Lion of the Blogosphere

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Rubio in first, Trump in second, this hasn’t changed since the last time I looked.

Ted Cruz, in third place, has moved closer to Trump.

Chris Christie and Mitt Romney have both moved ahead of Carson.

What? Mitt Romney? That’s right, Mitt Romney is now considered more likely to win the nomination than Ben Carson, Carly Fiornia, Rand Paul, or John Kasich.

If I lived in the UK, I would bet money on Trump.

* * *

So how does Romney become the nominee? I guess the theory here is that there’s a brokered convention (unlikely), and the brokers convince everyone to throw their support to Romney in order to prevent Trump from being nominated. In order to get Cruz to buy into that, they’d have to offer him VP.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

December 16, 2015 at 2:02 pm

Posted in Politics

28 Responses

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  1. Rubio in first? They just can’t accept The Trumpening.

    I don’t doubt the RNC has already approached Romney about this very thing if when the voting starts Trump walks away with the primary wins. So yeah, I don think Romney is more likely than half the debate stage.

    Mike Street Station

    December 16, 2015 at 2:39 pm

    • Rubio was knocked out of contention last night over gang of eight. Cruz is the only plausible alternative to Trump and that alternative is becoming less likely by the minute.

      The Undiscovered Jew

      December 16, 2015 at 9:54 pm

      • I hope you are right. I love seeing Adelson squirm.


        December 17, 2015 at 5:57 am

  2. That is exactly what will happen. There is no way Trump will ever get this nomination. The military-industrial complex just won’t put up with it.


    December 16, 2015 at 3:08 pm

    • What’s the saying? When an idea’s time has come, there’s no army in the world that can stop it.

      Andrew E.

      December 16, 2015 at 5:32 pm

      • LOL. We’ll see about that.


        December 16, 2015 at 7:26 pm

  3. Again, I don’t think Mitt Romney wants to get anywhere near Trump’s line of fire. Losing a presidential election does a number on one’s self-confidence, and Trump would know how to give Mitt Romney insecurities and self-doubts he never even knew existed.


    December 16, 2015 at 3:20 pm

  4. Hey Lion,

    If you don’t mind me asking, how do you support yourself now that you’re unemployed? Do you plan to work again or are you effectively retired?


    December 16, 2015 at 4:31 pm

    • I don’t know.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      December 16, 2015 at 4:42 pm

    • Lion, you are so lucky! I wish I could get fired! I went to resign today to start my own business on the 1st of January and my boss isn’t letting me leave. I can’t stand it! At the end he told me to name my own price and come back. I want to leave no matter what, but I can’t be a pig if he needs me so much. I wish I could just run away to Texas or Arizona and start a business there, but I can’t leave the family. This is so crazy. He is throwing insane amounts of money at me, but all I want is to be free and have fun. I would much rather earn less and be independent. I really don’t know what to do. It’s really messed up. All I want to do is a perfect job on my own and have time to go to museums, learn perfect Spanish, read and study. I just feel sorry for this poor guy with tons of kids who needs me, but I don’t need to mess up my life for him.


      December 16, 2015 at 7:19 pm

  5. I think that Rubio’s billionaire backers are dropping a few quid on the betting markets in his favor. Its probably a moneyball tactic. A million spent on making your candidate look good in the betting markets might go further than a million spent on TV ads.


    December 16, 2015 at 4:38 pm

    • That is a very interesting observation. So his billionaire backers are putting money on him to shorten his price so that credulous voters will think he has more grassroots support than he does in fact have, and then they will vote for him since that seems to be what everyone else is planning to do.

      This means that Rubio’s price should be longer than it in fact is. He is an artificial favourite, and therefore one ought to lay him. Or else back his main rivals.


      December 16, 2015 at 5:44 pm

      • These betting markets are too thinly traded. A guy with a big wad of money can easily manipulate them.


        December 17, 2015 at 3:11 am

      • Interesting theory but it’s not about voters who have no clue about the oddsmakers. Still, it could influence people in the media and financial backers. Even that’s a stretch. The CW is that Republican voters show early support for anti-establishment candidates like Pat Buchanan, Rick Santorum and Tom Tancredo and tough-talking New Yorkers like Guiliani, but don’t actually vote for them. Rubio is the only establishment approved candidate still standing, so it stands to reason that he has the best individual odds.

        Even so it’s impressive that at 40% Rubio, 30% Trump, 25% Cruz, the oddsmakers are predicting the establishment will probably lose.

        If I lived in a country with the freedom to make these type of bets and wanted to play the election market, I’d short Rubio based on the level of betrayal that I’m sensing and I’d go long Trump based on that and my history as a contrarian indicator plus my preference for Cruz over Trump.

        Mercy Vetsel (@MercyVetsel)

        December 20, 2015 at 9:22 am

    • His biggest backer is a casino magnate.


      December 16, 2015 at 7:29 pm

  6. I see you still can get Trump for president at 8/1.


    December 16, 2015 at 4:52 pm

  7. Approximate amounts of money (in pounds) staked on betfair on
    Rubio 40,000
    Trump 95,000
    Bush 55,000

    It would only take a couple of thousand pounds to take Rubio’s price down to even money. So I don’t think his backers have thought of that yet.


    December 16, 2015 at 5:55 pm

  8. Though it hasn’t been discussed much, I find to be a very handy site. My only complaint is it limits the amount you can bet per contract to $850. I have a theory that this small size limits the rationality of markets, and in any case I’d be interested in betting much more.

    For my part, I intend to bet $850 against the Republicans winning the presidency. I’m hoping though that the odds move closer to 50/50 or at least 55/45 at some time in the next year before I execute the bet.

    Lion once hypothesized that Bush would be the last Republican president, but now I’m seeing all kinds of optimism here, even as the electorate loses 2 percentage points of whiteness with each election.

    Also haven’t seen much talk of 538’s election demographic tool, which I had some fun with:

    In the end, if the Republicans picked up two points among whites and if black turnout/support for Democrats dropped to historic levels, the Republicans could win. Trump could increase Republican support among non-college-educated whites, but I think he would cost support among the college-educated. I know several lifelong business Republicans here in flyover country who say they would vote Hillary over Trump.

    My prediction is that the Republicans will lose support among whites this election or at best see flat performance, with or without Trump, due primarily to the turnover in generations. Black support for Democrats will remain above historic levels but below Obama levels due to momentum from the Obama years and deteriorating race relations driving more of an us vs. them mentality.


    December 16, 2015 at 6:02 pm

    • Yes, I believe Americans can use PredictIt and also iPredict.

      Douglas Knight

      December 16, 2015 at 7:28 pm

    • I think Lion’s prediction that Bush was the last Republican President is probably a pretty safe bet. All things being equal, the demographics of the electoral college have permanently tipped in the Democrat’s favor. We saw that demonstrated pretty clearly in 2012. Of course, sometimes, all things are NOT equal. Another financial crisis or terrorist attack right before the elections could tip things. Also…Trump could tip things. Assuming the Republicans are not successful in keeping the nomination from him, he could be a game changer. None of the other Republican candidates would win however.

      Mike Street Station

      December 17, 2015 at 8:20 am

  9. Well I have taken your advice and laid Mr Rubio.
    I confidently expect that tomorrow morning it will be on the news that the police are digging up Mr Trump’s back garden.


    December 16, 2015 at 7:06 pm

  10. Oops, forgot you didn’t get fired – you quit. You are double lucky.


    December 16, 2015 at 7:21 pm

  11. unfortunately, the GOP has probably internalized the liberal edict that “you can’t have two white guys on the ticket,” so if the VEEP has to be a minority, I hope it’s Cruz–the most conservative guy running.


    December 16, 2015 at 8:50 pm

  12. LOL.


    December 17, 2015 at 2:57 am

  13. One thing I’ve noticed that I find very disturbing. When you remove Trump from the discussion among the debaters and simply focus on the other GOP contenders, you basically have two underlying policy proposals: 1) Massive, uncontrolled immigration into the United States; and 2) Massive warfare in the Middle East, probably WWIII, ending in a nuclear exchange.

    You have Kasich with his boots on the ground. Bush with his open borders nonsense to maintain “intelligence operations” among Middle Easterners. Christy with his shooting down of Russian aircraft. Fiorina with her hissy fits. Rubio and Cruz fiddling over policy wonkishness while Rome burns. Do these people not see that they are not going to roll into Moscow the way they rolled into Baghdad. Putin will nuke half the US before that happens.

    Frankly, I am not even sure that this is the worst outcome. On the other side you have Shrillary willing to continue Obama’s policies of dispossessing white people in the United States through mass immigration. Whitey is supposed to keep the lights on for the black and brown hordes until Whitey is voted into a violent persecuted minority. I would rather let the lights wink out on the planet and leave it for the cockroaches.

    Trump is the only sane and reasonable candidate across both fields.


    December 17, 2015 at 3:23 am

  14. This is an awesome quote from Chateau Heartiste.

    Jeb is so beta that you want to feel bad for him, but then you realize he wants your grandchildren to be brown, your cousins to die in the Middle East, your sweat to pay global profiteers, and your wife to be in charge of you.

    He deserves every bit of shame and embarrassment he feels and its still not enough. Trump is not just alpha, he is doing God’s work by destroying cucks like Jeb.


    December 17, 2015 at 3:31 am

    • This is a good quote, but my feeling about Jeb is that I want to decapitate him here and now.


      December 17, 2015 at 2:07 pm

  15. Brokered convention leading to Romney/Cruz +Trump getting scrooged sounds like an industrial grade sh*tshow & clustorfsck. Among other things, a Trump independent candidacy would become very likely. Even without Trump 3P, it would probably be difficult for Romney/Cruz to come back from that and win the general. So, Cruz would be making this deal in exchange for a spot on a losing ticket. I don’t see why he would want to do that. They better have some real good blackmail material on him. Otherwise, you gotta figure Cruz’s best bet at that point is Trump/Cruz. I agree with lion that Trump shouldn’t and probably won’t pick Cruz for VP … but I’m sure he’d be happy to if it’s necessitated by the brokered convention.

    The only way a brokered convention goes the party establishment’s way is if Trump + Cruz + Carson adds up to less than half the delegates. I shouldn’t say only way. It won’t be easy for them, but I’m sure they’ll make use of whatever traction they can get from bribes and blackmail. If you need all 3 of Trump delegates + Cruz delegates + Carson delegates to get to 50%, that creates opportunities to cut a separate deal with Cruz or Carson, whichever feels like Trump isn’t offering them enough. Overall, that doesn’t sound like a very plausible scenario. A three-way split between Trump, Cruz or Carson, and whoever’s the last man standing from the “anybody else” caucus could happen maybe, but anything more complicated than that is likely to get simplified as the primaries progress.

    Greg Pandatshang

    December 17, 2015 at 10:03 am

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