Lion of the Blogosphere

Caucus live-blogging

7:56 PM CNN reports massive turnout, and a high percentage of first-time caucus-goers. Trump’s supporters are turning out!

7:58 Also, a lot of people changing party affiliation. Those are also Trump supporters.

8:00 Democratic caucuses also have massive turnout and new caucus goers. That bodes well for Bernie Sanders.

8:02 Entrance poll shows that 43% of Republicans are first-time caucus goers, up from 38% in 2012.

8:33 More reports of very crowded caucuses on ABC News. I predict a big Trump victory based on this.

8:59 Cruz leading Trump 1.6 points in early returns. This is a real nail-biter. However Clinton seems to be trouncing Bernie.

9:10 15% reporting, Cruz leads by 2.5 points. Not good for Trump.

9:18 Cruz 2.9 point lead with 22% reporting. We can only hope that late-reporting caucus locations are more favorable for Trump.

Early-reporting locations are places with fewer voters, so remember that 22% of locations is significantly less than 22% of the vote, it’s more like 10% of the vote.

9:32 Cruz 3.1 points lead with 25% reporting. If Trump loses, despite leading in all polls, the reason is a ground game failure on the part of Trump.

Also, the entrance polls indicate that last-minute deciders disproportionately decided for Cruz and Rubio.

9:38 Cruz has 3.6 point lead with 47% reporting. Not good for Trump.

9:47 Nate Cohn at the NYT says “At the moment, it’s pretty easy to imagine a scenario that few people talked about in the run-up to the caucuses: a very high turnout, and a Trump defeat.”

10:00 At least we can say that the Republican who wins Iowa usually does NOT win the nomination. And Trump has a huge lead in NH polls, which is a regular primary and not a weird caucus thing.

10:22 Rubio keeps getting closer to Trump. If Rubio somehow catches second place, this night will be a disaster for Trump. Rubio’s strong showing is still a disaster, it will force out BushChristieKasich really quickly.

It pisses me off that the GOP establishment is gloating right now.

10:29 Huckabee dropped out.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 1, 2016 at 7:57 pm

Posted in Politics

57 Responses

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  1. according to the entrance polls those under 35 are breaking for Trump at 78%. Stupid older voters want someone who seems “Presidential”. What a bunch of losers.

    Otis the Sweaty

    February 1, 2016 at 8:30 pm

    • Trump seems much more Presidential than Cruz or Rubio.


      February 1, 2016 at 8:44 pm

    • I just saw something on CSBN – Cruz at 28%, Trump at 24%. But the night is young.


      February 1, 2016 at 9:06 pm

  2. Don’t get me wrong — I want to believe! But 43% is just slightly up from 38% in 2012 with no Trump.


    February 1, 2016 at 8:43 pm

  3. I’m surprised the libs aren’t out there complaining that it’s not called a vaginus.


    February 1, 2016 at 8:50 pm

  4. Glad Bernie is done. Can’t stand his supporters.

    If Trump wins, it will be because so many stupid Christians decided to stay with idiot Ben Carson. IA rightfully would have gone to Cruz but the stupid Christians made Trump competitive because of their love for their magical Negro. Pathetic.

    Otis the Sweaty

    February 1, 2016 at 9:07 pm

    • Sanders has an 18 point lead in New Hampshire. Seems a bit early to say he’s done.

      Dave Pinsen

      February 1, 2016 at 9:57 pm

    • Sanders has an 18 point lead in New Hampshire. Seems a bit early to say he’s done.

      South Carolina with its large black Democrat electorate will break the tie between Hillary and Sanders in favor of Hillary.

      The Undiscovered Jew

      February 1, 2016 at 10:05 pm

  5. CNN reports massive turnout

    It is over. Trump has won Iowa.

    The only question remaining is whether Iowa Democrats were stupid enough to vote for Hillary. Keep your fingers crossed that they did.

    The Undiscovered Jew

    February 1, 2016 at 9:11 pm

    • Yep, it’s OVER. OMG over over!! With the votes not yet counted, and the guy you say has “won” losing substantially. Well observed.

      And why is an increase from 38 pct to 43 pct seen as some “massive” increase?

      It’s past your bedtime, kids. All of you.


      February 1, 2016 at 10:03 pm

    • Where do you get that from? Read the Des Moines Register. Cruz has won.


      February 1, 2016 at 10:06 pm

    • Yep, it’s OVER. OMG over over!! With the votes not yet counted, and the guy you say has “won” losing substantially. Well observed.

      I thought actual votes weren’t coming in till an hour later. When I saw that turnout was higher than expected I assumed that would break in Trump’s favor.

      But no matter, on to New Hampshire.

      The Undiscovered Jew

      February 1, 2016 at 10:33 pm

  6. Big story seems to be Rubio’s strength. Bad news for Trump to create a Shelling Point for establishment vote this early.


    February 1, 2016 at 9:23 pm

  7. Cruz is taking the lead early because evangelicals come out early. In fact, it’s already past their bedtime. Trump will surge in the home stretch.


    February 1, 2016 at 9:24 pm

    • Boy, a lot of crow being eaten tonight. With some luck, though Trump can hold onto second place.


      February 1, 2016 at 10:36 pm

  8. How much of a dupe do you have to be to fall for the likes of Cruz? No one is worse than Cruz.


    February 1, 2016 at 9:29 pm

  9. Betfair just flipped! Early today the implied probability was 60% Trump 35% Cruz. Now it’s 51% Cruz.


    Also, Steve Deace who is uncannily good at calling Iowa, called for Cruz to win by 5% last night.

    Mercy Vetsel (@MercyVetsel)

    February 1, 2016 at 9:30 pm

    • Scratch that. It’s now 72% probability for Cruz and 26% for Trump. Hopefully this means voters are looking at Trump the way that I do. Never liked him because he’s a buffoon with no class BUT I loved the way he man-handled the PC crowd.

      But even epic and awesome mouthing off isn’t enough to make someone president.


      Mercy Vetsel (@MercyVetsel)

      February 1, 2016 at 9:51 pm

  10. Steve Deace is gay

    Even so, it seems like Cruz has got this. Trump won most Evangelicals but the establishment types rallied to Cruz.

    Otis the Sweaty

    February 1, 2016 at 9:44 pm

    • > OTS: establishment types rallied to Cruz.
      > LionOfBS: It pisses me off that the GOP establishment is gloating right now.

      Are you guys out of your minds? The establishment loathes Cruz. They wanted Trump to win to take out Cruz so that their adorable little flack — Marco can win.

      I have mixed thoughts on Rubio winning second. If Trump implodes quickly then Cruz is the only anti-amnesty guy standing but now there will be a lot of pressure on Bush, Kasich and Christie to bow out to clear the way for their new little pet to stand as the sole establishment guy against a fractured anti-amnesty field.

      I can’t stand Rubio but Trump would be a disaster. I don’t trust him on immigration. I don’t subscribe to Fox News, but listening to their free audio on Roku if I hear one more person say “and a STROOOOONG third place finish for Rubio.”


  11. Reagan lost Iowa. Huckabee won it. Iowa Republicans are real stupid.


    February 1, 2016 at 9:52 pm

    • Agreed. There is absolutely ZERO about Ted Cruz that is populist.


      February 1, 2016 at 10:12 pm

      • Wow, so the real world (or part of it) isn’t alt-right. Hmmmmm……So in at least part of the real world there hasn’t been the revolution part of the blogging world says there is. And old-fashioned conservatism has some life.

        There’s no way to spin this – it really isn’t good. Trump has lost a little swagger. And he should have shown up for that debate.


        February 1, 2016 at 10:32 pm

  12. Higher turnout didn’t break out as predicted by just about every poll. Very well then, on to NH and SC.

    The Undiscovered Jew

    February 1, 2016 at 10:03 pm

  13. I’ve never been so disappointed by a causus/primary result in my life.


    February 1, 2016 at 10:03 pm

  14. I’m not surprised Trump voters didn’t show up for a caucus. We will see in New Hampshire if they will show up for a primary.

    By the way, Trump could finish 3rd. Rubio might catch him.


    February 1, 2016 at 10:17 pm

  15. Cruz winning is a good thing. Yes he was foolishly arrogant in his youth, but he has repented: and, as de Nerval said of his pet lobster, he knows the secrets of the seas. Also, after 20 years in the military many of my favorite memories are of the guys who knew how to piss off the most entitled officers without getting busted. The only guy who reminds me of guys like that is Cruz. Plus he is pro-life which is the sine qua non of any politician today to keep things from getting worse.

    howitzer daniel

    February 1, 2016 at 10:28 pm

    • How does poor minorities not being allowed to have abortions keep things from getting worse?

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      February 1, 2016 at 11:30 pm

      • A pro-life society is a higher-trust society, one with happier young people making fewer bad and irreversible choices, pro-life choices make God happy, when God is happy everybody is happier.

        howitzer daniel

        February 2, 2016 at 2:28 am

      • Sweden is pro-choice and they were very happy until they started letting in pro-life muslims.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        February 2, 2016 at 9:46 am

      • Muslims, qua Muslims, are not as “pro-life” as you seem to think; on the religious and natural-law question of the sinfulness of abortion, the average Muslim is as mistaken as the average main-stream Protestant. And Sweden’s happiness levels have lots to do with generations of high-trust pro-life ancestors creating a high-trust society for their happy descendants . The goal for Americans – minority Americans and non-minority Americans – is to create that high-trust future for our descendants. Natural law says the way to get there is to work for justice and mercy and to always protect the innocent. Aborting innocent children does not and cannot help us get there.

        howitzer daniel

        February 2, 2016 at 9:58 pm

  16. This is what I get for spending too much time at alt-right blogs… a distorted view of reality.

    Rubio in second? Where did that come from?


    February 1, 2016 at 10:29 pm

  17. If there are any skeleton’s in Rubio’s closet (sex scandals, questionable loans), Trump should hit him on it now. I doubt Cruz will fare as well in New Hampshire as well as he did in Iowa, so the target should be R,ubio.

    The Undiscovered Jew

    February 1, 2016 at 10:35 pm

  18. “It pisses me off that the GOP establishment is gloating right now.”

    Then I won’t piss you off any more by adding to the gloating chorus! But can we all agree that I was right about a fraction of the electorate simply using an “unlikely” candidate for cheap political thrills and claiming that he’s their guy when they know deep down that they aren’t going to vote for this candidate? It doesn’t have to be a large percentage of the electorate that does this. Someone “ahead” by 7-8 points might actually be behind by 5 or 4 points due to this factor. Pollsters can’t account for this phenomenon because no voter will admit that he’s using a candidate.


    February 1, 2016 at 10:37 pm

    • No, this was all about ground game.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      February 1, 2016 at 11:31 pm

      • Why would ground game matter? There really isn’t another candidate like Trump. If his positions are what so many voters want then that alone should serve as an incentive for them to caucus. Why do they need to be recruited so vigorously? And I though that an increased turnout was supposed to work to Trump’s advantage. First-time voting was up since the last election’s caucuses, but not enough to help Trump win. Also, the later-deciders went for Cruz and Rubio. This last outcome was completely predictable. Voters who were going to vote for such an out of the ordinary candidate would have known long before the last day.

        But Trump is not out of the running by any means. What he needs to do now is lower expectations and run a more conventional type of campaign. His concession speech tonight was perfect and was a step in the right direction for him.


        February 2, 2016 at 12:22 am

  19. Trump held on to 2nd. The establishment consolidated at 35%.

    I’m disappointed with the result but it wasn’t a disaster. Trump only underperformed his poll numbers by 4 points and IA is a tough state for him as it is filled with stupid Christians. The establishment will consolidate around Rubio now so Trump and Rubio can start going head to head.

    Otis the Sweaty

    February 1, 2016 at 10:41 pm

  20. Republicans doing what they do best: snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.


    February 1, 2016 at 10:46 pm

  21. If Cruz gets the nomination, Clinton will be president. Only Trump can win in the general.


    February 1, 2016 at 10:57 pm

    • Right, there’s no way Cruz can win the general election. He’s not likeable.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      February 1, 2016 at 11:32 pm

      • Lion, agreed. Not counting Cruz out, but unlike Trump he doesn’t play with a lot of the pro-libertarian center or the left.


        February 2, 2016 at 4:44 am

      • Trump appears to be a stronger candidate than Cruz in the general election. Trump is stronger among Reagan democrats, independents, blacks and “apolitical” types. On the negative side, how many Cruz supporters would stay home if Trump was the nominee?

        Lewis Medlock

        February 2, 2016 at 10:51 am

  22. Trump gave a nice concession speech. On to New Hampshire.

    Andrew E.

    February 1, 2016 at 10:58 pm

  23. Trump finished a few percentage points lower than his polls, which if you looked at things objectively is something you should have expected given the format was a caucus and not a primary. So people need to chill out with all the gloom and doom. The emergence of Rubio might actually be a good thing for Trump because I don’t think that guy really plays well outside the rubes in corn country and he might torpedo Kasich (a stronger threat to Trump long term) in New Hampshire.


    February 1, 2016 at 11:12 pm

    • A nearly 10 point swing (Trump +5 in polling to Cruz +4 in voting) is more than anybody was expecting, or had reason to expect. That happened even though turnout was 40% higher than any previous Iowa Republican caucus, and high turnout was supposed to benefit Trump.


      February 1, 2016 at 11:52 pm

  24. The key take away here is that Iowa is the big loser tonight.

    See what happens with those ethanol subsides in a Trump administration.


    February 1, 2016 at 11:25 pm

    • Iowa Republicans have chosen a loser every four years for a while now. Why not continue the tradition?


      February 1, 2016 at 11:53 pm

  25. It looks like Trump’s idea that you could run a presidential campaign on the cheap while neglecting campaign nitty gritty like ground game organization has been tested and failed. Campaign consultants are mostly hucksters, but there are some reasons why they exist. I was scoffing at the Cruz beancounters before, but results don’t lie: he turned a 5-point deficit in polling into a 5-point victory on voting day. If Trump is wise he’ll learn from this and make corrections.

    But it’s a blow. Trump supporters had been buoying themselves with the belief that his poll numbers actually understated his support. Not unreasonable, since the MSM blowback against him has been fierce and if a “shy Tory” effect was real it would apply to Trump if anybody. Tonight is a rude slap in the face to that. Trump is going to be dogged all week until New Hampshire by the allegations that his numbers are mere puffs of air, and perhaps all election if there continues to be a wrong-way mismatch between his polling and actual voting returns. This is bad when national polling shows him losing or only tenuously beating Clinton, and losing soundly to Sanders. The general election polls will count more in the minds of primary voters as the race goes on, which brings us to ….

    Rubio, and the establishment’s hidden strength. However he finishes, 3rd or 2nd, this is bad, bad. The most puzzling feature all year has been the GOPe’s inability to coalesce around a challenge to the insurgents. The establishment consultants have looked hapless and disorganized, and this has undoubtedly boosted Trump by making him look like a relatively stable rock in an agitated sea. But the Iowan voters stepped up where the establishment consultants couldn’t. Support for Bush, Christie, Kasich and the rest collapsed into the low single digits, and Rubio did vastly better than any poll I know of showed him doing. If there’s a silent majority out there, Trump got no profit from it tonight: Rubio, of all people, got the biggest swell. Everybody was sticking in the race because they all thought they had a chance at becoming the establishment choice, but I now expect all except Rubio and Kasich to drop out in between today and the New Hampshire primary.

    So except for the vanity show of Kasich in New Hampshire, it’s going to be a 3-man race from now on, with everyone looking enhanced and rising except for Donald Trump. Skipping the last debate now looks like a huge mistake, this year’s equivalent of Romney coasting through his last debate with Obama because he thought he had the election wrapped up, when what he really needed to do was beat BHO soundly because the lead he was taking for granted wasn’t real. In fact, when the Fox debate didn’t suffer in the ratings like Trump claimed it would and instead beat Trump’s rally soundly, that should have been a wakeup call that Trump’s assumptions about the state of play in Iowa were unsound.


    February 1, 2016 at 11:33 pm

  26. Caucuses are weird. You’re face to face, yelling at people to vote for your guy. Being for Trump opens you up to a lifetime of slime about your raycis beliefs. He will exceed expectations in the privacy of the voting booth. But this slight swoon may have been inevitable.


    February 1, 2016 at 11:37 pm

    • No, they changed that on the GOP side. It’s all secret ballot now.

      You do need to listen to statements from all sides, I believe, but there is no “you need to say your vote out loud” in the GOP Iowa caucus. You can vote in secret, just like real primaries and GE voting.

      Tonight was just about ground game – Cruz has experienced precinct captains in every area, and used targeted mailings and phone calls with sophisticated lists bouyed by tech, in the Obama manner. As Richard properly pointed out above, this is proof that ground game and procedural nuts and bolts matter.

      Trump is still alive, though. Still favored by double digits in the next two states. If he wins those, Trump still has to be favored (though it’s a live race that could go all summer).


      February 2, 2016 at 12:07 am

  27. The important takeaway is that Trump strongly underperformed his polls.

    In 2008, the winner was Huckabee, but McCain (eventual winner) and Romney both performed in line with their polls.

    In 2012, Santorum won Iowa, true, but Romney, the eventual winner, again performed in line with his polls.

    Failure to match the expectations of his polls is support for the thesis that Trump supporters are non-voters, and/or that the Trump’s “ground game” is poorly organized.

    In any event, Lion was correct the first time when he said that GWB will probably be the last Republican President. The Presidency, at this point, is the Democrats’ to lose. They have to experience a Nixon-sized collapse in order to risk losing it. Otherwise, there is nothing the Republicans can do to take it. Every 4 years, the ever-darkening electorate drifts deeper into their camp. Trump shifting the black electorate to historical levels, say, 10% Republican support instead of 5%, would not be enough to fight the tide.

    There seems to be an awful lot of wishful thinking about Trump’s chances on the alt right. This strikes me as hypocritical when the alt right proclaims itself a bastion against the endless wishful thinking about human relations that pervades leftist/cuck thinking.


    February 1, 2016 at 11:49 pm

    • The Presidency, at this point, is the Democrats’

      That assumes Democrats don’t implode with white voters.

      The Republicans need to add only 4 extra points to Mitt Romney’s 61% of the white vote to hold the White House consistently for the next few decades.

      The Undiscovered Jew

      February 2, 2016 at 12:09 am

    • demographics is everything, and you might be right. I haven’t seen any in depth analysis of who the potential voters look like.


      February 2, 2016 at 12:47 am

    • “In any event, Lion was correct the first time when he said that GWB will probably be the last Republican President.”

      As Chuck Todd said on election night in 2012, the demographic time bomb finally went off. Republicans are out of the President business, all things being equal, for our lifetimes. It would take something radical to shake that, like a Trump candidacy. He is the Republican Hail Mary pass. Unfortunately the GOPe is too stupid to realize it.

      Mike Street Station

      February 2, 2016 at 6:33 am

  28. Iowa matters because it changes the narrative. Everyone knew Romney was going to win in 2012, so who cares that Santorum won Iowa. This race has been very up in the air, so the early states are critical in giving voters a sense of their skill and electability.

    Trump was supposed to be invincible. It was weird seeing him in a state of humility and defeat. That image of him conceding was jarring. I think it could be powerful.


    February 1, 2016 at 11:59 pm

  29. “At least we can say that the Republican who wins Iowa usually does NOT win the nomination.”

    That’s true, just ask Presidents Santorum and Huckabee.

    Mike Street Station

    February 2, 2016 at 6:30 am

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