Lion of the Blogosphere

New state polls! Trump ahead everywhere

Trump ahead in every state polled.

Georgia 32% +9
Massachusetts 50% +34
Vermont 32% +15
North Carolina 36% +18
Michigan 35% +18
Illinois 28% +13

The 50% in Massachusetts is beautiful if you’re a Trump supporter. I’ve always said that his “ceiling” is above 50%. I think he does especially well in Massachusetts because there are no evangelicals but a lot of prole whites.

Unfortunately, these polls don’t account for Trump’s victory in South Carolina and Bush dropping out, or at best they include a stretch of days of which Sunday is only one of the days. There are three factors which may change the results. Good for Trump is that the social proof of winning South Carolina will boost his support. Bad for Trump is that Bush’s supporters could go to Rubio, but we don’t really know if that will happen; they could very well split evenly between Cruz, Rubio, Kasich and Trump, which would actually help Trump and not hurt him. Also bad for Trump is that Rubio also gains social proof from his second-place win and could consolidate some anti-Trump votes from Cruz, Carson, and Kasich.

It’s also unfortunate that there’s no poll for Texas, so we don’t know if Cruz is going to win in his home state. If Cruz does win Texas, he won’t gain any momentum from it, because everyone will say that the only state he can win is his home state. On the other hand, if he loses Texas, it’s hard to see his basis for staying in the race.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 22, 2016 at 9:30 pm

Posted in Politics

44 Responses

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  1. Yes, the 50% in Massachusetts is beautiful. Just what we need. A Republican nominee whose highest vote comes from one of the most liberal states in the country. The important question to ask about Trump is whether he can win almost all the votes of Cruz supporters and Rubio supporters from the primaries. Let’s remember that to win in November, Trump will need a very high percentage of all self-described Republicans to start with as his “base.” I’m not sure Cruz supporters will forgive Trump’s threat to sue Cruz over his eligibility to run for president. I hear now that he’s asking the same question about Rubio – claiming that he’s not a natural born citizen. Trump may alienate so many in the party with his abusive behavior that by the time he gets the nomination it won’t be worth much. He seems to think the party is nothing more than a vehicle for his candidacy.


    February 22, 2016 at 9:45 pm

    • The base hates Hillary way more than they could ever hate Trump, and if Republicans can hold out against affirming a replacement for Scalia, then TrueCons will have a very strong motivation to vote Trump.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      February 22, 2016 at 10:01 pm

      • Of course.

        You’d have to have an insane level of hate for Trump as a Republican to think it’s OK for Hillary to become President instead of Trump with at least two Supreme Court seats open for the next President, relations with Russia a huge issue, immigration, Trade etc.


        February 22, 2016 at 10:30 pm

      • Fuck the TrueCons. We don’t want their votes. They are like WNs: a big deal on the internet but non existent in the real world. Let them vote for Hillary.

        Now the Kasich type Republicans, them we need to bring along if possible. If we can’t then at least we can offer the American people a choice between open borders and American nationalism.

        Otis the Sweaty

        February 22, 2016 at 10:52 pm

      • TrueCons are the 20% who are voting for Cruz.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        February 22, 2016 at 11:48 pm

      • Only a minority of Cruz’s support comes from TruCons. Most of his support comes from stupid Christians who vote Christian identity politics above all. The Stupid Christians are damaging in the primaries but in the general they can be counted on to vote straight ticket R regardless of the candidate.

        TruCons are loud, but their numbers are marginal. And they are stupid. That is what Ike said about the TruCons he was forced to deal with 60 years ago and it remains true today.

        Otis the Sweaty

        February 23, 2016 at 12:38 am

      • TrueCons are a subset of evangelicals.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        February 23, 2016 at 6:24 am

      • Massachusett isn’t considered to be in contention so it’s one of the worst states to be ahead in. As for voting, many conservatives have said they would prefer Clinton to Trump and many more would presumably stay home if those were the two choices.

        Lloyd Llewellyn

        February 23, 2016 at 12:43 am

      • Conservatives won’t vote for a liberal Supreme Court.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        February 23, 2016 at 6:25 am

    • My dad says that Trump is his favorite candidate based on positions. However, he is a Rubio supporter because Rubio is “electable”. Mind-boggling sure, but that’s how old people think.


      February 22, 2016 at 10:06 pm

      • He’s the type of voter who will swing to Trump once he has more social proof.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        February 22, 2016 at 11:45 pm

      • Nah, he’s not the type to be swayed by social proof. He’s going to believe that Rubio was the stronger candidate at least until the day that Trump actually wins the general election. Even then he might say things like “well I’m surprised that Trump pulled it off, must have been a very good year for Republicans; a more moderate candidate would have done even better”.

        He’s stuck in the baby boomer mindset that the electorate is 40% solid D, 40% solid R, and 20% moderate swing voters. According to that theory, the way to win is pick some mild mush who won’t scare away the swing voters and there is no need to pick a candidate that gets the base excited.


        February 23, 2016 at 12:22 am

      • Yes, old people are completely unaware of the new paradigm of the alt. Right populism. They may like Trump, but he scares them with his bellicosity and therefore they think he can’t/shouldn’t be elected.

        It’s the same way old guys are clueless about how completely insane and unmarriagable most women have become.


        February 23, 2016 at 9:34 am

    • What the hell is this Republican base? The one that came out for Romney? Didn’t that just do brilliantly. Trump is replacing you deadbeats with live ammunition in the form of orphaned Democratic whites. Tough that you can’t deal with it.

      That said, I still think that MaryK’s peeps will steal the nomination from Trump in some form or fashion. Downblog I linked to one Marc Ambinder who predicts the E will find someone – not among the current crop, who are all failures – and he will sweep up their delegates and put an end to the Trump insurgency. I agree with him. I’m just gloomy and I think it’s all a fix and that this country is hopeless.


      February 22, 2016 at 11:20 pm

    • As someone who lived in MA for 16 years, I would say the state’s liberal reputation is overrated. Once you get outside the People’s Republic of Cambridge and the SWPL enclaves of Boston, you have lots of blue collar Catholics who lean moderate-liberal on economics but moderate-conservative on social issues, immigration, and national security – in other words classic Reagan Democrats ripe to be converted to Trump Republicans.


      February 23, 2016 at 3:54 am

  2. Don Jr. had a Q&A today in Nevada with some voters. Man, it would be nice to see the Donald address all these topics with same specificity and facility had the son.

    Andrew E.

    February 22, 2016 at 9:52 pm

    • Trumps’s kids are so much better surrogates than Romney’s.


      February 23, 2016 at 5:37 am

  3. Trump has never really gone after Foam Boy.

    Not made an issue of him being Braman’s Bitch, or being a low IQ type who got scammed by Schumer, or his total lack of achievements, his pro Mideast wars, anti-Russia, Republican establishment hackery etc etc.

    Trump can destroy him. It’s just a matter of time, maybe let Kasich and Cruz smack him around first.


    February 22, 2016 at 9:58 pm

  4. It’s also unfortunate that there’s no poll for Texas, so we don’t know if Cruz is going to win in his home state.

    But we do know Megyn Kelly is hot.

    The Undiscovered Jew

    February 22, 2016 at 9:59 pm

    • But we do know Megyn Kelly is hot.

      She’s on Fox, isn’t she?


      February 23, 2016 at 1:17 am

    • Is that a joke? Megyn Kelly is not hot.

      Otis the Sweaty

      February 23, 2016 at 2:13 am

      • Of course she is. She’s a bitch, but bitches are often hot.


        February 23, 2016 at 9:36 am

      • She’s on Fox, isn’t she?

        That’s not a guarantee of anything.

        Is that a joke? Megyn Kelly is not hot.

        She needs to lose the short hair. But with that limitation, she still is.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        February 23, 2016 at 8:09 pm

  5. It’s clear to me that Rubio will be the designated thorn on Trump’s side from here on out. The language he is using “about winning delegates,” not necessarily states, means that the gameplan is still on to challenge Trump at the convention, which would be cataclysmic. I don’t really think that will happen, I think there’s obviously a great deal of delusion behind that notion, just as there has been from the very start, which will benefit Trump and hopefully, finally, leave them bereft of backup plans.

    I want Cruz to stay in the race beyond Texas as he is a good attack dog vs the establishment. I don’t think Cruz will ally himself with Trump, Cruz actually still believes he has a shot, but the more people on the stage the better. I hope he wins Texas for this reason.

    We need them to dilute themselves into irrelevancy so the fight against Clinton proper can begin post haste.

    E. Green

    February 22, 2016 at 10:04 pm

  6. The polls I saw show Cruz well ahead of Trump in Texas and Carson well ahead of Trump in Colorado.


    February 22, 2016 at 10:10 pm

  7. Here’s a funny example of what’s out there. I think it’s genuine, but it almost seems like a put on.

    Here you see what it means to be a Bernie or Hillary supporter – it means you’re not one of “THOSE” people.

    It’s their self image.


    February 23, 2016 at 12:44 am

    • She needs a nice long vacation – in Cologne. Or Calais. Or Rotherham.


      February 23, 2016 at 7:53 am

    • Wow. She is the poster child for why women shouldn’t be allowed to vote. Pure emotion. No reason.

      Great Again

      February 23, 2016 at 9:04 am

  8. Robert

    February 23, 2016 at 1:16 am

  9. Wow, and the huuuuge Giuliani endorsement is going to shake things up, sending small rippling tremors out from Manhattan in every direction (but largely fading out somewhere around Hoboken).


    February 23, 2016 at 1:24 am

  10. The establishment wants Rubio and loathes Cruz, but I’d guess Cruz picks up more Rubio voters than vice-versa. They’re in a serious bind. The moronic Kevin McCarthy announced today that it’s a “two-man race,” meaning Rubio vs. Trump.

    Every election cycle people always talk about how “we could have a brokered election,” yet it never happens. Then again, I thought Trump would implode before Iowa.


    February 23, 2016 at 2:54 am

  11. A lot of older establishment Republicans, including my 90 year old grandparents, think Trump is “scary”. They can’t seem to realize that Rubio is truly far more frightening. Having a trigger happy, debt ridden freshman Senator does not strike me as a good choice. However, there is an old saying that in the primaries Democrats always like to fall in love with a candidate, and Republicans fall in line. I agree with Lion that with increasing social proof they will be swayed to coalesce around Trump. I don’t see how he can be stopped at this point.


    February 23, 2016 at 6:59 am

    • I agree. Who is danger of being for sale than a fellow who has spent his entire adult life supported by a billionaire car dealer? Plus his Wilsonian bluster is vile.


      February 23, 2016 at 10:23 am

  12. A lot of conservatives really, really hate Trump. They seem to hate him more than Democrats. Check out redstate for an example of what I’m talking about. I thought I was a true con type but when I see this Trump hatred it makes me realize I am something completely different. I can not relate to the anti-Trump conservatives in the least.

    Jay Fink

    February 23, 2016 at 8:06 am

    • Yes, I am familiar with them. I still like Cruz but I have grown to hate his supporters.

      TruCons are vermin. We do not need or want their votes.

      TruCon tears are even more satisfying than Progressive tears. Well, that’s maybe going to far. But still, they are truly satisfying.

      Otis the Sweaty

      February 23, 2016 at 8:22 am

      • “TruCons are vermin. We do not need or want their votes.”

        That is not a useful attitude. Any good soldier knows not to shoot at his own side. Dems have much more discipline on this, which is why they can hold together such absurd coalitions.

        In any case, the idea that their votes are not needed is mathematically false.


        February 23, 2016 at 11:57 am

      • We absolutely do not need the votes of the TDSers who are on RedState. They are fanatics and are as numerically marginal as Ron Paul supporters were back in in 2008 and 2012, if not more so.

        Fuck them.

        Otis the Sweaty

        February 23, 2016 at 1:12 pm

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