Lion of the Blogosphere

South Carolina polls

The polls date back to mid-January when Trump had a commanding 36% which is higher than his recent 31% in NH which he beat by 4 percentage points.

With momentum from NH plus his ability to outperform the polls, I expect Trump to capture 40% or more of the vote in South Carolina. Cruz will probably finish in second and Bush in third. I predict third place for Bush because Kasich’s moderate persona won’t play well in South Carolina and he also lacks financing. Rubio’s robotic glitch plus his poor performance in NH will keep him behind Bush. The real battle may be for fourth place. Will Kasich or Rubio win 4th place? It’s too close to call.

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Thinking about this some more, it’s not a completely outside possibility that Kasich can win 3rd place in SC behind Cruz. He could probably do that with only 13% of the vote, which is not an impossibly high amount of the vote. It depends on how much momentum he pulls out of NH. But if I had to bet even money, I’d bet on Bush to finish third.

If Kasich does pull off a surprise third place, he will become the establishment pick, especially if the vote falls Kasich, then Bush, then Rubio. (A fourth place finish for Rubio behind Kasich but ahead of Bush could be taken to indicate that he has recovered from his debate glitch and that he’s a stronger candidate than Bush. On the other hand, fourth place behind Bush means that the debate glitch killed him and that Kasich was a one-state wonder.)

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 10, 2016 at 8:41 am

Posted in Politics

5 Responses

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  1. Oh the hilarity…


    February 10, 2016 at 10:18 am

  2. As far as I can tell, Kasich is getting little positive press for his 2nd place finish. All the attention is going to Trump and Sanders and the “outsider” narrative. For that reason, I don’t see him getting much of a bump out of his placing. I think he’ll do poorly in SC, behind both Bush and Rubio.


    February 10, 2016 at 11:19 am

  3. Trump’s problem is that he is nowhere close to a majority and that the pro-business as usual Republicans will all eventually rally around one candidate. As long as Cruz stays in the race, he is in trouble.

    Trump’s other problem is that his ground game so far has sucked.

    South Carolina is more liberal than people think, not least because the Democrat party is black there and liberal whites vote republican instead. And, all of the Republican elected officials in the state have endorsed Rubio, save Lindsay Graham.

    But they aren’t fake-nice either. So the Evangelicals that are Ted Cruz’s main and only strong supporters so far may be up for grabs.

    This is the state that voted Gingritch, who is the most like Gingritch?


    February 10, 2016 at 11:39 am

  4. Saint Ta-Nehisi just backed Bernie:


    February 10, 2016 at 12:06 pm

  5. Whatever happens, Bush is staying in the race until Florida. Rubio probably is too. They both have enough money to last a while. So the best thing from Trump’s perspective is for Kasich to finish 3rd in SC so that all 3 Establishment candidates stick around to split the vote.

    Trump’s bigger problem is Cruz. Trump has enough devoted supporters to give him a floor of about 25% in every state, but Cruz is likely to have a floor of at least 15% in every non-Northeast state, so he’ll always be nipping at Trump’s heels. I don’t know how Trump can bury him unless Cruz finally pulls out after taking 2nd place about 10 times in a row. Are there enough winner take all states for Trump to get to the magic number of delegates despite Cruz always right behind him?

    Great Again

    February 10, 2016 at 7:34 pm

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