Lion of the Blogosphere

Latest Reuters rolling national poll

Link to poll 1/31 – 2/5

Trump 39.2%
Cruz 16.9%
Rubio 12.6%
Carson 8.3%
Wouldn’t vote 6.2%
Bush 5.7%
Christie 4.3%
Kasich 2.5%
Fiorina 1.5%

There has been a lot of angst since Trump “lost” in Iowa (he actually won delegates and beat every candidate except Cruz who is too hardcore conservative to win the national nomination). Remember that even Ronald Reagan lost the Iowa caucus.

The national polling shows Trump well ahead, and if Cruz stays in the race and keeps his 16.9%, it’s impossible for any other candidate to get enough votes to stop Trump. And if Cruz drops out, most of his voters will vote for Trump instead.

I predict that once Trump starts winning primaries, social proof and momentum will push his support above 50%.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 6, 2016 at 9:47 am

Posted in Politics

9 Responses

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  1. Rubio’s bounce from placing third seems to have hit a ceiling. Which is to be expected since there’s only so much enthusiasm he can get with third place, even with media spin.

    I don’t see why Cruz is less likely to win the nomination than Rubio. He’s an acceptable alternative to most of Trump’s voters and Rubio is vulnerable on multiple points.

    The Undiscovered Jew

    February 6, 2016 at 10:38 am

  2. The system will find a way to dump Trump. I think their strategy is to have a crowded field of also rans to keep Trump under the magic number of 50%. If they can do that, they can strongarm the losers at the GOP Convention and give all the delegates to a loser like Rubio or Bush. It’ll destroy their Party forever, but considering that Lyin Ryan sold out everyone by giving Obama all the money he needs for the rest of his term for nothing, I don’t think they care. They probably figure they’ll all get a nice lobbying job if they get voted out. Trump isn’t that different from anyone else politically, but his Billions in Fuck You money means the donors can’t control him with their wallets. That’s why they’ll never let him win.
    We’re gonna have a Civil War.

    Joshua Sinistar

    February 6, 2016 at 11:07 am

  3. To be certain any momentum Rubio has is checked Trump should strongly go on the attack against him tonight and focus less on Cruz. Cruz will probably focus less on Trump because Cruz has as much interest in keeping the establishment field divided as Trump does. For tonight only, Trump and Cruz should be allies.

    The Undiscovered Jew

    February 6, 2016 at 11:11 am

  4. When Trump brings up the TPP he should mention Rubio is really for it and only avoids coming out in favor of it until after the elections are over. He should bring Rubio up in his points even the moderators don’t ask Rubio the same questions.

    The Undiscovered Jew

    February 6, 2016 at 11:15 am

  5. Trump better goddamn WIN. No more complaining about others “cheating” (if there is such a thing in politics). He should cheat if he can.

    I hope he and Cruz pile on that midget puppet in the debate. They have the Phyllis Schafly recent editorial as talking points agains that two-faced son of a bartender and hotel maid.

    I truly hate, hate, HATE Rubio in case it wasn’t clear. The man has gotten so far by being a “clean” hispanic who hooked up with an auto magnate and learned how to swim in the right social circles. He is a willing puppet and has never said anything in his life that wasn’t scripted. The sames lines, and jokes, and quips, over and over again. A perfect robot.


    February 6, 2016 at 11:52 am

  6. Trump isn’t going to attack Rubio in the debates because that isn’t his style. He is a mediocre debater who generally just makes a shallow stump speech instead of attacking rivals. The only time he attacks is if somebody attacks him, which most are afraid to do.

    And Trump did lose IA. The polls had him winning and he lost. He lost in part because he campaigned poorly in the state and had a terrible ground game. Meanwhile, his chief rival, Marco Rubio, dramatically over performed his own poll numbers and almost tied Trump in a state that Trump was supposed to win.

    Throughout the rest of the contest we will likely continue to see Trump under performing his polls and Rubio over performing his. When the establishment finally consolidates, that will be a big deal.

    Otis the Sweaty

    February 6, 2016 at 12:08 pm

  7. After New Hampshire I suspect the GOPe will be putting a lot of pressure for all of the other establishment candidates to bail to protect Rubio. That’s been how they’ve won primaries so far, by uniting quickly behind an establishment candidate while the conservative candidates are divided.

    Of course in this case, Trump is the more RINO candidate on most positions, but his anti amnesty stance is a no go with GOPe so they will gladly take a pro amnesty conservative like Rubio over a Trump. However the longer Cruz is in the race the harder it makes to boil this race down to what it’s really about: amnesty vs anti-amnesty. Cruz is willing to play both sides of the fence on that, and muddies the waters.

    Mike Street Station

    February 6, 2016 at 12:11 pm

  8. Lion, what makes you think Cruz is too hardcore conservative to win the nomination? Reagan won twice, in an era when the Republican party was not as far-right-friendly as it is now. As late as the early fall of 1980,many people thought Reagan could never get elected because he was a pure movement conservative. We’ve seen that a solid conservative can win the presidency. It seems to me that your argument is almost 30 years out of date. Unless I’m not getting what you mean. You think that Trump will bring out tons of disaffected whites who have given up on the political process. Why wouldn’t Cruz be attractive to them (in the fall, of course?) It’s hard to see why you think Trump would do better in the general. All the polls we have indicate that he’d lose.


    February 6, 2016 at 3:41 pm

    • Cruz is no Ronald Reagan. Ronald Reagan was very likeable. Cruz is hated by everyone who knows him.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      February 6, 2016 at 5:03 pm

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