Lion of the Blogosphere

Will Bernie beat Hillary?

Latest national poll shows Hillary leading by only 3 percentage points.

After Bernie wins in New Hampshire, this will give him momentum and social proof. People who previously saw him as an old kook will come to see him as a desirable candidate because of his electoral successes.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 8, 2016 at 1:56 pm

Posted in Politics

21 Responses

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  1. People already know Sanders is a contender. His win in New Hampshire will be downplayed because he represents neighbor Vermont. This is still Clinton’s to lose, but I’d be suitably impressed if we elected a self-described “socialist” as president.


    February 8, 2016 at 2:02 pm

    • I don’t think winning in New Hampshire will give Bernie momentum unless he wins by much more than he’s projected to win by the RCP poll average, where he’s ahead by about 14% now.

      The problems are 1) everyone already expects Bernie to win NH; 2) Hillary’s leading him by ~30% in heavily black South Carolina.

      A wildcard might be if Bernie supporter and rapper Killer Mike puts together a rapper posse to campaign for him in South Carolina.

      Dave Pinsen

      February 9, 2016 at 3:26 am

  2. Nah…Bernie won’t win.

    Black people like three things:

    1) Malt Liquor…they love malt liquor.

    2) Fried Chicken…they love fried chicken (personally: I am with the black folks on that one…fried chicken is good).

    3) They love Bill Clinton…love him. They cannot get enough of Clinton.

    They don’t like Jewish guys from NYC that are elected from a state that is 99% white…Bernie has an exceedingly nerdy personality…Trump will take the Black vote if Bernie is the Democrat nominee.

    FB (Former Beta)

    February 8, 2016 at 2:06 pm

    • “Trump will take the Black vote if Bernie is the Democrat nominee.”

      I don’t think so. Most blacks will prefer the chump they know they can boss around and extract benefits from. But I agree that more blacks than usual will vote Republican in a Trump vs. Bernie matchup.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      February 8, 2016 at 2:08 pm

      • GOP pac dark money only need replay the Seattle BLM maumauing of Bernie to simultaneously fire up the disgust neurons of both conservative whites and blacks of all stripes..

        Thin-Skinned Masta-Beta

        February 8, 2016 at 9:45 pm

      • There’s no way Trump will win the black vote, but even getting 20-25% would be a yuuge blow to any democrat running…


        February 9, 2016 at 2:59 pm

    • 3) They love Bill Clinton…love him. They cannot get enough of Clinton.

      Blacks dropped Bill Clinton like a bad habit in the 2007 Demicratic primary & even called him racist. Hillary had to work for Obama for 4 years to regain their trust. Besides Bill Clinton’s political acumen & charisma seem to be way past their prime.


      February 8, 2016 at 2:19 pm

    • In what way does Bernie have a “nerdy” personality? He doesn’t come across like a nerd at all.

      Dave Pinsen

      February 9, 2016 at 3:21 am

  3. You are right…would be an extreme stretch to take the black vote…there would have to be a picture out there with Bernie at a cross burning for that to happen…

    I think the last time a Republican did well with the black folks was Dwight Eisenhower (I think he received something like 25% of the black vote)…

    And he was the hero-liberator of Europe, presided over a massively booming economy (that lifted both blacks and whites) and took the side of blacks with respect to Civil Rights….
    The black folks set a very high bar to voting for a Republican…

    FB (Former Beta)

    February 8, 2016 at 2:14 pm

  4. The party establishment and the oligarchs who fund the system are lined up behind Hillary, just as they were eight years ago. Back then the NY Times ran a long article about how she’d locked up the nomination even before the primaries had begun. But then Democrats discovered Obama, and it all went away.

    Her problem is that voters neither like nor trust her. The general public dislikes her, Democrats dislke her, baby boomer Democrats dislike her, and what’s worse, even female baby boomer Democrats shy away from her. She can’t even win over her own demographic.

    Whatever he husband has, or had, in the way of charisma and a sense of connection, however insincere it may have been, she doesn’t have and she’s never had. Nobody is really excited by her candidacy, and lots of people are repulsed by it. She’s not really a successful politician, and she’s always going to be vulnerable.

    ice hole

    February 8, 2016 at 2:19 pm

  5. Oh: And Adlai Stevenson was a northern pointy head type like Sanders…Trump will get 25% of the black vote, should Trump be the nominee.

    My question to you, Lion: who the heck are the voters who vote for the Republican “mainstream” candidates? Why would they? Why would anyone think that another Bush is a good idea, for example?

    FB (Former Beta)

    February 8, 2016 at 2:21 pm

    • > who the heck are the voters who vote for the Republican “mainstream” candidates? Why would they?

      Baby boomers, particularly if they are going senile. They vote for mainstream candidates because they are “electable” (of course the fact that “electable” candidates McCain and Romney both lost never seems to enter the picture). Oh and of course they vote for them: the TV tells them to.


      February 8, 2016 at 3:54 pm

  6. As someone who has supported Bernie Sanders long before it was cool, it is heartening to see him come this far.

    Loved how pissed off Hillary got when Bernie (an old white man) kept accusing Hillary (the potential first woman predident) of being the establishment

    But she is the establishment. It’s not as if she were independently famous, she’s the wife of a president. Wives & daughters of powerful men have always had great power so there’s nothing revolutionary about her candidacy & that’s partly why young women are supporting Bernie over her.


    February 8, 2016 at 2:27 pm

    • Young white women, not young women.

      Otis the Sweaty

      February 8, 2016 at 4:28 pm

      • THWACK, STFU and go back to dreaming about raping white women.

        Robert the Wise

        February 8, 2016 at 6:33 pm

  7. I’ve long said that Hillary’s support in the Democratic Party is miles wide but barely an inch deep. The Dems will grudgingly support her as long as there is no one better. So really it comes down to if they think Bernie is electable or not. If, at some point, they decide he is, they’ll drop her just like they did in 2008.

    Mike Street Station

    February 8, 2016 at 3:45 pm

  8. It’s true that black voters moved swiftly from Hillary to Obama in 2008. But gee whiz, I wonder what the key variable there was?

    Sanders is from a white state in which the concerns of black people has never been more than an abstraction. It’s not complicated, and you don’t have to be a partisan or an ideologue or a racist to explain it. He simply hasn’t put in the time engaging with minority voters or minority issues. Sometimes politicians are just objectively bad at certain things. It would be like if an atheist ran for the GOP or something.

    Sanders is basically in the position Trump would be if there was only one establishment candidate. He has a niche appeal, but the establishment vote is a powerful coalition that can’t be shattered just by calling it names.


    February 8, 2016 at 3:46 pm

  9. I kind of like Bernie as a person…and he isn’t super wrong about some things, but immigration is a a deal breaker: if you aren’t a hard ass about the invasion we have been undergoing for the last 30 years, I can’t vote for you…

    I am guessing a lot of folks might give Bernie a look if he were serious about this issue…

    FB (Former Beta)

    February 8, 2016 at 6:12 pm

    • Bernie used to be good on immigration. He voted against the McCain amnesty. And Bernie used to be great on gun rights, too.

      But to run for president as a Democrat, Bernie had to shift way to the right on guns and immigration so now he’s lousy on both.

      I still say Bernie is way less likely to sign any amnesty bill than Rubio or Jeb!


      February 9, 2016 at 12:27 am

    • No, Bernie is anti-immigration loosening.


      February 9, 2016 at 4:23 am

  10. The Clintons can and will ladle out the pork to every black church in the South. They know who to bribe and how to bribe them. The Bernie surge is manufactured drama.


    February 8, 2016 at 7:54 pm

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