One day to caucus
Trump leads all polls. But will he win the caucus?
Theory 1: Trump will underperform because his supporters disproportionately never caucused before and that predicts they aren’t going to suddenly change their life-long habits. And also, they say his ground game sucks.
Theory 2: Trump will overperform because his supporters have a lot more passion and will be more willing to spend three hours on Monday evening at the caucus.
Political insiders in Iowa have a warning: Don’t underestimate Donald Trump’s ground game.
Experts inside and outside the GOP tell The Hill it would be a mistake to think Trump’s organization is operating on a wing and a prayer when it comes to getting his supporters to caucus sites around Iowa on Monday night.
“I think his campaign is better organized than people give him credit for,” said David Yepsen, the director of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University, who covered the caucuses over several decades for The Des Moines Register.
“His campaign has got a couple of good leaders in it that have done this before.”
If sales of Trump merchandise predict likelihood to caucus, then Trump has this in the bag. As reported at the NY Times:
“I’ve worked Hillary, Bernie, Cruz and Rubio — Trump outsells them 10 to 1,” said Don Kriener, a vendor from Florida. “We quit doing everyone else a week ago. Sold all our stock to the people doing Hillary and Sanders.”
In UK betting markets, Trump is a strong odds-on favorite to win the Iowa Caucus, which shows an arbitrage opportunity because his odds for winning the nomination are somewhat less and I don’t see any path for any other candidate to win the nomination if Trump wins in Iowa.