Lion of the Blogosphere

Nate Cohn is a moron

Nate Cohn writes in the NY Times:

If the polls are anywhere near right Tuesday, Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders will win the state, perhaps in landslides. Yet neither seems especially likely to win the nomination.

I won’t comment on Sanders, but I don’t see how it’s likely that anyone but Trump wins the Republican nomination.

Trump has as much as 40% support in nationwide polls, and even if 40% of Republicans won’t vote for him as long as someone else is still in the race, that still leaves him room to increase his support by up to 10 more percentage points, which is more than enough votes to win the majority of the delegates. Remember that whoever wins early primaries always gets more support because people like to vote for a winner, and there’s no reason to think this rule doesn’t apply to Trump.

It’s not going to become a two-way race. Cruz is never dropping out and the GOPe will never support Cruz. If some news stories are to be believed, they hate Cruz so much that they’d rather have Trump.

Trump can easily win the majority of the delegates capturing 45 to 50% of the vote with the rest splitting between Cruz, Carson (who also may not drop out) and one or more of the establishment candidates. Remember that the Republicans changed the rules to make it easier for the front-runner to win the lion’s share of delegates, in order to prevent uncertain outcomes.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 9, 2016 at 3:21 pm

Posted in Politics

23 Responses

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  1. If Trump wins tonight, he’s obviously going to win the nomination. Even Nate Silver (douchebag) admits as much.

    Cohn is just an open borders shill who can’t accept that the lowly peasants aren’t revolting. He actually thought Trump’s McCain comment would sink him.

    Otis the Sweaty

    February 9, 2016 at 3:24 pm

  2. Its Trump or a brokered convention (or fraud). Cruz can’t win, and Rubio/Bush can’t win w/o fraud unless Trump unexpectedly drops out.

    Theoretically, Cruz can eat some of what would have been Trump voters in the south to keep him from getting the requirements.

    Remember, the GOP nomination requires the nominee to win the majority of delegates in 8 states. Not just a win, the majority of delegates. That’s the tough part, not guaranteed to happen in even a 3-way race. There are some winner-take-all states where Trump can do really well, such as Florida and Ohio, but if Cruz sludges along and dings Trump enough in Texas and some other states, we could theoretically see a brokered convention.


    February 9, 2016 at 3:40 pm

  3. Trump isnt staying in anything if he isnt winning. He nearly had a melt down after Iowa (musing that self funding wasnt worth it). You really see him staying in race after race in second place.

    People know that as the candidates drop out support goes to the non-Trump. So everyone else goes up and Trump stays where he is. 40% support doesnt win a 2-man election.

    I think Carson is out soon after tonight. This is too vulgar a p process for him and a skill set not in his wheelhouse.

    Probably Christie too. Carly stays in because she is running for something else.

    Lion of the Turambar

    February 9, 2016 at 3:41 pm

  4. Trump can still lose if this ends up being a 3-way race between Trump, Cruz and an Establishment Republican. Trump and Cruz will split the anti-Establishment vote, keeping the Establishment guy in the race until the convention. In a brokered convention, the Establishment wins.

    To lock this thing up, Trump needs to squash Cruz. Trump winning New Hampshire looks like a foregone conclusion, but the key is South Carolina. If Trump beats Cruz pretty badly there, it’ll become obvious that Cruz has no path to victory and he will lose support.

    Great Again

    February 9, 2016 at 3:46 pm

    • What are the chances that Trump beats Cruz in the South? Trump is a wealthy New Yorker and socially liberal. Cruz is an evangelical, a socon, and a Southerner himself. It seems to me that the real threat to Cruz in the South is Rubio, not Trump.


      February 9, 2016 at 4:47 pm

      • Trump has a healthy lead in the South Carolina polls

        Great Again

        February 9, 2016 at 5:55 pm

      • Trump could win in the south, if he plays the feelings of Southern Proles with guns and the race problem. Unlike Iowa, there is a lot of NAM dysfunction in Confederate land. And Southerners would like Trump more, because he’s a businessman who made his fortunes with casinos and real estate. Southerners are money minded than Iowans. However, if he loses in NH, his opponents could tear him into pieces for being a one trick pony with no substance.


        February 9, 2016 at 6:08 pm

    • Four years ago, Romney picked up more and more support as each candidate dropped out. Evangelicals would rather vote for an establishment guy than an anti-establishment candidate. If Cruz drops out it will help the establishment guys more than it will help Trump. There is no double-digit anti-establishment voting bloc.


      February 9, 2016 at 5:05 pm

    • The “establishment” prism is only one way of looking at it. You could also argue that a Trump-Cruz-governor race features two conservatives and one… whatever Trump is — anti-immigration hardliner, right wing dissident, third way extremist, whatever. I don’t think it’s that controversial to say Trump is not a conservative. He has some right-wing opinions on some things, and a lot of heretical or esoteric opinions on others. A lot of those opinions are attractive to a lot of people, but the polls say they’re most attractive to moderates and independents and other people who don’t take Republican dogma that seriously.

      At the end of the day, it’s the Republican Party. Most primary voters are Republicans, and want a candidate with some degree of loyalty to Republican principles as they have been defined over the last few decades. I think Trump’s path to victory requires an ongoing vote split among two Republican opponents of any flavor. The second it becomes a two-man race Trump is finished because most Republicans don’t like him.


      February 9, 2016 at 5:17 pm

  5. I won’t mind if either Trump or Cruz win. The Republican establishment and press hate them both, that’s good enough endorsement for me.

    I hope Bernie wins. Who knows, I may end up voting for Bernie. Despite his leftism, he’s a likable dude.


    February 9, 2016 at 4:19 pm

    • He doesn’t seem likable, or maybe I’m thinking of Larry David. In any case, I would love it if Bernie actually takes the nomination away from Hillary. I would like to see demonstrated that entitlement attitude doesn’t work.

      Mike Street Station

      February 9, 2016 at 4:41 pm

      • Would be epic if Bernie wins the nomination and picks Larry David as running mate.


        February 9, 2016 at 5:41 pm

    • I don’t get the idea that Cruz is anti-establishment. His wife works for Goldman Sachs, his policies are all aggressively pro-rich. He’s obviously disingenuous and open to being influenced. The idea that he’s anti-establishment strikes me a “controlled opposition” sort of thing. Is it just that he’s very personally disliked by everyone in the Republican party?


      February 9, 2016 at 7:00 pm

  6. Don’t jinx it Lion. After Iowa I’m convinced anything can happen, and that there’s a genuine question whether Trump’s supporters will turn out. Plus New Hampshire primary polling is historically unreliable. I think it’s definitely going to be closer than the polling suggests.


    February 9, 2016 at 4:39 pm

  7. “to make it easier for the front-runner to win the lion’s share of delegates,”

    The lion’s share? Were they reading your blog? LOL.


    February 9, 2016 at 5:22 pm

  8. Kasich will come in a strong second and be the anointed one.


    February 9, 2016 at 5:24 pm

    • I should have the courage of my convictions and say it. I don’t think Trump will win tonight. He will crash and burn. Kasich wins.


      February 9, 2016 at 7:05 pm

      • OK…you didn’t think Trump would win, but you thought Kaisich would come in second, so you were half right, but who did you think was going to beat Trump and Kaisich?

        Mike Street Station

        February 10, 2016 at 6:29 am

  9. OT: will Von Miller be ostracized by blacks because he destroyed Mr. Unforgiveable Blackness Jesus Black Christ Black Superstar Cam Newton?


    February 9, 2016 at 5:25 pm

  10. Here’s a prediction. Jeb is done, but he won’t drop out. His ego can’t take finishing below Rubio. As long as he’s in the race he gets to have the campaign pay for strategy meetings over dinner at five star restaurants.

    He’ll at least nominally stay in the race until he’s spent all the donor money.


    February 9, 2016 at 6:46 pm

  11. first exit poll has it Trump 36, Cruz 15, Kasich 14.

    Guess the stupid Christians won’t be able to steal Trump’s nom after all.

    Otis the Sweaty

    February 9, 2016 at 7:12 pm

    • Link?


      February 9, 2016 at 7:38 pm

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