump’s crowds are as big and enthusiastic as ever and aren’t going anywhere.

        Andrew E.

        December 7, 2015 at 5:04 pm

    • All those enthusiastic crowds mean nothing if they don’t come out on the right day. I really don’t understand how the caucuses work. Doesn’t it mean that you have to declare your vote in public? I have the feeling that GOP-e will pack the caucuses with their guy and take it from Trump.


      December 7, 2015 at 4:52 pm

  2. This reflects my gut feeling on Trump’s chances: Maybe 2nd (or 3rd) in Iowa, with a win in NH and SC.


    December 7, 2015 at 3:47 pm

  3. The winner of the Iowa caucuses usually does not go on to win the nomination. I would be more worried about Trump’s chances if he WAS ahead in Iowa. As long as he is solidly in the top 3 there he will be fine. New Hampshire and South Carolina are far more important for him to win.


    December 7, 2015 at 3:49 pm

    • Sometimes Iowa picks the winner, most of the time Iowa picks the guy who will be a pain in the ass for the eventual winner. Trump would be better off if he didn’t have to deal with a pain in the ass, and instead he could focus on campaigning against Hillary.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      December 7, 2015 at 4:13 pm

      • As Scott Adams talks about on his blog, what will be Trump’s linguistic kill shoot against Cruz? Jeb was low energy, Rubio was sweaty, Carson was pathological disease and lair, and the most recent, Hillary has no strength or stamina. She was even played a clip of Trump saying that about her on a Sunday morning talk show and asked what her reaction to it was, lol.


        December 7, 2015 at 4:21 pm

    • “As Scott Adams talks about on his blog, what will be Trump’s linguistic kill shoot against Cruz? ”

      That he’s a sleazy liar who could barely run a used car dealership? Who wasn’t even born in the US?


      December 7, 2015 at 4:54 pm

  4. The Iowa caucus is a weird outlier that can be highly impacted by a tight ground game. This is how Obama won a lot of the caucus type events but lost many of the primaries to Hillary. They require ideological feet on the street (i.e. shipped in agitators). Obama (that is, the money behind him) was expert at shipping in phony caucus goers, or local university students who happened to be living in the state. Done right, this creates an in-person “wave” where others are socially pressured/shamed into going with the “winner” or the morally right choice, because in a caucus YOUR VOTE IS VISIBLE to everyone else. This is a very easy thing to do with status obsessed, morally preening white Democrat primary voters and Team Obama did it masterfully. After all, nobody wanted to be seen as “racist.”

    This poll means nothing. It will come down to who has the best ground game in Iowa, and on that subject I have no clue. Also, Republican primary voters are less likely to be swayed by social pressure as they are less conformist than Dems. And the Evangelicals can be a strong force there. Trump really needs to throw them a bone or two that’s not abortion related.


    December 7, 2015 at 4:03 pm

    • Once again, I remind readers that Trump’s Iowa campaign manager is the same guy who won for Rick Santorum four years ago. Trump has the best ground game in Iowa except maybe for Bush who will lose no matter how good his ground game is.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      December 7, 2015 at 4:15 pm

    • A clever anti-Trump candidate would appeal to older male SoCon voters’ hindbrain. A lot of dutiful men resent him for living it up while they plodded through their 30s-40s with their same-age “high school sweetheart.”


      December 7, 2015 at 4:30 pm

      • Disagree. Men tend to identify with and look up to, rather than desire to punish, other men with lives that they envy. Women, on the other hand, hate and attempt to sabotage the success of their own gender.


        December 7, 2015 at 4:53 pm

  5. Ugh, so disappointing. I want to try to like what Cruz has to say, but there is something about him that I just can’t stand more so than any other candidates, expect for maybe Kaisch. Well, the good news is that the 2008 and 2012 Republican winners of Iowa didn’t go on to win the nomination. Although, I just found the actual numbers Rick won by, “More than two weeks after the 2012 Iowa caucus, a final certified tally showed former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum finishing with 29,839 votes and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney with 29,805.” So Mitt wasn’t far off.


    December 7, 2015 at 4:13 pm

  6. together the establishment candidates have 31% in this poll versus 47% for the insurgents and 16% for the Christian idiots.

    In contrast, nationally the establishment candidates are worth ~27% and the Christian idiots worth ~17%.

    It appears that nationally there are more undecided voters and, based on what we are seeing in Iowa, that we can expect half of them to break for the establishment and half to go for the insurgents.

    It’s great to see Carson declining even in Iowa. I would like to see him in the single digits by Xmas. He’ll keep his 5% for as long as he stays in but the other 10 percent will almost entirely go to Cruz and Trump. That will put the insurgents at over 50% of the vote and probably get them about 55% of the delegates.

    Otis the Sweaty

    December 7, 2015 at 4:26 pm

    • @OtS – this is the reason for that packed field – to destroy Trump. Originally the plan was to elect Jeb w/little support so that he could pick up the winner take all states w/15%-25% of the vote. But now it’s to destroy Trump.


      December 7, 2015 at 5:04 pm

    • Why would anyone still be undecided at this late date? And why would half of undecideds go for an insurgent? I would think that going for an insurgent is something people would do early on. After all, part of the fun of voting for an insurgent is to stick it to the establishment. Why wait until the voting begins to do this? Supporting the insurgent early on means you get to see the establishment sweat it out.


      December 7, 2015 at 5:11 pm

  7. Trump is spending very little. Can he crack open his wallet a tad?


    December 7, 2015 at 4:27 pm

    • He doesn’t need to. Ads are a very inefficient way to reach voters. He has a list of people who attended his rallies that can be marketed to directly to ensure they turn out at the caucus.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      December 7, 2015 at 4:44 pm

      • He’s also got a terrific Twitter & Instagram ground game. If you have no message, these are useless. But he has a message. Also his FB account has 4.8M friends. Jeb: 300K. Cruz: 1.6M. Hillary: 1.8M.

        BTW, no one has been mentioning Bill Clinton at all. That’s strange.


        December 7, 2015 at 5:08 pm

  8. Well, The new CNN/ORC poll has him up 13% over Cruz in Iowa:
    “Overall, Trump has 33% support among likely GOP caucusgoers, followed by Cruz at 20% with Carson at 16%, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio at 11% and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 4%. The new poll shows Trump up 8 points, Cruz up 9, while Carson has faded by 7 points, compared with the last CNN/ORC poll, conducted in late October and early November.”


    December 7, 2015 at 4:57 pm

  9. Nothing says lying like a New Jersey University Poll of Iowans. I’m not sure I would trust a University poll from New Jersey to correctly track the popularity of New Jersey Governor Krispy Kreme Christy the RINO Republican who put the donut hole in the GOP filled by Motel Six Jebbie and the Boosh Putsch “we don’t need no steenkin voters” campaign. Especially since now most of these pot smoking hippies who deny the biological reality of race even though they can be identified on a DNA test unless you’re White and they want to steal your money, because these losers don’t generate enough cash with their fake Marxist Diploma Mills to pay for their drug problems and structural damages plus litigation that comes from the benefits of diversifying your campuses with Third World Criminals. Many of you who suffered through patronizing the deluded professors of Marxist scientism, who claimed they were Darwinists who believed in natural selection but wanted to send Trillions in Aid to Africa and Haiti, both majority black populations who prove conclusively that IQ is genetic by the fact that they both exist in the Stone Age here in the Space Age, we can still all I’m sure agree that most professors at these diploma mills have less sanity than fisherman who hooked Cthulhu unless they teach a field that involves serious math. Math is the language with which God wrote the Universe said the Great Greek Mathematician and Philosopher Pythagoras, but even if you’re not a believer in God I’m sure we can still agree that without Math the only thing you can truly measure is the limits of your patience. And yes I’m aware that polls involve statistics, but like they always say, there are lies, damned lies and then statistics.

    Joshua Sinistar

    December 7, 2015 at 10:54 pm

  10. To be fair, Monmouth is a retard college.


    December 8, 2015 at 7:40 pm

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