Lion of the Blogosphere

Proof that automated polls are correct!!!

I’ve mentioned many times about how Trump does better on automated and online polls than he does on live-interview polls.

As explained in an article in today’s LA Times, Morning Consult decided to figure out the mystery of Trump’s support in the polls by randomly assigning people to the three different approaches.

They found out that Trump does 6 points better overall in the online and automated polls. And the really telling proof that people are not telling the live interviewer the truth because of political correctness has to do with the difference in behavior between blue-collar and college-educated respondents:

Among blue-collar Republicans, who have formed the core of Trump’s support, the polls were about the same regardless of method. But among college-educated Republicans, a bigger difference appeared, with Trump scoring 9 points better in the online poll.

College-educated Republicans are smart enough to understand that it’s “wrong” to support Trump, but the blue-collar Republicans are less politically correct.

This is great news for Trump. We have proof that the polls are underestimating his support.

* * *

The other oddity of Trump’s poll results is that Trump does better when all voters are polled, rather than when the poll is restricted to voters who previously voted in a primary election. Will Trump supporters who have not previously voted in a primary election be motivated to turn out for Trump?

* * *

Most-read article right now at the NY Daily News: Face it: Trump’s the true GOP favorite now. “Trump is currently far better positioned to win the nomination than any other candidate. GOP leaders, and the pundits who repeat their arguments, can dance around that fact all they want. But they can no longer credibly deny it.”

* * *

In the Fox News Poll released Friday evening, Trump had 39% support, but that was a live-interview poll. If we add six points because of respondents embarrassed to admit they were going to vote for Trump, his real support is 45%. Trump’s support is growing to the point in which it doesn’t matter if the establishment rallies around a single candidate and everyone else drops out, that other single candidate is not going to win.

* * *

Unfortunately, a recent internet-poll of Iowa voters now shows that Trump is trailing Cruz by 9 points, and then there was that article in the NY Times that Trump’s ground game in Iowa actually sucks. Looks like Trump may lose Iowa.

Possibly mitigating the bad new for Trump is that he is far ahead of Rubio who is way down there in third place. But nevertheless, I see an MSM bombardment post-Iowa proclaiming that Trump will lose the nomination now that he was defeated by Cruz.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

December 21, 2015 at 2:20 pm

Posted in Politics

8 Responses

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  1. If the stupid Christians rob Trump of his IA victory that would be very unfortunate, but a strong 2nd place showing would still be good enough to carry that momentum to a win in NH. Remember that Dean was expected to win IA and came in 3rd and that plus the scream finished him in NH. Trump comes in a strong 2nd and all is well.

    What is interesting/concerning is that team Cruz still doesn’t see Trump as a threat. According to an article released today they think IA is in the bag and after that they are worried about Rubio. Not sure if it is magical thinking on their part or if they have info to indicate that Trump will fade.

    Otis the Sweaty

    December 21, 2015 at 3:26 pm

  2. “But nevertheless, I see an MSM bombardment post-Iowa proclaiming that Trump will lose the nomination now that he was defeated by Cruz.”

    Let’s look at the history of the Iowa Caucuses. These are the results for all the years since 1980 where there was a contest in the Republican primary:

    1980: George H. W. Bush, Reagan came in 2nd.
    1988: Bob Dole, George H. W. Bush who won the nomination came in 3rd.
    1996: Bob Dole, who went on to win the nomination
    2000: George W. Bush, who went on to win the nomination
    2008: Mike Huckabee, John McCain who won the nomination came in 4th.
    2012: Rick Santorum , Mitt Romney who won the nomination was almost tied but in 2nd

    If Trump can finish 2nd is Iowa, that would make him well positioned to win the nomination.

    mikeca

    December 21, 2015 at 3:48 pm

  3. Cruz and Fiorina are the two Republicans who could actually make me cast a vote for Clinton.

    chairman

    December 21, 2015 at 4:43 pm

  4. social-desirability bias

    Among PUA nerds theres a thing called “social proof”, meaning when good looking girls find some guy attractive other girls will too.

    The most likely explanation for that education gap, Dropp and his colleagues believe, is a well-known problem known as social-desirability bias — the tendency of people to not want to confess unpopular views to a pollster.

    Blue-collar voters don’t feel embarrassed about supporting Trump, who is very popular in their communities, the pollsters suggested. But many college-educated Republicans may hesitate to admit their attraction to Trump, the experiment indicates.

    Rifleman

    December 21, 2015 at 4:52 pm

    • That’s why when Trump starts winning primaries, social proof will cause more voters to flock to him.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      December 21, 2015 at 5:25 pm

  5. Lindsay Grahmnesty is now gone. Thank God.

    Need Ludd

    December 21, 2015 at 5:26 pm

    • Some guy named “Lindsay Graham” was running for president? Who knew? Next you’ll tell me that some ex-governor of New York is also running for president. (Well, if elected, Pataki probably wouldn’t be any worse of a president than Jeb Bush.)

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      December 21, 2015 at 5:28 pm

  6. College-educated Republicans are smart enough to understand that it’s “wrong” to support Trump, but the blue-collar Republicans are less politically correct.

    Why would white collar Republicans be more honest with an automated poll than a live person? I previously said that poll questions delivered by living questioners were more subject to error because of bias, tone, and mistakes made on the part of interviewers part. But why would interviewees be more forthcoming in one case than the other?

    Unfortunately, a recent internet-poll of Iowa voters now shows that Trump is trailing Cruz by 9 points, and then there was that article in the NY Times that Trump’s ground game in Iowa actually sucks. Looks like Trump may lose Iowa.

    Trump is still the heavy favorite almost everywhere else, but I’m all for an early victory in Iowa to sew everything early.

    Trump should hit Cruz for opposing ethanol mandates which have 70% approval in Iowa. Of course, I also oppose ethanol because it damages my cars engine longterm, but I”m much more concerned with Trump winning.

    The Undiscovered Jew

    December 21, 2015 at 6:11 pm


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