Lion of the Blogosphere

LA Times says “too late to stop Trump”

This week there has been a huge shift in mainstream media reporting of Trump. For months and months their take was “Trump is going to lose to some other Republican candidate, we just don’t have a logical explanation for how that’s going to happen” to now “Trump is inevitable.”

From the LA Times article:

Thursday night’s fractious presidential debate was the long Republican campaign condensed into little more than two hours: Donald Trump sailed above the other candidates, who mostly engaged in round-robin fighting that left each of them wounded and him largely unscathed.

As a result, the debate, the sixth in a nomination contest that has defied predictions, left a GOP establishment that fears disastrous repercussions from a Trump nomination no closer to finding a way to head him off, with the first balloting now a little more than two weeks away.

The remark about “disastrous repercussions” shows that the MSM fallback position is now that Trump is going to win the Republican nomination but he can’t possibly beat the Democratic nominee. I strongly disagree. Trump’s path to victory is to win the votes of everyone who voted for Romney in 2012 plus he picks up the votes of prole whites who either sat at home or voted Democratic last election, then he coasts to victory.

The MSM completely misunderstands the mindset of prole whites and swing voters. The MSM assumes that swing voters are less ideological and therefore Trump, who they perceive as more hard right than Romney, will turn off those voters. But actually, swing voters pay more attention to personality than to policy positions, and Trump has the winning personality. Plus the thing which supposedly makes him hard right is his anti-immigration position; but the majority of the electorate, especially prole whites who usually vote Democratic, agrees with Trump on this issue. Trump is actually more moderate on issues than other Republicans. He’s less committed to being against abortion than other Republicans, and he doesn’t want to eliminate affordable healthcare and go back to the pre-Obamacare mess, he wants to replace Obamacare with something better. And he was opposed to the invasion of Iraq.

* * *

I would also like to say something about Cruz being asked about his eligibility to be president. Even though many think he did a great job of answering that question, the very fact that it was asked weakens Cruz no matter how great his response.

And then later in the debate, Trump blasted Cruz with his response about New York values. In addition to Trump’s tactical victory on this issue, attacking New York was a huge strategic mistake for Cruz, because half of the MSM is based in New York City and he got them to unite around Trump.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

January 15, 2016 at 11:57 am

Posted in Politics

37 Responses

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  1. “…the MSM fallback position is now that Trump is going to win the Republican nomination but he can’t possibly beat the Democratic nominee.”

    You mean, they hope that Trump can’t possibly beat the Democratic nominee. If Hillary wins, the establishment train chugs on. If Trump wins, it’s off the rails.

    Mike Street Station

    January 15, 2016 at 12:05 pm

  2. Is anyone paying attention to Sanders pulling ahead of Hillary? Really amazing check out the realclearpolitics polls.

    Landslide for Trump.


    January 15, 2016 at 12:34 pm

  3. The fact that the ultra-liberal LA Times now regards Trump as unstoppable is huge. As you say, the MSM are New York-centric, with important outposts in places such as Washington and LA. They were at first puzzled by the Trump phenomenon. It reminds me of Pauline Kael writing in the New Yorker that she couldn’t understand how Nixon won because nobody she knew voted for him. Now that Trump seems inevitable, the MSM will focus their attacks on him, but I don’t think it will make much difference. Trump voters don’t pay much attention to the MSM, and, anyway, Trump is used to dealing with the NY media and handles them better than anyone I’ve ever seen.

    Black Death

    January 15, 2016 at 12:59 pm

  4. “In addition to Trump’s tactical victory on this issue, attacking New York was a huge strategic mistake for Cruz, because half of the MSM is based in New York City and he got them to unite around Trump.”

    You’ve completely lost me on this one, Lion. How did Trump score any victory on the “New York” issue? Everyone knows that “New York” refers mainly to Manhattan It’s like if you spoke of “Washington” values. It is assumed that you don’t mean the majority of people in DC, but people in the power structure. And Trump didn’t reveal anything here but good acting ability. Everyone knows that Cruz is aware of the handful of influential conservatives who live and work in Manhattan. My guess is that middle America knew exactly what Cruz meant. And if I’m correct, the audience booed Trump when he went after Cruz. And why would the media “uniting” around Trump help him with Republican primary voters? If anything it should take away some of his luster.

    I saw this debate as a mild positive for Cruz, a mild negative for Trump. The only other person why made any impression at all was Rubio, who is coming across as over rehearsed, robotic, and angry. Trump’s constant insistence that he will be the nominee is starting to look like adolescent boasting.


    January 15, 2016 at 1:11 pm

    • I almost replied to your comment about this on the other post. This debate was a decisive victory for Trump. On the one hand, it emphasized that Cruz was born in Canada. A fourth of Republicans and a fourth of the general electorate don’t think someone born in another country should be eligible. Even if he’s eligible they won’t vote for him. The more people who hear about Cruz being Canadian the more people won’t vote for him.

      On the other hand, the New York issue was a huge win for Trump as well. Most people despise New York. So Cruz is right as far as that goes. But Trump transcends that because he’s been a public figure for years. Saying he has “New York values” isn’t going to change anyone’s mind about him now. Especially when Trump more than anyone else gives voice to their anger about what the establishment has done to them and the country.

      Trump knocked it out of the park by refusing to even acknowledge it. In your other comment you claimed that was illogical. On the contrary, it was brilliant. If he had addressed the charge he would have had to either proclaim himself a liberal or a conservative. Either of which would have put off voters many of whom aren’t exactly sure. By not addressing the charge he avoided that.

      Plus, the more you explain and deny an allegation the weaker you look. And the more you argue against something the more people think it’s true. Trump did none of that. He brushed it aside and put the focus on Cruz attacking the people who suffered 9/11 — the one time when everyone supported New York. And, like Leon said, it pits the MSM against Cruz for attacking their values. There was a lot of strategy that went into his answer. I’ve rarely seen such a socially savvy display.


      January 16, 2016 at 1:55 pm

      • “put the focus on Cruz attacking the people who suffered 9/11”

        Cruz didn’t attack the responders of 9/11. He didn’t even attack residents of New York State or New York City proper. He attacked the Manhattan elite. Anyone outside of the NYC area (i.e. most of the country) would have understood what the phrase “New York values” referred to. What Trump did was pretend to misunderstand Cruz’s words and then attack words Cruz never used – something dishonest and sleazy. If getting away with this makes Trump skillful and brilliant, then I guess you’re right.

        As to the idea that voters won’t care whether Trump is from New York, this remains to be seen. As St. Rudy of 911 showed, getting people to cheer your speeches is not the same thing as winning their votes. And Trump is socially liberal on all issues except abortion. He can’t circumvent this by not coming out and declaring himself a social liberal. The votes aren’t stupid. Are there social conservatives in NYC? Of course. I’m one of them. But I wouldn’t have been welcome in the social circles Trump moved in for years due to my beliefs. And how many Republican party voters really believe that Trump is pro-life? If he’s as skillful as you claim then he’s likely just lying because he knows this is the one social issue that most Republicans can’t overlook?

        As I wrote before, we have Trump on tape referring to himself as having “New York values” several years ago – yes, he used that exact phrase. The media won’t focus on this because they want to bring Cruz down. One of the networks even showed this clip of Donald but then said essentially that what matters is what’s being said now – i.e. if we want to pretend that the clip doesn’t exist, then essentially it doesn’t matter if Trump said the same thing. Screw them all. I’m writing to the Cruz campaign and pledging my support. I hope the Donald joins his friend Julie-Annie in the loser’s circle of “NY liberals pretending to be Republicans and hoping the voters are stupid enough to buy it.”


        January 16, 2016 at 4:10 pm

  5. Lion, I’ve been reading Scott Adams’s posts about Trump since you linked to him recently. He seems a little weird and his series of posts about hypnosis and orgasms was retarded, but I find his argument that Trump is going to win the election in a landslide to be somewhat compelling and I’m curious as to what you think about that and his other posts on Trump.


    January 15, 2016 at 1:23 pm

  6. #NewYorkValues is blowing up on the Twitter. Trumps schlonged Cruz with that one.


    January 15, 2016 at 1:31 pm

  7. “Trump is actually more moderate on issues than other Republicans. He’s less committed to being against abortion than other Republicans, and he doesn’t want to eliminate affordable healthcare and go back to the pre-Obamacare mess…”

    The establishment GOP got what they wanted, a moderate, no labels type Republican. What are they complaining about?

    Mike Street Station

    January 15, 2016 at 1:41 pm

  8. You’re forgetting one advantage Trump enjoys – name recognition/TV star status times the huge quantity of low-information voters. He’s going to get a lot of votes from people who are incorrect about or have no idea which party he represents.


    January 15, 2016 at 2:14 pm

    • Name recognition? Tom Cruz has plenty of name recognition.

      Graf von Jung

      January 15, 2016 at 4:06 pm

  9. “The MSM completely misunderstands the mindset of prole whites”

    Yes and I can tell you why they don’t vote for Democrats. It’s because today’s Democrats are pussies. And there nothing a working man despises more than a pussy.


    January 15, 2016 at 2:36 pm

  10. Insulting New York was a horrible mistake not just for the media, but for insulting blue-collar New Yorkers and blue-collar people in adjacent states who have an affinity for New York.

    My impression of non-elite whites in the greater NYC area is that they are liberal in some ways, but also patriotic Americans in a way elites don’t understand. You see lots of American flags and support our troops stuff, and I don’t think most of those people were Romney voters. I suspect these people love Trump- he is sort of a pragmatic moderate that wins in New York- and New York State and the NYC suburbs will go for Trump, if not the city. Maybe Queens?


    January 15, 2016 at 2:44 pm

    • Queen is in the city.😉

      Overall I think you are right. A lot of blue-collar people were fond of Trump when I visited. I don’t know if he can win the state, but if he even forces the Democrats to divert resources to defending a usual stronghold it will be a powerful attack.

      I don’t know if he can win. At the very least it will be an entertaining match…


      January 16, 2016 at 7:35 pm

  11. It’s silly to say a candidate is unstoppable before even one primary or caucus has taken place.

    Mark Caplan

    January 15, 2016 at 3:05 pm

    • “Translated from the original Butthurt by Jeb Bush.”


      January 16, 2016 at 10:33 am

  12. “Trump is actually more moderate on issues than other Republicans. He’s less committed to being against abortion than other Republicans, and he doesn’t want to eliminate affordable healthcare and go back to the pre-Obamacare mess, he wants to replace Obamacare with something better. And he was opposed to the invasion of Iraq.”

    Don’t underestimate the influence of the media. People I talk to are convinced that Trump hates gay people, is racist, will outlaw abortion, and will start wars all over the world.

    Trump is going to have to speak over the media directly to people if he is going to win. We haven’t seen anything yet. There is going to a full-blown backlash against Trump. I won’t be surprised if TV stations refuse to air commercials on the grounds it is “racist.”

    Republican establishment may even try to throw the election to Hillary to stop Trump( like the Socialists did in France to stop Le Pen).


    January 15, 2016 at 4:04 pm

  13. “half of the MSM is based in New York City and he got them to unite around Trump.”

    Lets not get ahead of ourselves. Trump devotes a quarter of every stump speech to attacking the media.


    January 15, 2016 at 4:38 pm

  14. It’s amazing but Trump is building momentum in the San Francisco freak community. There’s already talk of inviting him to the Folsom Street Faire. Apparently he’s already promised to wear assless chaps. I can see him winning over even the grimmest, greenhaired Sykes.


    January 15, 2016 at 5:43 pm

  15. Today Rush said that if Trump gets 12-15% of the black vote, he wins the general election. I confess I don’t understand this claim in the context of the EC. Do Michigan, Ohio, PA, etc really flip just because of 5-7 black percentage points?

    Enlighten Me

    January 15, 2016 at 5:50 pm

    • It comes out to an extra 1% support that other Republicans don’t have, which is significant but not enough, by itself, to win the election. But in a close election it would be the difference. It could tip Florida.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      January 15, 2016 at 5:52 pm

    • Saying population X could swing the election depends heavily on where population X lives. I keep hearing about the Hispanic vote changing everything, but the Hispanic population is heavily concentrated in places like California, that no Republican is going to win anyway, or Texas, where if the entire Hispanic population of the state went against Republicans, 40% of the Anglo population would have to vote against Republicans as well before Dems could win the state.

      12% of the black vote could swing VA, OH and FL. Probably not PA or MI though, at least based on numbers from the 2012 election. Most of the Black population lives in states that are solidly behind one party or the other, where a 12% shift either way isn’t going to make any difference. Nevertheless, there’s a lot of whistling past the graveyard from the Dems on this one; I think Trump, for his immigration stances alone, is going to be a lot more popular with Black voters than they want to admit.


      January 15, 2016 at 6:50 pm

    • Also, if the Democrats are sensing that their black support is waning it will force them to pander even harder to BLM and the like. This will drive them further to the left and cause the defection of more working class whites.

      Meanwhile, Trump won’t budge at all.


      January 16, 2016 at 10:18 am

  16. Iowa is looking good. Four of the five most recent Iowa polls have Trump pulling ahead of Cruz. With luck Trump delivers the knockout blow in Iowa to capture the nomination early.

    The Undiscovered Jew

    January 15, 2016 at 5:55 pm

  17. I think Pete Wilson proved that the absolute ceiling for a Repub with the black vote is 20%. Trump, however, it unlikely to beat the anti immigration drum that much in the general election so I see him getting at most 15% (which is what Bush got) but probably less. He prob will get 25% of the Latino vote though so his overall share of the non white vote will basically be the same as Romney’s.

    The white vote is more interesting and where the election will indeed be decided. Will he even be able to hold on to all the white voters Romney got? I absolutely do believe that large numbers of WSJ Republicans will vote for Hillary, vote 3rd party or not vote. Remember that Hillary agrees with them on literally every issue.

    Basically I see all of Trumps gains with prole whites and blacks being neutralized by his losses with establishment Republicans and Latinos.

    Trump needs a terrorist attack or a recession to win, and he probably needs both.

    Lets just win the primary first.

    Otis the Sweaty

    January 15, 2016 at 6:18 pm

    • That’s why he needs Mitt Romney for VP, to hang onto the establishment Repubs who voted for him in 2012.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      January 15, 2016 at 6:29 pm

      • What is it with you and Coulter and your Romney crush? He sucks.

        Who he needs is Susana Martinez. A woman, a Latinia, a great politician, and a true “moderate” on immigration. She supports legalization but is also genuinely is pro border security and ran on a platform of denying driver’s licenses to illegals. The establishment absolutely loves her but she actually has legit crossover appeal unlike Romney, Rubio and Haley.

        Otis the Sweaty

        January 15, 2016 at 6:40 pm

      • “What is it with you and Coulter and your Romney crush? He sucks.”

        I agree. The only reason Romney didn’t get schlonged by the press over lunatic Mormon doctrine is they viewed him as a puss and the ‘most likely to lose’ among the Republican field (which is saying something). If they sense Hillary has a chance and Trump were to nominate Romney it would be wall to wall analysis about the White Horse prophecy, masonic temple rites, until the cows come home. A repeat of the Palin fiasco. Romney is a net loser. Martinez, on the other hand, sounds promising.


        January 16, 2016 at 5:16 pm

  18. Guys, who do you think is the most loathsome candidate currently running?

    I think it is absolutely O’Malley. He is essentially running on a DailyKos platform. Hillary pretends to be a true believer in open borders but at heart she is really a conservative Southern Democrat.

    I despise O’Malley to the depths of my soul.

    A very distant 2nd is Carson. I hate vanity candidates and the way he gave comfort to the anti Trump people for months.

    Otis the Sweaty

    January 15, 2016 at 7:08 pm

    • O’Malley is the worst. He is a shameless panderer. When he capitulated to Black Lives Matter it spoke volumes.


      January 16, 2016 at 7:12 am

  19. By describing it as being ‘too late’ to stop Trump they are already framing Trump’s campaign in negative terms. Perhaps they are establishing a ‘narrative’ early about how they wish his election to be seen: a mistake, which hopefully the suitably chastened electorate will rectify at the earlies possible opportunity, without things having to get too nasty.

    prolier than thou

    January 15, 2016 at 7:15 pm

  20. Do you think Trump could win New York in the general election? I would not qualify Trump’s prole support as just white. Personally, my prole job keeps me from staying up late so I hope an east coast state could settle this election.


    January 15, 2016 at 9:35 pm

    • Naah. Too much of a Democratic machine in the city.


      January 16, 2016 at 7:37 pm

  21. I’m gonna say: it was a nice display of the essential tribal nature of humanity to watch the media say ‘gee, Trump did something right’ after he defended New York.


    January 16, 2016 at 7:38 pm

  22. I’m not sure Trump is for real. He may just have thrown his hat in the ring early like he always does, and this time he said the magic word “IMMIGRATION” and just like that he was the new Ross Perot fighting the system. If he were elected he wouldn’t be a mover and shaker that takes government agencies and throws them out , saying “You’re Fired!”, but he has done something that will destroy this bullshit about democracy forever. He proved conclusively that everyone who said there wasn’t a dime’s worth of difference in the two parties was right, and that the GOP are not just losers, but paid opposition who toes the same line as the D-Party.
    Cuckservative is the new word in the consciousness of America. The race issue has been turned around and now the brown invaders who clean the McMansions of the Rich have fear in their eyes, as Americans are realizing that Europe is also being invaded, and nobody calls that wrong. All those liars and commies that said South Africa belonged to blacks because they were the majority, are now saying Whites have to be marginalized in their homelands.
    Its all bullshit, all of it. Its not about fairness, or freedom, or poverty, its just ANTI-WHITE HATRED. See you around Cuckers. I won’t talk to you now, but I’ll see you cuckers later. I’LL JUST SEE YOU AROUND.

    Joshua Sinistar

    January 18, 2016 at 9:39 am

    • “Cuckservative is the new word in the consciousness of America.”

      I think that 99% of Americans have never seen or heard that word.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      January 18, 2016 at 10:03 am

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