Lion of the Blogosphere

A quick post-caucus blog post

Before the South Carolina primary, I thought that Trump would win 40%, but it didn’t turn out that way. I blame Trump’s many gaffes the week before the primary, especially his controversial attack on W.

Well finally, Trump has proved that he can win more than 40% of the vote. With the momentum from winning in South Carolina and his dominant win in Nevada (social proof plus voters wanting to associate with a winner), he should be able to hit 40% in some Super Tuesday states, as long as he doesn’t make any mistakes at the debate on Thursday or during the next week.

The only Super Tuesday state that Trump might not be able to win is Cruz’s home state of Texas. But Trump may even be able to win in Texas.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 24, 2016 at 1:00 am

Posted in Politics

41 Responses

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  1. Trump is down 8 pts in Texas, he has no chance there. He should win all the others though.

    NV is tailor made for Trump. Few stupid Christians but lots of immigrant haters. Big win tonight but let’s not get carried away.

    Otis the Sweaty

    February 24, 2016 at 1:05 am

    • Trump is down 8 pts in Texas, he has no chance there.

      Yes he can. Swings in state polls lag national swings. Reuters nationwide polls have Trump moving above 40%. With momentum behind Trump and with Cruz sliding away Trump’s chances of winning Texas are 50-50.

      The Undiscovered Jew

      February 24, 2016 at 1:32 am

      • TUJ: with all do respect, you have been ultra pollyannaish about Trump this entire cycle.

        40% of the party hates his guts and a large chuck of those who like or are neutral to him like Carson, Rubio, Cruz or Kasich better.

        I think Trump is going to win the primaries and win the general, but it isn’t going to be easy and the smart money is on him losing TX by over 5 points. I also think he will lose some weird states like Utah which is filled with stupid Mormons and TruCons. He’ll lose the non-US primaries as well.

        Otis the Sweaty

        February 24, 2016 at 9:56 am

      • I agree that Trump could lose Utah to Rubio.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        February 24, 2016 at 10:01 am

      • I think Trump is going to win the primaries and win the general, but it isn’t going to be easy and the smart money is on him losing TX by over 5 points.

        You were saying?

        https://lionoftheblogosphere.wordpress.com/2016/02/24/trump-tied-with-cruz-in-texas/

        The Undiscovered Jew

        February 24, 2016 at 5:54 pm

  2. Otis, your candidate appears to be headed for the nomination. Isn’t now the time for you to stop calling Christians stupid? Since they aren’t standing in the way of Trump’s victories, why are you still insulting them? Or do you just enjoy doing this for some neurotic reason?

    Maryk

    February 24, 2016 at 1:35 am

    • I have never called Christians stupid. Never.

      I have criticized “stupid Christians”. It is the same as “stupid Iowans”. Not all Iowans are stupid (although most are) and not all Christians are stupid either. Christians are not stupid, most support Trump; stupid Christians, however, ARE stupid. They put Christian identity politics over the interests of white America.

      Otis the Sweaty

      February 24, 2016 at 9:22 am

      • christians are mostly pretty stupid.

        james n.s.w

        February 24, 2016 at 9:57 am

  3. Also Hillary leads Sanders in the March primaries. The Dem primary will be over in a few weeks.

    The Undiscovered Jew

    February 24, 2016 at 1:37 am

    • Hillary being the Dem nominee is also good news for Trump, even if most Dems don’t get it. Sanders doesn’t have the scandal baggage Hillary has. Trump will destroy her. Sanders would stand up better to Trump’s brand of attack politics.

      Peter Akuleyeev

      February 24, 2016 at 11:58 am

  4. He’s spending more time bragging about how many hispanics vote for him than talking about cutting legal immigration. If he just put up a wall but let everyone who wanted to come through the door it would be completely consistent with his stump speeches.

    Lloyd Llewellyn

    February 24, 2016 at 3:52 am

    • Yeah. But I’m not sure whether this indicates insincerity, or whether Donald Trump just talks too much. He should learn to measure his words. (I anticipate the usual crush of Trump idolators telling me to STFU, who am I to give him advice, and so on.)

      I believe he is sincere about immigration. At the beginning of his campaign, when he talked about Kate Steinle, Bill de Blasio threatened him with….something, and Macy’s threatened to cut off his contracts. I was expecting Trump to fold. I mean, at that point, we were all resigned to being flooded with illegals, and no one could speak honestly & openly about illegals, anchor babies, birthright citizenship, etc. Trump doubled down, and said he had lawyers too, and de Blasio and Macy’s shut up.

      I believe he is sincere about immigration. What a President can actually do, I dunno. Executive orders? How? We need a Trump’ed Congress.

      gothamette

      February 24, 2016 at 9:22 am

      • President Trump just needs to enforce the EXISTING LAWS, which can be done by executive order because it’s the President’s constitutional role to execute the laws of Congress.

        Previous administrations, especially Obama but even GWB is guilty, have willfully not enforced the laws. Trump can start enforcing them. No approval from Congress is needed. Congress already enacted the laws.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        February 24, 2016 at 9:27 am

      • Lion: the one good point that Trump skeptics have is that he has repeatedly been shown to be soft on legal immigration which is much more damaging than illegal immigration.

        Even so, I believe the Trump candidacy is mainstreaming anti immigrant sentiment and will open the door for more anti legal immigration stuff down the line.

        Otis the Sweaty

        February 24, 2016 at 9:41 am

      • Being against illegal immigration is the first and NECESSARY step to being against legal immigration.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        February 24, 2016 at 10:01 am

      • Many have observed that his plan is just a weird sort of amnesty in which everyone is briefly deported, then given a clean slate and allowed to come right back.

        Without putting too fine a point on it, a genuine immigration reformer would probably have to be a little bit racist. He would have to make the centerpiece of his reforms legal immigration caps and quotas that treat different source countries differently. Despite much liberal propaganda to the contrary, I don’t think Trump has a racist bone in his body, as Lloyd notes above.

        Illegal immigration has actually gone down in recent years. It’s a safe thing to oppose. And Trump is an egomaniac drawn to the simple, flashy, freudian allure of building something gigantic, as he always done. He’s remarked on a number of occasions that he enjoys having such an easy applause line. I think that’s the beginning and end of his serious engagement with the immigration file.

        Nik

        February 24, 2016 at 11:33 am

      • “Illegal immigration has actually gone down in recent years. It’s a safe thing to oppose.”

        It’s so “safe,” but until Trump everyone thought it was “racist” or something to even talk about deporting illegal immigrants.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        February 24, 2016 at 12:14 pm

      • Lion is right. Post Romney defeat the overton window had gone dramatically to the left, re immigration. Hence the gang of 8 bill.

        Trump has mainstreamed anti illegal immigration again. Even in 2012 it was something Romney endorsed in the primaries but then went mute on. Trump has made stopping illegal immigration his brand.

        He has opened the door to at least some restrictions on legal immigration with his Muslim ban thing.

        Trump is not the answer. He is not our salvation and he never has been. But he is getting us started on the way to the end of open borders, just like Farage in the UK and Le Pen in France.

        Otis the Sweaty

        February 24, 2016 at 12:27 pm

      • “Many have observed that his plan is just a weird sort of amnesty in which everyone is briefly deported, then given a clean slate and allowed to come right back.”

        It’s not really amnesty at all. If they are deported, and we only let the “good ones” back, how do we determine that? The easiest way is simply current law. They can apply for a visa at the embassy. Just like they should have done in the first place.

        Mike Street Station

        February 24, 2016 at 12:43 pm

      • “It’s a safe thing to oppose.”

        That is either delusional, or a flat out lie. Before Trump, NO ONE questioned illegals (ahem, “the undocumented”) anchor babies, birthright citizenship, and “free trade.”

        Now everything’s on the table.

        gothamette

        February 24, 2016 at 8:42 pm

      • “but even GWB is guilty”

        Even GWB?!

        Bush cut workplace enforcement and raids 98% from Clinton’s levels in his first year in office. Dubya was the most pro-illegal president this country has ever had. Worse than Obama, much worse than Clinton.

        Worst. President. Ever. Smart people wanted him impeached.

        owentt

        February 25, 2016 at 5:18 am

    • And that would still be better than all the rest of the candidates. We will have progressed from having to apply pressure to get the wall built, to having to apply pressure to get the door shut.

      MEH 0910

      February 24, 2016 at 9:23 am

      • “It’s so “safe,” but until Trump everyone thought it was “racist” or something to even talk about deporting illegal immigrants.”

        People talked about deporting illegal immigrants all the time. The challenge has always been the sheer logistics of it, which remain just as insurmountable today. Do you really think past Republican pushes for amnesty have been motivated by love for illegals? Some sort of amnesty is simply an easier solution than the alternative.

        I see it more as a decay of common-sense thinking on illegal immigration in favor of mindless populism. First it was “no citizenship for illegals.” Then that became “no legal status for illegals.” Then that became “deport all illegals.” Soon, I guess it will be “shoot all illegals.”

        It’s just like taxes. We’ve gone from “the budget should be balanced” to “all taxation is wrong in all contexts.”

        Nik

        February 24, 2016 at 3:46 pm

      • Nik: why won’t self deportation work? Punish people that employ and lease to illegal immigrants so that it’s no longer economically feasible. Make impossible for illegal immigrants to bank, especially to send money abroad. Offer bounties so that people that give info that results in fine get some of the money. You could even have a system where the US lets them send back their money as part of leaving. And if you’re really humane you can even pay people that have been here a long time money to help them resettle. I don’t think the government has to physically deport a single person although it might make sense to do some high profile deportations to show that we mean business.

        Lloyd Llewellyn

        February 24, 2016 at 7:31 pm

      • Lloyd, I don’t disagree with anything you said. I think encouraging self-deportation is a very rational course of action to pursue. It was completely unreasonable for everyone to run from the idea just because Romney took some flack for floating it (including, it should be remembered, from Donald Trump).

        If you’re an illegal immigrant, your life should be difficult, because you broke the law. If you get caught, you should be deported. We should beef up the border to ensure we have less illegal immigration going forward. But living in a free society, and not a police state, means some clever people will always get to break the law and quietly get away with it.

        Nik

        February 24, 2016 at 7:54 pm

      • Donald Trump criticized Romney’s “self-deportation” plan because it sounded like we were letting the illegals decide whether we still had a country. Thus if the illegals decide not to self-deport we don’t get our country back.

        From Trump’s point of view, deportation is something WE do for ourselves, not something the illegals do for us. And it must be sold this way rhetorically. This is why Trump never uses the term ‘self-deportation’ — and why he criticized Romney for it — even though this immigration policy paper is a step-by-step program for getting illegals to want to leave.

        Americans decide the destiny of America, not illegals. This is how Trump thinks.

        Andrew E.

        February 24, 2016 at 8:14 pm

      • No, Trump criticized Romney’s talk of self-deportation because he thought it was mean. Here’s his quote from 2012:

        “He had a crazy policy of self deportation which was maniacal,” Trump says. “It sounded as bad as it was, and he lost all of the Latino vote,” Trump notes. “He lost the Asian vote. He lost everybody who is inspired to come into this country.”

        http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/Donald-Trump-Ronald-Kessler/2012/11/26/id/465363/

        Nik

        February 24, 2016 at 11:09 pm

  5. Even if Trump loses Texas, it’s hard not to think the nomination is about wrapped up!

    Mike Street Station

    February 24, 2016 at 6:38 am

  6. PJ Media lead story says get behind Trump: https://pjmedia.com/diaryofamadvoter/2016/02/23/the-republican-establishment-needs-to-stop-worrying-and-love-the-donald/

    That seems like a sign of things to come.

    Perturabo

    February 24, 2016 at 8:01 am

    • National Review, Weekly Standard, Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Levin and Beck are all showing no signs of warming up to Trump. Coulter, Ingraham, and Savage have enthusiastically backed him from the beginning. Hannity has been fairly sympathetic.

      Lewis Medlock

      February 24, 2016 at 11:26 am

  7. He got 46% of the Hispanic vote, so not all his supporters are immigrant haters.

    bob sykes

    February 24, 2016 at 8:21 am

    • Plenty of Hispanics hate immigrants. Polls have shown this repeatedly.

      Republican Hispanics hate immigrants just as much as Republican whites.

      Also Hispanics hate Muslims.

      Otis the Sweaty

      February 24, 2016 at 9:23 am

      • I didn’t know Hispanics hate Muslims. I wonder if one reason is lots of Hispanic women like to dress sexy while Muslims value female modesty and covering up women. They are polar opposites in that sense.

        Jay Fink

        February 24, 2016 at 12:27 pm

      • Proles don’t like Muslims. Love of Muslims is a SWPL thing. Assimilated Hispanics tend to behave a lot like prole whites.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        February 24, 2016 at 1:04 pm

      • [hispanics hate muslims]

        There are an estimated 200,000 hispanic converts to islam in the US:

        http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/09/nyregion/09muslims.html?_r=0

        (Why I remember an article from 5 years ago I have no idea.)

        IIRC more than one person associated with recent domestic terror attacks was a hispanic convert, like the guy in San Bernardino.

        slithy toves

        February 24, 2016 at 1:56 pm

      • “here are an estimated 200,000 hispanic converts to islam in the US:”

        If that is true, it’s 50 times the number of Moslems in all of Mexico. Maybe Mexico will build a wall to keep them from coming back.

        http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/articulo/periodismo-de-investigacion/2015/12/12/el-boom-del-islam-en-mexico

        owentt

        February 25, 2016 at 5:25 am

    • This is nothing to sneeze at, particularly when they had two options to vote along ethnic lines.

      slithy toves

      February 24, 2016 at 1:57 pm

      • From what I understand different Hispanic subgroups don’t especially like each other Mexicans wouldn’t get that excited at voting for a Cuban.

        I think the main reason Trump does well among Hispanics (which stuns the pundits) is that assimilated Hispanics tend not to be big fans of new immigrants. I have heard young, English speaking Mexican-Americans call the immigrants crossing the border “dirty Mexicans”.

        Jay Fink

        February 24, 2016 at 2:48 pm

    • There has got to be a substantial proportion of hispanics who identify as white, just want to assimilate and live up to the standards of mainstream white respectability, and detest the whole hispanic/latino identity and category. One of the things i hope Trump does is get rid of all the hispanics by just getting rid of the category.

      Lloyd Llewellyn

      February 24, 2016 at 7:34 pm


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