Lion of the Blogosphere

Des Moines Register Poll

Live-interview polls like the Des Moines Register poll undercount Trump’s true support because people are unwilling to tell the live interviewer they plan to vote for Trump because it’s considered politically incorrect to support Trump. Perhaps they are afraid of being unfriended on Facebook.

Nevertheless, Cruz’s surge is troubling for Trump; I hope that the Cruz surge if temporary.

Link to poll results. Note that even though Trump is behind in this poll, Trump’s support is actually higher than it was in the previous Des Moines Register Poll. Last poll he was behind Carson, and now he’s behind Cruz.

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Also, Trump needs to come up with a better response to Cruz than saying that he’s not a true evangelical Christian because he’s Cuban. It’s true that Cruz was born Catholic, but his father became born again when Cruz was five, so Cruz doesn’t remember being Catholic. Cruz is heavily into the God stuff. The evangelical people who are heavily into their religion know that Cruz is more evangelical then Trump. Trump has to convince them they are better off with Trump because only Trump can defeat Hillary and only Trump can protect their jobs from immigrants and keep them safe from ISIS.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

December 12, 2015 at 5:47 pm

Posted in Politics

15 Responses

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  1. Trump all but said in his Iowa townhall yesterday that the Des Moines Register, who is famously anti-Trump, deliberately skews their polls against him. I agree.

    Andrew E.

    December 12, 2015 at 6:02 pm

  2. Apparently Cruz’s ascent represents the “largest and fastest rise in the history of Iowa caucus polling.”

    Phew! Just in time to stop Trump the proto-Hitler.

    If Trump needs to he can always direct Iowans to Cruz’s father’s sermon from a couple years ago where he said Ted Cruz was to be among the evangelicals anointed to rule as kings. That’s right. I don’t think even Otis’s stupid Christians will fall for that one.

    Andrew E.

    December 12, 2015 at 6:53 pm

  3. I agree that Trump’s response to Cruz is flawed. But Cruz is surging because he’s taking Carson’s supporters not because he’s taking Trump’s. Trump has actually inched up as well. That’s a good sign showing that Trump’s support is still strong.

    It would be nice to win Iowa but half of Iowa’s winners go on to lose the nomination. Huckabee and Santorum both did. I think that will happen this time, too. Regardless of what happens in Iowa, Trump still has a huge lead everywhere else. So, unless something big happens, he’ll still be the nominee.


    December 12, 2015 at 7:15 pm

  4. cruz wife works for goldman sachs – he’s a complete poser. bought and paid for already.


    December 12, 2015 at 7:15 pm

  5. and the results are out. Stupid Christians are continuing to destroy America. Cruz at 31% and it will go higher as Carson continues to fade.

    Could Trump come back in IA? No chance. This isn’t a Howard Dean lead that Cruz has, it is 31% and is sure to grow over the next month and a half. He will be at a minimum of 35% by caucus time.

    NH is tough too with all of its mavericky d-bags. Trump’s only chance of winning there is the establishment not consolidating in time for the primary.

    SC should be a lock but it won’t be after 2 high profile losses.

    Otis the Sweaty

    December 12, 2015 at 8:24 pm

    • NH is tough too with all of its mavericky d-bags. Trump’s only chance of winning there is the establishment not consolidating in time for the primary.

      Trump is 14-16% points up over any possible 2nd place person in NH, whether Rubio, Cruz or Christie.

      Trump should be expected to place 2nd in Iowa, a state that picks the likes of Huckabee or Santorum.

      If Trump wins Iowa great but no big deal if he doesn’t. He’s going to win NH and crush SC and Nevada.


      December 13, 2015 at 6:29 am

    • he isn’t winning NH if the establishment rallies around a lone figure in time. The establishment consolidates at over 40% in NH.

      Otis the Sweaty

      December 13, 2015 at 9:39 am

  6. Iowa just votes for the Evangelical guy. Trump should play up that fact. Iowa was always going to a Carson or Cruz kind of person. Trump can still win but he will have to work for it. I think Trump spends more time campaigning in New Hampshire and South Carolina because of the Evangelical factor.

    What goes through the brain of someone like Cruz to think he has a chance? Does he honestly think he can win the general election? Or is his ego so big that reality no longer exists? Cruz has to know that Hillary or Bernie would destroy him by simply promising free stuff.


    December 12, 2015 at 8:33 pm

  7. Haven’t you written reams and reams of posts about how people shape their preferences and ideals to whatever gets them status. Now all of a sudden you’re talking about people having true preferences that are totally at odds with what they think other people value.

    Lloyd Llewellyn

    December 12, 2015 at 9:10 pm

  8. I wonder about something. if Trump loses the nomination, will we hear the same line once said about Giuliani – that he lost it because he didn’t want it badly enough? Since Trump is devoting his own money to what should have seemed like a quixotic campaign I’ll guess that people will instead say that he realized his statements were dividing the party and he didn’t want to cause defeat in November. He may bow out fairly early and throw his support behind the nominee right away. He could say that he raised serious issues and gave the whole country a lot to think about so his campaign was ultimately successful in it’s own right.


    December 13, 2015 at 12:00 am

  9. Trump should hit Cruz hard with the Cuban thing if he does become a serious threat. People don’t like Cubans.They’re oily and power hungry, just like Cruz.


    December 13, 2015 at 1:11 am

  10. Well I can’t wait for Cruz to have more media exposure now that he is the official GOP Anti-Trump. Maybe they can interview his wife and feature her bosses at Goldman-Sachs? Maybe they can have a segment where she tells everyone about her unbridled support for free trade and how good it will be when her husband is President and he quadruples the H1-B program so even more Americans can train their replacements?
    Is Cruz a RINO or just the typical Dead Elephant? Who cares? Karl The Crapweasel Rove has a “brilliant” plan where the GOP can remain relevant without having any voters. Maybe the guy who played Baldric in Blackadder can play Rover in the Greek Tragedy Movie.

    Joshua Sinistar

    December 13, 2015 at 2:13 am

  11. Here’s a Reuter’s/Ipsos poller who with 11 colleagues made a bunch of calls in Iowa to try and confirm the Des Moines Register poll. They’re results: Trump 37% Cruz 18.8% Carson 13% Rubio 9.2

    Andrew E.

    December 13, 2015 at 11:04 am

  12. By the way, is this just me? I’ve in the last few weeks seen various comments and articles on Trump becoming president which, while not saying it out loud, now entirely discount Hillary Clinton. It’s like Trump must be stopped before becoming the R candidate or all is lost. Are the journalists seeing that grandma has to sit down when the rallies get long?


    December 13, 2015 at 2:27 pm

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