Lion of the Blogosphere

One day to caucus

Trump leads all polls. But will he win the caucus?

Theory 1: Trump will underperform because his supporters disproportionately never caucused before and that predicts they aren’t going to suddenly change their life-long habits. And also, they say his ground game sucks.

Theory 2: Trump will overperform because his supporters have a lot more passion and will be more willing to spend three hours on Monday evening at the caucus. reports today:

Political insiders in Iowa have a warning: Don’t underestimate Donald Trump’s ground game.

Experts inside and outside the GOP tell The Hill it would be a mistake to think Trump’s organization is operating on a wing and a prayer when it comes to getting his supporters to caucus sites around Iowa on Monday night.

“I think his campaign is better organized than people give him credit for,” said David Yepsen, the director of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University, who covered the caucuses over several decades for The Des Moines Register.

“His campaign has got a couple of good leaders in it that have done this before.”

If sales of Trump merchandise predict likelihood to caucus, then Trump has this in the bag. As reported at the NY Times:

“I’ve worked Hillary, Bernie, Cruz and Rubio — Trump outsells them 10 to 1,” said Don Kriener, a vendor from Florida. “We quit doing everyone else a week ago. Sold all our stock to the people doing Hillary and Sanders.”

In UK betting markets, Trump is a strong odds-on favorite to win the Iowa Caucus, which shows an arbitrage opportunity because his odds for winning the nomination are somewhat less and I don’t see any path for any other candidate to win the nomination if Trump wins in Iowa.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

January 31, 2016 at 10:23 AM

Posted in Politics

91 Responses

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  1. Trump looks set in Iowa. He leads in all of the nine most recent polls and his lead’s average is exceeds 5%.

    The more interesting question at this point Hillary – the weakest Dem general election candidate and the one I want them to nominate – drives back Sanders’ Iowa campaign. She’s retaken the lead but Sanders is close enough that he could pull the upset in a two person race.

    If she beats him in Iowa she can afford to lose New Hampshire because her firewall of black voters in South Carolina will compensate for a loss there. I suspect the black vote will hold her through the rest of the primary even if she loses Iowa, but it will be a drawn out fight.

    If Hillary locks up the nomination in the early states, I doubt there will be an FBI indictment: her classified emails almost certainly include Obama’s ‘lay down your arms’ order from the Benghazi siege. She has more than enough dirt on him to make him nix the FBI investigation.

    The Undiscovered Jew

    January 31, 2016 at 10:52 AM

    • Trump will under perform because he has stupid supporters and they wont be able to make a rational case for this candidacy in 3+ hours of internal debates with their neighbors. Its one thing to show up with a hat and a sign and laugh at Trump’s scripted laugh lines. Its another to have to give real arguments.

      Basically the only reason to support Trump is that he pisses off the media and the lefties. Beyond that there isnt much other than the entertainment factor.

      Lion of the Turambar

      January 31, 2016 at 1:20 PM

      • You are thinking of the Democratic Iowa caucus. The Republican Iowa caucus is much simpler, just register and vote once in a secret ballot.


        January 31, 2016 at 7:22 PM

      • Are people really being persuaded when they get to the caucus? I’ve never done one but I would assume that those who care enough to attend a caucus would have already made up their minds on who they are supporting before arriving.

        Dank Enlightenment

        January 31, 2016 at 7:24 PM

      • I’ve been to caucuses several times (in my state) and we operate under what appears to be the same rules as IA Rs. They all follow a predictable format. Arrive before start. Register (sometimes there’s a bit of a line). Since you arrived early, wait for start. Caucus chair gives brief opening remarks. Assemble in your precinct. PCO hands out paper slips. People fill them out and hand them in. People go home. Whole thing takes about one hour.

        Sometimes you are asked to sit around and go over a party platform (but not everyone stays for this).

        I get the impression the internal debate thing is more a D thing than an R thing or it is mostly driven by the platform process not the presidential preference process. Anyone know if I’m wrong?


        January 31, 2016 at 7:44 PM

      • The Republican Party doesn’t caucus in that manner in Iowa. Dems do though.

        K.l. Asher

        January 31, 2016 at 9:13 PM

    • Trump will under perform because he has stupid supporters and they wont be able to make a rational case for this candidacy in 3+ hours of internal debates with their neighbors.

      With all due respect to you and Iowans, I believe you’re overweighting the importance of rationality in the caucuses. Trump’s bullet points – immigration, pro-ethanol, Canada, immigration, Canada, ISIS – are as good as anything Cruz’s supporters will put forward. It’s not like Trump’s voters need to draw up a theoretical mathematics proof .

      Basically the only reason to support Trump is that he pisses off the media and the lefties. Beyond that there isnt much other than the entertainment factor.

      I’d like to not see an ISIS terrorist attack on US soil, and Trump’s Jacksonian-Geert Wilders approach to Islam – ban all Muslims from immigrating here and carpet bomb them over there untill they handover all of their oil – counts in my book as a positive reason to vote for him.

      The Undiscovered Jew

      January 31, 2016 at 7:20 PM

      • Ethanol isnt going to move the needle that much. “Capet bomb” actually comes from Cruz so NY Values Donald Trump isnt going to get to the right of Ted on that.

        “Canada” is just plain stupid since Trump’s attack is already defanged. Obama wasted no time on responding to the attacks and courts already ruled no one has standing even to sue. So the court challenges get no where. Trumps mother was born in Scotland so he has the same problem.

        Go back check the number of counties Santorum won. Trumps grandfather made his money off of whore mongering- how well is that going to go over?

        Lion of the Turambar

        February 1, 2016 at 8:16 AM

    • Obama said he never emailed her basement account. The recent cache shows 18 emails. What a liar.


      January 31, 2016 at 11:53 PM

      • As a person of color, the President was denied the opportunity to study computer science or any STEM related course work because he wasn’t encouraged in that direction, so the reason the President didn’t know which email account he contacted Hillary on?


        Mike Street Station

        February 1, 2016 at 7:24 AM

    • You’re confident Blacks will turn out, in a primary, for an old white lady?


      February 1, 2016 at 2:27 PM

  2. Big Trump win for sure. Idea rally-goers won’t caucus is silly.


    January 31, 2016 at 10:58 AM

    • Might as well go out on a limb here and say you’re right! (What have I got to lose? I guess we can all wipe the egg off each others’ faces if we are wrong.)


      January 31, 2016 at 4:51 PM

  3. Since I’ve been the naysayer all along, I’m going to say that Trump has indeed pulled off a revolution. He has a great ad out, with Ivanka telling everyone how easy it is to caucus. It’s not as difficult as I thought it was, and it’s secret. It’s easy. You just find out where to caucus, show up, register as a Republican and write in Donald J. Trump’s name. Oh yeah, you need to show gov’t ID and a USPS envelope w/a canceled stamp and your addy on it. The latter is probably beyond the capacities of some people and unconstitutional (sarcasm) but it’s the law in Iowa.

    The Trump campaign has an easy to use website and a special dedicated 515 area code # for people to call to find out their caucus place. Again, dummies won’t be able to do that.

    Caucuses, elections, etc., really discriminate against the stupid, unless you are a dead Democrat, or get literally ferried there in a van.

    Of course, I also picked the Cardinals and the Patriots, so what do I know?

    The Dems are equally interesting. I pick Sanders by a couple of points.


    January 31, 2016 at 11:10 AM

    • GOP caucuses consist of two elements, only one of which is reported by the media with any consistency. The big story is the straw poll, which, as correctly pointed out above, is conducted by secret ballot, and is actually the big draw to get people to attend.

      Unfortunately, the real business conducted is the election of delegates from the precinct to the county/legislative district convention, and these people are more likely to be the hard-core activists who will stick around to the bitter end, while the vast majority of “attendees” just show up to vote in the straw poll and leave. The disconnect is that the winner of the straw poll in the precinct might actually be shut out for delegates to the next level convention, and then to the state and national conventions as well.

      I have lived in and participated in GOP caucuses in three states, and they are all conducted the same way. If I were in charge I would require that the business of electing precinct delegates and adopting resolutions (which are then synthesized to provide a county platform which feeds the state party platform and ultimately the GOP platform adopted at the national convention) be done first before any straw ballot can be held, and no person be allowed to cast a ballot without participating the in caucus. Don’t expect that to happen anytime soon.


      January 31, 2016 at 10:34 PM

      • @sestamibi, Thank you for that clarification. I thought it was more complicated than what Ivanka said. I am sure that Trump knows about this, and if there is any funny business, he will sue the mother-fuck out of the culprits. He’s got smart Jewish legal talent and they are ruthless. They are property sharks.

        But what you have said gives me great pause. Cruz is a total Machiavellian creep, the GOPe hates Trump, and I sense major funny business.


        January 31, 2016 at 11:56 PM

      • @sestamibi, PS I don’t doubt what you say but at the convention it might not matter. As long as Trump wins the straw poll, and that is what is reported in the press, it’s a huge win for him. I honestly cannot see Trump losing the big states on Super Tuesday to any of the 7 Dwarfs.


        February 1, 2016 at 8:39 AM

  4. Check out Ivanka explaining how to caucus.What a beautiful and articulate woman. And moving on to her third child! Would provide a great contrast to Hillary and her daughter.


    January 31, 2016 at 11:43 AM

    • Whenever people doubt Trump’s temperament or capacity to be President I always point to this as Exhibit A. He has three outstandingly capable, educated and well mannered children. It is extremely hard, in this day and age, to be that rich and to raise kids that aren’t total screw-ups. I attribute it to Donald’s conservatism…he is old school and set high standards for them. It has paid off in dividends. Contrast this to your typical liberal, crunchy cuck trust-funder who is too high on mushrooms or his own self importance to get anywhere in life. The difference is night and day. There was a reason why the old aristocracy was so reactionary. They did it because it works. It preserves good families and their fortunes.


      January 31, 2016 at 2:17 PM

      • There is no difference between Chelsea Clinton and Ivanka Trump in terms of predicament and status. Both come from wealthy families with their high status jobs, and both are married to wealthy Jews. Both are Manhattan elites. Chelsea has a child and Ivanka is expecting one.

        There’s plenty of White trash voting for the Trumpster.

        Many people in Meriprolestan fail to comprehend this:


        January 31, 2016 at 2:44 PM

      • ….Meriprolestan

        Same old same old from you. You seem to have no idea what a boring, repetitive creep you are.


        January 31, 2016 at 3:58 PM

      • I agree in general about JS but his first paragraph is right on. The most significant difference in terms of children isn’t how they turned out but how many kids and grandkids Trump has compared to Clinton.

        Lloyd Llewellyn

        January 31, 2016 at 6:52 PM

      • Important difference between Chelsea and Ivanka – Chelsea didn’t convert:


        January 31, 2016 at 7:15 PM

      • She is impressive, but you’re wrong that it’s parenting. It’s good genes. Parenting has no effect. See here:


        January 31, 2016 at 8:16 PM

      • Parenting doesn’t cause high test scores, but it could be correlated with other good or bad outcomes not related to academics.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        January 31, 2016 at 9:32 PM

      • I’ve never seen real evidence that the children of the super-rich turn out to be screw ups. Maybe those (exclusively) in entertainment, though that too might just be an artifact of the media’s enthusiasm for dog-bites man stories.


        January 31, 2016 at 10:53 PM

      • She looks more distinctively Russian than I would have thought for an half Russian.

        Per the golf photo (from JS), given that Clinton reportedly has hand tremors, how does he play golf?


        January 31, 2016 at 11:10 PM

      • “Parenting doesn’t cause high test scores, but it could be correlated with other good or bad outcomes not related to academics.”

        It theoretically could, but evidence suggests it doesn’t. Pretty much all personality traits have been found to be some combination of genes and non-home environment.


        February 1, 2016 at 12:43 AM

      • “There’s plenty of White trash voting for the Trumpster.”

        Of course they are. He’s the first President in 100 years or so to give the slightest damn about them and their interests.


        February 1, 2016 at 2:31 PM

    • @JS,

      Chelsea & Ivanka are similar yes, but Trump’s sons speak well of him. We don’t know what Clinton’s sons would have been like – but we can guess, and it ain’t pretty.

      Ivanka went to Georgetown, which is a little inferior to Stanford, so Chelsea wins there, but Ivanka is on baby #3, so she’s ahead there. Also taller and better looking than Chelsea. (Chelsea’s looks have improved due to plastic surgery and nature, but she’s not as attractive as Ivanka.)

      BTW, some of the credit for the Trump offspring should go to Ivana. She is an impressive East European woman with a high IQ and good genes.

      Trump’s children = A. (We don’t know what the little one will turn out like yet.)


      January 31, 2016 at 6:44 PM

      • Ivanka transferred into and graduated from UPenn, a state school.

        (Just kidding, LOTB.)


        February 1, 2016 at 3:03 AM

      • So Trump wins based on the other children you imagine Bill and Hillary would have had? Remember Romney also had lots of successful children.

        Lloyd Llewellyn

        February 1, 2016 at 10:57 AM

      • Ivanka outclasses Chelsea in all categories as far as I can tell. She graduated from Penn which outranks Stanford due to its East Coast positioning. She is tall and thin with a naturally patrician demeanor. Chelsea looks more at home in a Little Rock trailer park like the one her step dad grew up in. Her real father is Webster Hubbell. I don’t know anything about his background but I know that her step daddy Bill was trailer trash.


        February 1, 2016 at 12:11 PM

  5. My predictions:

    >Trump will get the GOP nomination as long as he plays a defensive game and he doesn’t get blindsided by opponents rallying around one figure. The neo-cons will live with him. The pro-libertarians GOP and Dem like his drug stance and a few other things.


    >If Hilary is nominated, he will win by tsk-tsking while letting her continue to self-destruct. If he debates, being polite and sticking to policy.
    >If Sanders, he must attack him for what he is: a Communist fork-tongued traitor with blood on his hands by association.


    January 31, 2016 at 11:57 AM

    • As far as I can tell, the neocons loathe Trump more than any Republican candidate since Pat Buchanan.


      January 31, 2016 at 1:51 PM

      • Right. He’s an existential threat to their power/gravy train and they know it. If Trump did nothing he smoked these folks out as completely in bed with cheap labor globalists and entirely indifferent to the well being of the vast American middle class much less the proles getting their legs blown off in pointless wars. So what will the neocon crew do going forward, return to the D camp?

        BTW – to show how desperate the neocons are, Legal Insurrection has a blogger writing under the pseudonym Neo-neocon. This fellow’s matter of great concern? That the Ds will use eminent domain against Trump. Assuming this reflects what passes for campaign wisdom in Republican establishment circles is it any wonder the Rs have fared so badly in the last two presidential cycles?

        “Every great cause begins as a movement, becomes a business, and eventually degenerates into a racket.” Eric Hoffer


        January 31, 2016 at 11:28 PM

      • I think they hated Ron Paul more, but are more threatened by Trump because he is actually going to win.

        Otis the Sweaty

        February 1, 2016 at 12:51 AM

      • The neo-cons seem to be dithering between settling vs. organizing a Convention insurrection.


        February 1, 2016 at 5:29 AM

  6. Roger Simon in Iowa:

    “For the next seventy-two hours or so — and possibly longer because of the impending snowstorm late caucus night — Iowa is the political capital of the known world. My Uber driver from the airport — a Sudanese man who has lived in Des Moines for eight years (yes, he likes it) — said he had picked up journalists from Denmark, Brazil, Colombia and the UK in the last three hours.”

    Roger Simon is part of the PJ Media group, a bunch of libertarian/cucks. No group of people is stupider, not even libtards. He luvs the fact that he took an Uber taxi (unregulated capitalism yay!), that his driver was African, and even asked the African if he liked Iowa.


    January 31, 2016 at 12:46 PM

  7. I want Trump and Hillary established as the noms by mid February. I want Trump beating Hillary in the polls by the end of June.

    Otis the Sweaty

    January 31, 2016 at 1:17 PM

  8. The stupid Christians are trying to steal Iowa from us. We must take away the right to vote in primaries from stupid Christians!

    Otis the Sweaty

    January 31, 2016 at 1:20 PM

    • How do you plan to do this?


      January 31, 2016 at 10:18 PM

    • pass a Constitutional amendment that says that Christians aren’t allowed to vote in primaries unless they value racialism over social conservatism.

      Otis the Sweaty

      February 1, 2016 at 1:20 AM

  9. Interesting fact: Trump is two months older than Bill Clinton.


    January 31, 2016 at 1:34 PM

    • The look between those two is shocking. I don’t think that Vegan diet is working out for Bill. He looks like his own grandfather now, and he got that way since he went Vegan.

      Mike Street Station

      January 31, 2016 at 7:16 PM

      • On the other hand Trump’s billionaire prole diet is genuine, not an act to appeal to voters.

        Falwell says when he was with Trump, he wasn’t eating fancy food — but Wendy’s cheeseburgers and fries. (Have heard Trump loves fast-food)


        February 1, 2016 at 2:34 AM

      • Bill Clinton also liked fast food.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        February 1, 2016 at 8:42 AM

      • Agreed about the Vegan diet. Bill looks gaunt now, and it seems to have sapped his charisma as well. He has been a total non-factor on the campaign trail.

        Dave Pinsen

        February 1, 2016 at 2:36 AM

      • I think I know about this a bit. I’ll be 77 in two months, my parents both died at 92 and I still jog though not as fast as before. When they ask I say to my friends that you have to choose your parents carefully and drink lots of red wine, which I have done daily since I was 12. I still remember my cousins and I drinking my big family’s lunch and dinner leftover wine.


        February 1, 2016 at 3:03 PM

      • On the other hand Trump’s billionaire prole diet is genuine, not an act to appeal to voters.

        Wendy’s is the best of the national fast-food chain burgers, by far. Also, when you’re barnstorming the country, there aren’t always fancy restaurants available or convenient.

        Dave Pinsen

        February 1, 2016 at 6:59 PM

  10. A few days ago I would have said that Cruz still had the edge and would win Iowa. Not now. The misleading Voter Registration propaganda that the Cruz campaign sent has backfired big time. If you are looking for evangelical votes displaying a lack of integrity is not a good strategy.

    Trump will win the Iowa Caucus but it will be close. Look for Marco Rubio to do better than expected too, perhaps nipping at Cruz’s heels. He has been campaigning hard there and has gotten some momentum. Say what you will about Rubio’s lack of gravitas…he is likeable and a great natural politician. Certainly more likeable than Ted Cruz.


    January 31, 2016 at 2:06 PM

    • I used to like Ted Cruz a year ago and I really wanted to like him for the elections, but he’s the worst kind of Machiavellian character and his father is a Cuban snake oil salesman with his Dominionist “anointed kings” and “wealth transfer” religious garbage. To say nothing about his wife Heidi’s Goldman Sachs/American Union garbage.


      February 1, 2016 at 3:11 PM

  11. OT, no mention of race or religion. convenient.

    “After I Lived in Norway, America Felt Backward. Here’s Why.”


    January 31, 2016 at 2:47 PM

    • Liberalism tend to be results-oriented. The look at a happy place like Sweden, where government largesse works, but don’t see the underlying values that Swedes exemplify which allow it to be a reality – high child investment, low criminality, and a commitment to industriousness and not taking advantage of those welfare systems.


      January 31, 2016 at 3:17 PM

      • Smart blacks will tell you that the perpetual ghetto exists, because blacks are less caring of their own, and not because of the fault of White man.


        January 31, 2016 at 4:25 PM

      • True. Ben Franklin once said that only a virtuous people can be free. Liberals always think that it is policy that makes a difference. In reality it is the quality of the citizenry that makes all the difference. That quality comes from culture, the evolution of folkways over thousands of years. You could swap out Zimbabwe with native Swedes and within a generation the entire country, if not the region, would be dramatically transformed for the better. Infrastructure would be built, civil society would improve and rule of law would be adhered to. If you supplanted the native population of Zimbabwe into Sweden the nation would be impoverished and destroyed within the same generation. Of course, progressives would claim that this is due to the magic of “white privilege” which is a result of being beneficiaries of abundant resources. Pay no attention to the fact that Africa has an exponentially higher amount of natural resources than the sub-Arctic tundra of Scandinavia. The only logical answer is HBD.


        January 31, 2016 at 5:00 PM

      • It is true that the quality of the citizenry matters but even in America if you had social-democratic policies the productive parts of the population would do even better and there would be fewer problems from the more troublesome and criminal parts of the population.


        January 31, 2016 at 6:26 PM

      • “The central conservative truth is that it is culture, not politics, that determines the success of a society. The central liberal truth is that politics can change a culture and save it from itself.”

        -Daniel Patrick Moynihan.

        Moynihan is right and the governments effect on culture is not just limited to immigration. It’s worth noting that Europeans tried to swap out the native populations in sub saharan Africa but it failed miserably because of the disease burden of living there. It’s a mistake to assume that just because say, Harlem, is a really wonderful place in almost every way except for the people that live there, that it’s also the case everywhere black people live.

        Lloyd Llewellyn

        January 31, 2016 at 7:04 PM

      • Oy vey. You can’t point to a single human enterprise that has failed to produce results more consistently than liberalism — and yet idiots still say things like “Liberalism tend to be results-oriented”.

        Liberalism is the opposite of results-oriented. It is failure-oriented. It requires that you ignore results and keep putting resources into activities that are obviously failing. And as they say, to keep doing something that isn’t working is the very definition of insanity.


        February 1, 2016 at 1:28 PM

    • “After I Lived in Zimbabwe, America Felt Backward. Here’s Why…”


      January 31, 2016 at 6:05 PM

  12. OT Lion, but your girl Carly Rae Jepson is starring in a production of Grease, which is going to be broadcast live on Fox tonight.

    Dave Pinsen

    January 31, 2016 at 6:38 PM

  13. Just another note: I’ve read that there might be a blizzard.

    And there’s a lot of dirty about Trump’s private life that is still waiting to be dug up.

    You never know.


    January 31, 2016 at 6:48 PM

    • Trump has been in the spotlight for 35+ years, and has had well-funded (100s of millions of dollars) opponents for 7 months now. I’d think any missing dirt would already have been dug up.

      Dave Pinsen

      January 31, 2016 at 10:37 PM

    • I don’t think he raped anyone.


      January 31, 2016 at 10:46 PM

  14. I still stick with Theory 1, Trump loses Iowa because the added difficulty of the caucus system run by people who are predisposed to sabotage a Trump showing. However I don’t think it matters in the long run, since he’s so far ahead in the rest of the country it would take some massive change of course for him to lose.

    Of course if he does win Iowa, that’s just icing on the cake. I will love the salty tears of the GOPe on TV Tuesday as they try to explain how a Trump win still means that Jeb or Rubio has a chance to win.

    Mike Street Station

    January 31, 2016 at 7:20 PM

  15. Lion, you should use your massive influence to give Trump this piece of advice to use in the general election (assuming Hillary gets the Democratic nom).

    He should beat the drum of Hillary’s Iraq War vote, and say he never would have voted for the war because it was a “bad deal.”

    (Using Scott Adams’ “Master Persuader” theory, this will create the maximum paths to victory for Trump, while minimizing his chances for failure: If Hillary points to her experience in foreign policy, Trump can point to that Iraq War vote; he can say that her hawkishness in voting for the war showed poor judgment; he can say that as a businessman, he knows a “bad deal” when he sees one, etc etc)

    James Carville once famously advised Bill Clinton to redirect every question back to the economy. (“It’s the economy, stupid.”) Hillary will no doubt use this tactic in the general election (for her, it will be that she has foreign policy experience, while Trump has none) and every time she does it, Trump can hit her with that Iraq War vote, and argue what a terrible “Dealmaker in Chief” she would be.


    January 31, 2016 at 8:09 PM

    • Or the disastrous stupidity in Libya. “We came, we saw, he died (cackle).” And now Europe is getting swarmed.


      February 1, 2016 at 6:13 AM

    • He should also just say that if foreign policy experience then she is saying that the American people are idiots for not electing a former Secretary of State since James Buchanan (who he can point out is generally regarded as one of if not the worst presidents in history).

      Lloyd Llewellyn

      February 1, 2016 at 7:06 AM

  16. Trump’s more intellectual internet boosters tend to assume all Trump supporters are exactly like them. I.e.; they see the candidate as some sort of revolutionary game-changing political figure who must be elected at all costs.

    My impression is that a lot of Trump’s real-world supporters are low information proles who like his rhetoric and his tv series but can’t be counted on for much because they don’t take politics especially seriously, and thus don’t have the sort of intensity of motive that comes with understanding how high the stakes are.

    If he wins Iowa, I’ll second-guess a lot of my assumptions, but I do get the impression Trump’s support is fairly superficial, in large part because the candidate himself is very superficial.


    January 31, 2016 at 8:35 PM

    • My impression is that a lot of Trump’s real-world supporters are low information proles who like his rhetoric and his tv series but can’t be counted on for much because they don’t take politics especially seriously, and thus don’t have the sort of intensity of motive that comes with understanding how high the stakes are.

      White proles will show up to the polls better than they did for Romney, though. They may not be bright enough to see the ramifications of non-campaign issues like what Obama has done with the Supreme Court, Military, Justice Dept, etc. but they’re more up in arms than they were in the prior two elections.

      That’s the only major goal, along with having Trump peel off some black and Hispanic votes (especially if boring Bernie is the candidate) This talk of Trump winning 50 states is premature though, let’s just have him hold the current Republican states and win over the rust belt and Great Lakes where Romney failed.


      January 31, 2016 at 9:50 PM

      • I meant he’ll win all 50 states in the primary.

        Otis the Sweaty

        February 1, 2016 at 12:53 AM

      • I think the point is more that white proles don’t vote *because* they are white proles, not because they lack motivation. For white proles to come out in droves they’d have to feel motivated about politics, and obliviousness to politics, even political issues that should be very important to them, is a defining quality of proledom.


        February 1, 2016 at 10:33 AM

    • People who get their info from mainstream media are the new low-information voters. See: every other candidates voters.

      I’d say Trump has some low-info reality TV people, but his supporters that you’ll find on the internet are some of the highest information voters around.


      February 1, 2016 at 12:08 PM

    • Nobody in this country, Democrat or Republican, can get elected without the support of low information proles. Prole votes count exactly the same as the votes of haughty intellectuals, and there are a lot more proles out there.


      February 1, 2016 at 1:22 PM

    • I don’t think his intellectual followers see him this way at all. From the beginning I saw him as the last hope for this country to change course away from the European cliff. The only difference between the Dem and Rep establishments is the speed downhill.


      February 1, 2016 at 4:37 PM

  17. Most of Donald trumps supporters are low information and low education. They’re easily fooled by a charlatan with no conservative principles and the bullying tactics of a teenage girl. He’s never building a wall and I’m sure his family is having a great laugh at the morons who are supporting him. But lion, who claims a top 1% iq, has no excuse to support him.


    January 31, 2016 at 9:57 PM

    • He’ll build a wall. It’s not rocket science, it’s just building stuff, which Trump is good at.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      January 31, 2016 at 11:45 PM

      • He definitely could build a wall but theres a real possibility that Jack is right and that he’s a Lonesome Rhodes figure secretly laughing at his supporters for being dupes.

        Lloyd Llewellyn

        February 1, 2016 at 7:08 AM

      • Even if Trump is laughing at the dupes, he’s still the best candidate. That’s how broken things are.


        February 1, 2016 at 12:00 PM

    • Trump’s stance on immigration, his ability to make sanctimonious liberals hysterical and his potential to significantly disrupt the political landscape are all great reasons for high IQ people to support Trump.


      January 31, 2016 at 11:47 PM

    • Teenage girls often get their way.


      February 1, 2016 at 12:56 AM

    • Why do people think he won’t or can’t build a wall?

      A fence already passed, a Wall with the kind of mandate a Trump election would bring would pass just as easily. Plus Trump gets to throw a nice contract to some of his construction buddies. And delivering on the promise is a massive step towards re-election.

      What about it is so hard to believe?


      February 1, 2016 at 12:05 PM

      • You forgot to add that Mexico is really going to pay for it. As Trump says, it’s easy but the stupid politicians can’t see why.


        February 1, 2016 at 4:49 PM

  18. “I don’t see any path for any other candidate to win the nomination if Trump wins in Iowa.”

    Easy, it’s the delegates who ultimately pick the nominee. In Iowa, delegates are selected by a very Byzantine process, with the result that Ron Paul was able to capture a majority of the delegates despite coming in third in 2012. In New Hampshire, the delegates are allocated by proportional representation with a 10% threshold, if they vote according to the current Real Clear Politics average Trump will win just under half of the delegates, with the remainder going to Kasich, Cruz, and Bush. The establishment is going to do everything it can to stop him, so Trump’s victory is far from assured.


    January 31, 2016 at 11:03 PM

  19. Trump should be getting another huge bump when BLM starts to embarrass Bernie and Clinton later in the year.

    Iowa is too far for them to drive for now.


    January 31, 2016 at 11:17 PM

  20. I was reading in the Harvard Crimson that not a single member of the Harvard Republican Club was for Trump. They’re split between Jeb and Rubio.


    February 1, 2016 at 8:48 AM

  21. Call me a Doubting Thomas or a Nattering Nabob of Negativism, but I’ll believe in the Second Coming when I see it. Until then, I’ll assume America’s future is the same as South Africa’s present.

    Mark Caplan

    February 1, 2016 at 9:30 AM

  22. “I was reading in the Harvard Crimson that not a single member of the Harvard Republican Club was for Trump. They’re split between Jeb and Rubio.”

    The Khmer Rouge killed anyone who wore glasses or had un-calloused hands. I’m beginning to see their point.


    February 1, 2016 at 11:20 AM

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