Lion of the Blogosphere

Polls underestimate Trump

We’ve previously discussed that Trump does better on online and automated polls than he does on live telephone polls.

This article at The Atlantic convincingly explains why the internet polls are probably more accurate.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

December 11, 2015 at 12:06 am

Posted in Politics

17 Responses

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  1. Who could be a nice cocoa colored running mate for the Trump to immunize him from accusations of racism?

    Not Condi. Not Colin. Not Carson.?

    Thin-Skinned Masta-Beta

    December 11, 2015 at 1:24 am

    • Susanna Martinez.

      The Atlantic article suggests that far right candidates tend to perform in between live polls and online polls. Trump is currently at ~30% in live polls and ~37% in online polls. So that puts him at 34%, at best.

      I’m sorry, but 34% will not cut it. He needs a minimum of 45% to win the nomination. He can’t win 45% with Cruz and Carson taking away so much of his support.

      Basically we need a terrorist attack between now and the primaries or no Trump nomination. He could, however, run as a 3rd party and humiliate the GOP by winning more of the vote than they do.

      Otis the Sweaty

      December 11, 2015 at 9:04 am

      • I agree on Susanna Martinez. Has she made any anti-trump statements?

        idaho4trump

        December 11, 2015 at 10:47 am

      • Not yet but give her time. They are all anti Trump. The question is can they be bought off with an establishment VP? Especially a Latina establishment VP.

        Otis the Sweaty

        December 11, 2015 at 12:42 pm

  2. Most people in my SWPL circle think Trump sucks, and denigrate him. I don’t think more than a couple people know I might be a conservative. I certainly don’t post annoying things on facebook.

    But on election day I’m voting Trump.

    jjbees

    December 11, 2015 at 5:10 am

    • I had lunch with a dear friend who I guess would classify as a cuckservative, except he can’t vote in the US. Plenty of unprompted moaning about the evil stupidity of Trump even so. I slow played it (“well, Hillary will probably win it then”) and smiled cryptically from time to time.

      Glengarry

      December 11, 2015 at 11:40 am

    • I don’t think more than a couple people know I might be a conservative.

      You don’t have to be a true conservative to support Trump. Many White male conservative types (George Will nerds, libertarians, open borders capitalists, churchy dorks) hate him and his agenda.

      I would say Trump is a liberal/populist nationalist.

      That type is just not highlighted in the national debate.

      Rifleman

      December 11, 2015 at 11:49 am

      • Yeah the economic nationalist position that Trump occupies (by himself apparently) straddles left and right; protect US jobs by limiting immigration and reining in trade deals. His appeal is more class than party. If you are working class, no matter what your registration is, you’re likely to lean Trump.

        Mike Street Station

        December 11, 2015 at 2:46 pm

  3. Great news! Christie beating Rubio in NH! http://www.wbur.org/2015/12/11/donald-trump-new-hampshire-support-climbs

    Why is this great? Because Rubio is the only viable establishment counter to Trump. Christie is toxic in any state outside of NH, but an NH win makes him the establishment frontman and at the very least prevent establishment consolidation.

    Otis the Sweaty

    December 11, 2015 at 9:41 am

    • Ideal for Trump is Cruz comes in second in Iowa, Christie comes in second in New Hampshire, the opposition to him is totally split. Trump ties up the nomination by March 15th.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      December 11, 2015 at 9:44 am

    • Are you suggesting that the establishment would even consider getting behind Cruz before the convention? I strongly doubt that.

      Cruz’s voters are coming from Carson and Trump, not the establishment candidates.

      We def want Christie to come in a strong second in NH and Rubio to place no better than 3rd in IA. In fact, do we maybe even want Christie to win NH outright? Then it unquestionably becomes a Trump v Christie race and fat boy is much easier to beat head to head than Rubio is. The establishment already consolidates at ~41% in NH so if we have to eat a loss, NH is where we want to do it.

      Then again, if the stupid Christians cost us IA then we need a win in NH. Also winning those first two states might be just what the doctor ordered to get Trump’s numbers to the 45% area where we need them.

      Otis the Sweaty

      December 11, 2015 at 10:10 am

      • Trump is more likely to win in IA than you think. And winning in IA will boost him in NH because voters like a winner. Winning in IA + NH, then Trump will win in EVERY state after that. There will NOT be a brokered convention.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        December 11, 2015 at 10:17 am

      • Lion, you do realize that the GOPe controls every state party and if it looks like Trump is going to sweep the board then all the winner take all states will change their rules, right? Also the states with thresholds for delegates will eliminate said thresholds. This means that if Trump can’t win at least 45% of the primary votes then he will not be the nominee.

        Otis the Sweaty

        December 11, 2015 at 10:36 am

      • Then again, if the stupid Christians cost us IA then we need a win in NH.

        No big deal, Iowa is an outlier. If a liberal/nationalist guy with a libertine private life like Trump can with Iowa it would be YUGE!

        As a right wing Jew don’t you like the “stupid Christians'” support for Israel? You might not like their “end of days” junk but they are more pro Israel than almost anybody. Certainly more so than many Jews.

        Rifleman

        December 11, 2015 at 11:54 am

      • “Lion, you do realize that the GOPe controls every state party and if it looks like Trump is going to sweep the board then all the winner take all states will change their rules, right? Also the states with thresholds for delegates will eliminate said thresholds. This means that if Trump can’t win at least 45% of the primary votes then he will not be the nominee.”

        I worry about that too. My brother participated in state level GOP politics at one time as a Ron Paul guy and left in disgust after he saw the shenanigans that were pulled to deprive Paul of delegates. And Paul was never any real threat to the party. I suspect that the party might go full tammany hall to prevent any Trump delegate wins, regardless of the vote totals.

        Mike Street Station

        December 11, 2015 at 2:52 pm


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