Lion of the Blogosphere

Another pre-debate analysis

The GOPe believes that Rubio, Bush and Kasich are splitting among themselves the same group of voters, and if only two would drop out, the third would pick up all of the votes and become a challenger to Trump and Cruz. If Rubio wins third place in South Carolina (behind Trump and Cruz), the GOPe will put INTENSE PRESSURE on Bush and Kasich to drop out BEFORE Super Tuesday so that Rubio can fly free. The GOPe is starting to understand that a dominating Trump sweep of Super Tuesday will make it impossible for anyone to catch up to him.

Since everyone on the debate stage knows this, everyone is, once again, going to be gunning for Rubio. For Bush and Kasich, this debate is their LAST CHANCE to depose Rubio. They don’t care about Cruz or Trump. Trump would also like to see Rubio have a bad night to keep the GOPe confused.

Rubio still faces the same problem he faced last debate, which is that he isn’t actually that smart, he just appears smart because he’s very good at using memorized sound bites and 25-second speeches. He has also memorized a lot of policy facts from his stint in Congress, but that doesn’t make him smart. (One problem with the GOPe is that they don’t understand HBD.) Everyone on stage is itching for the opportunity take out Rubio again (except, probably, Cruz who is more focused on Trump). I don’t know if Rubio is up to the challenge. I am sure he has been practicing his debating all week, but that may not be enough to change habits he developed over the last year that have served him so well until the last debate. If Rubio says one more time “Obama knows exactly what he’s doing,” boy is he going to get it.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 13, 2016 at 3:04 pm

Posted in Politics

6 Responses

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  1. Rubio is establishment, but not all his voters are. He is able to pull votes from stupid Christians who are probably more like Cruz than anything else. He’s also popular with older voters who are living in the past and think he seems like a “nice young man”.

    If Rubio dropped out, I’d expect Trump, Carson and Cruz to get as many of his votes as Kasich and Jeb.

    Rubio is more Conservative Inc./Cuckservative/Redstate than Jeb and Kasich who are pure GOPe.

    Otis the Sweaty

    February 13, 2016 at 3:46 pm

  2. One thing left about of this horse race coverage is the Florida primary. Jeb Bush is a former governor of Florida. Rubio is a former Speaker of the Florida House of Reps and a current Senator. They will have no credibility left if they can’t win their home state primary. And only one of them can win.

    Florida is also a winner take all primary, and apparently the idea was that one of the two would be winning alot of, if not most, of the earlier primaries, hover up Florida’s delegates, and be well on the way of securing the nomination.

    In the current situation, if Trump wins Florida he knocks both Bush and Rubio out of the race. It makes sense for Kasich to hang around, by the way, in case this happens in which case he becomes the establishment alternative to Trump by default in the later contests, if Trump hasn’t wrapped everything up by then.

    Bush or Rubio would at least get a block of delegates they could take into a potentially brokered convention if they win Florida, but the other would have no place else to go. The problem for them is that Florida has its primary on March 15th, two weeks after Super Tuesday, and at the same time as the almost as important Illinois primary. Trump might be unstoppable at this point.

    At this point the Bush, Rubio, Kasich,and Cruz campaigns should be coordinating to take on Trump in different states, to make sure he loses enough states in effectively one on one matchups to slow any momentum he has. This is almost impossible to co-ordinate, and the one time it was really done, by the Democratic establishment against Carter in the late 1976 primaries, it failed.


    February 13, 2016 at 3:47 pm

  3. Lion, have you seen recent polls pitting Cruz, Rubio, etc. head to head vs. Trump? The last poll I saw of this nature (a long time ago) showed each of the above beating Trump one-on-one.

    I suspect the result would be a lot closer today, possibly even reversed.

    The answer to that poll (today) would establish whether or not there is a point to raising up a contender against Trump.

    Martin L.

    February 13, 2016 at 4:46 pm

  4. Trump sent his first salvo against Bernie yesterday calling him a Communist.

    My guess is for this debate he’ll again swing towards being ‘presidential’ unless someone throws him off his game.


    February 13, 2016 at 8:12 pm

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