Lion of the Blogosphere

New Quinnipiac University Poll!

Trump 39%
Rubio 19%
Cruz 18%
Kasich 6%
Bush 4%
Carson 4%

Link to poll results

This is a national poll and not a South Carolina poll, but the numbers are very similar to the recent PPP South Carolina poll.

This was a live-interview poll on which Trump does poorly compared to automated polls. Trump’s true support at the voting booths, based on New Hampshire, suggest that the automated polls are more correct and he will outperform the live-interview polls.

Polling took place between 2/10 and 2/15, so only one third of the interviews took place after the South Carolina debate.

The close two-way race for second place obviously benefits Trump because it prevents a single strong alternative candidate from challenging him. I don’t see either Cruz or Rubio dropping out. If these results hold up in the Super Tuesday primaries, Trump will have a commanding lead in delegates plus front-runner momentum which will cause him to win a higher percentage of the vote in future primaries. (The GOPe/MSM probably believe that front-runner momentum won’t benefit Trump for some reason, but that’s illogical wishful thinking because it has always benefited the front-runner and is a consequence of the basic psychological principles of social proof and people wanting to associate themselves with a winner. In fact, we see the momentum effect in this poll. In the February 5th poll before New Hampshire, Trump was only at 31%, and he was at an even lower 28% in December, but the momentum from a big win in New Hampshire has caused his support to skyrocket to 39%.)

Trump’s unfavorable rating is 31% (much lower than it was a few months ago), which is not high enough to prevent him from winning a majority of the delegates.

77% of Republicans think that Trump has a good chance of defeating the Democratic nominee, which is the highest of any Republican candidate. The GOPe/MSM view that Republican primary voters will turn to someone else at the last minute because they won’t vote for someone who is destined to lose to a Democrat doesn’t hold up to actual scrutiny. It’s also interesting to note that 28% of respondents said they would never vote for him, but even some of those respondents obviously believe that Trump has a good chance of defeating the Democratic nominee.

Trump’s highest support comes from “somewhat conservative” and “moderate/liberal” Republicans, indicating that he will have the strongest support from swing voters in the general election and is the best chance for a Republican victory over Hillary or Bernie.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 17, 2016 at 12:02 pm

Posted in Politics

15 Responses

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  1. But don’t you listen to the Pundits?!? As soon as it’s a two-man race, 100% of people not supporting Trump will coalesce around the other option, and Trump is doomed.


    February 17, 2016 at 12:07 pm

    • Because the pundits have been so right about Trump? According to pundits, he would already be out of the race.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      February 17, 2016 at 12:10 pm

      • If you go back to July you can see a column by Jonah Goldberg saying that Trump was dead due to his comments about John McCain. These buffoons actually get paid for their analysis.


        February 17, 2016 at 12:41 pm

  2. He’s up to polling 45% in Nevada, where voters are familiar with the Trump Organization due to the Trump Hotel located Right in Las Vegas that employs a lot of people. Nonetheless, Nevada will be a dogfight for Trump, as Adelson is the State’s Republican kingmaker (Trump won’t take his money and he rumored to be pro Rubio).


    February 17, 2016 at 12:27 pm

    • Trump will underperform because it’s a caucus, but he has such a huge lead in the polls that he will still win the state.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      February 17, 2016 at 12:33 pm

    • Nevada’s Democrat caucus still favors Hillary who enjoys the support of corrupt union muscle. In a caucus that should put her over the top, though it will be close. And if it doesn’t she can always rely on those magic coin tosses from Iowa…

      The Undiscovered Jew

      February 17, 2016 at 10:52 pm

  3. Mailed my absentee ballot for the Florida primary today.

    Trump of course.

    Mike Street Station

    February 17, 2016 at 12:30 pm

  4. “best chance for a Republican victory over Hillary or Bernie”

    Bernie has a 0% chance, and the reason is super delegates. With super delegates, Clinton actually won or tied in New Hampshire, Bernie’s best state.

    Hillary has like 98% of the super delegates, which are about a third of the votes at the convention. Bernie had to win a blowout landslide in New Hampshire just to come out even in New Hampshire on delegates. What are the chances that he blows out every state like this? Exactly nil.

    The only reason Nate Silver doesn’t say the truth about Bernie having statistically zero chance is that he doesn’t want to make all his SWPL friends cry.

    The best case for the most popcorn to flow is if Bernie edges Clinton in the public vote but is actually nuked from orbit in the final delegate count, which is possible.


    February 17, 2016 at 12:40 pm

    • That would be amazing for the GOP. Absolute wreckage.


      February 17, 2016 at 1:10 pm


      Um, there are 712 superdelegates and 4763, 712/4763 = ~15%…many will go to Sanders as his momentum builds.


      February 17, 2016 at 2:27 pm

      • LOL, Herodotus, you are correct that it is not 1/3.

        But it is more complicated than that. Because the Democrats don’t need to follow the rules they impose on everyone else, the concept of one person, one vote does not apply. Not all delegates are the same. Some get only 1/2 a vote, some get more. In 2008 there were 78.5 “unpledged add-on delegates” who don’t hold any official office.

        In 2008, super delegates cast about 20% of the votes. Good luck trying to make sense of it all.

        But the thing is, delegates in the Democrat Primaries are awarded on a proportional basis (not winner-take-all).

        Consider this scenario: Bernie wins the popular vote solidly 53%-47%. With proportionality, he would have approximately 53% of the delegates and Hillary has 47%. Then Hillary wins easily on the 20% super delegates, of which she has 97% of those that have committed (most have already committed).

        In that scenario, Bernie winds up with 42.4 + .6 = 43% and Hillary gets 37.6 + 19.4 = 57%. Hillary by a mile.

        Suppose Bernie gets 60% of the popular vote to Hillary’s 40% (every state a New Hampshire landslide) and that is 80% of the votes. Hillary gets 97% of the remaining 20% super delegates based on current pledge rates.

        In that scenario, Bernie winds up with 48 + .6 = 48.6% and Hillary winds up with 32 + 19.4 = 51.4%. Hillary even wins then.

        You are thinking that the Democratic party wouldn’t allow this. But the Democratic party ARE the super delegates and they are almost all in Hillary’s camp. Why would they change the rules to defeat their candidate? There is no Democrat party outside of the super delegates to act as a neutral adjudicator.


        February 17, 2016 at 4:01 pm

    • Bernie doesn’t have a 0% chance, because Hillary could cough herself to death. Or have a stroke. Legitimately, there is about a 5% chance she dies of natural causes before the primaries are over.


      February 17, 2016 at 4:04 pm

  5. Do you think the superdelegates will override the popular vote?


    February 17, 2016 at 2:48 pm

  6. People need to forget about Bernie. He couldn’t even win the all white IA caucuses.

    Bernie is doing horribly with black voters and his numbers are pretty static. He is doing better with young black voters than older ones but even there he is still losing decisively. He also isn’t that dominant amongst white voters nationally, despite his blowout in NH.

    If he loses NV it is over officially. If he doesn’t lose NV he’ll get crushed in the SEC primary.

    Otis the Sweaty

    February 17, 2016 at 3:09 pm

    • He doesn’t have a killer instinct and he’ll bomb with blacks. Trump was right that Sanders should have hammered HRC on the emails.


      February 17, 2016 at 5:28 pm

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