Lion of the Blogosphere

Pre-results NH analysis

Trump: If he pulls in less than 30% of the vote, people will say he underperformed and is weaker than his poll numbers suggest.

Cruz: I don’t see his actual vote being much different than his poll numbers. His supporters support him strongly, but undecideds and moderates are not going to break for him.

Rubio: A week ago he seemed like a lock to win second place. If that happens (and it still could happen), the GOPe will anoint him as the official establishment pick and exert as much pressure as they can for everyone else to drop out. But latest polls show he has lost momentum. It’s possible he could finish in fifth place (behind Trump, Cruz, Kasich and Bush), in which case his robotic debate performance will earn a place in political history alongside the “Dean scream.” He would never recover from such a disaster.

Bush and Kasich: Both have upward momentum. Bush could overperform because of his well-financed ground game, and Kasich could overperform if moderates and undecideds and non-Republicans break for him.

Christie: His good debate performance hurt Rubio more than it helped himself. He will drop out on Wednesday.

Carson and Fiorina: Neither of these two have any chance of winning. I don’t know if either will drop out. Neither is a professional politician and neither has anything better to do with their time. Fiorina will get 1% of the vote at most in elections after New Hampshire. Carson’s supporters are more attached to him and he could continue to get 7% of the vote for as long as he stays in.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 9, 2016 at EDT pm

Posted in Politics

6 Responses

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  1. If Trump loses, it’s game over. Let’s hope that doesn’t happen.


    February 9, 2016 at EDT pm

  2. My sense is less could happen in the aftermath of NH than is currently being expected.

    I think you’re absolutely right about Carson and Fiorina, Lion. Carson has to remain in the race simply to spite Cruz, and disprove that story the Cruz people were circulating in Iowa about how Carson was planning to withdraw.

    Carly seems to deeply believe she brings fundamental value to the race simply by being a woman. She was, however, badly screwed by not being included in the last debate and will presumably never be in another debate again, since the entrance standards are just going to get stricter from here. If she does not drop out after tonight I think Lion’s sociopath thesis will be proven.

    Regardless of what happens in New Hampshire, Marco and Jeb will soldier on, since they’ll both believe their home state of Florida — which has more delegates than Iowa and New Hampshire combined — will ultimately vindicate them.

    Since everyone’s current expectations for Kasich are zero, no matter how he places in NH he will “outperform” and feel justified in hanging around. He’s been compared to Huntsman from 2012, who finished third in NH but then immediately dropped out, but I think Kasich is playing a longer game.

    Barring a spectacularly bad showing, Christie will feel he exceeded expectations as well thanks to his debate performance and feel he has momentum in the “establishment lane.”

    If the “governors” are clustered tightly within a percentage point or two from each other, it will be hard to argue any of them objectively lost. Practically everyone has a way of hand-waving away tonight’s results.


    February 9, 2016 at EDT pm

    • Christie has been banking on New Hampshire to propel his campaign. If he comes in 7th, which is likely, he’s dropping out.

      If he surprises me by coming in 5th or better, then yes, he may reason that he has momentum and should stay in.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      February 9, 2016 at EDT pm

  3. Bush has upward momentum?

    So does a whale turd at the bottom of the Marianas Trench.


    February 9, 2016 at EDT pm

  4. Christie could be a good VP. NY Trump plus NJ Christie would put NJ into play, especially if HRC pics a bland unqualified hispanic or black VP.

    Best choice though remains Rob Portman, a past winner in a close must win state. He is very suave and eGOPy and has a gay son who went to Yale and is a perfect gay WASP stereotype. Perfect chance to move left on gay rights but reassure SoCons with hardcore opposition to abortion. Trump is also very good on foreign persecution of christian issues, it is part of his stump speech. Portman also is a former Bush official and picking him can help mend that relationship.


    February 9, 2016 at EDT pm

  5. I’m bothered by two things with Trump:

    1. His ground game. You can’t go by polls and show biz speeches that people go to for entertainment in these boring nowhere states. People need to GET OUT AND VOTE!

    2. Trump’s fans are mostly not die hard political hacks and nerds and party members. They are emotionally inspired outsiders which gets back to 1. The failure of a ground game to get them out to vote.


    February 9, 2016 at EDT pm

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