New state polls! Trump ahead everywhere
Georgia 32% +9
Massachusetts 50% +34
Vermont 32% +15
North Carolina 36% +18
Michigan 35% +18
Illinois 28% +13
The 50% in Massachusetts is beautiful if you’re a Trump supporter. I’ve always said that his “ceiling” is above 50%. I think he does especially well in Massachusetts because there are no evangelicals but a lot of prole whites.
Unfortunately, these polls don’t account for Trump’s victory in South Carolina and Bush dropping out, or at best they include a stretch of days of which Sunday is only one of the days. There are three factors which may change the results. Good for Trump is that the social proof of winning South Carolina will boost his support. Bad for Trump is that Bush’s supporters could go to Rubio, but we don’t really know if that will happen; they could very well split evenly between Cruz, Rubio, Kasich and Trump, which would actually help Trump and not hurt him. Also bad for Trump is that Rubio also gains social proof from his second-place win and could consolidate some anti-Trump votes from Cruz, Carson, and Kasich.
It’s also unfortunate that there’s no poll for Texas, so we don’t know if Cruz is going to win in his home state. If Cruz does win Texas, he won’t gain any momentum from it, because everyone will say that the only state he can win is his home state. On the other hand, if he loses Texas, it’s hard to see his basis for staying in the race.