Nate Cohn is a moron
If the polls are anywhere near right Tuesday, Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders will win the state, perhaps in landslides. Yet neither seems especially likely to win the nomination.
I won’t comment on Sanders, but I don’t see how it’s likely that anyone but Trump wins the Republican nomination.
Trump has as much as 40% support in nationwide polls, and even if 40% of Republicans won’t vote for him as long as someone else is still in the race, that still leaves him room to increase his support by up to 10 more percentage points, which is more than enough votes to win the majority of the delegates. Remember that whoever wins early primaries always gets more support because people like to vote for a winner, and there’s no reason to think this rule doesn’t apply to Trump.
It’s not going to become a two-way race. Cruz is never dropping out and the GOPe will never support Cruz. If some news stories are to be believed, they hate Cruz so much that they’d rather have Trump.
Trump can easily win the majority of the delegates capturing 45 to 50% of the vote with the rest splitting between Cruz, Carson (who also may not drop out) and one or more of the establishment candidates. Remember that the Republicans changed the rules to make it easier for the front-runner to win the lion’s share of delegates, in order to prevent uncertain outcomes.