Latest Reuters rolling national poll
Wouldn’t vote 6.2%
There has been a lot of angst since Trump “lost” in Iowa (he actually won delegates and beat every candidate except Cruz who is too hardcore conservative to win the national nomination). Remember that even Ronald Reagan lost the Iowa caucus.
The national polling shows Trump well ahead, and if Cruz stays in the race and keeps his 16.9%, it’s impossible for any other candidate to get enough votes to stop Trump. And if Cruz drops out, most of his voters will vote for Trump instead.
I predict that once Trump starts winning primaries, social proof and momentum will push his support above 50%.