Pre-results NH analysis
Trump: If he pulls in less than 30% of the vote, people will say he underperformed and is weaker than his poll numbers suggest.
Cruz: I don’t see his actual vote being much different than his poll numbers. His supporters support him strongly, but undecideds and moderates are not going to break for him.
Rubio: A week ago he seemed like a lock to win second place. If that happens (and it still could happen), the GOPe will anoint him as the official establishment pick and exert as much pressure as they can for everyone else to drop out. But latest polls show he has lost momentum. It’s possible he could finish in fifth place (behind Trump, Cruz, Kasich and Bush), in which case his robotic debate performance will earn a place in political history alongside the “Dean scream.” He would never recover from such a disaster.
Bush and Kasich: Both have upward momentum. Bush could overperform because of his well-financed ground game, and Kasich could overperform if moderates and undecideds and non-Republicans break for him.
Christie: His good debate performance hurt Rubio more than it helped himself. He will drop out on Wednesday.
Carson and Fiorina: Neither of these two have any chance of winning. I don’t know if either will drop out. Neither is a professional politician and neither has anything better to do with their time. Fiorina will get 1% of the vote at most in elections after New Hampshire. Carson’s supporters are more attached to him and he could continue to get 7% of the vote for as long as he stays in.