Proof that automated polls are correct!!!
I’ve mentioned many times about how Trump does better on automated and online polls than he does on live-interview polls.
As explained in an article in today’s LA Times, Morning Consult decided to figure out the mystery of Trump’s support in the polls by randomly assigning people to the three different approaches.
They found out that Trump does 6 points better overall in the online and automated polls. And the really telling proof that people are not telling the live interviewer the truth because of political correctness has to do with the difference in behavior between blue-collar and college-educated respondents:
Among blue-collar Republicans, who have formed the core of Trump’s support, the polls were about the same regardless of method. But among college-educated Republicans, a bigger difference appeared, with Trump scoring 9 points better in the online poll.
College-educated Republicans are smart enough to understand that it’s “wrong” to support Trump, but the blue-collar Republicans are less politically correct.
This is great news for Trump. We have proof that the polls are underestimating his support.
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The other oddity of Trump’s poll results is that Trump does better when all voters are polled, rather than when the poll is restricted to voters who previously voted in a primary election. Will Trump supporters who have not previously voted in a primary election be motivated to turn out for Trump?
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Most-read article right now at the NY Daily News: Face it: Trump’s the true GOP favorite now. “Trump is currently far better positioned to win the nomination than any other candidate. GOP leaders, and the pundits who repeat their arguments, can dance around that fact all they want. But they can no longer credibly deny it.”
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In the Fox News Poll released Friday evening, Trump had 39% support, but that was a live-interview poll. If we add six points because of respondents embarrassed to admit they were going to vote for Trump, his real support is 45%. Trump’s support is growing to the point in which it doesn’t matter if the establishment rallies around a single candidate and everyone else drops out, that other single candidate is not going to win.
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Unfortunately, a recent internet-poll of Iowa voters now shows that Trump is trailing Cruz by 9 points, and then there was that article in the NY Times that Trump’s ground game in Iowa actually sucks. Looks like Trump may lose Iowa.
Possibly mitigating the bad new for Trump is that he is far ahead of Rubio who is way down there in third place. But nevertheless, I see an MSM bombardment post-Iowa proclaiming that Trump will lose the nomination now that he was defeated by Cruz.