Lion of the Blogosphere

Quick post-debate analysis

People seem to think that Rubio had a good debate. It certainly wasn’t horrible like his New Hampshire performance, but I think it’s too little too late.

The first forty minutes of the debate spent talking about immigration benefits Trump no matter what was said. Everyone knows Trump is the strongest candidate on immigration. It’s why the media hates him so much.

CNN completely dissed Kasich and Carson who barely had any chance to speak and the cameras most of the time only showed Rubio, Trump and Cruz on the stage.

The feeling you get from watching the debate is that Trump is the leader and everyone else knows it, and like the immigration issue, this helps Trump regardless of what is actually said.

My conclusion is that Trump just needed to not have a bad debate in order to retain his momentum and sweep Super Tuesday (except for Texas), and Trump did that. Nothing bad happened. Trump threw out some personal insults, but that is what he has done every debate. We are now used to it. It’s not a negative for Trump anymore, it just hurts the guys he insults.

Also, either the audience was a lot friendlier to Trump this debate, or Trump didn’t say anything unexpected that would cause establishment Republicans to boo him. Not sure which is the case.

* * *

The new Bloomberg poll shows that Trump will sweep Super Tuesday (except probably for Texas) because the anti-Trump vote is split between Rubio and Cruz. If everyone dropped out except for Rubio, the same poll shows it would be a lot closer with Trump having only a four point lead. But of course, the other candidates are NOT going to drop out. At least not until after Super Tuesday, at which time it will be too late.

Trump is actually weakest in the South. Trump is strongest in blue states where Republican voters are predominantly non-evangelical prole whites (because the college-educated whites in blue states are almost all Democrats and they don’t vote in the Republican primary).

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 25, 2016 at 11:03 pm

Posted in Politics

65 Responses

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  1. Both Rubio and Cruz have realized that they can get more talk time if they trash Trump. There was a lot of Trump trashing during this one.


    February 25, 2016 at 11:14 pm

  2. People seem to think that Rubio had a good debate. It certainly wasn’t horrible like his New Hampshire performance, but I think it’s too little too late.

    Trump seemed rattled at points but it wasn’t decisive enough to change Trump’s momentum significantly.

    It also means Trump will now go Christie on Rubio 24/7 without Rubio having succeeded in knocking him out as the frontrunner.

    Trump should change the topic from tax returns by demanding Rubio answer rumors about his homosexuality. He should request Rubio release more police documentation about his arrest in a park where he supposedly was having gay sex with two other men. Let’s see how eager he is to release those records.

    What else is known publicly about Rubio’s gayness that could be used? And how is this connected to ‘foam’?

    The Undiscovered Jew

    February 25, 2016 at 11:29 pm

    • Rubio isn’t gay. He just had to work his way through college. As a handsome twink, he found lucrative work dancing shirtless at gay events and hustling with wealthy older gay men. But he was never gay for free.

      We should all respect the hard work he had to do to get through school and pay his own way. He sure did a lot more work back then than he has in the Senate.


      February 26, 2016 at 12:21 am

      • Proposing a rent boy prostitute for president would admittedly be a historic first.


        February 26, 2016 at 4:28 am

      • he found lucrative work dancing shirtless at gay events and hustling with wealthy older gay men.

        Uhhhhh yeah I don’t think the average American is gonna call that “not gay”.

        Proposing a rent boy prostitute for president would admittedly be a historic first.



        February 26, 2016 at 9:39 am

      • What he hell does being have to do with being president of the United States?


        February 26, 2016 at 9:54 am

      • What the hell does being gay have to do with being president of the United States?


        February 26, 2016 at 11:25 am

      • “Rubio isn’t gay. He just had to work his way through college.”

        No man with any self-respect can be a rent boy for fudgepackers. It’s completely degrading. .

        Lewis Medlock

        February 26, 2016 at 11:56 am

      • “Gay for pay” does not mean “not gay,” it means gay and a whore.


        February 26, 2016 at 3:23 pm

    • Trump should change the topic from tax returns by demanding Rubio answer rumors about his homosexuality. He should request Rubio release more police documentation about his arrest in a park where he supposedly was having gay sex with two other men.

      Not a winning strategy against someone as weak as Rubio. It could offend a few in the center, and anyone it would gain on the right will certainly be voting for Trump in the general election anyway when faced with the prospect of Bernillary.


      February 26, 2016 at 12:39 am

  3. Yeah, the betting odds have gone from Trump being just better than twice as likely to be president than Rubio, to just worse than twice as likely to be president than Rubio. In other words, Rubio didn’t bomb, Trump didn’t bomb, and that was a little bit better for Rubio than for Trump, but not enough to make any difference on where this train is going.


    February 25, 2016 at 11:29 pm

  4. Go on the attack about Rubio’s closeted lifestyle. That will put him on the defensive and wipe Trump’s tax returns off the front pages.

    The Undiscovered Jew

    February 25, 2016 at 11:30 pm

    • I can’t imagine anything that would cause Trump more problems than going after Rubio for alleged homosexuality. If Rubio really is gay or bi he surely won’t admit it. Then Trump will look like he’s smearing Rubio. And the primary voters might resent Trump for making the party look homophobic and appearing to validate the MSM”s view of Republicans as bigots. Remember that when Republicans speak out against gay rights they argue against special rights for gays. No one advocates that gays be subjected to job and housing discrimination. Most people on the right are not really anti-gay, just against creating special protections for gays.


      February 25, 2016 at 11:46 pm

      • How many gay people are voting for Trump?


        February 26, 2016 at 9:10 pm

      • I think Trump will win the white blue-collar gay vote.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        February 26, 2016 at 9:13 pm

    • No. The Supreme Kourt declared the sodomite deathstyle a beautiful and wonderful institution that SHALL BE celebrated at gunpoint however long Amurica lasts, and at this point not even hard-right Republicucks want to be thought of as homophobic [sic], the same way every White Republicuck will literally mess his pants if someone somewhere says he might be racist [sic].


      February 26, 2016 at 8:50 am

  5. Trump should’ve told that fast talking little beaner to shut the fuck up.

    The idea of Rubio sticking around the Senate and/or making millions as a “consultant” and/or running for President again makes me sick.


    February 25, 2016 at 11:31 pm

    • And he also should’ve told that beaner female reporter to shut the fuck up.

      According to that bitch, every decision in America has to be centered around the direct interests of “hispanics” to the detriment of everybody else. Where’s the liberal outrage over racism/ethnocentrism?


      February 25, 2016 at 11:43 pm

  6. all the angles that can be used to CRUSH rubio:


    February 25, 2016 at 11:49 pm

  7. lion, 2 links for you:

    muslim immigrant rapes italian woman in broad daylight, truly shocking:

    merkel throws away a german flag (!!!):


    February 25, 2016 at 11:50 pm

    • I love the xoxohth threads.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      February 25, 2016 at 11:56 pm

      • It’s my favorite forum.


        February 26, 2016 at 12:00 am

      • Can you advise on how to open the Xoxohth content? Does it require an RSS app or something?


        February 26, 2016 at 12:43 am

  8. The thing that is missed in the whole health insurance debate is that a persons health or a families health is not an insurable risk, and in the future it will be even less of an insurable risk.

    If you and everyone in your family is perfectly healthy, then sure, insurance companies today would be happy to write health insurance for your family. If someone in your family is seriously ill, then a health insurance company would not write insurance at any price before Obamacare. Now most states will not let the insurance companies cancel your policy or raise the price by 100x, but that does not mean they have to give you good service on your claims.

    With advances in genetic science, in the near future they will be able to predict your likely-hood of developing cancer and many other health conditions. Your genes may make you un-insureable from birth.

    The only reason health insurance works in the USA is that most people don’t buy health insurance for their families. Their employer buys health insurance for all of the employee’s families. The health insurance company has to come up with a price to cover all the employees. Some have seriously ill family members, but most do not. The health of all the employees becomes an insurable risk.

    Obamacare is a different mechanism for forming pools of people that become insurable risks for heath insurance.

    Republicans want people to self-insure their families or buy individual family health insurance and that simply will never not work. Individual or family health is not an insurable risk. Even catastrophic health insurance will not be available to families that have someone already seriously ill. High risk pools don’t work either. They were tried in the transition to Obamacare, and they are very expensive for the people forced to use them, they still require big government subsidies and they could still not meet the demand of all the people that wanted them.

    Republicans, who claim to be the party of states rights, also want to take away from the states the right to regulate their own health insurance market by allowing interstate sales of health insurance. (By the way, Obamacare did not take away from states the right to regulate their health insurance market. It only sets some basic standards. States still regulate the policies sold in their states.) What will that do? All the health insurance companies will shop the 50 states for the state that will promise the least regulation of health insurance and the only policies available in all 50 states will be regulate by that state. Polices will be cheaper, because they will not cover very much. If you have a dispute with your health insurance company, you can no longer go to your state insurance department. You will have to go to the insurance department in whatever state promised the least regulation.

    Obamacare is the best Republican health insurance plan. It originated with the Heritage Foundation and Mitt Romney implemented it in Mass. Republicans are just blinded by their hatred on Obama.


    February 26, 2016 at 12:09 am

    • That’s why Trump is having such trouble explaining how he’s going to reform Obamacare rather than repealing it. They were accusing him on stage tonight of being secretly pro-Obamacare because he just wants the insurance companies to be able to compete and operate efficiently instead of throwing the whole idea of universal care out.

      And it’s true — Trump knows if he’s president he’ll have to be the responsible one and defend the basic principles Obamacare is built on while he tries to improve it. I expect there might be a veto involved if the Republicans manage to control the Senate. (They will control the House throughout Trump’s presidency, but the Senate is tilted against them for the 2017-2018 congress.)


      February 26, 2016 at 12:28 am

    • Enforce anti-monopoly/anti-trust and consumer protection laws against medical providers and the drug companies. Allow re-importation of drugs from outside the country to arbitrage prices worldwide. Costs of health care will plummet 80% (private and medicare/medicaid). Suddenly we’ll see the insurance companies start to play ball.

      Andrew E.

      February 26, 2016 at 12:59 am

    • This is perhaps the most cogent and honest explanation of how health insurance works and why the Republican Party would make healthcare far worse than it was before Obamacare was even a twinkle in Mitt Romney’s eye.

      Not only will insurance companies shop around (and lobby) for the weakest regulatory state to sell out of, but it will force wronged claimants into federal court to address disputes. Moreover it’s already legal to buy insurance across state lines, but individual states themselves don’t allow it because they reserve the right to regulate the industry. So the president can’t really do anything until congress makes it illegal for states to regulate the insurance companies operating in the state, which of course the states would never even allow and is also unconstitutional.

      So, in short, Trump’s plan, if it can be called that, is pretty dumb.


      February 26, 2016 at 1:21 am

    • Health insurance doesn’t work at all in the US if you consider costs and safety rather than just coverage. You’re right that Trump and many of the commentors here are deeply misguided when they say that more competition and less regulation is the answer.

      We need utility style price controls and very strict oversight for safety.

      Lloyd Llewellyn

      February 26, 2016 at 3:44 am

    • Sorry, Obamacare solves nothing. Not containing costs. Not even insuring the uninsured. Well, to be fair it might solve the problem of men previously not paying for contraceptive pills.


      February 26, 2016 at 4:45 am

    • That’s very true and I’m glad that you shed the light on this tough reality. I was unable to buy insurance in 1985 because of my wife’s rheumatic fever. Nobody would insure us. Nobody. I could go on Medicaid because I was getting paid in cash, but I hated Medicaid and I wanted access to the best doctors. So what did I do? I found a guy who put me on the Blue Cross and Blue Shield group plan in his company. I’m forever grateful to him. I stayed on that plan until I got a job on Wall Street. I’m telling you this story mates, because many of you seem to be seriously disconnected from reality. Bottom line is that as they say: you’ve got to do what you’ve got to do. Was it insurance fraud? Sure. Do I care? No. Would I do it again? Sure. I would so it for myself or a fellow man because we have to live and prosper. Are we supposed to die because we are uninsurable? Hey, moralists, come out and tell us what you think!


      February 26, 2016 at 7:40 am

      • Since EMTALA passed under Reagan, we don’t let people die, we just let them lose their life savings and go bankrupt as a result of the medical care.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        February 26, 2016 at 8:21 am

      • EMTALA requires hospital emergency rooms to treat patients regardless of their ability to pay. It is a huge unfunded mandate. In most places cities, counties and/or states pay hospitals a little for treating patients that cannot pay, but not enough to cover the costs.

        Today many privately owned hospitals simply don’t have emergency rooms any longer so they don’t have to provide free medical services to the poor.

        Obamacare is an attempt to fund healthcare for the poor, rather than expecting hospital emergency rooms to be free healthcare clinics.

        If Obamacare is repealed, expect to see even more hospital emergency rooms close.


        February 26, 2016 at 9:55 am

      • One of the ultimate solutions to health care for the poor is having fewer poor people. Immigration — there’s that word again. Also, better jobs. Both are cornerstones of Trump’s campaign.

        Andrew E.

        February 26, 2016 at 11:07 am

  9. OT:

    See 37:15

    “Science students are too valuable to sacrifice”. It seems like that STEM was also highly valued then, even relative to other university students.


    February 26, 2016 at 12:25 am

  10. Rubio is right that Trump can’t dodge the tax issue forever, and could be a major liability against Clinton in the general election. But his own spotty financial background is perhaps worse, so that’s why it has taken him so long for his testicles to finally descend and attack Trump.

    At this late point though, I don’t think anything will alter the dynamic heading into Super Tuesday and the fact that Rubio’s camp is gaming out a contested convention is telling. Rubio’s ceiling is solidifying in some respects, and he shows no signs of breaking out. If he wins zero states on Tuesday, it’s almost impossible to see how the establishment can artificially prop up his campaign without either completely alienating Trump supporters permanently (were Rubio to be the nominee), or mortally wounding nominee Trump heading into the general. They will never back Donald until it’s too late though, so I don’t see them giving up on Rubio, which means the party will cleave and have to be remade in Trump’s image, with a different coalition backing a new GOP.

    Trump’s candidacy is a full-fledged phenomenon at this point, and snuffing that out by underhanded means would absolutely doom the party. It has a chance at a new life with Trump.


    February 26, 2016 at 12:31 am

    • Hillary is as dirty as they get. Let’s have a frank discussion about peddling influence in Washington through the Clinton Global Foundation.


      February 26, 2016 at 4:37 am

  11. cruz was right about trump flip-flopping hugely on libya, this is really really bad. trump’s video supporting libya invasion is here (1 minute long):

    trump is an idiot and a liar

    what a bloviating blowhard

    but i am still voting for him. rubio is 100% open borders and cruz is too unlikeable and unelectable

    so you have to gamble and hope that trump doesn’t change his position tomorrow

    sad but true


    February 26, 2016 at 12:40 am

    • we need to get trump on maury povich and ask him about libya…”Our test results determined…that was a lie”


      But you’re right he’s still better than the cuban worms.


      February 26, 2016 at 12:49 am

    • It is absolutely insane to say Rubio is “open borders” unless words have no meaning.


      February 26, 2016 at 2:18 am

    • I have about the same feelings as you rfi2


      February 26, 2016 at 4:46 am

    • Trump is still the best of a bad lot though.

      Lloyd Llewellyn

      February 26, 2016 at 6:36 am

    • No politician is perfect. Only fringe parties like the Libertarian party or the Communists can run “ideologically perfect” candidates, and you can see where that gets them.Trump has plenty of flaws, but he seems to me to have a little more integrity than most pols.

      Peter Akuleyev

      February 26, 2016 at 7:02 am

    • I’d rather Trump had not said this but there are a number of things to say here. First, Trump’s rationale was for humanitarian purposes, it was not so the Libyan people could properly self-actualize in a Western-style democracy. Also, the carnage in Libya he’s referring to was brought about by Clinton’s State Department (ie. funding rebels through back channels, arming the Muslim Brotherhood via Benghazi) which forced Qaddafi’s hand to get ruthless with the people who were suddenly opposing him. Clinton and Obama fomented the violence to force Qaddafi’s hand and create the proximate conditions for the US to go in.

      Trump would not have been aware of any of this. None of this came out until after Benghazi fell when the Islamic radicals funded and armed but the State Department/CIA finally got out of their control.

      Andrew E.

      February 26, 2016 at 8:54 am

    • I don’t think it’s surprising or bad for someone – especially someone who wasn’t in government – to change their attitude about something like Libya based on the outcomes. Trump wouldn’t have had access to the information that Obama and Hillary had.

      By the way, I was always against the Libya/Eqypt stuff because I knew the “Arab Spring” was BS. Liberals thought it was the rising tide of inevitable liberalism – ridiculous! They also think the talk of Benghazi is empty conservative propaganda. They are so willfully blind. Our ambassador was was killed and his boss told us racist filmmakers were to blame. It boggles the mind that this does not disqualify her candidacy. She is despicable.


      February 26, 2016 at 9:40 am

  12. Good analysis by Yglesias here.


    February 26, 2016 at 12:47 am

    • Yglesias has blocked you? Why? You are polite and use your own name. I could understand why he would block me (foul-mouthed, using a screen name) but not you.


      February 26, 2016 at 12:49 pm

  13. OT: Highly paid Wall street analysts in the sites of job killing robot technology.

    A tingle ran up my leg reading this story.


    February 26, 2016 at 1:00 am

  14. Just thought of this. Is it strategically better for Trump to lose Texas by maybe 5 or so points to Cruz? That would almost surely keep Cruz in the race and keep dividing the anti-Trump votes between him and Rubio. Otherwise, if Rubio wins winner-take-all Florida (and Kasich does the same in OH), then Rubio becomes very dangerous very fast if Cruz is out.


    February 26, 2016 at 4:51 am

  15. The Bloomberg survey was interesting. Trump seems to be regarded as the most trustworthy candidate when people are asked concrete questions, but gets a less favorable rating overall. Looking good. Cruz appears to have slid into third place in this poll, but he’s not yugely behind Rubio.


    February 26, 2016 at 4:54 am

  16. The Cucks at RedState are declaring victory. I don’t have a problem with them thinking that Trump lost, Trump is a terrible debater, but they seriously think that this is the beginning of the end of Trump and is going to hurt him on Super Tuesday.

    The delusion of the TrueCons is amazing. Trump’s greatest accomplishment is mainstreaming anti immigrant policies, but his next greatest achievement will be the destruction of the American conservative movement.

    Otis the Sweaty

    February 26, 2016 at 4:58 am

    • “his next greatest achievement will be the destruction of the American conservative movement”

      I’m glad you’re finally admitting it. But what makes you think that the people in this movement will let Trump destroy something they’ve worked so hard for during much of their lives? The Trump phenomenon is trendy now. But trends don’t necessarily indicate long-term structural change in politics. Donald the magnificent won’t be an “outsider” once he wins the presidency, and his failures as president are likely to receive even less sympathy from Republican voters due to his wealth and the prior membership in the American business elite.


      February 26, 2016 at 8:40 am

      • MaryK: you won’t “let” it happen any more than the Germans “let” the Soviets take Berlin in 1945. But it’s going to happen.

        If it makes you feel any better, it is only temporary. Once we get rid of the immigrants, conservatism will be a viable political ideology again.

        Otis the Sweaty

        February 26, 2016 at 8:45 am

      • Otis, I like you, but sometimes you forget that Donald Trump is not going to be a dictator. Comparing him to the former Soviet Union makes little sense (what is he going to do? Release ICBMs on conservative think-tanks?) And if Republican party voters turn against him he’ll have two parties working against him as president and won’t win a second term. Even in winning the presidency, his powers come with limitations. Unless you want to claim divinity for him.


        February 26, 2016 at 9:03 am

      • Patriotism and cultural nationalism are viable ideologies for this country, nothing else. The first question that needs to be asked and a answered: ‘Is it good for America?’


        February 26, 2016 at 9:06 am

      • Hardcore TrueCons will vote for Hillary or not vote. But they are similar in numbers to the PUMA’s were in 2008, that is to say, “marginal”.

        The conservative movement will still exist, but it will be confined to think tanks, RedState and Glenn Beck because it is simply electorally irrelevant after 40 years of 3rd world immigration. It will no longer be in control of the Republican party.

        Trump will get rid of the immigrants. After that happens conservatism will again have the opportunity to regain control of the Republican party, but not before. Conservatism is no longer appealing to the mass of Republican voters because most of us are more concerned about the ongoing invasion of foreigners than we are with abortion and tax cuts for billionaires.

        Otis the Sweaty

        February 26, 2016 at 9:27 am

      • The “conservative movement” is a syndicate for it’s own inner circle of government, Wall Street, and K-street.. It has done less than nothing for the people who have been duped into voting for it by false promises of namely CLOSING THE DAMN BORDER.

        The only people who still believe in the movement that never moves are rich insiders, stupid Christians, and stupid “Constitutionalists.”

        It’s a total fraud and deserves to die.


        February 26, 2016 at 9:43 am

      • I suspect a lot of white people are drawn to conservatism and libertarianism because we instinctevely realize the government does not work for us, so let’s not have it work for anybody.


        February 26, 2016 at 9:17 pm

  17. Another work place mass shooting. Beta rage? The shooter looks menacing but not beta. Must be some other trigger. What could it be?

    Miami Herald, 02/25/16 – Suspected shooter at Kansas manufacturing plant has South Florida ties

    Cedric Ford, 38, went on a shooting spree at several locations near Excel Industries, which manufactures lawn mower products, the Wichita Eagle reported. Ford has criminal history — including carrying a concealed weapon and burglaries in Miami-Dade and Broward counties dating back to 1996, according to court reports. Records show he lived in what is now Miami Gardens from 1997-2002…

    E. Rekshun

    February 26, 2016 at 5:58 am

    • Thank Arceus is he is not a Marxist-Leninist.


      February 26, 2016 at 9:32 am

  18. The new Bloomberg poll shows that Trump will sweep Super Tuesday (except probably for Texas) because the anti-Trump vote is split between Rubio and Cruz. If everyone dropped out except for Rubio, the same poll shows it would be a lot closer with Trump having only a four point lead.

    If he can’t unite his own party what does that mean for the general election?

    Lloyd Llewellyn

    February 26, 2016 at 6:14 am

    • Just because the election would be close doesn’t make things very different than in past elections. No presidential candidate ever sweeps all 50 states.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      February 26, 2016 at 8:14 am

  19. “If everyone dropped out except for Rubio, the same poll shows it would be a lot closer with Trump having only a four point lead.”

    Which is why I want Rubio in until at least Super Tuesday. I want the voting in Florida to show just how badly Rubio gets beaten in his home state by Trump.

    Mike Street Station

    February 26, 2016 at 7:28 am

  20. Trump had a pretty awful debate. He is remarkably thin skinned, particularly when he starts getting hammered. Rubio owned him more than a few times and all of the screaming made him look very un-presidential.

    I’m glad this happened now because he will have to up his game for debates with Hillary. She is not going to sit and let him get away with vague sound bytes and tired jabs about his dominance in the polls (he won’t dominate Hillary in the polls).

    Trump does poorly with late deciders and this debate performance will definitely hurt him with that group. But as with the debate before SC, he has a sufficient cushion to carry him through much of the statse on Super Tuesday.


    February 26, 2016 at 8:38 am

    • Rubio leveled a lot of good, and frankly funny insults against Trump, but the stupid audience was often too loud to fully hear them. Cruz was fantastic, I thought, pressing Trump very hard with simple questions in a lawyerly fashion.

      They both did their best to expose him as a fraud and a scam artist, though Cruz probably spent too much time overall with the “bad conservative” stuff which I don’t think is that effective. I loved Rubio taking him on for Trump University, which is truly one of Trump’s most brazen and disgusting scams, and cringe-inducingly lame to boot (as Rubio noted, upon “graduating” you get your photo taken with a cardboard cutout of the Donald). They should have started debating him this way ages ago. Trump can withstand a lot, but he cannot handle people rejecting his self-constructed mythology about himself.


      February 26, 2016 at 10:08 am

  21. Too late, Mr. Roboto! That ship has SAILED!!!! Can’t wait to see you lose big time in Florida! LOL!

    Baldassano Benjamin

    February 26, 2016 at 1:00 pm

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