Lion of the Blogosphere

New CNN poll good for Trump

CNN live-interview poll:

Trump 39%
Cruz 18%
Carson 10%
Rubio 10%
Christie 5%
Paul 4%
Bush 3%

Because live-interview polls tend to underestimate Trump’s support by 6% on account of political correctness, this means that Trump’s true support is around 45%. Or maybe people are just getting used to Trump and are no longer pretending not to support him.

It’s also noteworthy that Trump has even higher support on questions like who can best handle the economy (57%), illegal immigration (55%), ISIS (45%). I think this means that Trump’s support has room to grow and it will grow to be above 50% once voting starts. The social proof of Trump winning early primaries will cause people who think he can best handle the economy and illegal immigration to vote for him.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

December 23, 2015 at 1:04 pm

Posted in Politics

10 Responses

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  1. If it goes down to Trump and Cruz, how do you think the 32% of support currently for the other candidates will be split between Trump and Cruz?


    December 23, 2015 at 2:59 pm

  2. Carson mostly represents the Christian identity vote, and to a lesser extent, a dissident right, anyone-whose-not-from-the-establishment vote. I predict it goes to Cruz 8/2.

    Christie, being a fat jersey loud mouth, is basically an establishment Trump; all 5% will likely go to Trump

    I’m not sure what kind of republican votes for Rand Paul, other than one fixated on an isolationist foreign policy, or one fixated on the wacky anti-fed rantings of rand’s father. Hard to predict, but I will say that 1.5% will each go to Cruz and Trump, 1% won’t vote at all.

    Anyone still supporting Bush or Kaisch at this stage is a person who would simply not vote for Cruz or Trump in any circumstance. All their support will go to Hilary or they will just not vote.

    Whatever Fiorina has will probably go mostly to Trump.

    Rubio is a tough one. I think only a small share of his support will ultimately go Trump, maybe 2%. I could see no more than 5 going to Cruz, the remaining 3 abstaining or voting Hilary. It may very well turn out that Rubio’s 10% of support will largely end up voting for Hilary or just staying home.

    In any of those scenarios, Trump still comes out the overwhelming favorite. The only thing that might trip him up is how he handles a loss in Iowa, which is seeming increasingly likely. So much of Trump’s appeal, and so much of what he talks about, revolves around how dominant his position is in the polls, and how much of a winner he is generally. So many of his attacks revolve around how his opponents “lost” in this or that scenario. It will be interesting to see how his persona, and by extension, his support, holds up up when it is he who is on the wrong side of that equation.


    December 23, 2015 at 6:02 pm

    • Iowa will come down to turnout. If convention holds and only 6% of registered voters bother to show up then Cruz will probably win. But if the people at Trump’s rallies get off their butts and caucus, bringing turnout to 10%+, then Trump wins easily.

      Andrew E.

      December 23, 2015 at 7:16 pm

      • From what I have read, Trump does not have a strong ground game in Iowa. He has been trying to build one, but has not been very successful so far. The reason Evangelicals dominate Iowa caucuses is because they turn out. Cruz has been concentrating on appealing to Evangelicals in Iowa and probably has a stronger ground game to make sure his voters show up at the caucuses.


        December 24, 2015 at 2:10 pm

    • I suspect that most of Rand Paul’s supporters would turn to Trump. Trump is the only other Republican who isn’t itching to bomb the Middle East into oblivion.

      Great Again

      December 24, 2015 at 3:34 pm

  3. I’m really getting sick of all the white shaming.


    December 23, 2015 at 10:31 pm

    • You’re sick of it? Just now? Have you missed the last 25 years or did it just take that long to start bothering you?

      Re polls: I think we need to be honest with ourselves that these national polls just don’t mean much. It isn’t that they mean nothing, but there is no national primary and the later state primaries will be effected by the results in the first 2 states. Unfortunately, the first 2 states will be very difficult for us because Iowa’s massive Christian population wants Cruz so they can get their dream of 10s of millions more black people and NH’s liberals want an open borders guy. Basically the first 2 states are the worst in the country for us.

      Just got to have momentum going into SC. Let Cruz win IA and if the establishment consolidates around Rubio in NH, let them have their win there. They key is that we finish 2nd in both of those states. After that we run the board.

      Otis the Sweaty

      December 24, 2015 at 12:39 am

  4. An Iowan Republican activist writes about Trump’s ground game, we may have a chance in IA after all:

    Otis the Sweaty

    December 24, 2015 at 3:39 am

  5. You will love this article, Lion:

    It’s truly informative. Trump knows NY City and State politics intimately. He probably has a lot of dirt on all the pols. Come to think of it, Cuomo has been awfully quiet about Trump, hasn’t he? Why won’t he come out and support Hillary now?? (Sorry if this is a double post, something messed up in my login.)


    December 24, 2015 at 9:29 am

  6. This is a hilarious video: Trump Vader.


    December 24, 2015 at 12:47 pm

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