Lion of the Blogosphere

Freddy “the Beadle” Barnes says

“The message to Republican leaders from New Hampshire is this: you’d better start figuring out how to help Donald Trump win the general election because he’s probably going to be your presidential nominee.” Donald Trump in Driver’s Seat on Way to Presidential Nomination

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I don’t think they are going to capitulate to Trump until after he sweeps Super Tuesday, when it will become more obviously apparent that the only alternative with any polling strength is second-place Ted Cruz whom the GOPe hates more than Trump.

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In 2008, McCain had a slim victory over Huckabee, 33.2% to 29.9%.

In 2012, Newt beat Romney 40.4% to 27.8%.

Trump, given the state of current polls and momentum from NH with no clear challenger, looks likely to do substantially better in SC then the previous two Republican nominees, winning the state with a good lead over Cruz. This will set Trump up to sweep Super Tuesday.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 10, 2016 at 10:35 am

Posted in Politics

17 Responses

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  1. Last night was a real triumph for democracy. Republicans don’t like Muslims or immigration, Democrats don’t like rich people or bankers. Both sides are finally being offered what they really want, and and they’re choosing it.


    February 10, 2016 at 10:43 am

    • Bloomberg will have to run as an independent, in order to represent Muslims (remember the how he favored the ground zero mosque), immigration, rich people and bankers.


      February 10, 2016 at 10:58 am

      • Yes, he’ll get 70% of the media and 5% of everyone else.


        February 10, 2016 at 12:16 pm

    • Good points. And black people like pols who sing “I don’t feel no ways tarred,” and promise them free stuff. They get to vote for their person too.


      February 10, 2016 at 1:04 pm

  2. The GOPe could theoretically have a path to the nomination if all the GOPe candidates gave their electoral votes to 1 person. But if Trump was the victor in a bunch of states then that would look crooked to regular folks.


    February 10, 2016 at 11:04 am

  3. My evangelical, Bob Jones University graduate neighbors are slowing coming around to Trump. Ideally, they’d like someone more churchy but Trump will win the day with them through his showy support of the military.


    February 10, 2016 at 11:40 am

  4. are you guys following the carnage on the Dem side? Somebody explain to me: why do black liberals hate Bernie so much? Is it because they love Clinton or because they just hate SWPLs?

    I think rank and file blacks are either neutral or positive towards Bernie, but black liberals absolutely revile him.

    Ironically, NH was a better showing for the open borders crowd than IA. 57% of the vote went for the open borders candidates. But NH repubs are first rate cucks and just like Iowans put their Christianity first, NHers put their cuckism first.

    Now the primary goes to real America and Trump is going to run the board.

    Otis the Sweaty

    February 10, 2016 at 12:17 pm

    • Black people are actually very conservative. Which I keep saying. And no, that does not mean they will vote for Ted Cruz, they will vote for the party they believe gives them stuff (like affirmative action and Obama phones) and that they can boss around.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      February 10, 2016 at 1:17 pm

      • Ta-Nehisi Coates, y’know, the foremost intellectual of our times, just endorses Bernie.

        Ripple Earthdevil

        February 10, 2016 at 1:25 pm

      • Black people are (small c) conservative. They were about the last big Democratic group to switch from Hillary to Obama in 2008. They just didn’t believe the “fairy tale,” as Bill Clinton called it. Of course after a few wins, they flocked to him.

        With Bernie, even though he offers more free stuff, the safer choice is Hillary, until Bernie proves he can really win the election. Of course voters want to be flattered that their candidate “cares” about them. The Clintons have done a good job of that sort of retail politics. Sanders doesn’t have that kind of experience.

        Mike Street Station

        February 11, 2016 at 6:20 pm

  5. Last night at a republican club meeting, I heard our oldest most establishment GOP dowager utter the T word with a smile on her face. Everyone loves a winner! So this is probably what she’s hearing from other GOP leaders.

    For the most part we don’t talk about our early preferences among ourselves, because you never know who will emerge, and who wants to get stuck with a loser or offend some other member with a different preference? So these groups can seem strangely apolitical, which is offputting to new activists, who then drift away and back to Fox News.

    Hard to explain, really, but for an activist who understands this dynamic, it could be a fun year.

    Mrs Stitch

    February 10, 2016 at 12:18 pm

  6. Lion: I believe it’s Fred “Beetle” Barnes. The nickname probably derives from the Beetle Bailey comic strip.

    Lewis Medlock

    February 10, 2016 at 1:07 pm

    • No, it’s “the Beadle” which is a Catholic term. John McLaughlin, who was a Jesuit priest before he was the host of a politics TV show, gave him that nickname. Fred didn’t like being called that. Fred Barnes explained this at a talk he gave at ASU which I attended.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      February 10, 2016 at 1:19 pm

      • Huh? A beadle is a doorman/general security guy at, for example, Oxbridge colleges. Usually in a bowler hat. Don’t know what it means in US.

        dried peanuts

        February 10, 2016 at 1:58 pm

      • Among Jesuits, it refer to the “novice who helps the Novice Director to run the community.”

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        February 10, 2016 at 2:08 pm

  7. McCain won over Huckabee in South Carolina in 2008 for two main reasons:

    1–Younger GOP voters, even many younger evangelicals, strongly broke for McCain. As I think is well known by now, under-30 evangelicals are not particularly conservative and probably well under 50% are even Republicans at all. The old Falwellite/Dobsonite generation of rock-ribbed moral-issues conservative evangelicalism was already starting to die off in numbers in 2008.

    2–A big snowstorm disproportionately hit the more conservative (read older and more evangelical) portions of SC the night before the primary–precisely the places where Huckabee support was strongest. Not only were the more progressive areas of SC (where McCain did well) less affected by the blizzard, but younger, healthier people are less likely to be deterred from an optional activity like voting than the geriatric set.

    3–Two words: Fred Thompson. Thompson had stronger conservative credentials than Huckabee in the eyes of the super-evangelicals (i.e. today’s Cruz fans) and these “true believers” tended to go for him.

    Without one of the above factors, Huckabee likely wins. Without two of them, he almost certainly does. How would Huckabee have done in the general against Obama in 2008?

    Martin L.

    February 10, 2016 at 2:24 pm

    • Well he might not have suspended his campaign in September. That would have been a good start.

      Lion of the Turambar

      February 10, 2016 at 2:51 pm

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