Lion of the Blogosphere

Who drops out after South Carolina?

If Bush finishes well behind Rubio, even if it’s in fourth place and not fifth place, I think he definitely drops out. Anything but a third-place finish drastically underperforms expectations for the guy who used to be the front-runner and who spent a massive amount of money on his campaign. 6th place in Iowa, 4th place in New Hampshire, and then 4th place in South Carolina, that’s a big loser with no chance of winning. He will capitulate and spend the rest of his life nursing a deep personal hatred for both Donald Trump and Marco Rubio.

Kasich is more interesting. The GOPe is going to want him to drop out so that their Boy Wonder, Rubio, can finally fly free as the undisputed choice of the so-called “establishment lane.” But if Kasich comes in fourth place ahead of Bush, as the latest PPP poll suggests, he is going to very much want to stay in.

He will convince himself that his New Hampshire strategy has paid off, he beat Bush and now has the momentum to pull ahead of Rubio on Super Tuesday. He probably believes his own only-adult-in-the-room shtick and considers Rubio to be one of the non-adults from whom he has to save the Republican Party. Only Kasich can win the general election because Rubio has made himself too extreme on immigration and he’s also too extreme on abortion, having said that he opposes abortion even in cases of rape and incest. Kasich supports “reasonable” exceptions for rape , incest and the life of the mother. Therefore, even if by Kasich staying in the race prevents Rubio from winning the nomination, it doesn’t matter because whomever besides Kasich wins the nomination will lose to Hillary.

Of course, the GOPe will really want Kasich to get the hell out of there before Super Tuesday. It will be interesting to see how that plays out.

* * *

The reasoning above represents Kasich’s thought process. I personally believe that Trump has the best chance of beating Hillary because only Trump can win the prole white vote away from the Democrats, and Trump’s anti-immigration platform helps him win over prole whites.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 16, 2016 at 2:32 pm

Posted in Politics

33 Responses

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  1. But why do you think Trump has soft-pedaled the anti-immigration stuff lately?

    alonzo portfolio

    February 16, 2016 at 2:42 pm

  2. I think also Trump has read Charles Murray three books. This author is very helpfull for a born elite upper-class to understand how regular people live.

    Bruno from Paris

    February 16, 2016 at 3:08 pm

    • It’s not about how “regular people” live, it’s about how they think and Trump already knows that because he has no class. When he talk politics he sounds like a blue collar guy in a bar ranting.


      February 16, 2016 at 10:55 pm

  3. How has Rubio made himself too right wing on immigration? The guy is open borders to the depth of his soul. All he has done is say that he is against amnesty until after the border is secured, a position he will change after the primaries.

    Check out this article from November:


    Anyway, would Bush drop out before FLA? I dunno. Remember they are all counting on a contested convention in which case they are going to want as many delegates as possible for any horse trading. I wouldn’t be surprised if the entire field stays in the race all the way through Cleveland or until Trump wins a majority of the delegates.

    Otis the Sweaty

    February 16, 2016 at 3:08 pm

  4. Kasich may decide to stick around till the Ohio primary, March 15th. I believe the Ohio primary is winner take all, so Kasich might hope to win there.

    If the candidates believe that no one candidate will have enough votes at the convention to win the nomination, then they may want to stick around even though they have no chance of winning themselves, just so they have some delegates that would give them bargaining power at the convention.


    February 16, 2016 at 3:40 pm

  5. I agree that only Trump has a chance to win the general election. Demographics have already made Republican Presidential wins possible only in the most extreme circumstances. Trump has something to offer people who don’t usually vote Republican or even vote at all. None of the other Republican candidates can do that.

    True, Trump may cost some neo con voters like Bill Kristol who would rather see Hillary in office than Trump, but those guys mostly live in the Acela Corridor anyway, and those states are going for the Democrat regardless.

    Mike Street Station

    February 16, 2016 at 3:43 pm

    • Well, Pennsylvania is in the Acela corridor, with a lot of disheartened rednecks in the middle of the state and an increasingly surly tech-oriented middle class in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.

      I know, I know: Every presidential year someone posits the Commonwealth of PA is winnable for a GOP Presidential candidate, and every since Bush I, take one, it is a Democrat blowout. But if Trump can’t do it, nobody can.


      February 16, 2016 at 4:31 pm

      • Pennsylvania is a heavily prole white state. Trump can win it.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        February 16, 2016 at 4:33 pm

      • I am an Immigrant (First generation). Served in the US Military. From PA. Voting for Trump. I do agree though there are a lot of cuckstians here in the middle of the state.

        Naresh Anne

        February 16, 2016 at 7:41 pm

    • There is no neo-con voting bloc. Same for libertarians. These are factions that only exist in the punditsphere.

      I agree with Lion that Trump’s appeal to proles is a huge benefit but he’s also really good a pissing people off and he’s completely two-faced with a flip flop problem way worse than Romney or Kerry ever had. Those attributes may have been no problem in his business where each deal is a fresh start, but politicians don’t usually succeed that way.

      In the next 9 months he’ll have plenty of time to piss off more genuine voting factions. Also, the press might be deeply offended by Trump’s immigration comments but they are also loving the spectacle of him flinging feces all over the Republican nomination process and will save their really intense character assassination for after he gets the nomination and when that happens, there will be truckloads of ammunition.


      February 16, 2016 at 11:10 pm

  6. But if Kasich comes in fourth place ahead of Bush, as the latest PPP poll suggests, he is going to very much want to stay in

    Because Kasich is a hallucinating nutcase.

    The Undiscovered Jew

    February 16, 2016 at 5:42 pm

  7. Carson. I guess it all depends on what his donors say, though.


    February 16, 2016 at 5:54 pm

  8. Florida has almost as many delegates as Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina combined. There is no way a Florida politician would drop out before giving that contest a shot.


    February 16, 2016 at 6:22 pm

    • Good point. It would be howlingly funny if Trump won that state, even by a slim margin. Just coming in first would be an achievement.


      February 16, 2016 at 8:16 pm

    • A youngish candidate from Florida who wants to maximize his future options and knows that a difficult gesture of Republican team spirit will allow him to call in a few favors later on in life – after he has put further behind him, as we would all like to do, his youthful indiscretions – would gladly drop out before giving that contest a shot.

      Rubio 2024

      February 16, 2016 at 9:24 pm

      • I never got a gay vibe from Rubio, so I don’t know if he was arrested for gay-escort sex in Florida (although who the hell knows what people do in private). But if it’s true, and just for amusement, I’d still like to see that bomb dropped on his head at some point before he’s knocked out of the race.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        February 16, 2016 at 11:22 pm

      • The Undiscovered Jew – I was referring to his early Senate career – pro-Democratic votes and pro-Democratic rhetoric – when I used the word indiscretion. Every major candidate for President has had innuendoes thrown against them; in the nature of things, we will mostly never know which are true and which are false. Back in the 50s, when the older crop of politicians grew up, police had more respect for the community – if not for the kids, at least for the parents of the kids – and gave warnings more often. I don’t hold it against Rubio that he grew up in a later time when cops were less considerate and some of them arrested more people than they should have. If Rubio was a kid who should have been given a warning rather than being arrested, that experience might make him a better politician today in the sense that he has a greater dislike for the misuse of power. That would make him more trustworthy as a candidate than quite a few others.

        Rubio 2024

        February 17, 2016 at 1:13 am

      • I was referring to his early Senate career – pro-Democratic votes and pro-Democratic rhetoric – when I used the word indiscretion.

        Very well then. But the rumor he was arrested for some sort of gay sex solicitation is still out there. If there’s truth to (and I don’t know if it is) I’d love for Trump to use it on him.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        February 17, 2016 at 11:00 pm

  9. I just caught a glimpse of CNN and Obama is making a speech saying Trump will never be President.


    February 16, 2016 at 8:15 pm

    • Trump’s response, “You’re lucky I didn’t run last year!” Glorious.

      Sagi Is My Guru

      February 17, 2016 at 8:30 am

    • Ha! Obama knows who the threat is.


      February 17, 2016 at 8:38 am

  10. Trump’s recent attacks on W. are another brilliant tactical move. He is setting himself up for the general election where he can frame it that both Bush and Hillary are warmongers that will continue to send our kids into useless, unjust wars. He just got the ears of more than a few Democrats. There is also a large swath of the moderate and libertarian right that agree that the Bush administration lied about WMDs to serve their own agenda. Sure there are some stupid Christians in South Carolina that are still sniffing W’s jock…but who cares? Those cucks aren’t voting for Trump anyway.

    The pundits just don’t seem to get it. Trump is winning because he simply speaks the truth and as Orwell said in times of universal deceit telling the truth is a revolutionary act!


    February 16, 2016 at 10:10 pm

    • There is also a large swath of the moderate and libertarian right that agree that the Bush administration lied about WMDs to serve their own agenda.

      Libertarians will be delighted with Trump promising to use interrogation methods against terrorists that are worse than water boarding and going after the families of Muslim terrorists.

      The reason Trump is winning on foreign policy is because he’s promising to treat Muslim nations like Putin treated Chechnya: cutting throats indiscriminately, bribing compliant rulers, and no nation building.

      Trump’s Jacksonianism/Putinism is not Buchananism where the second the towers fell, Paddy was on television saying Americans deserved to die for supporting Israel, even though America went to war in 1991 to defend an occupied Muslim state (for good reasons which Buchanan nonsensically opposed) and the rest of the 1990s were wasted trying to give the damned fool Palestinians a state.

      The Undiscovered Jew

      February 16, 2016 at 11:18 pm

      • Most American libertarians are much more concerned about staying out of another war than they are about interrogating terrorists. Many libertarians also secretly harbor alt right sympathies when it comes to political correctness and identity politics. Many of them will vote for Trump despite some of his authoritarian tendencies.


        February 17, 2016 at 6:21 am

      • I disagree with Trump’s enthusiastic embrace of waterboarding and worse (whatever that means) as I happen to consider it torture though I didn’t always and it took much time and consideration for me to change my mind. So I understand if others haven’t yet come to the same conclusion.

        Not that it makes it right, because it doesn’t, but knowing the kinds of things these ISIS monsters are doing in the middle east right now makes Trump’s stance understandable at least. These thugs are raping girls to death in front of their parents, drowning people by the dozens in cages dumped in oceans and we’ve all seen the beheadings. They’re also crucifying Christians in the most gruesome ways (google it if you want but I would take my word for it, believe me). As one example, impaling a man on a cross by forcing the vertical beam through the anus and up and out through the mouth. It’s inhuman really. Trump is no doubt aware of all this and seen the videos and images of the carnage and this is what he has on his mind when he talks about waterboarding ISIS.

        Andrew E.

        February 17, 2016 at 9:42 am

      • Most American libertarians are much more concerned about staying out of another war than they are about interrogating terrorists.

        But Trump wants us to get into a war with Isis. You need to learn the difference between Ron Paul and Andrew Jackson: The latter would have nuked Afghanistan the day after 911 and billed Saudi Arabia for the cost of the ICBMs.

        What exactly is Trump’s foreign policy position? It seems like a totally contradictory mixture of isolationism and total warfare against ISIS.

        He’s a selective interventionist. Which is the best kind; sometimes you should obliterate your enemies and sometimes you should keep your gun powder dry.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        February 17, 2016 at 10:58 pm

    • What exactly is Trump’s foreign policy position? It seems like a totally contradictory mixture of isolationism and total warfare against ISIS.

      Lloyd Llewellyn

      February 17, 2016 at 3:03 pm

  11. If Bush’s super pac hates Trump then Bush staying in the race allows them to blow their remaining money on anti Trump ads with the excuse that they just want Bush to win. Kasich would match Hillary on the experience front and probably do well in a debate with her. Rubio would come off as less experienced, less intelligent and less tough than Hillary. Obviously, Trump is playing a different game and NY,NJ and PA could decide the election if he is nominee. I think Bush thinks he probably already lost the race and that has made him a looser, better candidate.


    February 16, 2016 at 10:40 pm

  12. I actaully think the establishment candidates (Rubio, Bush, even Kasich) will stay in long past the time they would ordinarliy have dropped out, because the establishment wants to deny Trump the 54% of delegates he needs to lock up the nomination on the first ballot. If they can deny him that, they can then use their puppet delegates to put someone else in. They need to split the vote as much as possible to do it, so I’m sure they are offering all sort of inducements (like, for example, the chance to get the nom even if they have nowhere near enough delegates). This is going to go on all spring.


    February 16, 2016 at 11:00 pm

    • I agree. I think the candidates discussed above all stay in at least until Super Tuesday.

      Only Carson drops out.

      Kasich has a real opportunity right now to pick up steam as Bush/Rubio/Carson/Cruz fail to gain traction. He hasn’t been savaged yet. And, unlike Cruz or Rubio, he’s been fully vetted.


      February 17, 2016 at 12:49 pm

      • Kasich is dull as dust, hunched over, appears to have no “oomph” to his manner. He seems oooooold.

        He is open borders, amnesty, we can’t deport people, won’t happen…etc. He appears to be more pro-amnesty than Marco Rubio.

        In other words: he is out of sync with the folks that comprise the Republican electorate.

        He does have a nice way about him (that is common with folks of German ancestry from the Midwest), but his politics are anything but nice to working class folks.

        He’s not going anywhere, except may be back to a FOX TV show.

        FB (Former Beta)

        February 17, 2016 at 1:43 pm

      • Correction: he appears to be part Czech and part Croatian ancestry (Kasich
        sounds like a German name).

        FB (Former Beta)

        February 17, 2016 at 2:07 pm

      • “-ich” is a Slavic name ending.

        Ripple Earthdevil

        February 17, 2016 at 4:33 pm

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