Lion of the Blogosphere

PPP Poll

The PPP poll, which I blogged about last night, is now available online.

There’s a lot of good stuff in here.

Unfavorability ratings:

Cruz 48%
Trump 43%
Rubio 32%

A lot is made of the Trump-haters in the MSM about Trump’s high unfavorable rating, but Cruz is even worse, and Rubio has a pretty high unfavorable rating too. Nothing here points to the establishment wishful thinking that Trump is too unfavorable, relative to the other candidates, to win the most delegates.

3-way race:

If given a choice between only the top-three candidates (which is a likely future scenario), the respondents say:

Trump 40%
Rubio 28%
Cruz 22%

I am not surprised that Rubio is the primary beneficiary of Bush and Kasich dropping out, but I am also not surprised that he doesn’t pick up 100% of their votes. As I said previously predicted in a comment, that Trump and Cruz will also get some of the votes and Rubio still won’t be ahead of Trump.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 16, 2016 at 1:05 pm

Posted in Politics

18 Responses

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  1. And what’s your opinion about Trump saying that :
    1) Irak war was a mistake
    2) Bush lie to american people and the world
    3) 9/11 is Bush fault because he didn’t protect american people.
    It’s even more radical than a Michael Moore stance ….

    Bruno from Paris

    February 16, 2016 at 1:10 pm

    • The way we handled the aftermath of the Iraq war was a huge mistake, and Bush made that mistake.

      Also, Colin Powell convinced me back then that Saddam had WMD, but Bush and Powell had access to top secret intelligence and CIA analysis that I didn’t have; I think they were either stupid in analyzing the data, or intentionally lied because they had other motivations for the war but wanted to build support for it.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      February 16, 2016 at 1:40 pm

    • Trump’s dog-whistling to white nationalists and conspiracy theorists on Twitter is clearly paying off, so I can’t say I’m surprised he’d veer towards 9/11 Trutherism. It turns out most of the Ron Paul faction wasn’t motivated by libertarianism, but by the kooky conspiracy stuff and racial ideas that were always swirling under the surface. His coalition appears to be the majority of the Paul crowd plus nonreligious prole whites. (Yes he won across most demos in NH, but that’s a factor of his overall margin, not any particular appeal to, say, middle-aged women.).

      So his comments might well make tactical sense. I would still be absolutely stunned if that somehow turned out to be a winning coalition in November, especially in the face of the thousands of hours of exposes that will be run on his very public and very crude life all over the media if he clinched the nom. It would be a landslide defeat and he might not win 10 states. I suppose I can’t say for sure that Cruz would do any better, or that Rubio wouldn’t just lose by the Romney margin. I’m not sure what Trump winning gets you, he won’t actually do anything he promises except perhaps funding abortions, but his winning a general election still seems highly unlikely. Some right wing bloggers are saying he puts New York in play, but I think his weakness in the popular vote will be too huge for it to matter if he swings a few marginalized demographics away from the Dems. Minorities aren’t his problem, the Hispanic vote is basically irrelevant to the electoral college, but he’s not going to get the % of whites he needs to win because he is basically toxic to anyone in the middle-class or above. He needs to make some attempt to be at least grudgingly acceptable to white collar suburban college-educated Republicans, or he’ll just never get to the 65% or whatever he needs to win from whites, and the further he goes with this “Bush knew about 9/11” stuff, he’s narrowing his appeal.


      February 16, 2016 at 2:38 pm

      • When did he say Bush knew about 9/11 before hand? He said he ought to have known because he was in charge.

        Lloyd Llewellyn

        February 16, 2016 at 5:37 pm

      • Agreed, cjwynes. Trump’s overall strategy for winning the nomination seems to reflect a cutthroat corporate logic (“we gotta drive the competition out of business!”) that completely fails to appreciate the fact that this election has a Part II as well.

        Trump pulling 40% in a three-way race is not impressive at all. All it shows that a majority of Republican voters steadfastly want a conventional, conservative Republican. Cruz and Rubio hold very similar positions on just about every issue. They are both doctrinaire conservatives, and by historic standard, either one would be one of the most conservative presidential nominees in decades. So much of the drama between them is just exaggerated media nonsense. Ooh, other politicians find Cruz hard to work with, big deal.

        Trump has not unified the Republican base behind a new vision, he has simply badly divided it. He is hoping to eke out the nomination with a narrow plurality win. Or maybe he won’t even get that, and it will go to a brokered convention which will be even more divisive and ruinous for the party.


        February 16, 2016 at 6:19 pm

      • “Trump pulling 40% in a three-way race is not impressive at all.”

        It’s very impressive in SC considering that it beats McCain 2008 and Romney 2012.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        February 16, 2016 at 6:42 pm

      • 9/11 trutherism is the claim that the government either caused 9/11 to happen itself or allowed it to happen purposefully. Trump has made no such claims. He only said he believes that the Bush administration lied about Saddam having WMDs.

        Dank Enlightenment

        February 16, 2016 at 7:10 pm

      • Here are the numbers:

        Iowa: 25.2%
        NH: 37.1%
        SC: 33.2%

        Iowa: 24.5%
        NH: 39.3%
        SC: 27.8%

        Iowa: 24.3%
        NH: 35.3%
        SC: 35% (?)

        Trump is doing exceedingly average as far as primary candidates go. He is hardly running away with this thing. Romney got to 40% the second it became a three-man race in 2012, too.

        If Trump does become the nominee, it seems it will follow the conventional path of the last two GOP losers, both of whom were divisive and unpopular figures within their own party as well.


        February 16, 2016 at 11:06 pm

      • what a bunch of cuck bullshit.

        He appeals just fine to middle class, non conspiritorial whites. Most people on this blog are in that demo.

        The only people who are upset about by what he said about Iraq are people who weren’t supporting him in the first place, i.e. cucks. We don’t need your cuck vote. Go vote for Hillary.

        Otis the Sweaty

        February 16, 2016 at 11:19 pm

      • Trump pulling 40% in a three-way race is not impressive at all.

        More cuck bullshit. In head to head races he beats everybody, that’s all that matters.

        I’m so sick of you cucks. Go vote for Hillary.

        Otis the Sweaty

        February 16, 2016 at 11:21 pm

      • If Trump does become the nominee, it seems it will follow the conventional path of the last two GOP losers, both of whom were divisive and unpopular figures within their own party as well.

        Not true at all. McCain/Romney were GOP hacks, establishment dullards with NO appeal to working class White America or to just any frustrated Americans who feel rightfully that the GOP exists for donors, consultants, graveytrain parasites, corporations and rich people (And yes Otis, Christian religious nutjobs).

        Trump is the alternative many people have been waiting for.


        February 17, 2016 at 2:31 am

    • To me the single best reason to vote for the democratic president is that they’re less likely to get us involved in a pointless war so Trump separating himself from the other candidates on this issue makes me like him more. I don’t know how representative I am of the either the primary or general election voters though.

      Lloyd Llewellyn

      February 16, 2016 at 2:42 pm

  2. Incredible for the great Republican Party. Trump and the two ineligible Cubans. Trump needs to drive a stake through the GOPe once and for all.

    Andrew E.

    February 16, 2016 at 1:14 pm

  3. Whoever put together those questions has a sense of the absurd.

    Q28 In general do you think that whites are a superior race, or not?

    Q29 Do you prefer mustard, tomato, or vinegar based barbecue sauce?


    February 16, 2016 at 1:15 pm

    • Q29 has some interesting results for the “not sure” answer. People who support the weaker candidates (Bush, Carson, Kasich) are about twice as likely to be unsure of their barbecue sauce preference when compared to supporters of the stronger candidates (Trump, Cruz, Rubio). Cruz seems to be losing some mustard voters to Rubio.


      February 17, 2016 at 12:39 am

  4. Lion, when will some mainstream type Republican politicians endorse Trump? Will any sitting governors or US Senators back Trump before it’s all but certain?


    February 16, 2016 at 2:40 pm

  5. More of the traditional base likes Trump than some people want to believe.

    In the 1990s, there were still enough white voters in California for Republicans to win statewide office. Conservatives voted in droves for Gov. Pete Wilson, even though he was a moderate, because Wilson took a stand on immigration. It was obvious to people back then that this was the single most important issue, and they were right. Since then, conservative Californians have been rendered complete political nullities by immigration.

    Hopefully at the national level conservatives will figure this out faster than their Californian counterparts did. For them, it was too little, too late.


    February 16, 2016 at 7:59 pm

    • This is a 1994 anti-illegal immigration campaign ad for Pete Wilson.


      February 16, 2016 at 10:09 pm

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