Lion of the Blogosphere

Brokered convention nonsense

The nonsense about a brokered convention is just the latest phase in Republican establishment denialism about Trump.

Originally, they insisted that Trump would magically disappear from contention before a single Iowa Caucus vote was cast.

Then, they believed that Trump might win in IA or NH but he would magically disappear soon after and an establishment candidate would win.

The brokered convention nonsense is just another phase of Trump denialism. Trump’s poll numbers are so strong they suggest that Trump will have an easy run of the primaries and quickly become the winner. So now, the Republican establishment has adopted the belief that magically his support will sink just enough so that he won’t be able to win enough primaries to get a majority of the delegates. And the media loves reporting this story because a brokered convention would be the most exciting thing ever for political journalists. (Reminder: there hasn’t been a brokered convention since 1952.)

Hopefully, by mid-February, they will finally accept the fact that Trump is going to be the nominee.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

December 11, 2015 at 10:25 am

Posted in Politics

26 Responses

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  1. A brokered convention is how the establishment plans to steal the nomination if they can’t win it (or steal it) at the ballot box.


    December 11, 2015 at 10:35 am

  2. Lion, I’m surprised that you aren’t more reluctant to confidently insist that Trump will be the nominee when……..we are weeks away from even the first state’s primary/caucus. Given what happened in 2007-2008 why are we so sure that voters mean what they say? Yes, I know that there are differences between Trump and Giuliani. I also think that Trump has a better chance than Rudy did. But considering how badly Rudy flamed out, this isn’t saying much. Why are other candidates denouncing Trump instead of seconding his controversial views, if those views have now proved to be so popular? Don’t most candidates go where the votes are? More and more we’re starting to hear about Trump the exact statements we once heard about Rudy – i.e. “he’s the guy people want to have a beer with, people are angry and want someone who’s going to shake things up, our foreign enemies know he’s tough and won’t mess with us.”

    As for the “he’s the guy you’d want to have a beer with” idea, I don’t drink. But if I did, the person I’d want to have a beer with is the person who knows the most about beer. Seems logical to me!


    December 11, 2015 at 11:18 am

    • Rudy was ultimately too New Yorky and ethnic for much of America. Trump, while New Yorky, is a very generic looking American. Also, the press still had control over presenting Rudy to the public. Trump’s biggest winning stroke is how he hasn’t let the press define him, largely by every time they say “Trump is Evil Thing A!” Trump responds by saying “yeah, I’m A + 1.” He agrees and amplifies. The press still has no idea how to ruin him since all their old tricks are flaming out.

      I can only imagine how desperately they are trying to uncover a Trump “scandal.”


      December 11, 2015 at 11:44 am

      • If they ever came out that he was screwing candidates at his Miss USA pageant, he could win by saying I only regret not screwing more of ’em.

        Thin-Skinned Masta-Beta

        December 11, 2015 at 1:06 pm

    • For one thing, their donors won’t allow them to. Remember when Scott Walker voiced support for ending birthright citizenship? He was immediately forced to retreat when one of his biggest funders called up and threatened to withdraw support unless Walker backed down. Trump is the only guy in the race with both the money and the charisma to go on his own hook.


      December 11, 2015 at 11:50 am

    • ‘As for the “he’s the guy you’d want to have a beer with” idea, I don’t drink. But if I did, the person I’d want to have a beer with is the person who knows the most about beer. Seems logical to me!’

      This is completly illogical. Lol! Hilarious! This isn’t how guys drink. You don’t have a beer to talk about it. You talk about Sumo or a wall on the Mexican border and in passing you may coment to on the beer, maybe.


      December 11, 2015 at 11:56 am

      • Yakov, you are completely right . Note to self: think before you write! I guess for me a person with knowledge about beer is valuable because I know so little about it! But who does a woman invite over for cake and coffee and “girl talk?” Not the female friend who knows the most about cake, but the one who she likes best. When would she care if her house guest is knowledgeable about cakes? Only if she wants advice about BAKING a cake or about which cake is best.

        Also, you’re one of the few people who can call me “completely illogical” and accuse me of making a “hilarious” error – and not offend me! You are my favorite commenter here. If you ever start your own blog, my Internet priorities are Yakov first, Lion second!


        December 11, 2015 at 1:44 pm

    • The others aren’t seconding Trump’s views because they are establishment and agree with the pro muslim, pro immigrant Beltway consensus.

      Also, Cruz and Paul have sort of copied Trump’s views, they’ve just toned them down a little.

      Rudy isn’t a valid comparison because he did not compete in the first 3 states and his supporters had a natural home in McCain. Trump is leading the first three states and his voters have nowhere to go.

      It really comes down to whether or not we can turn out our people in IA. If we can, we’ve got this. If we don’t, we’re in trouble.

      Otis the Sweaty

      December 11, 2015 at 12:14 pm

    • “Why are other candidates denouncing Trump instead of seconding his controversial views, if those views have now proved to be so popular? ”

      Trumps views just happen to be absolute red lines for the donors, and therefore the party. Any candidate could have come out opposing amnesty for example, that’s where the Republican primary voters have been for more than one election cycle, but the only one who could do it and have money to stay in the race is the only self funder.

      Mike Street Station

      December 11, 2015 at 4:08 pm

  3. Stupid Christian Franklin Graham, perhaps the most influential Christian leader in the US agrees with Trump’s Muslim entry ban. Rudy, smart secular no non-sense, tough on security Guiliani is against Trump’s proposal.

    Andrew E.

    December 11, 2015 at 11:41 am

    • You’re being sardonic, right?

      Trump’s proposal IS the smart, no-nonsense, tough proposal.

      Those who oppose it… are not that.


      December 11, 2015 at 1:54 pm

      • Yes, sardonic.

        Trump’s proposal is really brilliant (because, face it, Trump just might be brilliant himself. not some buffoon). It’s smoked out all the fakes.

        The “sensible” thing would have been Rand Paul’s proposed ban on immigration from 37 muslim nations. But where’s the fun in that? That wouldn’t have given us all the splodey heads from the liberal world. The media firestorm that Trump draws his strength from (like Superman from the sun) would not have happened. And would have left us wondering where people like Cruz and Guiliani REALLY stood.

        Andrew E.

        December 11, 2015 at 2:47 pm

    • “The “sensible” thing would have been Rand Paul’s proposed ban on immigration from 37 muslim nations. But where’s the fun in that? ”

      That may be where we end up, Art of the Deal says to make a bombastic opening offer. In politics, that means anything even faintly resembling Trump’s proposal is a major victory.

      Mike Street Station

      December 11, 2015 at 4:13 pm

  4. These guys are walking cliches. The five stages of grief? They’re literally in the bargaining phase with this fantasy of a brokered convention, having already passed through denial and anger. I guess depression should set in by Super Tuesday.


    December 11, 2015 at 11:44 am

    • Ha! I like this and I’m going to steal it from you.


      December 11, 2015 at 5:25 pm

  5. If all the candidates except Rubio or Cruz, dropped out so it was Trump vs one establishment candidate, then Trump might lose.

    Turn out is everything in a primary and even more important in a caucus. It is possible that Trump will motivated Republicans to vote in the primary election which would otherwise not bother voting. So it is possible that he could even win a two person race in enough states to win the nomination.

    As I recall, most Republican primaries are winner take all, which means Trump could sweep up most of the delegates with 30-35% of votes in most states.

    According to studies most primary voters do not really make up their mind until the last week before the primary in their state. At this point Republicans could be telling pollsters Trump just because they are angry and have not really focused on the election yet. Trump is getting all the air time on TV and he reflects their anger so they say Trump when asked. As the primary gets closer, they will focus more on the election and Trump’s support may fade.

    Who knows. Trump could sweep the early primaries and lock up the nomination no matter what kind of tricks they plan or he could just fade away and not win hardly and delegates. Time will tell.


    December 11, 2015 at 11:49 am

    • Trump versus the swarm keeps the insects in the game.

      If it is Trump versus one insect, he steps on it, and that’s that.


      December 11, 2015 at 1:55 pm

  6. The 1976 R convention was almost brokered, with neither Reagan nor Ford having a majority of delegates. However, Ford still outperformed in the general, nearly upsetting Carter despite having huge disadvantages. As long as there isn’t rioting (which Rs never do), the extra publicity won’t hurt, regardless of the outcome.


    December 11, 2015 at 12:12 pm

  7. About 40 percent of Republican delegates are being awarded in winner-take-all state primaries/caucases. I could see Trump winning almost all of these delegates.

    Of the remaining 60 percent of delegates, many are awarded in states in which a candidate needs a threshold percentage (typically 10-20 percent) to receive delegates. So if Trump can get 30% of these delegates, he’ll be in a good position nationally.

    Fire Dog

    December 11, 2015 at 12:16 pm

    • I wouldn’t be surprised if Trump gets more than 50% of the votes in primaries after he demonstrates that he’s the winning candidate in earlier primaries. People jump on a bandwagon. And two-thirds of Republicans agree with his views on immigration. I think many voters are claiming support for someone else because they heard on the news that Trump can’t win.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      December 11, 2015 at 12:31 pm

  8. Assume Trump gets 3/4ths of the 40% delegates awarded in the winner-take-all primaries.
    Also assume gets about a third of the 60% of delegates in the proportionally awarded primaries.

    That’s about half of the delegates.

    Fire Dog

    December 11, 2015 at 12:19 pm

  9. I’m more worried that Trump won’t understand that he’ll have to put up with all of the GOP’s obstructing, attacking, undermining activity and still accept their nomination–that he’ll go third party independent, and a major opportunity will be lost.


    December 11, 2015 at 12:51 pm

    • To this point in his campaign Trump has been demonstrating an understanding far superior to those of his opponents, his critics, and his enemies.

      I’d have no interest in having a beer with him–or even in talking to him except to express my thanks for the important service he’s rendering our country.


      December 11, 2015 at 3:52 pm

      • I’d like to have a beer with Romney and talk about venture capital. That would be pretty exciting. Unfortunately, Romney doesn’t drink beer.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        December 11, 2015 at 3:57 pm

  10. The problem they have with Trump is not his opinions or stances on issues, but that he’s a Billionaire and has enough Fuck You money to not need the donors at all. That means they can’t control him the way they can the others who need the Benjamins to be competitive. All dese nutz who say Trump is too uninformed or not classy enough to be President are full of it and can KISS MY ASS. Not as well informed as George W. Bush? Yeah, sure sport, take that lead balloon and try to get that to fly. And classy? Classy like who? Boring Milquetoast Mitt who was the favorite to represent America in the Annual Upper Class Twit of the Year? I suppose you’re going to say next that Granny Hillbilly Hillary is classy huh? Yeah, because you know a Billionaire with a famous TV show and owns the Ritz Carlton is going to look bad against Hillary right?

    Joshua Sinistar

    December 11, 2015 at 10:05 pm

  11. This will be very interesting to watch.

    The establishment silently vacating Trump. Somehow throwing him under the bus. Getting the media to say he was a flash in the pan or something. Never real.

    Directly throwing him under the bus – convention upheaval. Romney is forced in! A dramatic sweep.

    Vaguely co-opting him – we are all against illegal immigration and always have been – let us see Rubio (or whoever) explain this too you. Calm down guys!

    Resurgence of the old coalition – Evangelicals and Chamber of Commerce come out swinging. Not on our watch! We know what’s good for you, you ignorant buffoons!

    Regardless, this is very close to a sea change now. There is a whole generation of hacks that are about to fade out. Or the Republican party itself will. Fine by me either way. The unbroken chain of conservatism can not hold.


    December 12, 2015 at 12:03 am

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