Lion of the Blogosphere

PPP post-debate poll

Public Policy Polling post-debate poll.

This is a poll of “usual Republican primary voters.” It was conducted by automated phone call for voters with landlines and by internet for voters with cell phones. Remember that Trump does better on automated and internet polls, and does worse on polls restricted to previous primary voters.

The poll finds that Trump’s support has grown stronger since the November poll, while Rubio has grown slightly weaker.

Trump is the biggest gainer since our last national poll in mid-November, going from 26% to 34%. He’s also become more broadly popular with GOP voters, with his favorability rating going from 51/37 up to 58/34.

Ted Cruz is in second place at 18%, and he has also grown stronger since the November poll.

I found the following comment about Huckabee interesting:

The candidate with the highest favorability rating nationally right now is actually…Mike Huckabee who comes in at 63/19. It’s not translating to a ton of support for the nomination- 4% say he’s their first choice, 6% say he’s their second choice. But he may be a darkhorse to pick up some steam later given how at least broadly popular he is.

If Huckabee picks up steam, it would benefit Trump because he would probably pull support from Cruz.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

December 18, 2015 at 7:27 pm

Posted in Politics

71 Responses

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  1. I didn’t realize it was a poll of “usual voters” as opposed to “likely voters”.

    Even if this “usual voters” screen is more accurate, it gives lie to the assumption by lots of shitlibs like Nate Silver that ultimately Trump’s supporters won’t turn out; because apparently his support is in the mid 30s even with people who have traditionally voted in primaries.

    I believe the “likely voter” screens are probably more accurate because we know Trump is bringing in new people. Fox is out with a poll today putting him at 39% which is about Trump’s average in all his post “muslim ban” polls.

    Assuming there are no more terror attacks between now and the final pre primary debate, you’ve got to figure that Trump stays in the high 30s until then. But after that the race gets crazy and we have to hope he doesn’t collapse like Dean did.

    Otis the Sweaty

    December 18, 2015 at 9:07 pm

    • I’m amazed none of the other candidates have copied Trump’s immigration/muslim positions. Fiorina or Christie could easily move into second place by doing so.

      J1

      December 19, 2015 at 11:19 am

      • Fiorina is so much part of the big business establishment she can’t even imagine being against immigration.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        December 19, 2015 at 11:42 am

      • Actually, Cruz kinda has copied Trump’s immigration positions and he is a much better advocate of immigration restrictionism than Trump himself.

        The others are simply true believers in open borders. It is the beltway and donor consensus. There are a few reasons for this:
        1. They are convinced it is the key winning a higher share of the Latino vote
        2. Open borders is great, economically, for the donor class
        3. More immigrants is great for increasing government power and control
        4. They think being against open borders is racist
        5. They don’t understand how passionately the base is against open borders

        Point 5 is slowly changing and if the GOP loses the 2016 elections, I think there will be more immigration restrictionist in the next Republican primaries.

        Otis the Sweaty

        December 19, 2015 at 1:31 pm

      • I agree with your four of the points. I don’t think that #3 is valid for most supporters of open borders. Maybe for some Democrats.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        December 19, 2015 at 2:08 pm

      • “Actually, Cruz kinda has copied Trump’s immigration positions and he is a much better advocate of immigration restrictionism than Trump himself.”

        Without borders you don’t have a nation. That right there is the heart of nationalism which is what Trump is running and winning on. I haven’t heard Cruz (brilliant, lawyer Cruz) utter those words once.

        Andrew E.

        December 19, 2015 at 4:54 pm

      • I’m amazed none of the other candidates have copied Trump’s immigration/muslim positions.
        Ann Coulter and Mickey Kaos have been talking about that for months. Its really odd. But Rand Paul seemed to have moved to the right in the last debate.

        dsgntd_plyr

        December 19, 2015 at 5:54 pm

      • “I’m amazed none of the other candidates have copied Trump’s immigration/muslim positions. Fiorina or Christie could easily move into second place by doing so.”

        I was surprised by that initially but it seems simply an indication of how much the other candidates are bought and paid for. Even if a candidate did agree with Trump on indication, Trump is self funding. No one else is and for the donor class, unlimited (or as near as possible) seems to be near the top of their priorities.

        Mike Street Station

        December 20, 2015 at 3:40 pm

  2. Didn’t even know Huckabee was in the race.

    ModernReader

    December 18, 2015 at 10:28 pm

    • He didn’t make the cut for the last debate.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      December 18, 2015 at 11:50 pm

    • I think Huckabee’s a great guy, but I don’t think he’s a serious candidate. Also, IIRC, he’s pretty liberal on economics.

      J1

      December 19, 2015 at 11:11 am

      • They still think that Compassionate Conservative shit just totally sells with the rubes.

        Mrs Stitch

        December 19, 2015 at 1:34 pm

  3. Remember that Trump does better on automated and internet polls, and does worse on polls restricted to previous primary voters.

    Automated polls have the same methodology and are as accurate as landline polls. The only difference is a living person asks which candidate a voter supports in landlines while automated polls have an automated voice ask questions.

    The Undiscovered Jew

    December 18, 2015 at 11:02 pm

    • Respondent behavior is different when dealing with an IVR vs dealing with a live humlan.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      December 18, 2015 at 11:51 pm

    • Respondent behavior is different when dealing with an IVR vs dealing with a live humlan.

      Different because an IVR presenting questions is better than having a human deliver them. An IVR is a recording that always asks the same question in the same way; a live human might make mistakes in delivery due to forgetfulness, bias, or incompetence. The result of automated polls with good methodology is IVR polls being as accurate as traditional polls or slightly better.

      The Undiscovered Jew

      December 19, 2015 at 6:28 pm

  4. Trump’s words spoken with a posh English accent. The content hasn’t changed. Only the accent.

    destructure

    December 18, 2015 at 11:54 pm

  5. I was thinking about Huckabee today. I’m shocked he hasn’t been more of a player in this race. He’s got a populism which seems to be a great fit for this year and he’s more likable than Cruz or trump. But Carson and Cruz have taken all the social conservative oxygen.

    However, Cruz may have peaked too soon. He’s being hit hard now. There’s a *shot* there for Huckabee in Iowa if Cruz loses some luster.

    I haven’t seen any evidence of trump being a conservative outside of immigration, and I also think he has no shot to win the general election.

    jack

    December 19, 2015 at 1:01 am

    • I think voters see him as a retread along with Santorum, but not as bad as how they see Perry, a retread who also blew it.

      vdorta

      December 19, 2015 at 2:37 pm

    • Trump is a populist which is different from a conservative even though there is a lot of overlap between populists and conservatives.

      Populism was THE dominant political strain in American politics for most of our early history until Lincoln changed the nation, permanently, by destroying the historic republican nature of the political arrangement. However, in the pre-Lincoln years populism tended to orbit around the resentments of the agriculture sector and its yoemen farmers vs. the growing commercial sector of the North. Post Lincoln, populism focused on efforts to control the excesses of capitalism and to oppose cultural balkanization through excessive immigration (slandered as white supremacy by Lefties). Trump is of this post-Lincoln populist order.

      Many Republican (conservative) candidates had some populist in them, certainly Nixon and Reagan did. Neither Bush was a populist.

      The only current candidates who are significantly populist, IMHO, are Trump and Cruz. Immigration and respect for the law are such bell weathers of the populist movement that if you can support ‘path to citizenship’, you are almost by definition not a populist. The last major populists were Buchanan, possibly Perot, and George Wallace. Populism has largely drawn on the South for its strength and influence and the South has been home to many of its greatest advocates. Sen. Jeff Sessions is a populist.

      Curle

      December 21, 2015 at 2:24 am

  6. Meanwhile in England:

    — Armed gang using gay dating app Grindr to target and rob men in London

    Detective Constable Sheree Yates from Croydon police said the victims did not suffer any serious physical injuries but were left “very shaken”. —

    Shaken indeed, Gov!

    Mobutu

    December 19, 2015 at 12:25 pm

    • Mainly the victims were offended that they were not subjected to any form of sexual assault…

      Tarl

      December 20, 2015 at 3:49 pm

  7. Otis the Sweaty

    December 19, 2015 at 1:41 pm

    • Yes I read that and was surprised, until now I thought trump had a good ground game. I guess not.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      December 19, 2015 at 2:10 pm

      • The NYT would never, ever give Donald bad press! They’re a fair paper. No plagiarists either.

        Mobutu

        December 19, 2015 at 2:13 pm

    • If the NYT told you that white people are inherently racist, America owes reparations to blacks and that allowing open borders was a moral imperative, would you believe them?

      Andrew E.

      December 20, 2015 at 5:44 pm

      • Andrew, The New York Times is a lying bag. I also don’t believe that a man can become a woman or a woman can become a man because of plastic surgery. Even though the New York Times says that it’s so.

        But I might believe a story that says that Trump doesn’t have a good ground game in Iowa. That’s something that the New York Times might be believed on. I don’t trust the fact that most of Trump’s campaign consists of addressing large crowds. At first this might seem a good thing, but I don’t think he’s good at one-on-one politicking, which is what primary campaigning is.

        gothamette

        December 20, 2015 at 8:40 pm

  8. The office moron was putting Trump on the couch the other day, as well as ‘those’ people who support immigration restrictions, and I made the mistake of weighing in on defense for Trump et al. Afterwards wondered whether it is dumb to care whether the rest of the US goes to hell in a handbag on behalf of childish idealism. I can still get my money and flee. Note to self: moral signaling is more important than reality. Go Jeb!!!

    Curle

    December 19, 2015 at 1:55 pm

    • Flee where?

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      December 19, 2015 at 2:11 pm

      • Indeed. Ain’t nowhere to go. And you all know I like guns and stuff, so I’ll leave it at that. We could all end up like that nice girl in Crown Heights. Or worse…

        Mobutu

        December 19, 2015 at 2:15 pm

    • That is exactly my reason for voting Trump and only Trump. I already left a Third World cesspit and this is my (and my family’s) line in the sand. If he wins the country still has a chance; if anybody else wins it’s only decline at slightly different speeds.

      vdorta

      December 19, 2015 at 2:46 pm

  9. O/T: Lion, can you remind me of your thoughts on Persian rugs? I’m in a position to buy one at the moment.

    Samson

    December 19, 2015 at 2:44 pm

    • Are we now able to buy genuine Iranian rugs since Obama made nice with them?

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      December 19, 2015 at 2:45 pm

      • One can find older Persian rugs through dealers and estate sales.

        nebbish

        December 19, 2015 at 5:26 pm

      • I think you’ve always been able to buy them as long as they’re “used”.

        J1

        December 20, 2015 at 12:57 am

      • I’m not in North America at the moment.

        Samson

        December 20, 2015 at 1:04 pm

  10. I’m seeing a lot of mixed reviews about Trump’s ground game. The NYT article indicates that it is amateurish crap similar to Howard Dean’s pathetic 2004 effort but others say that it is strong albeit in a purely “grass roots” way as opposed to the classic machine style that Ted Cruz is deploying.

    What would be interesting would be to compare Trump’s Iowa ground game to Santorum’s in 2012. Chuck Laudner was the man behind Santorum’s Iowa 2012 performance and he is running Trump’s current campaign in the state. He knows what he is doing and his reputation is on the line here, so I presume he is taking it very seriously and has some kind of plan.

    Also it is fair to note that while Trump’s Iowa campaign doesn’t seem to match the professionalism of Obama’s 2008 campaign in the state, the Dem primaries are a different ball of wax being much more complex.

    Otis the Sweaty

    December 19, 2015 at 3:59 pm

  11. Any chance Chuck Laudner is trying to sabotage Trump in Iowa? Is he secretly working for someone else?

    Some of these campaigns are so tone deaf it seems like they have an enemy in their camp.

    McCain, Romney, one dumb move after another.

    Is Chuck Laudner “underorganizing” his ground game on purpose?

    Rifleman

    December 20, 2015 at 10:11 am

    • Money talks, I’ll bet Laudner is smart enough to know that doing right by Trump is good for your wallet.

      Since he was with Santorum last time he’s obviously not “in the pocket” of the establishment, Santorum is not exactly anti-establishment, but still. It would be more concerning if he was McCain and Romney’s guy.

      jackmcg

      December 21, 2015 at 1:17 am

  12. Cruz up big in IA in the latest poll. He is at 40 and Trump is at 31. There are now 2 polls showing Cruz with a huge lead in the state.

    Howard Dean’s huge NH lead evaporated after he was shellacked in Iowa so Iowa definitely does matter, even if it is not decisive. I think Cruz is going to be very tough to beat in IA but a strong 2nd place finish followed by a win in NH would still be enough to guarantee victory.

    If the establishment gets its act together, however, they could win NH outright. The establishment candidates continue to consolidate at 42% in NH.

    Otis the Sweaty

    December 20, 2015 at 12:39 pm

    • It’s bad news for Trump.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      December 20, 2015 at 12:46 pm

    • Howard Dean’s huge NH lead evaporated after he was shellacked in Iowa

      There were no policy differences early on between Dean and other Democrats aside from the Iraq war. Later other Democrats copied Dean’s antiwar rhetoric to capture his supporters.

      Except for Cruz, Trump still has immigration and being tough on Islamic terrorism serving as his main differentiators. That position will carry him deep into the primaries after Iowa. Trump also can now lower expectations about Iowa to minimize damage from there and surprise to the upside if he takes first – Dean’s loss of support in Iowa was sudden.

      The Undiscovered Jew

      December 20, 2015 at 5:31 pm

      • Well that is kinda the issue, Cruz can in fact take votes from Trump and right now is doing just that. Maybe not enough to be fatal, but still is having an impact.

        My point though was that the Silver school of thought does have some merit. It’s not that early polls are meaningless, but that they are far from definitive. Dean was the clear front runner in IA until a week before the caucuses when his support evaporated for no reason. There is no reason the same thing couldn’t happen to Trump.

        Otis the Sweaty

        December 20, 2015 at 6:51 pm

      • Trump has a bigger lead than Dean had. But it’s going to make it harder for him if Cruz win’s Iowa.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        December 20, 2015 at 8:15 pm

      • There is no reason the same thing couldn’t happen to Trump.

        Possibly. But Dean’s support was thinner because he was essentially the same as the other establishment Democrats on policy. Trump is substantively more different to GOP voters, both in terms of policy and his considerable personality.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        December 21, 2015 at 6:22 pm

    • Also many Iowa voters, among whom 70% support ethanol mandates, don’t know Cruz is against ethanol. Cruz very well could still lose Iowa to Trump.

      The Undiscovered Jew

      December 20, 2015 at 5:48 pm

  13. Trump was on Stephanopoulos this morning, bashing the Iran deal. Is trump right about this? I have no way of figuring out who’s right and who’s wrong.

    That’s another irony about Trump and the white nationalists. In theory they should be in favor of the Iran deal because it’s bad for Israel, but they’re guy is against it, because he thinks it’s a terrible deal for us. What’s a white nationalist to do?

    gothamette

    December 20, 2015 at 4:18 pm

    • I agree with the Iran deal. It prevents Iran from developing a deliverable nuclear weapon. Even the Israeli’s acknowledge that. Israel is against it because it also ends the sanctions on Iran and therefor increases Iran’s economic power which weakens Israel’s puppet Palestinian Authority.

      Otis the Sweaty

      December 20, 2015 at 5:20 pm

      • I agree with the Iran deal.

        Trump is focused on the money. He doesn’t like the idea that according to him the US paid Iran to accept the deal.

        Rifleman

        December 20, 2015 at 6:35 pm

      • You’re not answering the question. Trump had a very sophisticated objection to be around you, but I can’t understand it. I want to know whether or not his objection is well founded.

        gothamette

        December 20, 2015 at 7:47 pm

      • Sorry, that came out wrong. Meant to say he had a sophisticated objection to the deal but I can’t understand it, it’s on a level above me. If anyone saw the Stephanopoulos interview, I would appreciate an interpretation.

        gothamette

        December 20, 2015 at 7:49 pm

      • For Yahweh’s sake, why don’t the Izzies just grab every last Palestinian and shove their asses into Egypt or someplace else? Plenty will bitch and moan (and muzzies bitch and moan, it is an art with those loons) but that’s all that will happen. Maybe a New York Times strongly written editorial or some shit on CNN from that ugly Amanpour rat.

        Mobutu

        December 20, 2015 at 9:54 pm

      • Too late now, should have done it in 67.

        gothamette

        December 20, 2015 at 10:41 pm

    • Is trump right about this? I have no way of figuring out who’s right and who’s wrong.

      If Trump opposes something and Obama supports it, that’s all you need to know.

      The Undiscovered Jew

      December 20, 2015 at 5:33 pm

      • I’m not paranoid, Lion. I grew up in a working-class Catholic neighborhood and I learn to overlook most ethnic joking, which is meaningless.

        But these white nationalists are the real deal. White nationalists are all over the internet, and they infest Twitter. The so called alt right, which has a lot of intellectual energy, is basically made up of hard core anti-semites. I occasionally read one of them on Twitter, he’s a very bright guy, but he likes to retweet hardcore anti-semitic images.

        One of them which he recently retweeted, showed an image out of Nazi imagery, a big hook nosed Jew, stalking, rubbing his hands in delight, and they just thought that was really hilarious.

        Your comments Rifleman seems awfully sensitive. He probably agrees with them. I had thought this stuff was dead and gone, but it’s not. He is a total liar and I wish that I could just face him in person and tell him this. Pretty much every blog on the HBD – all right is anti-semitic, more or less. The comments regularly feature whining about Jews, usually referred to as Eskimos, and blame Jews for advocating race mixing and open immigration.

        Jews are consistently defamed and are an obsession on these websites. To participate in these discussions is a personal disgrace. There is no point in arguing with them.

        gothamette

        December 20, 2015 at 8:30 pm

      • But these white nationalists are the real deal.

        They’re hopeless and irrelevant for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is intermarriage rates. If 5% of white Americans are at least a quarter Jewish then another 15% to 20% of gentile white Americans have close Jewish relations, either as spouses (Ivanka Trump) grandparents (The Donald) or as nieces, nephews, half-siblings, etc. Intermarriage alone makes a viable anti-semitic movement pretty much impossible to get out from marginal corners of the internet.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        December 21, 2015 at 6:26 pm

    • What’s a white nationalist to do?

      Jeez, get over it. So-called “white nationalists” are just a bogeyman to liberal leftists and paranoid Jews.

      Worry about something more real like flying saucers and Dracula.

      Rifleman

      December 20, 2015 at 6:32 pm

      • They are powerless, but they do exist, they are not space alien or vampires.

        Jews are paranoid because the last time an anti-Semite became the leader of a country, millions of Jews died. Not saying that’s going to happen again, but Jews have a legitimate reason for paranoia.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        December 20, 2015 at 8:14 pm

      • I struck a nerve, did I? Tough shit.

        gothamette

        December 20, 2015 at 8:20 pm

      • Those Jews who actively aid, abet and support “white nationalism” will have no problems with white nationalists.

        Those Jews who actively fight against “white nationalism” will hold the ire of the white nationalists.

        Why is that not surprising?

        map

        December 21, 2015 at 2:08 am

      • “the last time an anti-Semite became the leader of a country, millions of Jews died.”

        Not really. I bet lots of American presidents over the years have had some degree of what might be called anti-semitism and never let it affect their actions much. Nixon clearly found Jews annoying but surrounded himself with them anyway. FDR doesn’t appear to have been a big fan of the Jews and perhaps he held back from prioritizing camp liberation because of it, but that is a long way from endorsing holocaust. Of the endless fallacies that seem to be rationalized by the example of the Nazis is the idea that any degree of aversion or suspicion of Jews will lead to holocaust.

        Curle

        December 21, 2015 at 2:38 am

      • In any event, Jewish paranoia is not made up out of thin air, but based on horrible events that many Jews alive today still remember.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        December 21, 2015 at 8:23 am

    • I saw that interview. Trump emphasized how ending the sanctions allows Iran to re-arm. I don’t recall him mentioning WMDs. He wants a weak Iran, which doesn’t seem like a bad idea, but I don’t know enough to say he’s right or wrong.

      DSGNTD_PLYR

      December 20, 2015 at 6:43 pm

      • I was specifically referring to the fact that there was a long, technical exchange between him and Stephanopoulos about the details of the Iran agreement. I would very much like to see an exchange between him and Hillary on this, because I think he would get the better of her.

        I think Hillary is very bright, but I don’t know whether or not she has command of contractual, negotiating positions as Trump does. That has basically been Trump’s entire life, negotiating contracts.

        gothamette

        December 20, 2015 at 8:34 pm

  14. I agree with Rifleman. Listening to Jews bitch about anti-semitism is pretty annoying, although it has gotten to the point for me that it is more boring than anything else.

    There has always been people don’t like Jews. So what? Not everybody has to like us. Ultra Orthodox Jews never worry about people not liking them.

    Otis the Sweaty

    December 20, 2015 at 10:09 pm

  15. Lion, can you offer your assessment of the car “accident” in Vegas, it appears very similar to the deliberate crashes in France and Israel.

    Roli

    December 21, 2015 at 12:54 am

  16. Schlafly is supporting Trump. This lady is a real conservative hero and a social conservative. She almost single-handedly destroyed the ERA back in the 70s. This is a big win for The Donald and I hope a harbinger of more high profile conservatives coming out for him. Plus, she did so on a high profile conservative web site. Speaking of conservative sites, I wonder when NR will bite hard and come out for Donald. They are, after all, opportunists and hate to be seen as the last guys to get on board a Republican bandwagon. http://www.wnd.com/2015/12/top-conservative-trump-is-last-hope-for-america/

    Curle

    December 21, 2015 at 1:55 am

  17. Mobutu writes: “just grab every last Palestinian and shove their asses into Egypt or someplace else”

    I was surprised to learn that Israel proper, not including the lands conquered in 1967, is only 75% Jewish. Muslim Arabs, who technically are Israeli legal citizens even while they yearn for the liquidation of their other fellow citizens, comprise 21 percent of the population. This makes Israel by far the most Islamic of any Western country. France, for instance, is “only” 8 percent Muslim.

    Mark Caplan

    December 21, 2015 at 8:08 am

  18. OT: classy organic boutique chocolates score poorly in taste test against Hershey bar:

    http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2015/dec/20/mast-brothers-chocolate-bars-scandal

    slithy toves

    December 21, 2015 at 8:30 am

  19. Is Iowa really something to worry about from Trump’s perspective? Santorum won in 2012 and it didn’t go much further. It seems Iowa;s Republican primary voters consist of mainly evangelicals, who wouldn’t vote for Trump vs someone like Cruz. I still think there are reasons for optimism.

    JerseyGuy

    December 21, 2015 at 9:03 am

    • Trump is unstoppable if he wins both Iowa and NH. Of course a lot of candidates won the nomination while losing in Iowa, but the guy who won Iowa was a pain in the ass. It would be better if Trump could start focusing on Hillary Clinton and not have to deal with a Republican pain in the ass.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      December 21, 2015 at 9:30 am


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