Lion of the Blogosphere

Bush likely to drop out after South Carolina

On Tuesday I wrote:

If Bush finishes well behind Rubio, even if it’s in fourth place and not fifth place, I think he definitely drops out. Anything but a third-place finish drastically underperforms expectations for the guy who used to be the front-runner and who spent a massive amount of money on his campaign. 6th place in Iowa, 4th place in New Hampshire, and then 4th place in South Carolina, that’s a big loser with no chance of winning. He will capitulate and spend the rest of his life nursing a deep personal hatred for both Donald Trump and Marco Rubio.

Here is some evidence (thanks to commenter “Jesse”) that Bush is indeed going to drop out unless he finishes in third place in South Carolina. Although the Bush campaign officially denies the rumors.

The big suspense lies with Kasich. I think he personally will want to stay in, and because he has been much more frugal with his spending he can afford to stay in, but the GOPe will be screaming at him to drop out so that Rubio, the Boy Wonder, can finally break out on Super Tuesday (although I predict that even with Bush and Kasich gone, Trump still beats Rubio because the anti-Trump vote will split between Rubio and Cruz).

* * *

NY Times article says:

Mr. Bush is fighting for his political life, under increasing pressure from donors and supporters to drop out if he does not place in the top three, or finishes far behind Mr. Rubio.

More evidence that Bush is going to drop out after South Carolina (unless by some miracle he comes in third place).

* * *

And Politico reports that big donors are refusing to give Bush any more money and have told him they want him to drop out if he finishes behind Rubio on Saturday.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 19, 2016 at EDT am

Posted in Politics

18 Responses

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  1. Wait a second…are you saying bringing in Dubya AND Mommy didn’t help? That defies all GOPe logic!

    Mike Street Station

    February 19, 2016 at EDT am

  2. although I predict that even with Bush and Kasich gone, Trump still beats Rubio because the anti-Trump vote will split between Rubio and Cruz

    Aren’t you playing the Nate Silver game here? You are basically implying that everybody who isn’t voting for Trump right now is anti Trump, and polls show that is total bullshit. Most of Bush/Kasich’s support will indeed go to Boy Wonder, but some will go to Trump and some will cause supporters of Bush/Kasich will simply not vote at all.

    I don’t know that there is gonna be much more pressure on Kasich and Jeb to drop out then there already has been. The only way the GOPe can get their man is though a contested convention anyway so having a split field really doesn’t hurt them that much.

    Otis the Sweaty

    February 19, 2016 at EDT am

    • I don’t say that everyone not voting for Trump is anti-Trump, but some are and they will split between Rubio and Cruz.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      February 19, 2016 at EDT am

  3. That GOPe would pick Rubio is proof positive that they are delusional idiots. No one in his right mind can possibly believe that pipsqueak would win a general, not now, not in 2020. If GOPe had any brains, they would unite behind Kasich.

    GOPe = DOPe.

    O/T, I never thought I could be more disturbed by Hillary’s squalid past, but this really bothered me:

    It came out two years ago but I didn’t know about it until a few days ago. I don’t read DB and anyway, I ignore most Hillary-shit, there is so much. But this is very disturbing.


    February 19, 2016 at EDT am

    • The GOPe likes Rubio because he is fully compliant with their agenda. He’s for open borders, amnesty, unbridled free trade and an overly aggressive military. Plus, by nominating him they believe they will pick up more of the Hispanic vote and demonstrate how tolerant and diverse the Republican Party truly is.

      It looks like the GOPe remains clueless about the anger and disgust of tens of millions of people around the country.

      Lewis Medlock

      February 19, 2016 at EDT pm

    • Did you listen to the audio? This woman is clearly a sociopath. Listen to her laugh and chuckle. She doesn’t seem to be taking sadistic pleasure in recalling the case, but you can clearly hear the indifference in her voice and she doesn’t even remember what the rapist’s sentence was.

      I hope Trump never shuts up about her multiple rape problems if he’s up against her in the general election. She’s an evil psycho who’s enabled a serial sexual predator to operate with impunity for longer than I’ve been alive.


      February 19, 2016 at EDT pm

      • Sure I listened to the tape. As usual the dumbass right is criticizing HRC for having taken the case, because they are low IQ and incapable of framing anything rationally. This really bugs me because then smart socios like Hillary can bat down a strawman with total ease.

        She was a court-appointed lawyer, it’s not wrong of her to have taken the case. What I think is noteworthy
        1. discussing this disturbing case at all was inappropriate
        2. with someone not officially involved
        3. when there clearly was an underage victim of a crime (her words about the polygraph indicated she knew client was guilty)
        4. her tone – this was clearly nothing but a feather in her professional cap, she didn’t give a shit about what happened.

        As a non-lawyer, I’m not in a position to speak about the essence of the defense. Apparently she slimed the victim as being a Lolita type — is this legal, with a 12-year old?? I don’t know.

        And that fake southern accent never fails to send me to a special place in hell.


        February 19, 2016 at EDT pm

      • “she slimed the victim as being a Lolita type — is this legal, with a 12-year old?? I don’t know.”

        Most likely. Cases like this are the reason we have rape shield laws. Clinton was not appointed to this case as a public defender; she took it voluntarily at the request of a prosecutor who, for some reason, thought the defendant’s request for a female lawyer was an appropriate one. If I remember correctly, she claimed she was assigned to the case in a book–Living History?–and later clarified that she took it at the request of the prosecutor.

        If I were a criminal defense attorney today, I’d defend someone like this rapist and not feel any guilt over it. If I were a criminal defense attorney today, I wouldn’t be obligated to malign the victim in order to provide my client with the best defense.

        When she took the case, Clinton probably knew that she’d have to attack the victim’s character and that’s where her decision becomes questionable. Maybe she didn’t have much of a choice. Maybe a “request” from the prosecutor was more like an order and she was simply doing her job.

        But who cares? When you listen to that interview, you can clearly hear that she didn’t care about the victim one way or the other and didn’t think twice when she suggested that the little girl was asking for it.


        February 19, 2016 at EDT pm

    • You’ve got to hear that audio, mates.


      February 19, 2016 at EDT pm

  4. Kasich is only on the radar because South Carolina has an open primary. Most D-Party voters will probably skip their primary where Hillary is already a lock due to almost all the delegates being “Super” delegates already on her side, and mosey over to the enemy camp to pick the worst GOP sludge they can get to keep all the GOP voters home on election day. Lets face it, unless Hillary gets indicted or croaks, Sanders is simply going to take the VP spot and be a good little boy anyway. Any differences in policy are so minor you will never see the difference.

    Joshua Sinistar

    February 19, 2016 at EDT am

  5. I think Trump will still get lots of new supporters and mileage from videos like this one:
    From Karl Denninger on Market Ticker this morning:

    Trump Is Right…..
    The Market Ticker ® – Commentary on The Capital Markets

    Nedd Ludd

    February 19, 2016 at EDT am

    • This is a good video. Denninger posted it too. Wow neat. Trump really has forced conservatives to talk about the problem of immigrants destroying Western Civilization. Good, very good.

      robert rhodes

      February 19, 2016 at EDT pm

  6. Marco Rubio recently admitted that his favorite music is EDM (electronic dance music). Could this be further proof of his latent homosexuality?


    February 19, 2016 at EDT pm

  7. Thank God! Send these Bush clowns home!

    Reagan had to make a deal with the party in 1980…and we have been saddled
    With these jackasses since then…wtf?

    FB (Former Beta)

    February 19, 2016 at EDT pm

  8. b….r….u….t….a…l!!!!

    Be sure to hang in there till the very end. The readers not Jeb!


    February 19, 2016 at EDT pm

  9. I think Kasich will drop out as well. He doesn’t have enough of an ego to disobey the elites who will tell him to drop out and endorse Rubio.

    Bilbo Baggins

    February 19, 2016 at EDT pm

  10. This plus the polls in SC and the primary math makes it look a lot more grim for Cruz supporters. The problem is that evangelicals are almost as stupid as libertarians so they always get clobbered by the pros representing special interests.

    Cruz really needs either another Iowa where he does much better and Trump much worse than expected OR for Amnesty Boy to crater. If AB gets 2nd place that would be very bad for Cruz and I’ll have to contemplate whom I hate more: Amnesty Boy or the anti-Reagan.


    February 20, 2016 at EDT pm

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