Lion of the Blogosphere

Wrap-up: Great night for Trump!

Only 81% of precincts have reported, so this could change overnight.

But so far, Trump has 34.8% of the vote, outperforming every single poll. Trump has demonstrated that he can turn out more voters then the poll numbers show.

This also shows that the internet polls were more accurate than the live-telephone-interview polls, because the internet polls had Trump as high as 34%.

This is also a great night for Trump because no alternative to Trump has emerged. Cruz had a very mediocre night with only 11.5% of the vote. That was in the lower side of his range of recent polls. No breakout for Cruz.

The Kasich breakout, with Rubio looking to come in 5th place, puts the GOPe in a huge bind. The GOPe was banking on their Boy Wonder Rubio coming in second and becoming the anointed establishment candidate. But then he had that robotic debate moment.

Christie looks like he’s going to drop out, but Kasich, Bush and Rubio are going to stay in, and the GOPe has no authority to tell any of them they have to drop out. As the second place winner, Kasich is certainly not dropping out. And Rubio will stay in on the basis of coming very close to Trump in his third-place finish in Iowa, and pretty close behind Bush in New Hampshire. And Bush isn’t dropping out because he hates Rubio and his campaign will believe that Kasich can’t repeat his performance in any other state, and certainly not in the southern states. But I wouldn’t write off Kasich so quickly. He has a lot of momentum now. (That is, I wouldn’t write him off for beating Rubio and Bush in future primaries. He’s not going to be able to beat Trump.)

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 10, 2016 at 12:10 am

Posted in Politics

28 Responses

Subscribe to comments with RSS.

  1. Obviously I’ve missed something. Why do you and various commenters refer to the Republican Party as “the GOPe”? What’s with the “e”?

    ice hole

    February 10, 2016 at 12:46 am

    • GOPe= GOP establishment.

      This has turned out to be the most entertaining presidential race in my lifetime. I almost can’t wait for John Heilemann’s and Mark Halprin’s book on this race to come out.

      Mike Street Station

      February 10, 2016 at 7:16 am

    • ice hole–GOPestablishment

      Robert

      February 10, 2016 at 7:30 am

    • It appears to be an alternative form of GOP-E (establishment or elite), which may have originated on Free Republic in late 2011 and become common there in 2012. Like you, I’ve only noticed it recently as GOPe, and only in the last few months. Its first and only use in an iSteve comment before the Unz transition was in March 2014; afterwards, one of its earliest appearances on his blog came in August 2015, when a reader linked to a post on The Conservative Treehouse.

      Genserico

      February 10, 2016 at 8:13 am

    • GOPestablishment

      Nedd Ludd

      February 10, 2016 at 8:43 am

  2. The thing about Kasich is that he has no game left. He basically ran around doing town halls in New Hampshire. He was rewarded with 16% of the vote. Nobody in South Carolina knows who he is. He would have gotten 4% before, now he will get 9% or something like that

    A Reader

    February 10, 2016 at 12:47 am

  3. I believe that New Hampshire is a state that lets anyone vote in the primary of either party – in other words, you don’t have to be a registered Republican to vote in the Republican primary. You just can vote in the primary of only one party. This is not good because it allows saboteurs to ruin the smaller of the two parties by voting in its primary and giving votes to a candidate who isn’t electable in the general election. A lot of Trump’s voters in NH were independents and Democrats. I don’t think many other states give voters this kind of leeway. Also, NH is a small liberal state. The Republicans there are to the left of Republicans nationally. Trump will need larger and more typically Republican states to prove he can really unite the party. Maybe he can. The point is that the NH win, while obviously a plus for him, shouldn’t be taken as a sign that he’s begun a winning streak that will take him to the nomination. I still don’t see the party nominating a decadent plutocrat with a vulgar mouth who’s spent his whole adult life among the New York City elite. At least not without a very bitter fight. This could get ugly really fast.

    Maryk

    February 10, 2016 at 12:49 am


    • “I believe that New Hampshire is a state that lets anyone vote in the primary of either party”

      Hi Mary,
      That’s wrong. In NH a registered independent can register for either party and get that ballot
      on the day of the primary.
      Otherwise, you get the primary ballot for the party that you’re registered for.
      Also, you cannot change your party affiliation on the day of the primary.
      Yesterday I asked about this and was told you had to do that by the end of the prior October.

      Nedd Ludd

      February 10, 2016 at 8:51 am

  4. Congrats on your excellent analysis. If Christie drops out, who does he support? My bet is Jeb. GWB gave Christie a fed prosecutor job and Christie will stay tight with the establishment.

    But maybe Trump has the AG card to play with Christie?

    pat

    February 10, 2016 at 1:11 am

    • If he’s smart, he doesn’t endorse anyone and has a chance for a job no matter who wins. He’d probably be a decent Attorney General.

      jackmcg

      February 10, 2016 at 8:30 am

  5. If this establishes a trend, Trump can choose Kasich as his safe, reliable establishment Republican running mate.

    The people don’t like Hilary. Thirty years of a mendacious public life has left an indelible impression. At this point there is nothing she can do about that.

    Daniel

    February 10, 2016 at 1:54 am

    • In a general, Hillary might attack Trump for being wealthy, and he could say, “I made my money in real estate and TV. Where did you and Bill get your millions, pussy!?”

      Honaker

      February 10, 2016 at 8:04 am

  6. Things are definitely breaking Trump’s way.

    It was wrongly tweeted that Christie is dropping out but he’s going back home “to take a deep breath” — that means he’ll drop out soon, as you predicted.

    This blog focuses almost entirely on the Republican side, but I think that the Democrat side is affecting what goes on in the Republican primaries to an unusual degree because of who Trump is attracting. So it’s great news that Hillary is going full bore Black Lives Matter. That will push more whites into the Trump camp. And what will happen when Hillary destroys Bernie in March? Bernie’s young voters, esp. women, are very passionate, very idealistic. We shouldn’t laugh at them. They are young. They will be so crushed at their guy’s destruction by black power it will affect them for life.

    @Maryk, most of what you say is correct but NH is not really “liberal”. They are not evangelical, and to outside eyes that may make them seem liberal, but they are more paleoconservative than anything else. Hillary was neutralized on the gun issue because most NH-ites are pro-gun. Expect her to hit Bernie hard on the subject in upcoming primaries, because we all know that blacks don’t kill people w/guns, the guns do. He will be very vulnerable on this subject, and many others. I think it’s mostly downhill for him from here. What’s interesting about his win is what it tells us about the state of young white America, especially young women. Class and economic concerns trump feminism. (Pun intended.)

    gothamette

    February 10, 2016 at 7:45 am

    • PS Hillary won 112,000 votes in 2008 in her surprise win. Last night she managed to get….17,000. That is a shocking, shocking loss. As I said I expect she will win because of black support. She will win a pyrrhic victory — if the Republicans nominate someone who will sock it to her with the Black Lives Matter bullshit, because she will surely pivot to moderation the second she gets the nomination. We need a candidate who will call her on her slimy expediency. Kasich is not that man. Only Trump would have the balls to do it.

      gothamette

      February 10, 2016 at 7:51 am

    • Bernie’s young voters, esp. women, are very passionate, very idealistic. We shouldn’t laugh at them. They are young. They will be so crushed at their guy’s destruction by black power it will affect them for life.

      Bernie got bitch slapped off the stage by BLMs months ago – no problem.

      Older White people might think BLMs are obnoxious but younger White America has been schooled to be passive toward black anger.

      Bernie and Hil will compete to see who can talk about “America’s Original Sin” the most. Constant talk about black mothers, dead black children, Evil White Cops and White America’s denial.

      Plenty of White women of all ages, esp the young, will nod their heads in agreement.

      Trump will be seen as an Evil Old White Man waging a War on Women, a War on Immigrants, a War on black mothers and black children, a War on Muslims. He will be portrayed as nothing but a reality show opportunist playing to racial fear and hate and bigotry against all God’s children.

      White women and young people will eat it up. Same with blacks, Jews, latinos, Asians. And many Bush/Kasich/Lindsey Graham Republicans will as well.

      I still think Trump can win because Hillary is beyond belief hideous.

      Rifleman

      February 10, 2016 at 10:10 am

      • http://althouse.blogspot.com/2016/02/hillary-clinton-is-set-to-campaign-with.html

        “Hillary Clinton is set to campaign with Trayvon Martin’s mother and Eric Garner’s mother.”
        And so we turn to South Carolina.

        Rifleman

        February 10, 2016 at 10:32 am

      • I have a friend who has voted straight Democrat tickets his whole life yet is also critical of blacks, especially black crime. I asked him which candidate he likes this year. To my surprise he is a passionate Trump supporter. He asks a lot of people in public what they think of Trump and said that a surprising number of blacks like him, he figures because they know him from TV over the years. So Trump is attracting a very wide tent including some crossover votes from Dems. Isn’t that what the GOP said they wanted? Yet the GOPe has never opposed or been panicked about a candidate like this before.

        This is definitely the most fascinating primary season of my lifetime. So different from the boring scenario the establishment of both parties wanted where Jeb and Hillary would easily cruise to victory.

        Jay Fink

        February 10, 2016 at 2:33 pm


  7. ” A lot of Trump’s voters in NH were independents and Democrats. I don’t think many other states give voters this kind of leeway. Also, NH is a small liberal state. The Republicans there are to the left of Republicans nationally. Trump will need larger and more typically Republican states to prove he can really unite the party.”

    Hi Again Mary,
    I don’t think this is accurate either. People in NH might cross over when one party has an uncontested race and they hope to throw a little sand in the other party’s gears. (I remember one year being tempted to vote for Jesse Jackson to
    ‘help out’ the Democrats with their candidate selection, but I never actually did it.) With two hotly contested races, I think the results here are pretty accurate.

    Republicans in NH are mostly secular traditionalists.
    I wouldn’t describe us a ‘liberal’, but we do tend to be pretty tolerant of most behaviors and lifestyles,
    “as long as you don’t frighten the horses.”

    We have no sales, or income taxes and far less government interference that you find in most places.
    We have lots of guns up here. No permit to purchase required, or for open carry, concealed carry permits are easy to come by and must be issued unless you have a criminal record, or similar.
    We have very, very low crime rates and a well educated, non-diverse. population.
    Mostly it’s still the 1950’s up here, but with internet service.

    I believe that the long Winter acts as a moat to keep out the riff-raff.
    Unlike Florida or California, the weather up here wants to kill you.
    Consequently,you’ve got to be pretty independent and resourceful if you want to be happy up here.

    I know he’s a vulgarian Mary, but no one else running will even try to stop the tidal wave of Third World invaders.
    This is the most important issue at this moment – Surrender the borders and the country will be gone.
    So, ¡Trump 2016!

    Nedd Ludd

    February 10, 2016 at 9:28 am

    • “We have lots of guns up here. No permit to purchase required, or for open carry, concealed carry permits are easy to come by and must be issued unless you have a criminal record, or similar.”

      Wait, what? Lots of guns, easy permitting and a low NAM population leads to very little crime? That’s a thought-crime right there my friend. Don’t let the word out. Folks might start to think that people cause crime, instead of self-acting guns and magical dirt.

      peterike

      February 10, 2016 at 9:39 am

    • Nedd, you seem like a nice guy so I don’t want to insult you. But to me the “Live free or die” motto sounds like “Social Liberalism is so pleasant when each person has 2 acres of land to himself.” As for “tolerance” this generally translates as “Social conservatives can afford more bruises. Let’s do all we can to destroy them except having them carted away by the police.” Tolerance in the original sense is already practiced by most conservatives. I understand how you feel about immigration, but we don’t need Trump for this. And Trump isn’t going to single-handedly determine our immigration policy. He won’t be a dictator in chief. Sorry, but I’m already looking into the Constitution party. It’s either that or vote for Sanders or Clinton to teach the Republicans a lesson.

      Maryk

      February 10, 2016 at 10:10 am

      • “And Trump isn’t going to single-handedly determine our immigration policy. ”

        Besides having a mandate to build a wall, he can single-handedly issue executive orders to require federal agencies to start treating illegal aliens as illegal, and deport any who are discovered. They are already illegal, previous presidents have chosen to not enforce the law.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        February 10, 2016 at 10:25 am

      • They are already illegal, previous presidents have chosen to not enforce the law.

        Operation Wetback

        Rifleman

        February 10, 2016 at 10:35 am

      • Thanks Mary. I try to be a nice guy. No worries about insulting me.

        About Live Free or Die:
        Live Free or Die was a toast sent by Revolutionary War NH General, John Stark,
        to an anniversary reunion of his NH militia men, when Stark was too old to attend personally.

        Stark and his New Hampshire volunteers routed British Gen’l Burgoyne’s Hessians and
        captured over 900 of them at the Battle of Bennington, helping to lead to the defeat of Burgoyne’s entire
        army at Saratoga some weeks later.

        The full toast was “Live Free or Die Boys – Death is not the worst of evils.

        Stark also said (at The Battle of Bennington):
        “Yonder are the Hessians. They were bought for seven pounds and ten pence a man.
        Are you worth more? Prove it.
        Tonight the American flag flies from yonder hill, or Molly Stark sleeps a widow!”
        ― NH Gen’l John Stark

        Stark was one tough, smart guy.
        I fly the Bennington flag in front of my house every day:
        http://www.usflag.org/history/thebenningtonflag.html

        Now to your point:

        I agree that it is easier to tolerate “odd” behavior when it’s not in your face and ‘everyone’ lives on two acres. (NH has less people than the Borough of Queens.
        I grew up in Queens many years ago – That’s why I live up here. Actually, I live on six acres.)

        In no way do I think that social conservatives should be “destroyed”.
        I was simply trying to give you an accurate picture of the general temperment up here.
        It tends towards rugged individualism with an emphasis on individualism,
        though these days we are fighting a losing battle with liberals moving here from both Vermont and Mass
        to take advantage of our lower taxes.

        As to not needing Trump to stop illegal third world immigration:
        I have watched the other cheese-eating-surrender-monkeys in the Republican party repeatedly roll over on this and almost every other issue.
        I have no faith that any other of the Republican candidates won’t do the billionaire donor’s bidding once in office.

        Look at Paul Ryan handing Obama total victory on the budget.
        When Ryan was nominated to be VP with Romney, Ryan was described as a ‘budget hawk’
        The current crop of Republicans are simply enablers for the Democrats.

        All the Best to you MaryK. I enjoy your posts.
        The Lion has a very good group of commenters here.
        I’m waiting to hear from Yakov when he gets back.

        Nedd

        Nedd Ludd

        February 10, 2016 at 3:37 pm

  8. To honor his glorious deed of taking out Rubio, he shall now be known evermore as Cannonball Christie. Arise!

    Glengarry

    February 10, 2016 at 10:27 am

  9. Watching black voters steal the nomination from Bernie is going to be the most beautiful thing ever.

    Otis the Sweaty

    February 10, 2016 at 11:22 am

  10. Why should Christie drop out, he trailed Rubio by only 8k votes and got almost 10% of the electorate. Cmon Christie, we need you to badger Rubio until Super Tuesday.

    Rotten

    February 10, 2016 at 11:42 am

    • Because of his 6th place finish in New Hampshire, Christie wouldn’t be eligible to participate in the next debate.

      Richard

      February 10, 2016 at 12:41 pm

  11. Cruz gave the weakest debate performance of his campaign on Saturday night in NH–barely better than Rubio’s cringe-inducing showing. That certainly did not help him at all in this vote. He came across as “beta” as they come.

    Is he damaged beyond repair? I’m not convinced of that, but one more weak debate like this and he’s finished.

    Martin L.

    February 10, 2016 at 2:30 pm


Comments are closed.

%d bloggers like this: