Lion of the Blogosphere

Who will drop out next?

Rand Paul will never drop out, his candidacy has always been a protest candidacy designed to annoy other Republicans.

Carson must know that he needed to win in Iowa to have a chance. I’m not sure if he’s motivated by a genuine desire to win, or if his candidacy is also a protest candidacy like Paul.

There’s no logical reason why Fiorina is still running, but she’s a sociopath and I’m not sure how that affects her decision.

I don’t see Kasich dropping out before NH where he hopes he can pull an upset victory.

Bush will be facing heavy GOPe pressure to drop out but I think he wants to hang in there in hope that he can pull an upset victory in New Hampshire.

Christie will be facing heavy GOPe pressure to drop out but I think he wants to hang in there in hope that he can pull an upset victory in New Hampshire.

Conclusion: only Carson and Fiorina are likely to drop out before New Hampshire. BushKasichChristie are likely to drop out if they do poorly in New Hampshire (worse than third place).

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Santorum: I forgot that he’s even running. Why hasn’t he dropped out yet?

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 2, 2016 at 12:36 am

Posted in Politics

26 Responses

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  1. Glad Huckabee dropped out. Santorum and Carson should follow suit – and then endorse Cruz.


    February 2, 2016 at 1:01 am

  2. Fiorina can stay in, and be hoped to be picked for VP. The Republican presidential nominee may want a woman VP who is already primary tested and willing to attack Hillary as a lousy woman candidate.

    George AngryDad

    February 2, 2016 at 1:18 am

    • Because a female VP helped McCain and Mondale so much.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      February 2, 2016 at 1:24 am

      • Agreed. There is no common bond of sisterhood across women. Instead, there’s an ideology that suppresses and shames natural female cattiness. When that pent-up cattiness has an acceptable female target, it is unleashed with a ferocity that greatly exceeds what would be allocated to a man with equivalent views.


        February 2, 2016 at 7:07 am

      • plenty of men hate their wives, ex wives, mothers, big sisters, grade school teachers to turn it against a female candidate too. a case of safe deflection, if the problem is your shrewish wife.

        Mrs Stitch

        February 2, 2016 at 10:41 am

      • There was no way Mondale was going to beat Reagan. McCain only had slightly better chances against Obama. There’s a difference between resorting to a gimmick as a last-ditch attempt to jumpstart a doomed campaign vs. having a strategy from the beginning to broaden the appeal of a party whose traditional base is not pulling its weight.

        Besides, a lot of people would say Palin did actually help McCain quite a bit. Could you imagine if it had been two white Republican men running against the first African-American candidate? I think McCain was wise to take the “history issue” off the table, if nothing else.


        February 2, 2016 at 12:14 pm

  3. Bush will be facing heavy GOPe pressure to drop out but I think he wants to hang in there in hope that he can pull an upset victory in New Hampshire.

    Bush’s dad is just about dead and Bush doesn’t want the “real” Florida Latino to beat him so maybe he will keep trying.


    February 2, 2016 at 1:50 am

    • Exactly. He’s in it until his donors run out of money, which is never. Or they stop giving him money.


      February 2, 2016 at 8:19 am

  4. I remember that you predicted two years ago that Huckabee would be the 2016 candidate.


    February 2, 2016 at 2:45 am

    • Good times, good times.

      Half Canadian

      February 2, 2016 at 12:44 pm

  5. Candidates drop out when they have better things to do. That is why I assume Fiorina and Carson might stay in. Both could play themselves into a role in the Republican administration.
    1. If Cruz is the next President then Carson will be the next secretary of Agriculture. As the Secretary, he


    February 2, 2016 at 9:15 am

  6. The decision to drop out is usually money driven.

    Carson is not running a normal campaign. Carson has been very successful at raising campaign contributions from small donors. Probably half the money he has raised so far has gone to pay the expenses of his fund raising operation. Carson campaign is sort of a marketing business, designed to promote Carson as a inspirational speaker and promote Carson’s books. The Carson campaign will keep going as long as the money lasts. After Iowa his phone/mail/email fund raising may decline. When the fund raising cost more than they are bring in, he will probably shut the campaign down.

    Santorum has some wealthy sugar daddy that will keep him going as long as he wants to see Santorum in the race.

    Fiorina has been moderately successful at fund raising and she could self fund if she wanted to, but I suspect she will drop out when the money runs out.


    February 2, 2016 at 9:57 am

  7. I don’t think the blow Trump received in New Hampshire should be ignored, but it’s also clear that New Hampshire is more relevant to the strategic calculations of more candidates, and thus more useful for drawing conclusions about the State of the Race.

    I don’t think it’s impossible Jeb could back out before then. You can like them or hate them, but the Bush family does have a tradition of gentlemanliness and honor, and I think Jeb might conclude his destined moment to be a Good Bush Man simply entails losing with grace and setting a good example to others.


    February 2, 2016 at 10:15 am

    • Probably the people most upset by the Iowa results are Bush, Christie, and Kasich. Their whole strategy, such as it was, depended on no candidate emerging out of the establishment crab bucket in Iowa, leaving them each a clean shot at the mantle in New Hampshire. That’s all ended now. I think it’s more likely than not that Bush and Christie will drop out before NH, because their path to victory has closed, and right now there is an avalanche of GOP elders, consultants, and donors telling them just that on the phone. Kasich has invested too much time and pride in New Hampshire to drop out, though he’ll probably be gone after he finishes behind Rubio next week.


      February 2, 2016 at 11:08 am

  8. Trump/Rubio/Cruz are front runners

    Carson is on a book tour. He will keep running as long as he can keep raising money (the end is coming, but not yet).

    Santorum has nothing to lose by dropping out and can run his campaign on a budget. Ditto for Rand Paul. Rand is embarrassing himself, but his father would have stuck around forever.

    Christie bet big on New Hampshire. If he shows poorly there, he’s out.

    Jeb and Fiorina have to be next, but I bet both stick around to Super Tuesday.


    February 2, 2016 at 10:43 am

  9. It’s worth remembering that Romney just BARELY lost Iowa to Santorum in 2012. Someone who looked at the aftermath of the vote back then would have drawn a pretty accurate conclusion on the state of the race, i.e.: Romney is strong but has some problems with evangelicals. Iowa is weird, but it’s not so weird as to make any attempt to draw lessons from it completely useless.


    February 2, 2016 at 10:49 am

    • 2012 was really close.

      I recall the vote was so close that recounts delayed calling Santorum the official winner until after other states had voted.

      It basically robbed Santorum of a victory bump, and kept the media mo with Romney.


      February 2, 2016 at 6:45 pm

  10. An exit poll on CBSN showed the top priorities of GOP voters were: 1. National debt, 2. economy, and then 3. immigration. I have not heard much about the debt in the news, but a lot about immigration. Is debt a bigger issue in Iowa than nationally? Trump needs to push his economic message more and immigration less.


    February 2, 2016 at 11:49 am

    • If they really are worried about 1 and 2, how in the hell did they think Cruz or Rubio were going to do jack squat about either? Given they are both globalist bootlickers. Yeah, Cruz and his Goldman Sachs wife are going to upset the globalist world order!!

      Iowans are dumb. A lot of them probably buy the Big Con of “immigration is good for the economy cuz jerbs.”


      February 2, 2016 at 2:31 pm

      • I think Cruz shut down the govt over debt limit a year ago.


        February 2, 2016 at 7:52 pm

  11. Carson is the biggest idiot to have ever run in a GOP race.

    Martin L.

    February 2, 2016 at 3:34 pm

  12. MEH 0910

    February 3, 2016 at 10:02 am

  13. Rand Paul just dropped out.


    February 3, 2016 at 10:08 am

  14. MEH 0910

    February 3, 2016 at 4:31 pm

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