Lion of the Blogosphere

New Trump ad

This is the ad he is going to show on TV in Iowa. I like it.

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Scott Adams, the creator of Dilbert, rates the ad A++++.

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I also like this Scott Adams observation:

Trump isn’t just changing politics. He is changing our understanding of reality by brushing aside the illusion that humans use reason to make important decisions. This extends well beyond politics.

Voting isn’t even an especially important decision. Who you vote for has no direct impact on your life.

I should probably be paying more attention to Scott Adams.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

January 4, 2016 at 9:45 am

Posted in Politics

74 Responses

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  1. If a left-winger made an ad designed to make Republicans look as moronic as possible I’m not sure it would be much different than this. He is doubling-down on not just his dumbest policy ideas, but his most impossible ones. It makes me take more seriously the idea that he is a Democratic plant.

    MARTINage

    January 4, 2016 at 10:23 am

    • So, whose ideas do you support, and why?

      ASF

      January 4, 2016 at 11:03 am

    • The story of America is one of boldness in the face of adversities. From colonizing a hostile wilderness, defeating the mighty British Army, to pioneers settling the frontiers. Thank god there weren’t enough niggling Martins back then to convince everyone that it all wasn’t possible.

      Andrew E.

      January 4, 2016 at 11:05 am

      • It is not possible for the President of the United States to impose a “temporary ban on Muslims entering the United States” for a whole host of reasons both logistical and constitutional. And what the hell does “until we can figure out what is going on” mean?

        I have no idea how Trump plans to destroy ISIS and “take their oil” without deploying ground troops to the Middle East, something he has said he is not interested in.

        The Mexican government will not pay for the multi-billion dollar border wall Trump wants to build. It would be slightly more plausible for him to suggest he will force Mexico to BUILD a wall, but no foreign government is going to hand over untold sums of their taxpayers’ money to some American wall-building fund that — knowing how government works — may or may not actually wind up being used for its intended purpose.

        These are not crazy or overly pessimistic arguments I’m making here. Trump is simply not making serious promises. He is a scam artist who is good at hustling gullible people. He always has been.

        MARTINage

        January 4, 2016 at 12:35 pm

      • “constitutional.”

        The Supreme Court has ruled many times that the Bill of Rights does not apply to immigration policy.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        January 4, 2016 at 12:40 pm

      • Look, it’s not difficult. Government finance is one giant pot of money. Some goes here, some goes there. It’s all one fungible pool. We give Mexico billions in foreign aid each year. Illegal mexicans send back tens of billions of dollars in remittances to families each year. Our trade deficit with Mexico each year is tens of billions of dollars. Trump says he is going to end these things and use a small part of the annual savings to build a wall. Ergo, Mexico pays for the wall. Simples.

        Andrew E.

        January 4, 2016 at 1:11 pm

      • “It is not possible for the President of the United States to impose a “temporary ban on Muslims entering the United States” for a whole host of reasons both logistical and constitutional.”

        When it comes to suspending citizens 2nd amendment rights without dues process the Press/Democrats where just fine with using the airline watch list for that.

        Lion of the Turambar

        January 4, 2016 at 1:48 pm

      • Lion, this goes far beyond “immigration policy.” As many others have asked, what about American Muslims? What about Muslim servicemen? What about Muslim diplomats from other nations? What about Muslim heads of state? If he wants no Muslim immigration, he could have said no Muslim immigration. Instead he says no “Muslims entering the United States” which is absurdly broad and impossible. It is just a dog-whistle to get the votes of people who dislike Muslims and don’t think about the issue beyond that.

        And a constitutional argument is not merely a Bill of Rights argument. Trump has no understanding of what the president can and cannot do.

        MARTINage

        January 4, 2016 at 3:01 pm

      • With respect to immigration, the president can do a LOT by executive order. The reason why there are millions of illegal in this country is because Obama has directed the government not to enforce the laws. Trump can change that without Congress.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        January 4, 2016 at 5:09 pm

      • It is not possible for the President of the United States to impose a “temporary ban on Muslims entering the United States” for a whole host of reasons both logistical and constitutional.

        Federal law explicitly allows the President to suspend issuing visas within any category, suspend the visa-waiver program for any country, and target individuals, or groups, with moratoriums.

        As far as identifying Muslims. Just use nationality, and/or go through various online membership lists (Muslim Student Union of the University of Toronto, etc).

        DSGNTD_PLYR

        January 4, 2016 at 3:43 pm

      • As many others have asked, what about American Muslims?

        Revoke their ‘citizenship” on grounds Islam is a terrorist organization. Ditto for Western European and Israeli Muslim ‘citizens’.

        What about Muslim servicemen? What about Muslim diplomats from other nations?

        They can email Trump’s SoS.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        January 4, 2016 at 5:54 pm

      • @Undiscovered

        Yes, all minorities with Middle-Eastern ancestry should have their citizenship revoked ASAP.

        Instant improvement of this nation.

        Carpenizer

        January 4, 2016 at 6:22 pm

      • Yes, all minorities with Middle-Eastern ancestry should have their citizenship revoked ASAP.

        There’s no need to be an asshole and insult Lebanese Christian Americans.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        January 4, 2016 at 8:31 pm

      • “It is not possible for the President of the United States to impose a “temporary ban on Muslims entering the United States” for a whole host of reasons both logistical and constitutional.”

        As the late Joe Sobran used to say (wryly) ‘the U.S. Constitution poses no serious threat to our form of government.’

        One of my favorite quotes. Probably because it is so true.

        Curle

        January 4, 2016 at 11:58 pm

    • If Trump were a plant, he wouldn’t have attacked Huma’s pervert husband a few months ago. Weiner resigned from his cushy new job at a PR firm shortly after Trump’s comments. He also wouldn’t be saying anything about Bill Clinton’s, ahem, problems with women. I hope Hillary keeps playing the gender card and Trump starts comparing Bill Clinton to Bill Cosby.

      Robert

      January 4, 2016 at 11:12 am

    • It works. You’re showing why he’s anti-fragile, if their attack ads highlight these things, it only makes people like him more.

      jackmcg

      January 4, 2016 at 11:16 am

    • The doofusness is justified somewhat if he’s doing it to get free coverage from the media but if he’s actually paying for ads it would make more sense to present a more sober serious image. Especially if he’s just repeating what the media has already covered and so can’t expect them to give any more air time to.

      Lloyd Llewellyn

      January 4, 2016 at 11:57 am

    • Although I should say that the only stupid thing in my opinion is his claim that he can cut the head off of ISIS. I also think the muslim ban should apply permanently to immigrant visas which I doubt he’ll end up doing.

      Lloyd Llewellyn

      January 4, 2016 at 12:08 pm

      • I trust Trump’s sense of what works in ads better than my own, but as a matter of policy, I don’t think there’s any point to attacking ISIS in the Mideast. They have no capability to attack us from there, and, to the extent that an Islamic State attracts radical Muslims to leave the West and go there, it’s good for us. Just don’t let them back in.

        Dave Pinsen

        January 4, 2016 at 7:56 pm

      • Trump’s strategy is to starve them of money and let the Russians fight them.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        January 4, 2016 at 8:41 pm

      • The ground forces of Assad and the Kurds combined with extensive American airstrikes are more than sufficient to defeat ISIS. An American land presence is unnecessary – it’s not like these yahoos with Kalashnikovs are the second coming of von Manstein’s Ukrainian army.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        January 4, 2016 at 8:50 pm

      • it’s not like these yahoos with Kalashnikovs are the second coming of von Manstein’s Ukrainian army.

        Good point. I laugh at the accounts of terror attacks describing one of the I.Q.-of-80 perpetrators as the “mastermind” and the planning of the “operation” as “sophisticated”: most of the attacks no more require direction by a mastermind or sophisticated planning than does a drive–by shooting in the black ghetto.

        silberstreak

        January 5, 2016 at 11:20 am

      • I laugh at the accounts of terror attacks describing one of the I.Q.-of-80 perpetrators as the “mastermind” and the planning of the “operation” as “sophisticated”: most of the attacks no more require direction by a mastermind or sophisticated planning than does a drive–by shooting in the black ghetto.

        It is for this reason bin Laden never delivered a satisfactory followup to 911: his goons were too dim to pull off the sophisticated sequel he longed for.

        Al Bagdhadi has the model most appropriate for his men’s abilities. No James Bond villain schemes for them. Just meet in the woods, toss the assault rifles and body armor into the back of a truck, and send them to shoot Western crowds at random.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        January 5, 2016 at 5:36 pm

    • Its a meta commercial forcing the pundit class to comment on it. And being talked about means Trump is the center of the race.

      Its a multiplier effect- by tossing in the cat nip of “take their oil” and “force Mexico to pay for it” Trump ensures that his message will be talked about and debated way after the ad buy is ended.

      Lion of the Turambar

      January 4, 2016 at 12:36 pm

      • But all of the content is old and the media is already done talking about it.

        Lloyd Llewellyn

        January 4, 2016 at 2:59 pm

    • Who do you work for?

      I water my plants

      January 4, 2016 at 5:37 pm

  2. I think it’s a mistake to take their oil. It’s there’s, just keep it out of ISIS’s hands. Otherwise it’s a good ad.

    Shawn

    January 4, 2016 at 11:08 am

  3. Scott Adams has posted his analysis of the ad on his blog: http://blog.dilbert.com/post/136612798856/trumps-first-ad-master-persuader-filter

    The summary is that he thinks Trump is capable of persuading 20% of Democrats to support using this rhetoric.

    av

    January 4, 2016 at 11:31 am

  4. I don’t think that any of Trump’s video ads, including this one, have been particularly well edited. They seem a bit amateurish… almost like a parody. He should be going for epic, patriotic, Jerry Bruckheimer style ads with high production value. He certainly has the money to do it right.

    B.T.D.T.

    January 4, 2016 at 11:37 am

  5. I don’t understand how one can ban muslims from entering the US. Presumably that means people from muslim countries?

    Trump’s ideas are good in the sense that they break from leftist doctrine, but they aren’t as good as policies based on actual scientific HBD. We should be using IQ tests and tests of aggressiveness as a way to screen immigrants who are likely to harm the country or have progeny who weigh the country down.

    Lamb

    January 4, 2016 at 12:18 pm

    • It would be fairly straightforward: if you’re from a majority muslim country and aren’t provably from one of the non-muslim minorities then you’re banned. People from non-muslim countries with names like Mohammed would also be banned.

      av

      January 4, 2016 at 12:41 pm

    • C’mon now. You can’t expect even Donald Trump to boldly espouse HBD principles in a campaign ad. Hopefully, he’ll try to covertly slip HBD principles into his actual policies, but he’s not going to preach about race/IQ correlations overtly. The public just isn’t ready for that much truth just yet.

      Great Again

      January 4, 2016 at 3:45 pm

    • Non-Muslim minorities should be given their own, Western supported, safe zones. They can serve as precursors to independent, Muslim free, nations in the future while protecting them from extermination over the short term.

      But I wouldn’t allow them to immigrate. Too easy for an ISIS sympathisizer to deny they are Muslim and it’s impossible for us to validate which of them are lying.

      The Undiscovered Jew

      January 4, 2016 at 6:01 pm

    • Cultural compatibility and assimilation matters. If you want high IQ, non-violent immigration, you have Europeans, already the bedrock of the country, who have a proven ability to assimilate..

      jackmcg

      January 4, 2016 at 8:45 pm

  6. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-04/yellen-s-job-puzzle-why-are-20-somethings-retiring-

    Unemployment at 5%.

    So 40% of US adults have no job.

    Interesting.

    jjbees

    January 4, 2016 at 12:56 pm

  7. Scott Adams has been writing some really interesting stuff about Trump. Everyone should read his master persuade series, at least for entertainment.

    XVO

    January 4, 2016 at 1:15 pm

  8. One thing Trump does by his brash rhetoric is to get people in power to do things on their own. I have no doubt that individual border control employees extra careful about Islamic immigration right now.

    I also expect that Muslims everywhere are reflecting hard about themselves.

    I also imagine that Mexico is feeling the heat to do their part to control the border. Plans to increase the number of Islamic refugees would be put on ice.

    Elites everywhere are surely cooling their heels on their open borders nonsense, knowing that they are awakening serious populism.

    Dan

    January 4, 2016 at 1:29 pm

    • A mere fifteen years since Islam, as a result of 9/11, first entered the consciousness of Americans; and already there’s demand, growing more widespread every day, that its adherents be banned from so much as setting foot in the country.

      silberstreak

      January 5, 2016 at 11:33 am

  9. Trump’s biggest accomplishment is probably getting the Lion to stop talking about Mike Huckabee. 🙂 🙂

    Camlost

    January 4, 2016 at 1:38 pm

    • Huckabee accomplished that by himself.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      January 4, 2016 at 1:49 pm

    • Trump’s biggest accomplishment is probably getting the Lion to stop talking about Mike Huckabee.

      And if only for that Trump deserves a place on Mt. Rushmore.

      silberstreak

      January 5, 2016 at 11:35 am

  10. Good ad. Voting isn’t about your immediate personal life, it’s about values that transcend it: the nation, the future, freedom, etc. People who don’t understand it, shouldn’t have the right to vote. The nation and country are more important them your individual life, process this. It should be obvious. I always vote in Israel, but American candidates are phonies and traitors of their country. Finally there is a patriot running and I have a candidate in the US to vote. Feels amazing!

    Lion, you are talking like a NAM, I hope you understand this.

    I always think, like what would have happened if I’d lived in the times of Noah – would I be inside the Ark or outside? The guys outside were busy eating their sausage and being evil and not thinking about the world, and we all know how this ended. So I think everyone should be thinking if you would have made it into Noah’s Ark, and I think if you are doing the right thing today, you would have stood a chance . Trump is building the Ark, in case you were not paying attention.

    Yakov

    January 4, 2016 at 1:41 pm

  11. ” He is changing our understanding of reality by brushing aside the illusion that humans use reason to make important decisions. This extends well beyond politics. “

    True. But I’ve been promoting that concept on here for a couple of years. From one of my comments on your blog last February. https://lionoftheblogosphere.wordpress.com/2015/02/04/beliefs-about-vaccines/#comment-62819

    “Studies show people generally base their views and opinions on psychology and use intelligence to support them after the fact. This is why so few people can be persuaded to change their views. It’s because their views aren’t based on reason.”

    I actually got the idea from Thinking, Fast and Slow by Nobel Prize winning economist Daniel Kahneman. Psychological experiments support his premise. That’s why very smart, educated, wealthy, etc people can’t be assumed to be right on social or economic issues just because they’re smart. educated, wealthy, etc. That’s a problem because they arrogantly assume they are and have the influence to impose their mistakes on others. Like both the leftists and establishment have been doing for decades.

    destructure

    January 4, 2016 at 1:58 pm

  12. I think it’s a good ad. And in case you missed it, the NYT thinks ¡Jeb! can resurrect his moribund campaign by bringing Lindsey Graham on board. Double barf – ¡Jeb! has never gotten much above five percent in the polls, and Graham never much topped one percent. But count on the NYT to give good advice to Republicans. Two wrongs don’t make a right, and two losers don’t make a winner.

    Hope you had a happy new year, Lion.

    Black Death

    January 4, 2016 at 2:08 pm

  13. I’ll also note that it has now been revealed that the “border footage” seen in this ad is not from the US/Mexico border. Again, it’s all emotional appeals. As Adams said, it’s post-reason politics. I don’t think that was intended to be a compliment.

    MARTINage

    January 4, 2016 at 3:04 pm

    • Democrats have always used post-reason politics, Republicans until now haven’t been smart enough to do the same.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      January 4, 2016 at 5:10 pm

    • If only Trump’s ads could imitate the ads the Democrats market towards blacks and Hispanics; those Democrat ads brimming with regression coefficents, multiple variable economic models, and time series datasets.

      The Undiscovered Jew

      January 4, 2016 at 5:50 pm

    • Yeah it is really helping the ad get view, in that the networks are correcting the ad but they are also showing it and discussing it

      With the thoughts you'd be thinkin

      January 4, 2016 at 7:20 pm

    • “I’ll also note that it has now been revealed that the “border footage” seen in this ad is not from the US/Mexico border.”

      Well, clearly that proves that there are no border issues in America at all.

      map

      January 4, 2016 at 11:14 pm

    • …it’s all emotional appeals. As Adams said, it’s post-reason politics.

      Do you think the NY Times/New York Daily News/Huffington Post/Salon/MSNBC/MSM/Clinton/Sanders agitprop about Trump being about the rise of a Nazi/fascist/racist/dictator/KnowNothing/Japanese internment camps/get Muslims angry at us/war on women force for evil is NOT an emotional appeal????

      If you think that is all simply an appeal to “reason in politics” then you are a severely, deluded leftist or on the other hand a demoralized fan of the Bush/Graham/Kasich wing of the Republican party.

      Rifleman

      January 5, 2016 at 12:45 am

      • +1

        Curle

        January 5, 2016 at 9:35 am

      • I don’t understand. Is the argument, “well the left has lowered the bar, so let’s lower it some more?” Or “two can play at that game”? I guess I’m weird because I care more about “what is good for America.”

        MARTINage

        January 5, 2016 at 11:27 am

  14. How to “make Mexico” pay for the wall? Simple. Tax remittances.

    The figure I found quickly was that in March of 2015, an amazing $2.26 BILLION was sent from USA to Mexico by Mexicans. That’s in one month, and that doesn’t count the hordes of other foreigners. So put, say, a 20% “wall tax” on remittances (easily collected electronically and no way to avoid it). That will fully pay for the wall over time, and further be a tremendous disincentive for Mexicans to stay here in the first place. (Actually, I would tax remittances at like 80% because then why bother working here?)

    “Take their oil” simply means re-taking the territory they now occupy, which is how they got the oil in the first place. How you do that is a different story, but probably not that hard if you actually wanted to do it, versus the fake bombing “war” that Obama/Israel are waging on the force that they created in the first place. Maybe you go in jointly with Russia, or let Russia be the boots on the ground while we supply air cover. Many supposedly difficult problems are pretty easy to solve if you have the desire and the WILL to get the job done.

    Indeed, I would go in with Russia, “take the oil” and say sorry guys, you now have to pay us back for what we just did, so for the next five years (or whatever) we’re taking 50% of your oil revenue and splitting between Russia and USA for getting rid of ISIS. You’re welcome.

    peterike

    January 4, 2016 at 3:26 pm

  15. Scott Adams decided to become a cartoonist after an HR person at Pacific Bell (where he was in the IT department) told him they were looking to promote women and minorities.

    And yes trump is running a brilliant campaign. His only problem is overcoming the mental block many people have of voting for the guy from the reality show.

    DSGNTD_PLYR

    January 4, 2016 at 3:35 pm

  16. i hope trump sex scandals start coming out soon, like former mistresses, i think that might actually help his popularity. it will make him seem more alpha

    GM

    January 4, 2016 at 4:48 pm

    • Something like this?

      Glengarry

      January 5, 2016 at 6:36 am

      • Trump would counter-argue that he has cleaned up his act. Willy still engages in orgies, when Hillary is off to her campaigns.

        JS

        January 5, 2016 at 1:36 pm

  17. Has Adams written anything about maneuvering the world of big business, other than the exquisite medium of Dilbert.

    The Undiscovered Jew

    January 4, 2016 at 5:56 pm

    • I started reading “How to Fail at Almost Everything and Still Win Big: Kind of the Story of My Life” I’ll let you know how it turns out.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      January 4, 2016 at 7:36 pm

    • He’s written many, many books on this topic, including “The Dilbert Principle,” “The Joy of Work,” “Dogcart’s Top Secret Management Handbook” and the “Way of the Weasel.” These aren’t comic books, they’re just comedic non-fiction guides to office politics. They’re really funny and insightful.

      MARTINage

      January 4, 2016 at 8:20 pm

    • No greater reviewer could be asked for than the apprentice of Paul Fussell.

      The Undiscovered Jew

      January 4, 2016 at 8:32 pm

  18. I guess what Charles Cooke said in that Fox News debate with Ann Coulter was right: Trump fans will define reality around Trump.

    It’s nice that you guys are putting so much more thought and effort into making his policies make sense than he ever did.

    MARTINage

    January 4, 2016 at 7:24 pm

  19. Voting isn’t even an especially important decision. Who you vote for has no direct impact on your life.

    Who most Americans voted for (Obama) seems to have had an impact on your life, in that it has enabled you to qualify for Medicaid despite having a healthy nest egg.

    Dave Pinsen

    January 4, 2016 at 7:42 pm

  20. Nothing about reducing legal immigration. I don’t know if I’m going to vote for this guy.

    Dave

    January 4, 2016 at 7:54 pm

    • so you’re gonna vote for the candidate is tougher on immigration? Who is that exactly?

      jackmcg

      January 4, 2016 at 8:46 pm

      • I won’t vote.

        Dave

        January 5, 2016 at 3:51 pm

  21. The ad got positive reviews in Russian media. They liked beheading ISIS line. Russian media likes Trump.

    Yakov

    January 4, 2016 at 11:09 pm

  22. Reasons one shouldn’t take hyperbolic political and motivational speeches seriously.

    ‘A house divided cannot stand.’ Has he never seen a duplex?

    ‘The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.’ Or perhaps that guy pointing a guy at you. . .

    ‘All free men, wherever they may live, are citizens of Berlin.’ I’m a free man and I bet they won’t let me vote in Berlin. Probably won’t even let me live there without a special visa.

    Curle

    January 5, 2016 at 12:11 am

    • Things were said in a specific context, I think.

      Yakov

      January 5, 2016 at 7:27 am

    • Arming the Mujahideen was a great Cold War strategy which contributed to the downfall of the Soviet Union. It did eventually lead to the Taliban, but no one cared about that until after 9/11.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      January 6, 2016 at 2:13 pm


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